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Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Trade Value Chart - An Accuracy Analysis

Figured this could be a valuable study to see if NFL teams are sticking to the draft value chart, so that we can, in turn, know if our mock drafts (or just draft day expectations) are realistic, wishful, or conservative. Draft chart can be found here: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

I am going to list trades that were made, and what that would equate to on the classic Jimmy Johnson chart. +/- is from the perspective of the team trading down, with positive meaning increased value. Will be interesting to see if certain teams repeatedly overpay or underpay, and if the team trading up is usually the one to "overpay." I was going to make a spreadsheet with a lot of smart calculations, but got lazy and did a quick run through.

49ers trade R1P13 (1150) and R7P245 (1) for R1P14 (1100) and R4P117 (60). (+9)
Pats trade R1P23 (760) for R2P37 (530) and R3P71 (235). (-5)
Vikes trade R1P25 (720) for R1P31 (600) and R4P117 (60) and R5P176 (19.8) (-40)
Dolphins trade R1P26 (700) for R1P30 (620) and R4P136 (38). (-42)
Browns trade R2P41 (490) for R2P44 (460) and R5P160 (26.2). (-4)
Jets trade R2P48 (420) for R2P59 (310) and R3P101 (96). (-14)
Ravens trade R2P60 (300) and R4P129 (43) for R2P71 (235) and R3P98 (108). (+/-0)
Seattle trades R2P64 (270) for R3P69 (245) and R5P148 (31). (-6)
Colts trade R3P75 (215) and R6P197 (11.4) for R3P85 (165) and R5P149 (30.6) and R6P182 (17.4). (-13.4)
Raiders trade R3P91 (136) and R5P159 (26.6) for R3P100 (100) and R4P139 (36.5) and R5P172 (21.4). (-4.6)
Vikings trade R3P105 (84) for R4P130 (42) and R5P169 (22.6) and R6P203 (9) and R7P244 (1). (-9.4)

I attempted to include all trades through the first three rounds that did not include the trading of a player or a future draft pick, as those do not have a quantifiable value as measured on this chart. All in all, I'd say that the chart, while still just a suggestion, is quite relevant. It would seem, based on this tiny sample size, that teams still value quantity as much as they do quality. Notice the Colts trade of R3P75. The Colts were already losing value before including the 6th round pick. However, it would seem giving up three picks just for one was considered too steep, and so a swap of 6ths was needed to get the deal done, despite this swinging the value even less in the trading back team's favor. The same situation occurred in the raiders trade of R3P91. Rather than getting three picks back in return for the one, at a pretty fair value, they had to throw in the 5th. When the Vikings traded away pick 105, they lost the value battle, and I doubt that a late 6th and 7th round pick will really amount to players worth moving down 25 spots from the 3rd to the 4th, but they clearly felt good with 4 picks for the price of 1.

Another thing I find interesting is that the trade value for each trade was pretty darn close to the chart for every trade.....except those at the end of the first round where the value was clearly in the favor of the team looking to trade up rather than those looking to trade down. This means that the end of the first round and the 5th round option is not as valuable as a lot of us like to think it is. The majority of teams likely think the talent gap between late 1st and early second is minimal, and thus lower demand lowers the cost. Anyone who mocked a uber lucrative trade back, or who criticized lynch for not making one, is likely dreaming. there was no way we were getting a top 45 pick and a top 75 pick for pick 31.
[ Edited by adrianlesnar on Apr 30, 2020 at 9:29 PM ]
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 18,851
This means that the end of the first round and the 5th round option is not as valuable as a lot of us like to think it is.

I agree with this.

Anyone who mocked a uber lucrative trade back, or who criticized lynch for not making one, is likely dreaming. there was no way we were getting a top 45 pick and a top 75 pick for pick 31

As for this, yes 2020 draft doesnt exactly show this. Though the Patriots trade at 23 kind of sorta does. A team moves up 14 spots at the price of a 3rd round pick. There was an exact trade in 2019 that reflects the 31 trade down in which you speak.

It just takes the right team(s) to be in the right spots looking for that one player at the right time.
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