Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints odds and pick - Week 14, 2019

Dec 3, 2019 at 12:59 PM0


Videos are auto-populated by an affiliate. This site has no control over the videos that appear above.
The San Francisco 49ers were narrowly edged by the Baltimore Ravens in a much-anticipated game that lived up to the hype, could have easily gone the other way and literally came down to the final second as Justin Tucker kicked the game-winning field goal for a final score of 17-20. But the Niners have no time to dwell on that defeat as they now face another stiff road test against a team that many are calling the best team in the NFC in the New Orleans Saints. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday December 8th, 2019 at 10:00am PST (FOX)
Where: Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: 49ers +3, o/u 44

New Orleans Saints
The Saints took care of the Atlanta Falcons 26-18 on Thanksgiving evening, giving them a little more time to rest for their Week 14 contest.

After thirteen weeks, New Orleans ranks 5th in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at 25.3 percent (represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games), 6th in offensive weighted DVOA at 13.6 percent and 5th in weighted defensive DVOA at -10.1 percent.

The Saints' offense ranks 13th with 361.4 yards per game, 9th with 24.8 points per game, 9th with 254.1 passing yards per game and 17th with 107.3 rushing yards per game. New Orleans' defense is 10th in giving up 323.5 yards per game, 12th in yielding 20.7 points per game, 17th with 234.9 passing yards conceded per game and 3rd in allowing 88.6 rushing yards per game.

The Saints' offensive line is ranked 1st in run blocking and 7th in pass protection. New Orleans' defensive line ranks 8th in adjusted line yards and 7th in adjusted sack rate. Drew Brees ranks 12th with a DYAR of 431 and 9th with a total QBR of 61.0. The Saints have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 5.6 and are 8-4 ATS and 6-6 to the over/under so far this season.

San Francisco 49ers
Through thirteen weeks, San Francisco is ranked 2nd in weighted DVOA at 33.0 percent, 10th in weighted offensive DVOA at 4.4 percent and 2nd in weighted defensive DVOA at -27.6 percent.

The 49ers' offense is 6th with 378.0 yards per game, 2nd with 29.1 points per game, 16th with 230.0 passing yards per game and 2nd with 148.0 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 1st in allowing 250.9 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 15.3 points per game, 1st in giving up 134.3 passing yards per game and 22nd in yielding 116.7 rushing yards per game.

The Niners' offensive line is ranked 12th in run blocking and 9th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 14th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 10th with a DYAR of 541 and 12th with a total QBR of 58.4. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 8.4 and are 7-4-1 ATS and 5-7 to the over/under this season.

Prediction
Several factors play into New Orleans' favor in this contest, including having the advantage of playing at home with longer rest against a Niners team that will be playing in its second consecutive road game at the early start time after San Francisco played an emotional and physical contest against the best team in the NFL.

Some might say that the 49ers might be due for a letdown, especially in the famed Superdome against a Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees, but both the Saints' home-field advantage and Drew Brees might not be the same as they once were. New Orleans is 3-3 ATS at home this season and since coming off of their Week 9 bye, the Saints lost to the Falcons 9-26 as 14 point favorites in Week 10 at home and barely scraped by the Carolina Panthers 34-31 as 10 point favorites in Week 12 at home, needing Carolina to miss a 28-yard field goal with two minutes remaining in that game to win on a last second field goal.

Could one imagine the 49ers giving up 31 points and almost losing the game to the Carolina Panthers at home this season?

We've seen the Niners' defense struggle against mobile quarterbacks but do well by pressuring traditional pocket passers, and Drew Brees is a traditional pocket passer who had hand surgery that kept him out until Week 8 and he and New Orleans have not faced a defense like San Francisco's this season. New Orleans plays in one of the weaker divisions in the NFL this year and among all of the Saints' 2019 opponents so far, the Chicago Bears have the highest ranked weighted defensive DVOA at 7th.

Some of the toll of playing back-to-back road games at the early start time will be somewhat neutralized by the Niners deciding to stay in Florida at the IMG Academy after Week 13, not unlike how they stayed in Youngstown, Ohio following their Week 1 game in Tampa Bay; and after watching Seattle beat Minnesota in Week 13, we anticipate that San Francisco knows the stakes of this match up with New Orleans and will not allow a let down in a game with such monumental playoff implications.

We had New Orleans winning this game in our preseason analysis but expect San Francisco's offense to be at much closer to full strength than it has been in recent weeks, with Jimmy Garoppolo finding some success in the passing game, and for the defense to significantly disrupt Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense in another close, lower scoring game. San Francisco has not lost a game by more than 3 points all year and is 2.8 points higher than New Orleans in ESPN FPI score. If one considers home field advantage being worth 3 points, then this line should be closer to even, so if you can still get 3 points with San Francisco, they're worth taking. Pick: 49ers +3

Season:
SU: 6-6
ATS: 4-8

Poll

  • What is your best bet for Niners at Saints on 12/8/19?
  • 49ers +3
    73%
  • Over 44
    11%
  • Saints -3
    10%
  • Under 44
    6%
  • 1,210 votes
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



Report: 49ers offered "way more" than No. 2 pick for Kirk Cousins in 2017

By Rohan Chakravarthi
Sep 15

The San Francisco 49ers and their quarterback situation has been something to monitor ever since head coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017, with the team going from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance to Brock Purdy, with several other names in the mix over the years. One of those names? Quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has a connection with Shanahan dating back to their Washington days, with rumors circulating that the two would reunite upon the head coach's arrival in San Francisco when the signal-caller became a free agent in 2018. However, the 49ers never reached that stage, instead pulling the trigger on a trade for Garoppolo from the New England Patriots at the 2017 trade deadline for a second-round pick. Well, that wasn't the full story between the



49ers practice and media schedule leading to Week 3 matchup vs. Giants

By Site Staff
Sep 18

The San Francisco 49ers will hold one full practice, a late Tuesday session, this week as the team prepares for its Week 3 matchup against the New York Giants. While it isn't specifically noted below, there will likely be a walk-though on Wednesday. Head coach Kyle Shanahan, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, and quarterback Brock Purdy are scheduled to speak with the media. The 49ers will make the press conferences available at 49ers.com, on the team's official mobile app, and YouTube page. The schedule, which is subject to



49ers vs. Giants: How to watch, stream, and listen to the Week 3 matchup

By Site Staff
Sep 19

The San Francisco 49ers return for their first home game of the 2023 season as they host the New York Giants at Levi's Stadium on Prime Video's Thursday Night Football. This matchup marks the 43rd in a series that is tied 21-21. The 49ers lead the all-time series at home against the Giants 12-10 and look to earn their second win against the team in four seasons. Previous game The Niners are coming off a 30-23 victory against the Los Angeles Rams. RB Christian McCaffrey led the offense with 116 rushing yards and one touchdown on 20 attempts, while WR Deebo Samuel added 63 receiving yards on six catches to go along with an 11-yard rushing touchdown. QB Brock Purdy completed 17 of his 25 passing attempts for 206 yards and scored a one-yard rushing



49ers Game Day Eats - Whats New at Levi's Stadium

By Justin Wong
Sep 20

Two weeks into the NFL season, fans can finally look forward to the San Francisco 49ers' home opener under the national spotlight. What's on the menu this year? I had the chance to preview some of the upcoming bites at the Levi's Stadium Concessions Showcase. I checked out Levi's Stadium food selection along with a couple of new local vendors for the upcoming season. We were introduced to Levi's Stadium and Levy Restaurants' new Executive Chef, Alvin Kabiling, who takes the reign after working with former executive chef Jon Severson for the last several years. Kabiling recognizes that many local fans are "foodies"


Featured

More by Winston Chung

More Articles

Share 49ersWebzone