Reason why cutting A.J. Jenkins makes no sense, cap wise

Aug 12, 2013 at 1:35 PM


There's a lot of chatter around 49ers sites on whether to keep, what seems to most, a bust, in 2012 1st-round pick, WR A.J. Jenkins. The problem is his cap hit would cripple the 49ers salary cap.

The only way to get rid of salary in a positive way, is to trade him. But who will take on his salary, which includes guaranteed base salaries of $705,797 in 2013, and $1,021,594 in 2014, plus non-guaranteed base salary of $660,000 in 2015, and a $677,309 roster bonus due on the 5th day of the 2015 new league year. He also has money left in proration. $872,500 for 2013-2015, total of $2,617,500.

If cut right now, the team takes a cap hit of $2,599,891 for just 2013, that seems fine, since we have just over $7.2 million in cap space by my numbers.

In 2014 gets worse, because we have, by my numbers, $5.3 million in cap space. And in 2014 we would eat $1.745 million in dead money. That all takes away from the cap room.

I understand that AJ hasn't come on yet, but you have to give him another season to prove himself. It's not smart to hurt yourself long term, especially when Colin Kaepernick, Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Aldon Smith, & Chris Culliver, the considered top 5 are unsigned for 2015.

If we eat cap room, we could potentially lose someone, especially since some want CB Tarell Brown back. He will probably want a deal that averages $6.5-$7 million a year. Which would be out of our reach of his market value.

I'm in no way saying I am happy with Jenkins play, there is no excuse for catching, then getting stripped of the ball so easy. But it makes no sense to cut him.

Please comment, and I will get to each comments. Also check me on Twitter @AB83Rules, and check out NinerCapHell.com

Thank you for reading, please comment on NCH, and send me your questions on Twitter, I will more than happy to answer any salary cap related questions.
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


16 Comments

  • Michael
    Can you clarify something? If we want to put Jenkins on the practice squad, we have to cut him first, thus terminating his original contract and leaving us with all that dead money, correct? And if someone claims him on waivers, his original contract does not carry over to his new team and we're still stuck with the dead money?
    Aug 19, 2013 at 1:31 AM
    0
    Response: We would have had too. Now that he is traded, he is KCs problem
  • Scott
    Keep him for that money. See if he can return kicks and maybe he will learn how to handle CB's and Safeties in the future. It is almost like he's a kid playing against men, which is pretty much what it is. Lettem grow, he is signed and no one else is gonna pay that for him. He needs to take Jerry up on his offer.
    Aug 17, 2013 at 11:41 PM
    0
    Response: I think it would have been a good thing to try him there, but it was the right time to deal him
  • Lucky Phil
    What are we going to do about this, Hurley? I hear a lot about cap hits but I'm gonna need a serious bong hit if I see this S.O.B Friday night!
    Aug 15, 2013 at 7:44 PM
    0
    Response: Happy now? Good deal for both teams
  • Mike
    Let faces it: Aj Jenkins has been a bust. We should have taken the TE out of Stanford who is doing well for the Colt. Remember JJ Stokes that everyone was so high on and was a bust? How long do the 49ers have to keep Jenkins before they realize that they made a mistake? To keep him to save face it not a good reason to keep him.
    Aug 15, 2013 at 3:14 PM
    0
    Response: I wouldn't go as far as to call him a complete bust, if he turns it around, then he isnt a bust in my eyes.
  • Edd
    Great analysis, always follow the money. What disturbs me most is that, except for Baalke, very few thought this kid was 1st round material. Given Baalke's reputation for finding diamonds in the rough, I think most fans see this as a failure of talent evaluation.
    Aug 14, 2013 at 6:27 PM
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    Response: I think Baalke knew or knows something we don't know. I still have hope for AJ.
  • NinerFanInMaine
    What exactly is the additional impact next year? Right now next year's cap room already includes his salary and pro-rated bonus. The only 'hit' woul be $s that accelerate this year or next. The indirect hit is the cost of the new player on the roster (which is relatively small or zero if it is not high enough to count). Not that I want him cut but seems to me cap impact is pretty small actually.
    Aug 14, 2013 at 9:16 AM
    0
    Response: It's around $2M this year and an additional $1M next year. But when I looked at the cap, we may only have 3M for 2013, not including a potential(Not likely though) release of Jenkins.
  • olapac
    Would our salary cap situation differ any this year and/or next if AJ was picked up off waivers vs. if he passed through waivers and signed with a team as a free agent?
    Aug 12, 2013 at 8:58 PM
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    Response: If he was picked off, we wouldn't eat the guaranteed base salaries, just prorated bonus money, $872,500 for each season thru 2015. It would be 1/3 of the total in 2013, and then the rest in 2014.
  • mbniner
    I reluctantly have to agree with you. We have to hope that he gets his head on straight and gets out of this funk. If you look at the consequences it probably means that the Niners keep 6 WRs with 4 suited up for games. My guess is that they are Boldin, Williams, Collie (if healthy), Patton, Lockette and Jenkins. I think that Moore, as good as he has looked, is the odd man out.
    Aug 12, 2013 at 8:52 PM
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    Response: I think Moore may have the nod right now, but I can see Collie making it, as long as he is healthy.
  • Peter
    Good analysis. It could turn out we keep Crabs and then AJ & Patton make an impact this season but we'll have to wait more for the preseason and regular season for that to unfold.
    Aug 12, 2013 at 7:25 PM
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    Response: Exactly. We also could keep Boldin if he wants to continue his career in the Bay Area.
  • gw2
    Crabtree caught 175 passes his first three years while he was "getting with the program." Also, the 2013/2014 timing of the cap hit is an artificial thing, would make zero difference. Cap room can be carried forward under this CBA.
    Aug 12, 2013 at 6:57 PM
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    Response: Crabs was a high pick, AJ was the 30th pick. And WR is a tough position for a rookie to come in and learn, and get playing time, when we had 5 ahead of him, all of which were used for their unique talent.
  • Shane
    I don't think it's fair to even compare crab to Jenkins. Crabtree was hurt but his first 3 years when he played he played well. He was a consensus top ten pick coming out of college. Crabtree is also bigger and stronger and at full strength looks sharp. Jenkins was considered a 3rd pick by a lot of teams, he is much more slight, and for god sake he can't stay on his own two feet in nonpadded practices. He hasn't had back to back days in 2 years that he has looked sharp. Finally, He is the most scrutinized guy on the team and you hear nothing about being the first guy in and last to leave. Or working extra. The extra level of desire is not there. Thank you for this article, helps me and others understand why we can't cut him and I hope he comes around. But it's doubtful, he is nothing like Crabtree
    Aug 12, 2013 at 6:17 PM
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    Response: I wouldn't really compare the 2, just that Crabs was a higher pick, and was suppose to, or expected to get playing time on a bad 49ers team, but Jenkins may of had his hopes to play. Or some expected PT. But he had 5 guys ahead of him on the Depth Chart.
  • ladale
    A.J. Jenkins gets separation and open. You all saw this kid in one preseason game and you've essentially ended his career. A game in which he was open plenty but the Q.B. was staring down other targets. It wasn't long ago Vernon Davis was called hands of stone and just an athlete. So just lay off.
    Aug 12, 2013 at 5:40 PM
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    Response: I think Jenkins has the talent, just needs to get confident, and given opportunities. Hope we see more on Friday.
  • Big Al
    Keeping an unmotivated chronic underachiever who avoids physical contact and drops everything in sight hurts the team far more than the salary cap hit will. He simply doesn't fit the mold of a 49er receiver. Time isn't the answer. This guy just doesn't have it. Crabtree, Boldin, Williams, Manningham and Patton are a lock. No way we cut Collie or Hall or Moore or Osgood and keep AJ. He is toast and is worse than Rashaun Woods and Harry Babcock, two legendary first round WR flops. At least they caught a few passes.
    Aug 12, 2013 at 3:25 PM
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    Response: And there is no way the 49ers eat the money, just because fans think he is a bust. I looked at the numbers again, and we would have $3M for 2013, because of the NFI, PUP and IR players, plus P-Squad, and all 53 men on roster.
  • SportsFan
    AB, I thought we had something like 20 million in cap space for next year. If we are only at 5.4 how are we going to extend or sign anyone?
    Aug 12, 2013 at 3:16 PM
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    Response: $20M is for 2015. I don't expect to extend everyone in 1 year. But we have Carlos Rogers, and Ahmad Brooks making insane money, and high base salaries, so a pay cut or a release would save cap room.
  • MrBriteside
    Give the guy some more time. Look how long it took Crabtree to get with the program.
    Aug 12, 2013 at 2:34 PM
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    Response: Yep. Crabs took 3 years to get himself ready to play. He missed 3 years of preseason. Not to compare Crabs and AJ, but time is needed.
  • Caurick
    Awesome analysis. I've been wondering about this exact situation. Is it possible they could accelarate the entire cap hit to this year? Would that help long term?
    Aug 12, 2013 at 1:47 PM
    0
    Response: Thanks Caurick. Unfortunately we can't anymore. All would be prorated. The entire base salaries guaranteed go in 2013, which would be fine. But losing an extra 1 Mill will hurt us when 2014 comes.

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