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2014 Belmont Stakes Analysis

My old days of being around thoroughbreds are coming back to life with the possibility of a Triple Crown Winner. It's been 36 years since the last Triple Crown Winner, Affirmed. Can California Chrome do it? This horse has caught the imagination of the public, but so did Smarty Jones, Silver Charm and Real Quiet to name a few that fell short of winning the Belmont Stakes after winning the the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Since 1932, 23 horses have missed winning the Triple Crown after taking the first two legs. Back in 1979 Spectacular Bid was a Super Horse but stepped on a safety pin in his stall the day before the race and lost to Coastal. The biggest heart breaker was back in 1998 when the Bob Baffert trained colt Real Quiet had a 5 length lead in mid stretch and lost by a nose. Here's a quick run down of the contenders;

Medal Count - has a closing kick and would not be a major surprise.
Commanding Curve - skipped the Preakness after coming in second in the KD. He made an 8 wide move at the top of the stretch in the Derby, well rested working out smartly at Belmont.
Ride on Curlin - Ran a monster race in the Preakness coming in second. Here is the big move, change of jockey, John Velasquez will ride. Belmont is his home track and this will add lengths to his performance.
Wicked Strong - Sat out the Preakness, ran in the Derby but stumbled losing all chance, if this horse is rated and saves his run for the last 1/4 mile he could win.
Tonalist - Trainer Christophe Clement is from France and knows how to get a horse ready for a distance. There are more longer races in Europe than the US. I think this horse is over his head, but what do I know?

Belmont is known as the Big Sandy and an experienced jockey can make a big difference on this oval. I'm rooting for California Chrome all the way, but I used to be a handicapper (maybe in my own mind), when you bet with your heart, as many will do in this race, on a 3/5 shot trying to break a 36 year old streak of no Triple Crown Winner, good luck. My pick - Ride on Curlin with Johnny Velasquez, but I'll be rooting with my heart for California Chrome.
  • SoCold
  • Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 50,582
who's #7 and #4 ?

I always pick those two
Chrome will do it
  • BobS
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 7,710
I will take the price on Ride on Curlin his daddy lost the Belmont by only a head. He was gaining at the end of the Derby and Preakness and they are going longer. No guarantee he sustains his rally at a longer distance, but Chrome ran the last 1/4 of the previous two races real slow. This is the first and probably the last time these horses will run 1 1/2 miles. There are few graded races at this distance and most are on turf, so no one tries to breed a dirt horse to run this far. A lot of unknowns, a less accomplished long shot could win this race, the Belmont Stakes is known for huge upsets. The favorites could expire late and a slow plodder could go right by them. This is a week crop of 3 year olds so I will root against Chrome, he doesn't deserve to be mentioned with the likes of Affirmed for beating this crew 3 straight.
[ Edited by BobS on Jun 5, 2014 at 10:39 AM ]
commanding curve,wicked strong,chrome,ride on curling.That is your superfecta.
commanding curve,wicked strong,chrome,ride on curling.That is your superfecta.
sorry for the double post was telling me I did not have permission to access page that s something new I never saw before.
Chrome will fold down the stretch and get beat by a longshot.
Didn't know California Chrome's jockey is the same guy who was War Emblem's jockey back in 2002. I remember thinking that year that War Emblem would pull it off.

I will be rooting for California Chrome as well.
Just a note how great Secretariat was;

Not only did Secretariat set the record for the fastest time at the Kentucky Derby (1:59 2/5), each of his quarter-mile splits were faster than the preceding one, which means he was still accelerating at the end of the race. His split times were: 25 1/5, 24, 23 4/5, 23 2/5, and 23.
Originally posted by RishikeshA:
Just a note how great Secretariat was;

Not only did Secretariat set the record for the fastest time at the Kentucky Derby (1:59 2/5), each of his quarter-mile splits were faster than the preceding one, which means he was still accelerating at the end of the race. His split times were: 25 1/5, 24, 23 4/5, 23 2/5, and 23.

He also has the fastest Preakness and Belmont Stakes times ever recorded.
I will root for Chrome but I think he'll get caught from behind at the finish.
Bay Area horse , chrome represent !!!
go horse!
what time does the actual race start?