Originally posted by Joecool:
I don't know if a healthy Wade will make much of a difference. Miami was terrible and didn't play well at all last year when both Wade and James were in the game.
Also, I think Miller was far more scrappy than Lewis. Miller was smart and helped more in other areas than Lewis does.
Can you or LA give a starter and bench matchup prediction? Would be an interesting read.
Wade makes a HUGE difference. He can take away some of the offensive responsibilities off Lebron's shoulder. He is also a good defender himself. Last year - he couldn't defend anyone. He couldn't close out on Danny Green. This year he actually defended PG most of the series. Wade can also guard Kawhi and Lebron can take on Parker during key stretches. When Lebron switched on Parker last year - Kawhi was killing Miami.
Rashard Lewis is no scrub from 3pt range. Mike Miller is a better shooter but had tough time staying on the court. Rashard Lewis can avg 30 mpg.
As far as match-up prediction...Pete is the man for that. Pop and Spols are always lookin' to change line-ups and exploit match-ups so it's tough to predict - but, for fun I'll give an opinion and prediction on match-ups based on my limited knowledge about the game.
C: Duncan vs. Bosh:
Edge goes to Spurs, obviously. He is every bit as good as last year, if not better. Bosh avg. 11ppg last year. lol
Bosh didn't hit a single 3pter last year. That's not happening this year. He's hitting over 34% from distance this year
(only 28% last year) and even better in the playoffs. This still hugely favors SAS. But, if Duncan has to hesitate to cheat off Bosh - it changes everything defensively for SAS. If Bosh is hitting open shots (and he'll get plenty) - Miami will be very tough to beat. Bosh is the KEY for Miami.
C (backups): Splitter vs. Andersen
Splitter is a better player but Anderson does more for Miami than Splitter does for Spurs. I'll call it even or slight edge for Miami. Miami thrives on his energy
PF: Don't know who will start for either team. SAS gets the edge - Diaw is the best player for either team. Miami must get some contribution from Lewis/Battier. Lebron and Kawhi may play at PF for stretches once again...when teams go small.
SF: Lebron vs. Kawhi
Kawhi is an excellent defender and I really like him - but Lebron is the best player in the game and a different animal than Durant. Obvious edge to Miami. Kawhi can make things tough for Lebron and Pop will once again put his jumper to test. There will be stretches when Lebron can't buy a jumper.
Last year, Lebron had logged 660 minutes in the EC playoffs - and got beat up by Bulls and Pacers. He got 2 days of rest before the Finals. This year, he has played 570 minutes and didn't have to endure that kind of physical defense. He also is gettin' 5 days of rest. He also didn't have to defend best player all the time. That is a big difference...and you know why Miami was able to keep Lebron's minutes down from last year? Healthy D-Wade.
I fully expect Lebron to shoot better than 45% this time around. Lebron has improved in every aspect and is more aggressive than ever before. Kawhi will have his moments in this series, no doubt...but IMO Lebron will have a HUGE series.
These fools will play 42-44 mpg...so I'm not gonna worry about back-ups.
SG: Wade/Ray Allen vs. Danny Green/Ginobili
Toss-up barring an injury to Wade. Wade has become one of the best mid-range shooters this year and last year he didn't have the legs to close on Green. Green will still hit bunch of 3s but Wade is going to make him work on D and play much better defense on him and Kawhi.
Manu is playing better than last year. He's the X-Factor for Spurs as always. He can take this match-up away from Miami. Ray Allen is average for 3 quarters but as good as always in the 4th. If Spurs are outplaying Miami at SG - then they have a great chance of winning this year.
PG: Tony Parker/Mills vs. Chalmers/Cole
Obvious edge to SAS. Chalmers can't stop Parker. I think Cole is a better defender against pick&roll but Parker is too good. Cole can make him work harder and that's something but Lebron will have to defend him if Miami wants to slow him down. Mills is very under-rated...Miami better be aware of him or he'll do what Green did to them last year.
Both teams are pretty even. Spurs should be favorites to win the title
(especially with home-court) and it won't surprise me one bit if they pull it off. Every member of the Spurs plays smart basketball and that makes them very difficult to beat.
Miami has the best player in the game...and a healthy D-Wade. That'll be tough to beat 4 times in a series.
This is why this series is going to be great - once again.