Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos odds and pick - Week 14, 2018

Dec 6, 2018 at 8:31 AM0


Videos are auto-populated by an affiliate. This site has no control over the videos that appear above.
It was just like old times as the San Francisco 49ers got annihilated in Seattle to the tune of a 43-16 trouncing in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Seahawks. Even Kyle Shanahan lost his composure and it now seems that all the F-bombs and innovating coaching in the world can't stop the momentum building toward locking up the number one pick in 2019, as they have nothing but potential playoff teams for the rest of their schedule, starting with the rising Denver Broncos this Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday December 9th at 1:05pm PST (CBS)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: Broncos -4, total at 45.5

Denver Broncos
The Broncos have emerged as playoff contenders after beating the Steelers and Chargers during their current three-game winning streak. Denver's offense is ranked 14th with 365.7 yards per game, 17th with 23.0 points per game and 9th with a weighted offense of 10.3 percent. The Broncos' passing and rushing attacks are ranked 23rd and 5th, respectively.

Denver's defense has re-established itself as a dominant unit, ranking 25th with 382.8 yards allowed per game (though this has been improving lately), 11th with 21.8 points conceded per game and 3rd with a weighted defense of -14.6 percent. The Broncos' passing and rushing defenses are both ranked 23rd.

Case Keenum is ranked 22nd with a DYAR of 140 and 29th with a total QBR of 47.0. Denver is 5th with a weighted DVOA of 23.9 percent, 6-5-1 ATS and 3-8-1 to the over/under this season, covering the spread in its last three games.

San Francisco 49ers
Sinceits win against the Raiders, San Francisco's offense has gradually declined as more teams have figured out Nick Mullens' tendencies. The Niners' offense is 15th with 363.3 yards per game, 22nd with 21.3 points per game and 29th in weighted offense at -16.8 percent. San Francisco's rushing and passing offenses are ranked 21st and 7th, respectively.

The 49ers' defense has been tossed around like a rag doll the past few games, with no let up for the rest of the season, ranking 12th with 348.8 yards surrendered per game, 29th with 28.0 points per game and 26th in weighted defense at 8.2 percent. The Niners' passing and rushing defenses are ranked 13th and 15th, respectively.

Nick Mullens has a DYAR of 72 and total QBR of 57.1. The Niners are 31st with a weighted DVOA of -28.3 percent, 3-9 ATS, 7-5 to the over/under this season, failing to cover in their last three contests.

Prediction
Since vowing to bet against the 49ers in each and every game since their collapse in Arizona, we have improved our ATS record this season and we see no reason to stop now, particularly in this match-up of two teams heading in opposite directions. Case Keenum's numbers may not look much better than Nick Mullens' on paper, but full season statistics are misleading when considering that the Broncos are currently playing much better football than the Niners, reflected by the significantly superior weighted statistics as documented above.

After getting absolutely humiliated by Russell Wilson last week, we do expect San Francisco to show a little more pride this week, which could lead to the game being more tightly contested and lower scoring, making us lean toward the under. But Philip Lindsey and the Broncos defense will ultimately pound the Niners into submission, leading to the win and cover. Pick: Denver -4

Season:
4-7 ATS
8-3 SU

Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers vs Broncos on 12/9/18?
  • Broncos -4
    52%
  • 49ers +4
    30%
  • Under 45.5
    11%
  • Over 45.5
    7%
  • 113 votes
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



Why Daniel Jeremiah favors Graham Barton for the 49ers' first-round draft pick

By David Bonilla
Feb 22

NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah recently unveiled his updated mock draft, pinpointing the San Francisco 49ers' offensive line as an area for improvement. In his draft scenario, Jeremiah projects the 49ers selecting former Duke left tackle Graham Barton, envisioning a transition to guard in Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme. However, some have questioned whether Barton warrants a first-round selection. On Thursday, Jeremiah addressed these concerns in a conference call with reporters, defending his choice of Barton within his mock



Purdy or Kaepernick? Which QB does 49ers great Patrick Willis pick?

By David Bonilla
Feb 22

Brock Purdy has proven himself an impressive and promising young player for the San Francisco 49ers. It's difficult to argue against that—although some continue to try. Purdy led the 49ers to the Super Bowl in his second NFL season and set a new single-season franchise record with 4,280 passing yards. Throughout the season, 49ers great and soon-to-be Hall of Fame linebacker Patrick Willis has voiced his admiration for Purdy and the team's achievements. However, when faced with a choice between Purdy and Colin Kaepernick, Willis sided with his former teammate. During a recent podcast appearance with Robert Griffin III, Willis was asked to choose between Kaepernick from 2012 and Purdy from 2023. "I'm going to have to take Kap," declared



Packers add 49ers' Aaron Hill as strength and conditioning coach

By Site Staff
Feb 20

Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reported that the Green Bay Packers hired Aaron Hill as the team's strength and conditioning coach. Hill brings four years of experience as the assistant strength and conditioning coach with the 49ers, where he worked under Dustin Perry, the team's head strength and conditioning coach. Hill worked under 49ers strength and conditioning coach Dustin Perry. The Packers are hiring 49ers assistant strength coach Aaron Hill as their new head of strength and conditioning, per source.— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman)



Commanders hire 49ers assistant Anthony Lynn as run-game coordinator

By David Bonilla
Feb 14

The San Francisco 49ers are losing their assistant head coach and running backs coach, Anthony Lynn. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Washington Commanders are hiring Lynn to be their run-game coordinator. "Commanders made a run at Lynn last year, but get him this year," wrote Schefter. "Here's one reason why: Lynn is close with HC Dan Quinn and GM Adam Peters." Lynn reunites with Peters, who served as the 49ers' assistant general manager since 2021 before becoming the Commanders' general manager in January. Washington hired Quinn as their new head coach earlier this month. A big move for


Latest

More by Winston Chung

More Articles

Share 49ersWebzone