Mock Mock, SWAGG'S HERE

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
This is much better than you player rankings.

Not by much. There are 3 players in a row in the 20s of this draft that I highly doubt are drafted in round 1 at all. Watkins, Austin, and Leshoure are 2nd rounders ( or even 3rd in Austin's case).

Marcel Dareus dropping to 12 isnt going to happen and Gabbert is going in round 1.

Now.. as far as the Niners picks go... I would be ok with the draft although taking a kicker and a FB in round 4 isnt too thrilling.

Plus, Watkins is going to turn 27 years of age in the middle of his rookie season. That is a really hard sell for a first round pick, especially at a position like guard. Austin is also a real crazy reach for a first rounder due to his off the field issue. LeShoure is the most likely to be a first rounder, but will probably be a second rounder, as well.

Gabbert has way too much upside to fall outside the top ten picks. The only way this could happen is if all the QB starved teams in the top ten were able to secure a free agent QB, or one through a trade. The Cards, Niners, Titans, and Skins will all need new QB's to build their franchise around, and are not going to pin their franchise hopes on second or third day prospects like Ricky Stanzi or Pat Devlin. If these QB's work out well, there will be a run on them earlier rather than later in the draft. The most likely QB prospect to fall is Mallett, not Gabbert.

LOL

Age has nothing to do w/ anything at the OFFENSIVE GUARD position! Guys like Bruce Mathews and Ray Brown played till they were like 40. OG's player longer than any position in football. Besides, you can look at it from the perspective that he has less wear and tear since started playing football late.

Rahim Morris loves to mold troubled kids into men. Marvin Austin is a 1st round talent. Period.

Gabbert is not a 1st round talent. Period. Nothing in his game justifies that. 32 teams could need a qb and i'd still say the same thing. For someone who played in a spread system he put up crap numbers. He's inaccurate. I challenge anyone to find me one single throw that makes you say WOW. Bubble screens and 2 yard slants make a first rounder not. Yes i know he has a cannon, but im gonna be real with it and say Kyle Boller had a cannon too. Their problems? They can throw it a million miles, but it ain't gonna be accurate. So what's that get ya? It gets ya nowhere.

Pat Devlin is a 6th round pick at best. Dude sucks. If Flacco never came out of Delaware, nobody would give a crap about Pat Devlin. Oh and Flacco sucks and they're not even similar qb's.

We tend to agree on our view of Devlin as a pro quarterback, but ultimately, it is not our own personal view on how he will perform in the NFL. It is the viewpoint of scouts, GM's coaches, and more. So, even if you do not personally like a prospect, you have to look at the prospect through the eyes of those who make the selection.

For example, a few years ago, I believed that Tyson Jackson was drastically overrated as a prospect, and marked him as a late first rounder until the last weeks before the draft (I had him going 9th overall in my last week's projection) , even though virtually every scout, coach, GM appeared to be in love with him. In the end, he was the third overall pick, and he has disappointed as I expected. However, it wasn't my call, it was the Chiefs. A bitter pill to swallow for me, and a lesson learned.

So, while I understand and respect your opinion that Gabbert is way overrated as a pro prospect (even though I disagree), every scouting service out there will disagree with your opinion that he is outside the first round. So, my advice is to not go with your heart in your projections, but how coaches, scouts, GM's will ultimately select. Gabbert has all the tools and physical attributes the scouts love. He will have to turn in a disasterous workout, or rob a bank to fall out of the first. Just way too much upside in the minds of those running NFL organizations.

This also goes for a prospect like Watkins, who had a strong Senior Bowl week. Teams do not draft guards very often in the first round (usually there is one late first rounder every year), and when teams factor in his age, at 27, this is a major problem. In the end, a team is losing about 3-4 years of time in selecting someone of this age. It simply runs against the grain of how NFL teams draft. Is it possible? Sure. It is likely? No, it is highly unlikely.

One final note: I wanted to research the length of NFL careers by position. Guards do not have the logest careers. This falls to kickers and punter, and QB's. Guards are not listed in the top group.

Shortest Careers
The shortest careers among NFL players tends to be those who hit and get hit the most during games and practice. Running backs have the shortest average careers of just 2.57 years. Wide receivers have average careers of 2.81 years. The average career for cornerbacks is 2.94 years.

Longest Careers
The longest careers among NFL players tends to be those who are hit the least. Kickers and punters have the longest careers, averaging 4.87 years. Quarterbacks are next with an average career of 4.44 years

[url=null]null[/url] Longest and Shortest NFL careers by position

I didn't read the whole article, just what you posted, but those numbers are skewed. Atleast on paper. Teams carry a slew of WR's and CB's alot of which aren't really NFL receivers. They are just there because of demand. Thus the back end continues to get "upgraded" year after year. Thus more CB's and WR's come and go.

Same can be said for RB's to a lesser extent. Alot of returners are listed as RB's thus teams keeping 4ish RB's then they too get upgraded become expendable. Not too mention the back end here getting upgraded fairly often too.

In contrast teams only carry 1 kicker and punter (usually).

QB's last long usually due to experience.

I for one believe the guard position is one that can be played at a high level well into your 30's. While some teams (the rebuilding teams) may look at his age as a problem. I don't think all 32 teams will. Thus he will be drafted relatively close to where his skill set suggests. I know absolutely nothing about the guy. Just don't think his age will cost him.

I dont see how you can say his age wont cost him when he will be 6-7 years older than most rookies coming out. I think it absolutley will drop him down.

if his position was one in which speed was key then I would agree. Bot not an OG.

Watkins won't be a 1st (or likely a 2nd), but he's going to be a great pick for someone. I hope we can get him in the middle rounds.

He's surprisingly good for how little experience he has.

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
This is much better than you player rankings.

Not by much. There are 3 players in a row in the 20s of this draft that I highly doubt are drafted in round 1 at all. Watkins, Austin, and Leshoure are 2nd rounders ( or even 3rd in Austin's case).

Marcel Dareus dropping to 12 isnt going to happen and Gabbert is going in round 1.

Now.. as far as the Niners picks go... I would be ok with the draft although taking a kicker and a FB in round 4 isnt too thrilling.

Plus, Watkins is going to turn 27 years of age in the middle of his rookie season. That is a really hard sell for a first round pick, especially at a position like guard. Austin is also a real crazy reach for a first rounder due to his off the field issue. LeShoure is the most likely to be a first rounder, but will probably be a second rounder, as well.

Gabbert has way too much upside to fall outside the top ten picks. The only way this could happen is if all the QB starved teams in the top ten were able to secure a free agent QB, or one through a trade. The Cards, Niners, Titans, and Skins will all need new QB's to build their franchise around, and are not going to pin their franchise hopes on second or third day prospects like Ricky Stanzi or Pat Devlin. If these QB's work out well, there will be a run on them earlier rather than later in the draft. The most likely QB prospect to fall is Mallett, not Gabbert.

LOL

Age has nothing to do w/ anything at the OFFENSIVE GUARD position! Guys like Bruce Mathews and Ray Brown played till they were like 40. OG's player longer than any position in football. Besides, you can look at it from the perspective that he has less wear and tear since started playing football late.

Rahim Morris loves to mold troubled kids into men. Marvin Austin is a 1st round talent. Period.

Gabbert is not a 1st round talent. Period. Nothing in his game justifies that. 32 teams could need a qb and i'd still say the same thing. For someone who played in a spread system he put up crap numbers. He's inaccurate. I challenge anyone to find me one single throw that makes you say WOW. Bubble screens and 2 yard slants make a first rounder not. Yes i know he has a cannon, but im gonna be real with it and say Kyle Boller had a cannon too. Their problems? They can throw it a million miles, but it ain't gonna be accurate. So what's that get ya? It gets ya nowhere.

Pat Devlin is a 6th round pick at best. Dude sucks. If Flacco never came out of Delaware, nobody would give a crap about Pat Devlin. Oh and Flacco sucks and they're not even similar qb's.

We tend to agree on our view of Devlin as a pro quarterback, but ultimately, it is not our own personal view on how he will perform in the NFL. It is the viewpoint of scouts, GM's coaches, and more. So, even if you do not personally like a prospect, you have to look at the prospect through the eyes of those who make the selection.

For example, a few years ago, I believed that Tyson Jackson was drastically overrated as a prospect, and marked him as a late first rounder until the last weeks before the draft (I had him going 9th overall in my last week's projection) , even though virtually every scout, coach, GM appeared to be in love with him. In the end, he was the third overall pick, and he has disappointed as I expected. However, it wasn't my call, it was the Chiefs. A bitter pill to swallow for me, and a lesson learned.

So, while I understand and respect your opinion that Gabbert is way overrated as a pro prospect (even though I disagree), every scouting service out there will disagree with your opinion that he is outside the first round. So, my advice is to not go with your heart in your projections, but how coaches, scouts, GM's will ultimately select. Gabbert has all the tools and physical attributes the scouts love. He will have to turn in a disasterous workout, or rob a bank to fall out of the first. Just way too much upside in the minds of those running NFL organizations.

This also goes for a prospect like Watkins, who had a strong Senior Bowl week. Teams do not draft guards very often in the first round (usually there is one late first rounder every year), and when teams factor in his age, at 27, this is a major problem. In the end, a team is losing about 3-4 years of time in selecting someone of this age. It simply runs against the grain of how NFL teams draft. Is it possible? Sure. It is likely? No, it is highly unlikely.

One final note: I wanted to research the length of NFL careers by position. Guards do not have the logest careers. This falls to kickers and punter, and QB's. Guards are not listed in the top group.

Shortest Careers
The shortest careers among NFL players tends to be those who hit and get hit the most during games and practice. Running backs have the shortest average careers of just 2.57 years. Wide receivers have average careers of 2.81 years. The average career for cornerbacks is 2.94 years.

Longest Careers
The longest careers among NFL players tends to be those who are hit the least. Kickers and punters have the longest careers, averaging 4.87 years. Quarterbacks are next with an average career of 4.44 years

[url=null]null[/url] Longest and Shortest NFL careers by position

I didn't read the whole article, just what you posted, but those numbers are skewed. Atleast on paper. Teams carry a slew of WR's and CB's alot of which aren't really NFL receivers. They are just there because of demand. Thus the back end continues to get "upgraded" year after year. Thus more CB's and WR's come and go.

Same can be said for RB's to a lesser extent. Alot of returners are listed as RB's thus teams keeping 4ish RB's then they too get upgraded become expendable. Not too mention the back end here getting upgraded fairly often too.

In contrast teams only carry 1 kicker and punter (usually).

QB's last long usually due to experience.

I for one believe the guard position is one that can be played at a high level well into your 30's. While some teams (the rebuilding teams) may look at his age as a problem. I don't think all 32 teams will. Thus he will be drafted relatively close to where his skill set suggests. I know absolutely nothing about the guy. Just don't think his age will cost him.

INDEED!

Originally posted by strickac:
Watkins won't be a 1st (or likely a 2nd), but he's going to be a great pick for someone. I hope we can get him in the middle rounds.

He's surprisingly good for how little experience he has.

And that right there is the reason he's a 1st round pick.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
This is much better than you player rankings.

Not by much. There are 3 players in a row in the 20s of this draft that I highly doubt are drafted in round 1 at all. Watkins, Austin, and Leshoure are 2nd rounders ( or even 3rd in Austin's case).

Marcel Dareus dropping to 12 isnt going to happen and Gabbert is going in round 1.

Now.. as far as the Niners picks go... I would be ok with the draft although taking a kicker and a FB in round 4 isnt too thrilling.

1 player every year drops out of the top 10. I think that player could be Dareus. It's not like the players selected before him aren't better. It's a matter of team need and scheme. He doesn't fit most of the top 10 teams.

Watkins very well could go in round 1. He was the best OG @ the Sr. Bowl. By far.

Tampa has never been afraid of drafting players with character concerns. Nobody questions Marvin Austin is a 1st round talent. With past selections of Aquib Talib and Mike Williams, Raheem Morris gets a great talent that he can help mold into a man.

LeShoure could very well go before Mark Ingram w/ a great 40 time. He's a much better prospect than Ryan Mathews was last year and he went in the top 15 in a STACKED draft.

I disagree on every count but we shall see. I would bet the ranch that Austin isnt going in round 1 though.

EVERY year there's at least one, WTF where did that come from, pick in the first round. He's going fairly late in round 1 too so it's not that unrealistic. Do you agree that he's a first round talent? Or do you just not see his skill set?

Head case. Suspended by Butch Davis at NC. Has skills but I doubt any team is going to risk a first round pick on him. I think a 2nd rd pick is possible but a 3rd round slot is the most likely.

He accepted gifts from an agent. Hardly classifies him as troublesome at the next level. I think it shows a lot that he sat out the entire year and came into the East West Shrine game in TIP TOP shape and completely dominated. Accepting gifts is something all players do. A lot of UNC's guys just got caught.

Interesting you have 4 CB's goingbefore Jimmy Smith. I think the combine will impact this position more than any other.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
This is much better than you player rankings.

Not by much.

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:


You don't have Gabbart in the 1st round? I take back what I said.

This is slightly better than your player ranking

[ Edited by 49ersMyLife on Feb 10, 2011 at 17:27:38 ]

Why would we have to trade up for Ponder when guys like Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all on the board? I don't understand. You say that you look at the draft through the NFL's eyes, not yours, but you do know that Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all rated and ranked higher than Ponder, right?

You might think Ponder will be better than them, just like I do. But that's not what teams like Buffalo, Carolina, Cincy and Arizona will be thinking.

Originally posted by ishkabibel:
Interesting you have 4 CB's goingbefore Jimmy Smith. I think the combine will impact this position more than any other.

Which is why i have the other corners moving up

Originally posted by niner4life21:
Why would we have to trade up for Ponder when guys like Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all on the board? I don't understand. You say that you look at the draft through the NFL's eyes, not yours, but you do know that Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all rated and ranked higher than Ponder, right?

You might think Ponder will be better than them, just like I do. But that's not what teams like Buffalo, Carolina, Cincy and Arizona will be thinking.

I think the NFL looks at Ponder through his entire 4 years at FSU. Not just his senior year (which he made up for during the Sr. Bowl) in which he got hurt. He's checking out medically. Prior to the 2010 season Ponder was considered one of if not the best QB prospects coming out. NFL teams are smart enough to know that just because of 1 bad year due to injury they should remove him from their top lists once he's healthy.

I like Mallett a lot. Unfortunately, like Clausen, i think he drops due to his off the field/leadership issues. Gabbert, well lets just be honest, nobody knew who he was last year. And if you did, you def didn't think he was a 1st round pick kind of guy. He REGRESSED in his Jr year and teams rarely like to take a first round pick on a guy who REGRESSED. Locker has regressed B2B years. He's def not going in the first.

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by niner4life21:
Why would we have to trade up for Ponder when guys like Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all on the board? I don't understand. You say that you look at the draft through the NFL's eyes, not yours, but you do know that Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all rated and ranked higher than Ponder, right?

You might think Ponder will be better than them, just like I do. But that's not what teams like Buffalo, Carolina, Cincy and Arizona will be thinking.

I think the NFL looks at Ponder through his entire 4 years at FSU. Not just his senior year (which he made up for during the Sr. Bowl) in which he got hurt. He's checking out medically. Prior to the 2010 season Ponder was considered one of if not the best QB prospects coming out. NFL teams are smart enough to know that just because of 1 bad year due to injury they should remove him from their top lists once he's healthy.

I like Mallett a lot. Unfortunately, like Clausen, i think he drops due to his off the field/leadership issues. Gabbert, well lets just be honest, nobody knew who he was last year. And if you did, you def didn't think he was a 1st round pick kind of guy. He REGRESSED in his Jr year and teams rarely like to take a first round pick on a guy who REGRESSED. Locker has regressed B2B years. He's def not going in the first.

I don't think you would be consistent in downgrading Gabbert for not knowing who he was last year, but then having Cam Newton as a top ten pick. There may be other arguments you present, but this one is not strong.

When prospective underclassmen think about joining the draft, they go through a pre-draft grading by NFL Draft Advisory Committee. Gabbert sent his in for evaluation. I just don't see how he could have walked away from Columbia with another year of eligibility if he wasn't graded a high first rounder.

As for Ponder, I know you think he will be an excellent pro, but you have to concede that there are a number of factors that limit his ceiling, including a lack of a strong arm, injury history, and drop in productivity from his junior year. He's more of a system, WCO offense player, and has a limited upside. Now, he may surprise and be better than the majority of the eligible QB's. But, GM's, scouts, coaches are going to see a huge difference in the upside between a Ponder and players like Newton and Gabbert.

You are probably right about Mallett dropping over character/leadership concerns.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by niner4life21:
Why would we have to trade up for Ponder when guys like Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all on the board? I don't understand. You say that you look at the draft through the NFL's eyes, not yours, but you do know that Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all rated and ranked higher than Ponder, right?

You might think Ponder will be better than them, just like I do. But that's not what teams like Buffalo, Carolina, Cincy and Arizona will be thinking.

I think the NFL looks at Ponder through his entire 4 years at FSU. Not just his senior year (which he made up for during the Sr. Bowl) in which he got hurt. He's checking out medically. Prior to the 2010 season Ponder was considered one of if not the best QB prospects coming out. NFL teams are smart enough to know that just because of 1 bad year due to injury they should remove him from their top lists once he's healthy.

I like Mallett a lot. Unfortunately, like Clausen, i think he drops due to his off the field/leadership issues. Gabbert, well lets just be honest, nobody knew who he was last year. And if you did, you def didn't think he was a 1st round pick kind of guy. He REGRESSED in his Jr year and teams rarely like to take a first round pick on a guy who REGRESSED. Locker has regressed B2B years. He's def not going in the first.

I don't think you would be consistent in downgrading Gabbert for not knowing who he was last year, but then having Cam Newton as a top ten pick. There may be other arguments you present, but this one is not strong.

When prospective underclassmen think about joining the draft, they go through a pre-draft grading by NFL Draft Advisory Committee. Gabbert sent his in for evaluation. I just don't see how he could have walked away from Columbia with another year of eligibility if he wasn't graded a high first rounder.

As for Ponder, I know you think he will be an excellent pro, but you have to concede that there are a number of factors that limit his ceiling, including a lack of a strong arm, injury history, and drop in productivity from his junior year. He's more of a system, WCO offense player, and has a limited upside. Now, he may surprise and be better than the majority of the eligible QB's. But, GM's, scouts, coaches are going to see a huge difference in the upside between a Ponder and players like Newton and Gabbert.

You are probably right about Mallett dropping over character/leadership concerns.

Cam Newton won the freakin Heisman and a national title. Gabbert REGRESSED, drastically, from his sophomore year. Totally different situations.

You may be onto something with the draft advisory board deal and gabbert, but you have to keep in mind that's an advisory board, not 32 nfl gm's. Gm's that haven't even put together their big boards yet. Gm's that don't know what the cba holds. That same advisory board gave jimmy clausen a high first round grade. And colt mccoy and 2nd round grade. Brady quinn a top 10 grade. See where i'm going with this MD? Here's also a thought. Maybe, just maybe Gabbert and his people realize that this class of qb's is not very good. They also realize, like myself, that Gabbert is regressing. That they don't want a Jake Locker type of situation to happen. Perhaps. Pure speculation. But entirely possible.




Also, after watching this clip i'll thank you kindly for retracting your arm strength comment made about Ponder.

Cheers

Nice mock!

finally someone else who see's it my way, Gabbert is garbage.

Newton tho I dont agree going that high, but who knows, but he is a project.

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by niner4life21:
Why would we have to trade up for Ponder when guys like Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all on the board? I don't understand. You say that you look at the draft through the NFL's eyes, not yours, but you do know that Gabbert, Mallett and Locker are all rated and ranked higher than Ponder, right?

You might think Ponder will be better than them, just like I do. But that's not what teams like Buffalo, Carolina, Cincy and Arizona will be thinking.

I think the NFL looks at Ponder through his entire 4 years at FSU. Not just his senior year (which he made up for during the Sr. Bowl) in which he got hurt. He's checking out medically. Prior to the 2010 season Ponder was considered one of if not the best QB prospects coming out. NFL teams are smart enough to know that just because of 1 bad year due to injury they should remove him from their top lists once he's healthy.

I like Mallett a lot. Unfortunately, like Clausen, i think he drops due to his off the field/leadership issues. Gabbert, well lets just be honest, nobody knew who he was last year. And if you did, you def didn't think he was a 1st round pick kind of guy. He REGRESSED in his Jr year and teams rarely like to take a first round pick on a guy who REGRESSED. Locker has regressed B2B years. He's def not going in the first.

I don't think you would be consistent in downgrading Gabbert for not knowing who he was last year, but then having Cam Newton as a top ten pick. There may be other arguments you present, but this one is not strong.

When prospective underclassmen think about joining the draft, they go through a pre-draft grading by NFL Draft Advisory Committee. Gabbert sent his in for evaluation. I just don't see how he could have walked away from Columbia with another year of eligibility if he wasn't graded a high first rounder.

As for Ponder, I know you think he will be an excellent pro, but you have to concede that there are a number of factors that limit his ceiling, including a lack of a strong arm, injury history, and drop in productivity from his junior year. He's more of a system, WCO offense player, and has a limited upside. Now, he may surprise and be better than the majority of the eligible QB's. But, GM's, scouts, coaches are going to see a huge difference in the upside between a Ponder and players like Newton and Gabbert.

You are probably right about Mallett dropping over character/leadership concerns.

Cam Newton won the freakin Heisman and a national title. Gabbert REGRESSED, drastically, from his sophomore year. Totally different situations.

You may be onto something with the draft advisory board deal and gabbert, but you have to keep in mind that's an advisory board, not 32 nfl gm's. Gm's that haven't even put together their big boards yet. Gm's that don't know what the cba holds. That same advisory board gave jimmy clausen a high first round grade. And colt mccoy and 2nd round grade. Brady quinn a top 10 grade. See where i'm going with this MD? Here's also a thought. Maybe, just maybe Gabbert and his people realize that this class of qb's is not very good. They also realize, like myself, that Gabbert is regressing. That they don't want a Jake Locker type of situation to happen. Perhaps. Pure speculation. But entirely possible.




Also, after watching this clip i'll thank you kindly for retracting your arm strength comment made about Ponder.

Cheers

When you stated "last year", I believed you were referring to the 2009 college year. But, it doesn't really matter. Gabbert may not have made huge headlines in 2010, since Missouri was not in the hunt for a national championship, but prospects are not invisible to scouts, coaches and GM's even if the common sports fan does not know who they are. This is not a popularity contest. Gabbert was a top prospect going into this year, and coming out of this year by those who run drafts.

As for the Draft Advisory Committee, you are incorrect on your statement that it is not made up of NFL GM's. The College Advisory Committee is comprised of 12 general managers/personnel directors of NFL clubs and the directors
of the NFL’s two scouting combines. You may refer to the attachment, or do a Wiki search.

People who make up the Draft Advisory Committee

As for the Draft Advisory Committee's grades for Clausen, Quinn, and
McCoy, let's go one by one: Clausen fell in the draft more to character/leadership concerns than talent. The Advisory Committee, I believe, does not take these issues into account, simply the level of talent. Quinn dropped about a half round, and McCoy about a half round. Now, is the Draft Advisory Board perfect? No. But, they are generally the most reliable source for players, coaches, scouts, GM's and player personnel director. Perfection is not the issue. It is reliability, and consistency.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on Feb 11, 2011 at 08:04:49 ]