OTC's Post-Combine/Pre-Free Agency Mock 3/3/15

As we get closer and closer to the draft, the projections begin to round out a little clearer, but the "needs assessments" still have much time to evolve with free agency still yet to begin. Even so, knowing how this team likes to build through the draft, it is somewhat easier to project some of what they might do. A simple look at what I predict:

Free Agency:
-Gore comes back.
-Skuta returns for his value as backup OLB and special teams.
-Team re-signs whoever's cheaper between Cox and Culliver. Both have played inside and outside, both have had past off-field stuff.
-Expecting the team to bring back Ginn to compete for KR/PR duties. Unlikely to see significant PT at WR. Ellington is simply a better blocker and if he continues to develop will wind up being a better overall WR than Ginn ever was, and rather quickly. Most likely increased time at WR for Ellington will mean less time as returner in order to keep him healthier.

Other notes:
Team brings in a veteran backup QB.

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2015 NFL Draft

1. Cameron Erving-C/OT/OG-Florida State, 6-5 313 5.15
I think Erving is a serious darkhorse candiate to be taken by the 49ers in round one. Erving is looked at as a day one starter virtually anywhere on the OL, and with Iupati not returning, Jonathan Martin struggling as the swing tackle, and Boone/Davis/Kilgore/Marcus Martin all suffering season-ending injuries last season, I think OL is our top need. The injured players coming back, including basically a rookie in Brandon Thomas, are no sure thing, and while Dillon Farrell is promising depth, Looney simply isn't cutting it and he'll be fighting for his life to make the team this off-season if we add more pieces to the OL like we should. Adding Erving would immediately fill a need for us and give us tremendous flexibility and competition along the offensive line.

2. Phillip Dorsett-WR-Miami, 5-10 185 4.33
Dorsett was second in the nation with average yards per reception, stating his case as one of the country's top deep threats. He doesn't have the same value as a returner that Tyler Lockett has, but his experience as the top option in a pro style offense and is arguably the fastest true receiver in the draft. While he and Lockett are both great prospects, the one thing Dorsett has in his favor is the pro style system and a larger body of work beating press coverage. The 49ers have already met with Dorsett, and while I think it could be posturing to take a different guy, I don't have any doubts that Dorsett is on the radar of consideration.

3. Henry Anderson-DE-Stanford, 6-6 296 5.06
Boasts a perfect 3-4 DE frame and has the experience and production (8 sacks, 14.5 TFL) in the scheme to warrant consideration here. We'll see if he rises further than this at the combine, but Anderson is a guy I think the 49ers would love to add to the DE rotation. After the depature of McDonald and potential loss of "Cowboy", the 49ers must certainly think about reloading at DL. Anderson was reportedly dominant at the Senior Bowl.

4. Javorius Allen-RB-USC, 6-0 220 4.54
Excellent moves in the open field, terrific vision, adept pass catching ability, and strong pass blocking ability all make Allen a top 100 caliber pick. The depth at RB in this class will have the 49ers in a good position to land another strong back, and I expect them to pick one within the first four rounds. Allen comes from a pro-style system and while he's not among the elite in this class, he's a very good prospect in his own right. The 49ers have drafted a running back each year over the past few years and I don't expect that to change. Other potential targets could be Jeremy Langford or David Johnson.

4. Justin Cox-CB/S-Mississippi State, 6-1 191 4.36
Highly athletic defensive back who is experienced at a number of positions in the secondary, having played safety and corner. His fluidity allows him to stay with quicker receivers better than most other big corners and while he played safety in 2014 to fill a need for MSU, I think the 49ers would look at him like Culliver, and target him for the CB position. His numbers on the stat sheet aren't anything special and the tackling issues knock him down a peg as he needs to learn to wrap up better, but his physicality and explosiveness would make him a player worth taking here for many teams.

5. Kyle Emanuel-OLB-North Dakota State, 6-3 255 4.77
Small school status and lower level of play definitely knocks him down a few pegs, but his combine workouts were terrific, posting arguably the best workout among OLBs outside of Vic Beasley. Emanuel's workout numbers wouldn't mean too much if he didn't have the production to back it up -- but he does. He was a unanimous dual All-American, meaning he was an Academic All-American as well as a 1st team FCS All American, as well as the conference Defensive Player of the Year, leading all of the FCS with 19.5 sacks, 32.5 tackles for loss, and 3 forced fumbles. Certainly would be a dynamite player to give our defensive coaches the opportunity to work with.

6. Sean Hickey-OT/OG-Syracuse, 6-5 309 5.14
Like some of the other 49ers OG's, Hickey is a versatile college tackle that did a fine job there in college, but to some scouts is projected to be a better fit inside. Hickey, in particular, is seen as an excellent fit for a zone blocking scheme. With the 49ers moving in that direction, it shouldn't be any surprise that this is one player they already showed interest in at the East West Shrine game this year. His experience would allow him to serve as an additional reserve for both the OT and OG positions.

7. Jordan Taylor-WR-Rice, 6-5 210 4.54
Reportedly did very well at the East-West Shrine game practices and his production in leading his team over the past few years coupled with this have led many to believe he might be better than expected at the pro level. The knocks on him are that sometimes he rounds his routes, lack of elite athleticism, and his level of competition not coming from a major conference, but if you've seen Taylor play, you would know he is a both a better athlete and better prospect than he's given credit for. More than worth using a 7th rounder on.

7. Rory Anderson-TE-South Carolina, 6-5 244 4.73
Injuries really killed his stock but Rory fits the prototypical late round Baalke gamble with low risk, high reward. Rory has massive potential and a lot of skill to work with when healthy and is well worth the risk at this point in the draft. The 49ers seem somewhat interested in the TE position in this draft, but I don't see them jumping on a player unless they totally blew them away. Vernon may not be back after next season, but we don't know if McDonald, Carrier, or maybe even Millard as a hybrid would emerge as viable replacements.


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Quick-look Expected FinalDepth Chart:
RB: Gore, Hyde, Hunter, Allen*
TE: Davis, McDonald, Carrier, Anderson*
WR: Boldin, Patton, Ellington, Dorsett*, Taylor*, Ginn
OG: *Erving, Boone, Thomas, Martin (C/G), Farrell
OT: Staley, Davis, J.Martin, Hickey*
C: Kilgore, Martin (C/G)

DE: Justin, Carradine, Dorsey, Anderson*, TJE, Dial
NT: Williams, Dorsey (NT/DE), Dial (NT/DE)
OLB: Aldon, Lynch, Skuta, Emanuel*, Lemonier
CB: Brock, Cox/Culliver, Dontae Johnson, Acker, Reaser, Cox* (CB/S), Ward (SS/CB)
S: Reid, Beathea, McCray, Ward (SS/CB)

Love it those early line picks while not sexy. Pay off big time as far as helping the whole team

Originally posted by bors:

Love it those early line picks while not sexy. Pay off big time as far as helping the whole team

I think the 49ers will look at the OL earlier than some people think due to the combination of the following factors:

1. Players leaving in 2015 free agency (Iupati)
2. Players potentially leaving in 2016 free agency (Boone, Jonathan Martin, Looney -- and that's if those last two make the team in '15)
3. Health concerns (Anthony Davis, Marcus Martin) and concerns on how some players will perform post-injury (Kilgore, Thomas)
4. Lack of acceptable depth at OT with an unreliable swing tackle.

Good pick on Cameron Erving, i've been mocking him as our 1st recently as well.

I've liked Justin Cox as well since i started studying prospects for this draft back in November. But i think he'll be available as late as the 6th round due to his off field issues.

I had also mocked Rory Anderson in the 7th round as 1 of our picks but recently removed him due to him having some of the smallest, if not the smallest hands at the combine.

Very Solid Mock

Where are the inside linebackers?

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

I think the 49ers will look at the OL earlier than some people think due to the combination of the following factors:

1. Players leaving in 2015 free agency (Iupati)
2. Players potentially leaving in 2016 free agency (Boone, Jonathan Martin, Looney -- and that's if those last two make the team in '15)
3. Health concerns (Anthony Davis, Marcus Martin) and concerns on how some players will perform post-injury (Kilgore, Thomas)
4. Lack of acceptable depth at OT with an unreliable swing tackle.

I really like most of the mock but do you think the 1st round pick changes if J. Smith retires? You think they'll go DL earlier than the 3rd round? If so who do you like?

Originally posted by Luckycharms:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

I think the 49ers will look at the OL earlier than some people think due to the combination of the following factors:

1. Players leaving in 2015 free agency (Iupati)
2. Players potentially leaving in 2016 free agency (Boone, Jonathan Martin, Looney -- and that's if those last two make the team in '15)
3. Health concerns (Anthony Davis, Marcus Martin) and concerns on how some players will perform post-injury (Kilgore, Thomas)
4. Lack of acceptable depth at OT with an unreliable swing tackle.

I really like most of the mock but do you think the 1st round pick changes if J. Smith retires? You think they'll go DL earlier than the 3rd round? If so who do you like?

Not necessarily. Carradine has been being groomed to take over in Justin's attacking RDE role. I think the 49ers will look for depth at DE, but it may not necessarily be at the RDE position. We may elect for a defender that fits McDonald's former role as the LDE. Depends on how high we are on TJE, Dial, and/or if we intend to use Dorsey there next season instead of at NT.

As an FSU fan, I can't say I'd be thrilled with the first pick. He struggled for the first half of the season at LT. Looked like a 3rd round pick with upside. Looked better when moved to center and that versatility helps him, but I question his anchor in the middle at the next level. Maybe worth our 2ND round pick imo. I'd rather take Goldman with our 1st, if he checks out at his pro day. Surprised he weighed in so heavy at the combine and wondering if somethings up.

Also, im not at as pessimistic as you about the injuries on the O-line. We'd have to draft some ILB if we used that logic. Seems like all the o-lineman got some valuable playing time although some did struggle at times. I'd be fine with just taking a developmental swing tackle in the mid rounds for when Boone/j Martin leave.

I see WR, CB and DL as bigger needs. Williams and J Smith are in the last year of their contracts and Dorsey the year after. I'd even take a OLB before OL in case aldon screws up. And if he doesn't you can't have too many pass rushers. Lemonier did nothing last year, big disappointment.

I like the rest for the most part.

I would completely lose my cool if those were our first 2 picks, but I actually like the rest of it.

Going into 2015 with Phillip Dorsett as the answer to all our WR problems would be a gigantic mistake. I like him, but not as a starter, and we actually get WORSE in the Red Zone in 2015 than when we had Crabtree starting.

Kilgore was our starting C last year, and Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas were drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round just last year. Baalke figured well before last season started that it's not going to be realistic to keep Mike Iupati... and drafting a G in the 1st again this year would be repeating that same mistake.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by bors:
Love it those early line picks while not sexy. Pay off big time as far as helping the whole team

I think the 49ers will look at the OL earlier than some people think due to the combination of the following factors:

1. Players leaving in 2015 free agency (Iupati)
2. Players potentially leaving in 2016 free agency (Boone, Jonathan Martin, Looney -- and that's if those last two make the team in '15)
3. Health concerns (Anthony Davis, Marcus Martin) and concerns on how some players will perform post-injury (Kilgore, Thomas)
4. Lack of acceptable depth at OT with an unreliable swing tackle.

That same logic could be applied to DL, ILB, and CB, couldn't it? We had a lot of injuries, we're depending on guys coming back well from those, but we still have those guys. Willhoite will be gone in 2015, Pat and Bow were hurt; Cully and/or Cox will be gone this year, Brock was hurt all year; TJE and Dial are entering year 3, Cowboy is either gone in 2015 or 2016, Dorsey/Williams are coming off of injury. Gotta trust your med staff and trainers. If they say the guy's good to go, you gotta roll with it. Can't replace all the injured guys. Obviously, if they say the guy won't be ready, we need some insurance.

I really like our options for the interior line, and I don't get why people get so down on Looney. Having broken down every snap of his from the preseason through the first 3-4 weeks (can;t remember off the top of my head), I can confidently say he had a lot more positive plays than negative, but his negative plays were obvious, even to people who weren't intentionally watching the line. Some plays that looked like his mistake were communication issues or him being hung out to dry on a double team by JMartin. That's why I'm a lo more concerned about the swing tackle spot, but that hole can be plugged in a middle round. They might believe that JMartin struggled because of the late TC bout w/mono, but I think he's just soft. I thought that when he was in college: physically and mentally soft. nothing has changed my mind yet.

I like the two linemen in the first 3 rounds. I also like Dorsett, but I really have a good feeling about Lockett, partly because of his return skills.

I don't know that Erving could be the BPA at #15, but overall, I would be pretty content with this outcome. Nice job, OTC.

Favorite pick = Dorsett in rd 2.

Kudos, OTC. That would be an amazing offseason and draft.

OTC,
You question Brandon Thomas because he'll be basically a rookie, then suggest that your first pick, a pure rookie, would be better. Thomas was a top talent, perhaps even a 1st round talent prior to his injury. Another 1st round OT (Staley, Iupati, Davis) is not the answer when the team needs only a swing tackle to upgrade J. Martin.

I do like the Dorsett selection. Second round may be necessary for him, if that's who the Niners want.

OTC, where is Erving projected could we trade back get him and add another draft pick