The gamebreaker draft scenario

Hi everyone, just joined up; glad to be here. Anyways as you can tell I’m a die hard niner fan from Toronto, and I’m usually watching hockey on Saturdays, so my knowledge of the NCAAF is limited. I try watching as many niner games as I can [mostly on the net] and I think our team is on the right track. Like everyone else here, I agree that our biggest need is RT. Now here’s where some might disagree with me, I think our second biggest need is in the secondary, and not a DE/OLB pass rusher. With Parys, Manny, Justin Smith, Brooks, Spikes and Willis, we have the pieces in place to put pressure on the QB, without having to spend another 1st or 2nd round pick into that department. We need a shutdown CB or dominant FS to complement the front 7. Clements is a good but not great player, and is on the downside of his career. Lewis is slow and injury prone. I’m a big fan of Spencer, but on a great team he’s a No. 2 guy. Our third biggest need is a KR/PR; anyone who watched games last year knows that we were terrible. I was actually happy every time we called for a fair catch or had a kneeldown. This needs to change.

Now im not going to make a mock, because as everyone knows, you cant predict what’s going to happen. What I will do is try and a come up with scenarios in which we can get the biggest game breakers and maximize our first three picks. Ill first come up with a list of several players which I think are locks to go in the first ten picks. Here they are:

Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State
Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State


So there are 6 of the top ten picks, I don’t know in what order. Now if I had to bet on it, I’d definitely add Berry to that list, but I want all the GM’s to drink Mayock’s cool-aid and have him drop to us at 13. That’s the only reason he’s not there. Here are four defensive players that have a chance to go 7-12. Now as I stated before I don’t think these players fit the needs we have, so for my scenario to work out, we need 2-3 of these players to be taken before our pick at 13.

Jason Pierre Paul DE USF
Rolando McClain ILB Alabama

Sergio Kindle OLB Texas
Brendan Graham OLB Michigan

So here come our picks. Like I said, we need to maximize the value of our picks, i.e. Take the BPA. Obviously a DB and a couple OT will have been taken by the time we get to here, so we have to hope that GM’s rate Thomas higher than Berry like Mayock does and he is the first DB taken. We also need SEA to take one of the two QB’s with their first pick, so that they’re forced to take an LT with their second first rounder. So if this plays out, we can have Berry at 13 [unlikely] or Haden at 13 [probable]. Like I said before, we need help in the secondary, and Berry at FS or Haden as our future shutdown CB would be amazing.

Eric Berry S/CB Tennessee 1a[1]
Joe Haden CB Florida 1a[2]
Earl Thomas S Texas 1a[3]
C.J. Spiller RB/KR Clemson 1a[4]

If we do take Berry/Haden, and for some miracle, Spiller is still available at 17 we should jump all over that and take him. He’s a gamebreaker. In this scenario we get a gamebreaker in the secondary and another one in the backfield. I love Gore [currently my fav. player] but he lacks breakaway speed, and having Spiller as a change of pace back will help the Oline and prolong Gore’s productive years. By the way, there’s no chance I put Spiller back there returning punts. Way too dangerous for a 1st rounder, kicks I would, [albeit reluctantly] but not punts. We can find a KR/PR in later rounds.

C.J. Spiller RB/KR Clemson 1b[1]
Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa 1b[2]
Trent Williams OT Oklahoma 1b[3]
Anthony Davis OT Rutgers 1b[4]
Bruce Campbell OT Maryland 1b[5]


I know I put RT as our biggest need, and I still stand by that, but its RIGHT tackle, which I know is crucial, but its not LT, which is absolutely essential. I think if this plays out, we have to take Berry/Haden and Spiller in the first and gamble that we can solve RT in the second round. We cannot pass up the chance to add two more playmakers to our already potent line-up. The next few players are the following three tackles in terms of rankings.

Charles Brown USC OT
Rodger Saffold Indiana OT
Vladimir Ducasse Massachusetts G/OT

I don’t know much about them so I haven’t ranked them, and we need to move up in the 2nd round to pretty much select any of these players. Brown and Saffold are rated higher than Ducasse, so if we want to move up to grab the first two, I think it will require trading 2nd rounders and giving up a 3rd, or if we value Ducasse and think we can grab him a bit later, it should only require trading 2nd’s and giving up a 4th. I would be extremely happy if this played out as it would be a monumental draft, one we would be looking back on in a few years while enjoying our 6th Lombardi!!!

Thanks for taking the time to read this long winded thread, I welcome all responses. GO NINERS!!!

Toronto49er

A lot to read, and I enjoyed it. That said, there are a couple of things I disagree with... at least to some extent.

- While we do have some need for CB, I don't think the urgency is all that high. Watching the games closely and repeatedly, I think our main troubles in allowing so many pass yards against us was three-fold.

(1) Our scheme. Way too often were we playing our CBs 7-10 yards OFF of their receivers. QBs would need only 1 quick look, and the pass was out to his first read in 3 or less seconds.

(2) Our safety's range... particularly Lewis/Roman. This limited range scared Manusky enough to have our CBs play so far off. I think because of the fear of our offense not being able to generate enough time of possession and points... our DC played too much bend-don't-break defense... and just hoped for the turnovers.

(3) We can look at the sack statistics and mislead ourselves, but let's face it... our pass rush was far too often invisible. We beat the crap out of some OLs, but failed miserably in generating pressure on many. QB's had 5+ seconds to hit some big ones downfield, as our LBs and DL futilely pawed at OL.

Another thing, and I will be quicker here... I want us to draft an OT... period. If we take an OT in round 1, I expect them to feel that this OT can POSSIBLY play at either tackle spot. He would likely play RT in 2010 with a chance to play LT in the future... even if just due to injury. If he is without a doubt "only a RT"... sure okay... wait till round 2-3.

I mean it's hard to really comment when you state this isn't really a mock but your dream scenario's coming true. Whihc I don't see hardly any of this becomgin true. I can't figure out is why you think GM's are gonna be listening to what Mayock has to say. If they like Thomas over Berry it's b/c they like what they have seen of him on tape and not b/c Mayock said so. Plus I seriously doubt Seattle will be drafting a qb after getting Whitehurst. As for pass rusher it is most definite a team need. You have to remember they have no legit pass rusher. Manny will most likely be gone after one more season. Smith isn't getting any younger, Parys stinks, and Brooks is still a mystery.

I've gone down a similar road myself. First round CB Haden falls to us, and RB Spiller the homerun threat everytime he touches the ball. If Berry falls, even better!

But than I remember that our O-line was statistically the worst in the NFL. And Baas is entering his contract year, and the philosophy has been not to pay large contracts to guards. BTW, Login Mankin drafted just before Baas, and a Pro Bowl guard is in the same position for Belecick's Patriots.

And I also agree, that I don't really want to pay a RT LT money in the first round.

But the question you have to ask yourself is which tackles will still be around when we pick at #49? Cause after #49 I don't know of any other tackle that has fast enough feet for RT. And the bad news is that both Charles Brown OT, Rodger Saffold OT, will be gone. Vladimir Ducasse has short arms for his size and doesn't have fast feet, so he is more likely a guard than a tackle. In my value chart, the only tackle that might be still on the board that can play RT is Tony Washington Abilene Christian OT.

Taking those 2 impact players in the first round, with only 1 ace in the hole for the second, is a risky gamble.

That's why I like trading back latter in the first round and picking up Rodger Saffold, and an extra second round pick. That seems like good value for a RT, and in a draft this deep, an extra second could yield us a very good D-line, OLB, CB, or WR, because those positions are deep through the second round.

Originally posted by mebemused:
I've gone down a similar road myself. First round CB Haden falls to us, and RB Spiller the homerun threat everytime he touches the ball. If Berry falls, even better!

But than I remember that our O-line was statistically the worst in the NFL. And Baas is entering his contract year, and the philosophy has been not to pay large contracts to guards. BTW, Login Mankin drafted just before Baas, and a Pro Bowl guard is in the same position for Belecick's Patriots.

And I also agree, that I don't really want to pay a RT LT money in the first round.

But the question you have to ask yourself is which tackles will still be around when we pick at #49? Cause after #49 I don't know of any other tackle that has fast enough feet for RT. And the bad news is that both Charles Brown OT, Rodger Saffold OT, will be gone. Vladimir Ducasse has short arms for his size and doesn't have fast feet, so he is more likely a guard than a tackle. In my value chart, the only tackle that might be still on the board that can play RT is Tony Washington Abilene Christian OT.

Taking those 2 impact players in the first round, with only 1 ace in the hole for the second, is a risky gamble.

That's why I like trading back latter in the first round and picking up Rodger Saffold, and an extra second round pick. That seems like good value for a RT, and in a draft this deep, an extra second could yield us a very good D-line, OLB, CB, or WR, because those positions are deep through the second round.

Nice post & good info. This Tony Washington is very intriguing. He kinda reminds me of Bruce Campbell in physique wise, just not as big & ripped. Not sure how he played against inferior competition.

Originally posted by lamontb:
I mean it's hard to really comment when you state this isn't really a mock but your dream scenario's coming true. Whihc I don't see hardly any of this becomgin true. I can't figure out is why you think GM's are gonna be listening to what Mayock has to say. If they like Thomas over Berry it's b/c they like what they have seen of him on tape and not b/c Mayock said so. Plus I seriously doubt Seattle will be drafting a qb after getting Whitehurst. As for pass rusher it is most definite a team need. You have to remember they have no legit pass rusher. Manny will most likely be gone after one more season. Smith isn't getting any younger, Parys stinks, and Brooks is still a mystery.

first off, thanks for the response. What I meant that this isn't a true mock as i dont have players going in specific orders, but I think i made my point in how the draft was going to play out. I think the two QB's, the two DT's, Bryant, Okung will go in the top ten, Mcclain and JPP will be gone before we pick; so will another T and a DB. Thats ten players with only two question marks left. we need SEA to take Clausen at 6 so that they have to take a T with their next pick, and that the the DB taken also has to be Thomas in order for my scenario to play out. I didn't mean that team's would favor Thomas because Mayock does, but that teams would evaluate the draft in the same way and put Thomas ahead of Berry.

Originally posted by oldman9er:
A lot to read, and I enjoyed it. That said, there are a couple of things I disagree with... at least to some extent.

- While we do have some need for CB, I don't think the urgency is all that high. Watching the games closely and repeatedly, I think our main troubles in allowing so many pass yards against us was three-fold.

(1) Our scheme. Way too often were we playing our CBs 7-10 yards OFF of their receivers. QBs would need only 1 quick look, and the pass was out to his first read in 3 or less seconds.

(2) Our safety's range... particularly Lewis/Roman. This limited range scared Manusky enough to have our CBs play so far off. I think because of the fear of our offense not being able to generate enough time of possession and points... our DC played too much bend-don't-break defense... and just hoped for the turnovers.

(3) We can look at the sack statistics and mislead ourselves, but let's face it... our pass rush was far too often invisible. We beat the crap out of some OLs, but failed miserably in generating pressure on many. QB's had 5+ seconds to hit some big ones downfield, as our LBs and DL futilely pawed at OL.

Another thing, and I will be quicker here... I want us to draft an OT... period. If we take an OT in round 1, I expect them to feel that this OT can POSSIBLY play at either tackle spot. He would likely play RT in 2010 with a chance to play LT in the future... even if just due to injury. If he is without a doubt "only a RT"... sure okay... wait till round 2-3.

I agree that a different scheme would help in our coverage, but I would also like to point out that scheme is even more important in pass rushing than in one on one coverage. as we have seen from great pass rushing teams, it has alot to do with the blitzing schemes, confusing the O line, sending more players to the QB that can be blocked, so on and so forth. my argument was that we already have the athletes in place to pressure the QB. and a tweak of the scheme would benefit more than a change of personnel.

also in general, im not saying we shouldn't take a DE/OLB in the draft, or not go after a G, im just saying not in the first few rounds.

my ideal draft would go something like this.

1 a- Berry/ Haden [in that order]

1 b- Spiller


trade 2nd,3rd to move up and select Charles Brown USC OT

or

trade 2nd, 4th to move up and select Rodger Saffold Indiana OT

for the rest of the draft take BPA and raise the talent level, snagging a PR/KR in the process. I know this is a longshot, but so was crabtree last year and it worked out, i know there were different circumstances involved, but something similar could still play out. This way we get our shutdown DB, our change of pace back to help Gore and prolong his career, and our starting RT. win win win IMHO. Go Niners!!!

Toronto49er

It would be great if that's how the draft fell, but I really don't see Berry falling that far.

Also, I think you may be Undervaluing the RT. I know its not a LT but injuries happen, and having a versatile tackles are paramount to maintaining winning football in November, December, January (and just maybe) February.

I'm still all for moving up and getting Okung if he falls to 5 or 6.

Originally posted by Toronto49er:

Originally posted by lamontb:
I mean it's hard to really comment when you state this isn't really a mock but your dream scenario's coming true. Whihc I don't see hardly any of this becomgin true. I can't figure out is why you think GM's are gonna be listening to what Mayock has to say. If they like Thomas over Berry it's b/c they like what they have seen of him on tape and not b/c Mayock said so. Plus I seriously doubt Seattle will be drafting a qb after getting Whitehurst. As for pass rusher it is most definite a team need. You have to remember they have no legit pass rusher. Manny will most likely be gone after one more season. Smith isn't getting any younger, Parys stinks, and Brooks is still a mystery.

first off, thanks for the response. What I meant that this isn't a true mock as i dont have players going in specific orders, but I think i made my point in how the draft was going to play out. I think the two QB's, the two DT's, Bryant, Okung will go in the top ten, Mcclain and JPP will be gone before we pick; so will another T and a DB. Thats ten players with only two question marks left. we need SEA to take Clausen at 6 so that they have to take a T with their next pick, and that the the DB taken also has to be Thomas in order for my scenario to play out. I didn't mean that team's would favor Thomas because Mayock does, but that teams would evaluate the draft in the same way and put Thomas ahead of Berry.

Originally posted by oldman9er:
A lot to read, and I enjoyed it. That said, there are a couple of things I disagree with... at least to some extent.

- While we do have some need for CB, I don't think the urgency is all that high. Watching the games closely and repeatedly, I think our main troubles in allowing so many pass yards against us was three-fold.

(1) Our scheme. Way too often were we playing our CBs 7-10 yards OFF of their receivers. QBs would need only 1 quick look, and the pass was out to his first read in 3 or less seconds.

(2) Our safety's range... particularly Lewis/Roman. This limited range scared Manusky enough to have our CBs play so far off. I think because of the fear of our offense not being able to generate enough time of possession and points... our DC played too much bend-don't-break defense... and just hoped for the turnovers.

(3) We can look at the sack statistics and mislead ourselves, but let's face it... our pass rush was far too often invisible. We beat the crap out of some OLs, but failed miserably in generating pressure on many. QB's had 5+ seconds to hit some big ones downfield, as our LBs and DL futilely pawed at OL.

Another thing, and I will be quicker here... I want us to draft an OT... period. If we take an OT in round 1, I expect them to feel that this OT can POSSIBLY play at either tackle spot. He would likely play RT in 2010 with a chance to play LT in the future... even if just due to injury. If he is without a doubt "only a RT"... sure okay... wait till round 2-3.

I agree that a different scheme would help in our coverage, but I would also like to point out that scheme is even more important in pass rushing than in one on one coverage. as we have seen from great pass rushing teams, it has alot to do with the blitzing schemes, confusing the O line, sending more players to the QB that can be blocked, so on and so forth. my argument was that we already have the athletes in place to pressure the QB. and a tweak of the scheme would benefit more than a change of personnel.

also in general, im not saying we shouldn't take a DE/OLB in the draft, or not go after a G, im just saying not in the first few rounds.

my ideal draft would go something like this.

1 a- Berry/ Haden [in that order]

1 b- Spiller


trade 2nd,3rd to move up and select Charles Brown USC OT

or

trade 2nd, 4th to move up and select Rodger Saffold Indiana OT

for the rest of the draft take BPA and raise the talent level, snagging a PR/KR in the process. I know this is a longshot, but so was crabtree last year and it worked out, i know there were different circumstances involved, but something similar could still play out. This way we get our shutdown DB, our change of pace back to help Gore and prolong his career, and our starting RT. win win win IMHO. Go Niners!!!

Toronto49er

Cool but wiht Seattle getting Whitehurst I think they killed your scenario. I think JPP is gonna fall a bit unless the Raiders take a flyer on him.

Whatever happens in the draft there will be players to be had that will help the team. The great question is what players we need and what players we want. For example
1. If Smith/Carr/Davis are not the QBs that management wants will they go for Bradford/Clausen if they could swing a deal.
2. If management believes that they can not sign Franklin then they may go Williams at NT.
3. If Haden/Berry drop near to our pick will we trade up to get them or wait to see who drops to us.
4. If the big 5 tackles are all off the board by our pick will we go for best guard/tackle potential in Iupati?
5. Will we go for game breaker Spiller or trade back if someone wants him bad enough to trade for.
6. I think DE is pretty much cared for but Graham at OLB would be a game breaker.

So many options and many potential scenarios to be evaluated. In any case we should get two players that could really help us. I'm just hoping that when all of the dust has settle that we realistically address the Oline in this draft. I don't care if it is Iupati and Saffold or Saffold/ Jerry, or Iupati, Saffold, Carter, Asomoah. I just want the line to be addressed so that Baas and Rachal, Wragge all are on the hotseat and we have a quality Oline when it is done. I don't even care if most of the line is rookies - Staley, Iupati, Heitmann, Carter/Asomaoh/Jerry, Williams. When the draft is over I want that part of the team settle seriously. Everything else can work to some degree. Then I will be happy.