Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos odds and pick - Week 14, 2018
It was just like old times as the San Francisco 49ers got annihilated in Seattle to the tune of a 43-16 trouncing in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Seahawks. Even Kyle Shanahan lost his composure and it now seems that all the F-bombs and innovating coaching in the world can't stop the momentum building toward locking up the number one pick in 2019, as they have nothing but potential playoff teams for the rest of their schedule, starting with the rising Denver Broncos this Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday December 9th at 1:05pm PST (CBS)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: Broncos -4, total at 45.5
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have emerged as playoff contenders after beating the Steelers and Chargers during their current three-game winning streak. Denver's offense is ranked 14th with 365.7 yards per game, 17th with 23.0 points per game and 9th with a weighted offense of 10.3 percent. The Broncos' passing and rushing attacks are ranked 23rd and 5th, respectively.
Denver's defense has re-established itself as a dominant unit, ranking 25th with 382.8 yards allowed per game (though this has been improving lately), 11th with 21.8 points conceded per game and 3rd with a weighted defense of -14.6 percent. The Broncos' passing and rushing defenses are both ranked 23rd.
Case Keenum is ranked 22nd with a DYAR of 140 and 29th with a total QBR of 47.0. Denver is 5th with a weighted DVOA of 23.9 percent, 6-5-1 ATS and 3-8-1 to the over/under this season, covering the spread in its last three games.
San Francisco 49ers
Sinceits win against the Raiders, San Francisco's offense has gradually declined as more teams have figured out Nick Mullens' tendencies. The Niners' offense is 15th with 363.3 yards per game, 22nd with 21.3 points per game and 29th in weighted offense at -16.8 percent. San Francisco's rushing and passing offenses are ranked 21st and 7th, respectively.
The 49ers' defense has been tossed around like a rag doll the past few games, with no let up for the rest of the season, ranking 12th with 348.8 yards surrendered per game, 29th with 28.0 points per game and 26th in weighted defense at 8.2 percent. The Niners' passing and rushing defenses are ranked 13th and 15th, respectively.
Nick Mullens has a DYAR of 72 and total QBR of 57.1. The Niners are 31st with a weighted DVOA of -28.3 percent, 3-9 ATS, 7-5 to the over/under this season, failing to cover in their last three contests.
Prediction
Since vowing to bet against the 49ers in each and every game since their collapse in Arizona, we have improved our ATS record this season and we see no reason to stop now, particularly in this match-up of two teams heading in opposite directions. Case Keenum's numbers may not look much better than Nick Mullens' on paper, but full season statistics are misleading when considering that the Broncos are currently playing much better football than the Niners, reflected by the significantly superior weighted statistics as documented above.
After getting absolutely humiliated by
Russell Wilson last week, we do expect San Francisco to show a little more pride this week, which could lead to the game being more tightly contested and lower scoring, making us lean toward the under. But Philip Lindsey and the Broncos defense will ultimately pound the Niners into submission, leading to the win and cover.
Pick: Denver -4
Season:
4-7 ATS
8-3 SU
Poll
- What is your best bet for 49ers vs Broncos on 12/9/18?
Broncos -4
49ers +4
Under 45.5
Over 45.5
- 113 votes
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.
More San Francisco 49ers News
49ers expect Brock Purdy to begin throwing this week
The San Francisco 49ers expect their second-year quarterback, Brock Purdy, to start throwing again this week. Purdy underwent surgery on March 10 to repair the tear of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow, an injury sustained on January 29 in the NFC Championship Game. The expectations were always for the quarterback to start throwing again in early June.
Purdy won't be doing anything excessive at first. He will likely be limited as this portion of his rehabilitation begins, and his workload will ramp up in the coming months.
Purdy's return timeline remains up in the air. However, the team will know more once he starts throwing again. Head
Purdy? Lance? Darnold? 49ers insider predicts Week 1 starting QB
Everyone is trying to predict the San Francisco 49ers' starting quarterback when the team takes the field during Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Will it be Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or Sam Darnold?
Purdy started some light throwing this week while under some careful supervision. He is nearly three months removed from the surgery to repair the tear of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow, an injury suffered during the NFC Championship Game.
Purdy's workload will ramp up, and the 49ers remain hopeful that he can begin throwing normally before the start of the regular season—maybe even sometime during training camp. The second-year quarterback hasn't had any setbacks, so that is certainly
49ers cancel final week of OTAs, move up minicamp dates
The San Francisco 49ers announced today that they are canceling the third and final week of organized team activities (OTAs) and moving up their mandatory minicamp to next week.
The team's mandatory minicamp was initially scheduled to begin on June 13 and run through June 15. It will now begin on June 6, with practices at 10:40 a.m. PT on Tuesday and 10:50 a.m. PT on Wednesday. Both sessions will be open to the media.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan and select players are scheduled to speak with reporters on Tuesday, and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and players will field questions from the media on Wednesday.
Initially scheduled to be a three-day minicamp, the 49ers will likely give players the third day off from practice, as they have done in
Breer: 49ers QB Brock Purdy throwing without pain, on track to be ready by Week 1
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy started throwing again last week, his first significant throwing session (with a football, at least) since the NFC Championship Game in January when he tore the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow. Purdy underwent surgery on March 10 to repair the damage and isn't expected to be cleared to hit the practice field for several months.
The 49ers liked what they saw from his limited work last week.
"He's just had one session thus far, but we're incredibly encouraged by that," general manager John Lynch said last week during an interview on SiriusXM NFL Radio. "And Brock's a worker. If you give him a
