My take on our QB search

Originally posted by fryet:

Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Realistically, who hasn't at some time experimented with pot? And if you haven't . . . get a life.

I have never smoked pot, and am quite happy with my life.

That's cool. What I should have said was "And if you haven't, but are going to be all righteous and judgemental about it, etc., etc. But of course: Where ignorance is bliss . . .

I really don't understand why webzoners are focused on the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There hasn't been a single QB in the last 10 drafts drafted in the 3rd who has led a team to the playoffs.

Outside of Tarvaris Jackson (who might not even be the Vikings QB), the only one who has from the 2nd was picked #1 at the patriot's current spot, and we all know who that man is.

You have equal odds of getting a playoff QB who's undrafted (Romo) or from the 6th round (Matt Cassel).

Why reach for a QB then when someone like Harbaugh gives higher grades to people that end up falling anyway?

Originally posted by Eskendale:
I really don't understand why webzoners are focused on the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There hasn't been a single QB in the last 10 drafts drafted in the 3rd who has led a team to the playoffs.

Outside of Tarvaris Jackson (who might not even be the Vikings QB), the only one who has from the 2nd was picked #1 at the patriot's current spot, and we all know who that man is.

You have equal odds of getting a playoff QB who's undrafted (Romo) or from the 6th round (Matt Cassel).

Why reach for a QB then when someone like Harbaugh gives higher grades to people that end up falling anyway?

What are you saying?

Originally posted by PTulini:

Originally posted by Eskendale:
I really don't understand why webzoners are focused on the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There hasn't been a single QB in the last 10 drafts drafted in the 3rd who has led a team to the playoffs.

Outside of Tarvaris Jackson (who might not even be the Vikings QB), the only one who has from the 2nd was picked #1 at the patriot's current spot, and we all know who that man is.

You have equal odds of getting a playoff QB who's undrafted (Romo) or from the 6th round (Matt Cassel).

Why reach for a QB then when someone like Harbaugh gives higher grades to people that end up falling anyway?

What are you saying?

Simply put: the odds of taking a 2nd day pick versus a 3rd day pick on a QB are roughly the same in the last 10 drafts concerning the probability that he will lead the 49ers to the playoffs.

Furthermore, if Harbaugh can give Tony Romo a 2nd round grade and see him be a UDFA, then I am sure that in this draft he will find someone else who has a high grade (for him) that no one else will want. In this case he can just wait to pluck up his guy on the 3rd day.

I posted a link to my analysis of playoff QBs in OTC's latest mock thread for the last 10 drafts.

People are worried that if they don't get Stanzi or someone else in the 2nd, then all is lost. All I am saying is that the probability of Stanzi in the 2nd / 3rd or some random 6th round pick (like a Matt Cassel) or even UDFA (like Romo) being our ticket to the playoffs is the same, according to how the last 10 drafts have played out. There is absolutely no need to reach for anyone just because of a rush on QBs, unless you're doing the reaching in the 1st round (which is tricky in itself).

In the last 10 drafts concerning playoff 1st rounders, out of Rivers, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Flacco, Ryan, Vince Young, Cutler, and Sanchez only Cutler was considered a reach at the time he was drafted by Shanahan, but he still would've been a 1st rounder.

[ Edited by Eskendale on Apr 27, 2011 at 17:29:25 ]

or



Id be ok with.

Originally posted by Eskendale:

Originally posted by PTulini:

Originally posted by Eskendale:
I really don't understand why webzoners are focused on the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There hasn't been a single QB in the last 10 drafts drafted in the 3rd who has led a team to the playoffs.

Outside of Tarvaris Jackson (who might not even be the Vikings QB), the only one who has from the 2nd was picked #1 at the patriot's current spot, and we all know who that man is.

You have equal odds of getting a playoff QB who's undrafted (Romo) or from the 6th round (Matt Cassel).

Why reach for a QB then when someone like Harbaugh gives higher grades to people that end up falling anyway?

What are you saying?

Simply put: the odds of taking a 2nd day pick versus a 3rd day pick on a QB are roughly the same in the last 10 drafts concerning the probability that he will lead the 49ers to the playoffs.

Furthermore, if Harbaugh can give Tony Romo a 2nd round grade and see him be a UDFA, then I am sure that in this draft he will find someone else who has a high grade (for him) that no one else will want. In this case he can just wait to pluck up his guy on the 3rd day.

I posted a link to my analysis of playoff QBs in OTC's latest mock thread for the last 10 drafts.

People are worried that if they don't get Stanzi or someone else in the 2nd, then all is lost. All I am saying is that the probability of Stanzi in the 2nd / 3rd or some random 6th round pick (like a Matt Cassel) or even UDFA (like Romo) being our ticket to the playoffs is the same, according to how the last 10 drafts have played out. There is absolutely no need to reach for anyone just because of a rush on QBs, unless you're doing the reaching in the 1st round.

I concur.

Originally posted by PTulini:

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
If you have a guy rated as a 2nd round QB I don't think you wait until the 7th to take him.

If Harbaugh had been in charge of the Raiders draft the year that Romo came out, and the team needed a QB, they would have taken him in the middle rounds. Maybe not the second round, but certainly before the 6th.

You can't assume that you're the only genius that sees the potential in a less talked about prospect.

If we have a QB that everyone thinks will go late rated as a second round prospect, then I think we'd probably take him in the 3rd, or maybe the 4th. I mean, if we have him rated that high then by the time the third round comes around he would most likely be the highest rated player on our board.

Playing this game of trying to get more guys that you don't rate as high just because you think you can still get your top guy later is just greedy and is likely to backfire. I don't think you take that risk with QBs.

And if they Cowboys had picked Romo in the third they would look like geniuses now, instead of guys who just got lucky.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that it could be someone "off the radar" that we aren't expecting.

You mean someone like Froman? I could see the 9ers drafting 2 QBs in the later rounds, if the run on QBS happens before the 45th pick. I hope they don't reach for Stanzi in the 2nd unless He's Harbaugh's guy.

duplicate

[ Edited by LottOfDefense on Apr 27, 2011 at 21:08:59 ]

Originally posted by LottOfDefense:

Originally posted by PTulini:

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
If you have a guy rated as a 2nd round QB I don't think you wait until the 7th to take him.

If Harbaugh had been in charge of the Raiders draft the year that Romo came out, and the team needed a QB, they would have taken him in the middle rounds. Maybe not the second round, but certainly before the 6th.

You can't assume that you're the only genius that sees the potential in a less talked about prospect.

If we have a QB that everyone thinks will go late rated as a second round prospect, then I think we'd probably take him in the 3rd, or maybe the 4th. I mean, if we have him rated that high then by the time the third round comes around he would most likely be the highest rated player on our board.

Playing this game of trying to get more guys that you don't rate as high just because you think you can still get your top guy later is just greedy and is likely to backfire. I don't think you take that risk with QBs.

And if they Cowboys had picked Romo in the third they would look like geniuses now, instead of guys who just got lucky.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that it could be someone "off the radar" that we aren't expecting.

You mean someone like Froman? I could see the 9ers drafting 2 QBs in the later rounds, if the run on QBS happens before the 45th pick. I hope they don't reach for Stanzi in the 2nd unless He's Harbaugh's guy.

I totally agree with the idea taking 2 QBs in the later rounds, if not one in the 1st and then possibly 3rd day.

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:

Originally posted by PTulini:

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
If you have a guy rated as a 2nd round QB I don't think you wait until the 7th to take him.

If Harbaugh had been in charge of the Raiders draft the year that Romo came out, and the team needed a QB, they would have taken him in the middle rounds. Maybe not the second round, but certainly before the 6th.

You can't assume that you're the only genius that sees the potential in a less talked about prospect.

If we have a QB that everyone thinks will go late rated as a second round prospect, then I think we'd probably take him in the 3rd, or maybe the 4th. I mean, if we have him rated that high then by the time the third round comes around he would most likely be the highest rated player on our board.

Playing this game of trying to get more guys that you don't rate as high just because you think you can still get your top guy later is just greedy and is likely to backfire. I don't think you take that risk with QBs.

And if they Cowboys had picked Romo in the third they would look like geniuses now, instead of guys who just got lucky.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that it could be someone "off the radar" that we aren't expecting.

I fully agree with what you're saying. But what I'm trying to say is don't be surprised if we take that "off the radar" guy earlier than expected.

If Harbaugh thinks some 7th round prospect, like Devlin for example, is the best guy for us, and gives him a 2nd round grade, then we will probably take him way before the 7th.

Qb is the one position I'm not worried about, Harbaugh's got it under control. As long as it's not at the 7 spot.

[ Edited by deep2crab on Apr 27, 2011 at 19:50:43 ]

I think we'll come out of this draft with 2 QBs. The first QB by the 3rd round, and the second QB in the later rounds.

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:

Originally posted by PTulini:

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
If you have a guy rated as a 2nd round QB I don't think you wait until the 7th to take him.

If Harbaugh had been in charge of the Raiders draft the year that Romo came out, and the team needed a QB, they would have taken him in the middle rounds. Maybe not the second round, but certainly before the 6th.

You can't assume that you're the only genius that sees the potential in a less talked about prospect.

If we have a QB that everyone thinks will go late rated as a second round prospect, then I think we'd probably take him in the 3rd, or maybe the 4th. I mean, if we have him rated that high then by the time the third round comes around he would most likely be the highest rated player on our board.

Playing this game of trying to get more guys that you don't rate as high just because you think you can still get your top guy later is just greedy and is likely to backfire. I don't think you take that risk with QBs.

And if they Cowboys had picked Romo in the third they would look like geniuses now, instead of guys who just got lucky.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that it could be someone "off the radar" that we aren't expecting.

I fully agree with what you're saying. But what I'm trying to say is don't be surprised if we take that "off the radar" guy earlier than expected.

If Harbaugh thinks some 7th round prospect, like Devlin for example, is the best guy for us, and gives him a 2nd round grade, then we will probably take him way before the 7th.

Originally posted by mayo49:
Stanzi in the 3rd.

Jim Harbaugh just needs to use his secret antenna and get us our qb of the future. I don't care if its the 7th pick or the 7th round. JUST GET US A GOOD ONE!