Both teams have been tremendous all season. The Chiefs have star power at quarterback in the reigning MVP (for a few more hours) Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City is loaded with offensive stars and have some playmakers on defense. San Francisco has one of the top defenses in the NFL, a very capable quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, and a balanced offense that has showcased the ground game as of late. This should be one of the best Super Bowls we have witnessed over the last 25 years.
There have been a lot of things built up for the last two weeks as far as a common "media narrative" and I'm here to tell you: DO NOT BUY INTO IT!
Many in the media believe the Chiefs will not only win, but win big. This has been boiled down to what they believe is a lopsided quarterback matchup and is largely due to the 49ers and their ground game being the driving force behind their offenses in two playoff games, rather than big fantasy-football-type outings by Garoppolo. It all seems very simple. Since the 49ers don't seem to have a good passing game, the Chiefs will stop the run (after all, they stopped Derrick Henry, right?) and make Garoppolo have to beat them, which in their minds, he can't.
While there have been some amazing parallels between this year's 49ers team and those of 1981, 1984, 1994 and perhaps others, I'm only going to talk about one of them. I know there are several observant 49er fans out there who have noticed this right out of the gate, but not everyone was fortunate enough to watch Joe Montana during the glory years of the 1980s. The parallel I will bring up is Super Bowl 19 against Dan Marino and the Miami Dolphins. During the week between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, members of the media presented a very similar narrative as they stated that no one could stop Marino, the "Marks Brothers", and that Dolphin passing attack that produced 48 touchdowns and almost 5,100 yards during the 1984 season, something that had never been seen before. Joe Montana was referred to as a "wimpy quarterback."
While I'm not saying that the 49ers will blow out the Chiefs, I am saying not only can San Francisco win the game, but could win by more than ten points.
When and Where: Sunday February 2, 2020 - 3:30 PM PST - Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Here are the keys to the game:
1) Control the Clock with a Balanced Offensive Attack
Like the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl 25 and the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl 36, Kansas City has a great offense. The best defense is to keep that opposing offense on the bench. Patrick Mahomes cannot score if he doesn't have the ball.
Against the Chiefs' 26th ranked rushing defense, the 49ers have a great opportunity to run the football as they have done all through the playoffs. Kansas City will certainly sell out to stop the run and that's where the best play-action offense in the league can do damage. If the Chiefs send too many men to stop the run, Garoppolo will kill them in play-action, out of which the offense likes to operate, as seen by the highest rate of play-action plays in the NFL at 31%. If the 49ers can get their play-action game going after running the ball effectively, the offense will be able to sustain some long drives and score points. In turn, this will kill clock, keep Mahomes on the bench and do what Bill Belichick did against the Bills in 1990 and the Rams in 2001: Shorten the game.
Disclaimer: Don't think the 49ers cannot win this game if it turns into shootout-type game where Garoppolo has to pass more than 25 times. For more on why Jimmy Garoppolo is much better than you think, check out Al Sacco's gem from a few days ago.
Jimmy Garoppolo in the 8 games he's had 29-plus attempts in 2019:
— Al Sacco (@AlSacco49) January 31, 2020
201-of-291 (69% completion rate)
2,239 yards (279.8 ypg)
17 TD passes
7 INTS
4 fumbles lost
7.7 YPA#49ers scored 29.1 ppg
6-2 record
#49ers: 48
— Al Sacco (@AlSacco49) January 23, 2020
Saints: 46
Jimmy Garoppolo
26-of-35
349 yards
4 TDs
SF came back from deficits of 20-7 and 27-14 on the road.
Does that count as a shootout?????? https://t.co/EqcWakqky1
2) Win on First Down
If the 49ers are going to get those long drives going on offense, they need to win on first down. Running the ball will help this, but San Francisco is very balanced and will throw a lot on first down. Matt Bowen did a great job of showing how good Garoppolo is on play-action on first down.
More play-action stats on #49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo...
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) January 28, 2020
Throws to the middle of the field (inside the numbers) —
• 1,042 yards passing
• 11.33 YPA (yards per attempt)
Here's a piece we did on the SF play-action pass game vs. Cover 1. @NFLMatchup @gregcosell @nwagoner pic.twitter.com/QgOJED39mH
3) Pressure Patrick Mahomes and Keep Everything in Front of the Defense
While members of the media are completely disrespecting Garoppolo and the 49ers' passing attack, what they are not wrong about is how good Patrick Mahomes is. If San Francisco is going to win the game, the defense cannot allow Mahomes to have a clean pocket, nor can it allow him to make plays on the run. The 49ers' pass rush has to get home and bring the pressure.
In times past, great defenses have stopped great offenses largely because of pressure. Think back to the 2007 New England Patriots against the New York Giants. The Giants didn't just have good edge pressure. The defensive line had really good A and B gap pressure from the defensive tackles. This is where San Francisco has to be effective. If DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, and whoever plays inside can get pressure up the middle, it will be much more difficult for Mahomes to step up into the pocket or even escape the pocket.
Kansas City can kill defenses with big plays. The 49ers defense must keep everything in front of it and limit chunk plays and of course, long plays. San Francisco has been effective in all of these areas all season, but the defense has to ensure that it can do it one more time.
Some #49ers passing defense rankings:
— Al Sacco (@AlSacco49) January 23, 2020
Yards allowed per game: 169.2 (1st)
YPA: 5.9 (1st)
NYPA: 4.8 (1st)
Hurry %: 14.7% (1st)
Pressure %: 28.7% (2nd)
Total air yards allowed on completions: 1,320 (1st)
Yards lost by opposing team due to sacks: 376 (1st)
4) Win the Turnover Battle
For the 49ers, getting stops on third down are as good as turnovers. They allow the offense to get the ball back and keep Mahomes on the bench. When the Niner offense has the ball, it cannot turn it over. If there is a weakness on the 49ers, it has been giveaways this season. Jimmy Garoppolo has had moments and brain cramps where he has made some bad throws. He then responds great and usually scores afterwards, but in a game like this, there cannot be any errant throws that can set up Mahomes with a short field.
If the 49ers are turnover free in this game, there are pretty good odds that we will see San Francisco bring home its sixth Lombardi Trophy.
5) Control the Line of Scrimmage
San Francisco has the better offensive and defensive lines in this matchup and will need to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Frank Clark and Chris Jones need to be kept from getting to Garoppolo and as stated above, the 49ers will need to get to Mahomes.
Typically, this is the formula to winning a Super Bowl. If the 49ers are controlling the line of scrimmage the way they have throughout the playoffs and many other times during the season, expect a victory. Otherwise, we could see Kansas City fulfill the promises of many in the media and put up a lot of points against the San Francisco defense.
Score Prediction
This game is too much like Super Bowl 19. The 49ers defense will pressure Mahomes and not only keep him from making big plays, but will cause him to struggle. Jimmy Garoppolo will once again rise to the occasion in the midst of media criticism and unfair biased narratives. The Kyle Shanahan-led offense will dominate the line of scrimmage, the clock, and make plenty of plays that will result in more points scored than most think possible.
Jimmy Garoppolo will win the Super Bowl MVP and we will once again hear Randy Cross' quote in the background - "You all came to see an offense and the wrong one showed up!"
49ers 38, Chiefs 24