Originally posted by Niners99:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by Niners99:
Originally posted by pdizo916:
Originally posted by LaMichaelJeff:
Bring in Tanaka and Abreu.
WS bound, son.
Where would we play Abreu? I think he's a 1B
Resign pence and Gaudin, and with the addition of Tanaka, this team could be in the chase for a WC.
I would want Ellsburry too but we WISELY spent that money on Pagan.
lol Ellsbury is going to cost 3 times as much as Pagan did. Its not like we picked one over the other.
I think Choo would be a much better signing to leadoff. Elite OB% for a fraction of Ellsbury's price.
That would be $30M per year, which would make Ellsbury the highest paid player in the game, and of course nobody is going to do that. He's $9M right now and someone might offer $16M per for 5 years ($80M), but I can't see any more than that for JE. I like Choo, but he really is useless against LHP and his defense is questionable...but if the deal was reasonable in length, it would be a great investment. Just not sure we can pay big dollars/long-term money to both corner OFers and still put together a great starting pitching staff (which is what this team is built on).
Pagan got 4/40. Ellsbury is said to be targeting around 120 mil. That would be 3 times the 40 mil Pagan got. I doubt he gets that much, but you never know with some of the big spenders in the game, and all Ellsbury's east coast exposure. If he stays healthy and productive through the end of the year, I think he gets 100 mil.
Either way the Giants signing Pagan didnt change whether or not they were going after Ellsbury.
Choo would be perfectly fine in LF. His D isnt great, but he wont have to play CF or RF. The importance of OB% is the key. The Giants have proven time and time again over the years that when they have a productive leadoff hitter, they become a title contender. They always post those team splits that show how dramatically better they are when Pagan is playing well. Same with Torres in 2010.
Teams are starting to see how badly you can get burned by signing long-term free agent deals (Crawford, Gonzo, Werth, Hamilton, Pujols, etc.), so I don't see that happening too much anymore. Maybe 4-5 year deals max...and if that's the case, the most (IMO) you'll see Ellsbury/Choo get is around $18M AAV (5/18M=90M) and even that's high for guys at 30/32 years of age when next season starts, and who have already peaked. Some teams might be willing to pay more per year, but not go longer than 3-4 years but even then, I think they both come in well short of a $100M deal.
At the end of the day, I think Ellsbury gets ~5/$90M.
All that said, I'd be fine with Choo for all the reasons you stated, but he would have to be platooned:
RHP - 347 ABs, .329 AVG, .458 OBP, .382 BABIP, 19 HRs, 40 RBI, 186 wRC+
LHP - 158 ABs, .190 AVG, .325 OBP, .256 BABIP, 0 HRs, 7 RBI, 63 wRC+
So the question is, what do you pay a 32 year-old below-average-fielding OF who is only effective against RHP? Also knowing you need to lockup your RF and at the very least 1 high-end starting pitcher?
[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Sep 5, 2013 at 10:04 AM ]