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Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


Mike Clay’s 49ers projections for the 2024 season: Defense

May 18, 2024 at 9:35 AM



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ESPN's Mike Clay has unveiled his projections for the 2024 season, forecasting the San Francisco 49ers to secure 12.4 wins in his analytics model. These predictions delve into individual player performances, offering insights into what we might expect from the team's defense in the upcoming season. Let's look into the defensive projections and highlight some of the top performers from this unit.

Click here to view the offensive projections.

Some key factors to keep in mind:

  • The numbers shown are projections for the 2024 NFL regular season (Weeks 1-18).
  • Most players max out at 15 projected games played due to injury rates, as most players won't play 17 games.
  • Due to the nature of analytics modeling, some numbers that one might expect to be whole numbers are not.

Defensive end Nick Bosa finished his 2023 campaign with 10.5 sacks and is projected to hit the 10-sack mark again in 2024 while recording 56 tackles in 833 snaps. Newly acquired pass rusher Leonard Floyd is expected to rank second with 7.5 sacks, marking his lowest total since 2019. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is projected to come in third with six sacks.

Clay forecasts linebacker Fred Warner to achieve an impressive career-high and team-leading 144 tackles while registering 1.5 sacks. Regarding interceptions, cornerback Charvarius Ward is projected to lead the 49ers with 3.1 in this analytics model.

Below are Clay's full projections for the 49ers defense.

Pos Player Snap Tkl Sack INT
DI Javon Hargrave 683 53 6.0 0.0
DI Maliek Collins 641 39 4.1 0.0
DI Jordan Elliott 427 24 1.9 0.0
DI Kevin Givens 320 21 1.2 0.0
DI T.Y. McGill 43 3 0.2 0.0
ED Nick Bosa 833 56 10.0 0.0
ED Leonard Floyd 587 38 7.5 0.0
ED Drake Jackson 320 19 3.3 0.0
ED Yetur Gross-Matos 267 20 1.7 0.1
ED Robert Beal Jr. 160 11 1.4 0.0
LB Fred Warner 1015 144 1.5 1.7
LB De'Vondre Campbell 550 77 0.6 0.5
LB Dre Greenlaw 452 65 0.7 0.5
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles 195 25 0.3 0.2
LB Dee Winters 85 11 0.2 0.1
CB Charvarius Ward 1004 76 0.2 3.1
CB Deommodore Lenoir 961 83 0.5 1.4
CB Ambry Thomas 587 50 0.0 1.2
CB Renardo Green 288 22 0.1 0.5
CB Rock Ya-Sin 75 5 0.0 0.1
S Talanoa Hufanga 961 89 0.8 1.8
S Ji'Ayir Brown 961 94 0.4 2.6
S George Odum 224 21 0.1 0.4
S Tayler Hawkins 75 7 0.1 0.2
S Malik Mustapha 32 3 0.0 0.1
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