Is Stephen Strasburg really the next Nolan Ryan?

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheChozen:
I'll give Strasburg some credit. He's gonna be a stud but don't take anything away from other MLB teams and players. Right now, he's just a small fish in a big pond. He's faced one team with a winning record and got beat. Say what you will about the Nats offense but Tim Hudson pitched awesome too(yeah, he was in the game too.) I just think its too early to carve his bust in Cooperstown yet.

Of course its too early to put him in Cooperstown but there is no doubt in my mind that he is a top 10 pitcher already in the majors. He is going to get beat like every pitcher in history has especially playing with the Nats. The guy he is compared to in this thread barely won more games that he lost.

Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant.

That is just simply not true. There are 30 teams in the MLB, the majority has an ace, and the majority of them at this point are better. When he started out this season cracking top 25 pitchers was where he was projected to be, and it looks about right to me once its all said and done.

ESPN just jizzed all over him right when he came out so they could make money and put him on sunday night games ETC, and it worked for a while, but he is gonna have struggles. He is gonna be filthy, but its gonna take some time.

After 5 decisions a 2-2 record w a 2.27 ERA and almost 50K is about right, he probably wont end up that much over .500 because A. he wont have the same control every game B. Big leaguers will start to figure him out a little more and C. he wont get much run support.

Originally posted by BirdmanJr:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:


Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant

Ubaldo, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum

Lincecum, Ubaldo, Wainwright, Johnson, King Felix, and some teams have young future aces they beleive in too much. Gallardo is looking like the Brewers might be cool with what they got. the Red Sox might be just fine with Lester and Buchholz too. im sure the Cardinals arent taking any phone calls about Garcia either.

i think you guys sell the GM's too short. they arent fans or media. they dont crap their pants over hype. they prefer solid major league proof. theres still alot of young aces in baseball whose teams would still rather keep, because theyre proven themselves in the majors. Strasburg still has alot of bumps in the road to overcome to get to that level of development.

[ Edited by Niners99 on Jun 29, 2010 at 13:54:27 ]

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by BirdmanJr:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:


Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant

Ubaldo, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum

Lincecum, Ubaldo, Wainwright, Johnson, King Felix, and some teams have young future aces they beleive in too much. Gallardo is looking like the Brewers might be cool with what they got. the Red Sox might be just fine with Lester and Buchholz too. im sure the Cardinals arent taking any phone calls about Garcia either.

i think you guys sell the GM's too short. they arent fans or media. they dont crap their pants over hype. they prefer solid major league proof. theres still alot of young aces in baseball whose teams would still rather keep, because theyre proven themselves in the majors. Strasburg still has alot of bumps in the road to overcome to get to that level of development.

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheChozen:
I'll give Strasburg some credit. He's gonna be a stud but don't take anything away from other MLB teams and players. Right now, he's just a small fish in a big pond. He's faced one team with a winning record and got beat. Say what you will about the Nats offense but Tim Hudson pitched awesome too(yeah, he was in the game too.) I just think its too early to carve his bust in Cooperstown yet.

Of course its too early to put him in Cooperstown but there is no doubt in my mind that he is a top 10 pitcher already in the majors. He is going to get beat like every pitcher in history has especially playing with the Nats. The guy he is compared to in this thread barely won more games that he lost.

Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant.

That is just simply not true. There are 30 teams in the MLB, the majority has an ace, and the majority of them at this point are better. When he started out this season cracking top 25 pitchers was where he was projected to be, and it looks about right to me once its all said and done.

ESPN just jizzed all over him right when he came out so they could make money and put him on sunday night games ETC, and it worked for a while, but he is gonna have struggles. He is gonna be filthy, but its gonna take some time.

After 5 decisions a 2-2 record w a 2.27 ERA and almost 50K is about right, he probably wont end up that much over .500 because A. he wont have the same control every game B. Big leaguers will start to figure him out a little more and C. he wont get much run support.

You are completley wrong in my opinion if you think that the majority of teams have ace pitchers that are better than Strasburg.

OK.. lets go team for team then:
Giants - Lincecum MAYBE but he sure isnt showing it
Rockies -Ubaldo - ok yes
Dodgers -Kershaw -no although i do like kershaw
Arizona Haren - um.. NO
Padres Latos - no

Brewers - Gallardo -yes by a bit
Cards - Wainwright - yes
Cubs - no one
Astros - no one
Pirates - no one
Reds - no one

Mets Pelfrey .. no and no way for Santana either
Phillies Halliday yes
Marlins Johnson yes
Braves Hansen no

A's no one
Texas no one
Seattle Felix maybe although he hasnt shown it
Angels Weaver - maybe but doubtful

Tigers Verlander - maybe
KC Greinke no
Minn Lirinao no
Cleve no one
Chicago no

NY Sabathia yes
Boston Beckett? no Lester? maybe
TB Price Yes
Balti no one
Toron no one

OK - i may give you 9-10 teams that would think their ace is better right now. MAYBE. However, that wasnt the question. It certainly isnt the majority of the teams.

The question was how many teams wouldnt deal there #1 straight up for Strasburg and I believe it would be 1 or 2 at most.

I think there are only 4 pitchers in baseball that teams might not deal for him:
David Price
Josh Johnson
Ubaldo Jiminez
Felix Hernandez

Listen, I know that I am in the minority on this persepective. I did provide two names, Jim Callis from Baseball America and Keith Law from ESPN that share my beliefs but everyone is entitled to whatever they think. I choose to look at how great this kid will be and how good he already is.

It is kind of like the NBA. John Wall hasnt played a game yet but the vast majority of teams would deal their point guards for him. Why? Because of the potential greatness of the kid.

[ Edited by Ninerjohn on Jun 29, 2010 at 17:05:03 ]

I think you put too much stock on a half year of data and ERA if you saying Ubaldo is better than Timmy.

2010 stats
FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 2.87
Ubaldo: 3.07

xFIP(expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 3.21
Ubaldo: 3.68

BABIP
In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on the quality of the team's defense (e.g. a team with an exceptionally bad defense could be expected to yield a BABIP of .315)

BABIP
Timmy: .319
Ubaldo: .255

According to UZR, Giants have the 3rd best defense, Rockies have the 10th worst.

Originally posted by TheNaitch:
I think you put too much stock on a half year of data and ERA if you saying Ubaldo is better than Timmy.

2010 stats
FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 2.87
Ubaldo: 3.07

xFIP(expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 3.21
Ubaldo: 3.68

BABIP
In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on the quality of the team's defense (e.g. a team with an exceptionally bad defense could be expected to yield a BABIP of .315)

BABIP
Timmy: .319
Ubaldo: .255

According to UZR, Giants have the 3rd best defense, Rockies have the 10th worst.

Good stats but they dont convince me. I still look at whip and era as the stats that I would value the most. More than that though I go by my own eyes to see the pitchers stuff and command. In those areas Ubaldo is much better than Timmy this year. Now, the question is will that continue? I am very concerned about Lincecum right now and would take Ubaldo over him. Others wouldnt but any Giants fan has to be a bit worried about his reduction in velocity and command.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheNaitch:
I think you put too much stock on a half year of data and ERA if you saying Ubaldo is better than Timmy.

2010 stats
FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 2.87
Ubaldo: 3.07

xFIP(expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 3.21
Ubaldo: 3.68

BABIP
In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on the quality of the team's defense (e.g. a team with an exceptionally bad defense could be expected to yield a BABIP of .315)

BABIP
Timmy: .319
Ubaldo: .255

According to UZR, Giants have the 3rd best defense, Rockies have the 10th worst.

Good stats but they dont convince me. I still look at whip and era as the stats that I would value the most. More than that though I go by my own eyes to see the pitchers stuff and command. In those areas Ubaldo is much better than Timmy this year. Now, the question is will that continue? I am very concerned about Lincecum right now and would take Ubaldo over him. Others wouldnt but any Giants fan has to be a bit worried about his reduction in velocity and command.

Watching is a good way to evaluate players, but defense plays to much into ERA and WHIP.

Just look at 09 Felix. Mariners had the best defense in baseball.

2009
ERA: 2.49
xFIP: 3.42

The 2010 Mariners defense is average.

2010
ERA: 3.28
xFIP: 3.48

Without that elite defense, his ERA is closer to his xFIP. His stats are about the same, it's just that his defense isn't helping him out as much.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheChozen:
I'll give Strasburg some credit. He's gonna be a stud but don't take anything away from other MLB teams and players. Right now, he's just a small fish in a big pond. He's faced one team with a winning record and got beat. Say what you will about the Nats offense but Tim Hudson pitched awesome too(yeah, he was in the game too.) I just think its too early to carve his bust in Cooperstown yet.

Of course its too early to put him in Cooperstown but there is no doubt in my mind that he is a top 10 pitcher already in the majors. He is going to get beat like every pitcher in history has especially playing with the Nats. The guy he is compared to in this thread barely won more games that he lost.

Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant.

That is just simply not true. There are 30 teams in the MLB, the majority has an ace, and the majority of them at this point are better. When he started out this season cracking top 25 pitchers was where he was projected to be, and it looks about right to me once its all said and done.

ESPN just jizzed all over him right when he came out so they could make money and put him on sunday night games ETC, and it worked for a while, but he is gonna have struggles. He is gonna be filthy, but its gonna take some time.

After 5 decisions a 2-2 record w a 2.27 ERA and almost 50K is about right, he probably wont end up that much over .500 because A. he wont have the same control every game B. Big leaguers will start to figure him out a little more and C. he wont get much run support.

You are completley wrong in my opinion if you think that the majority of teams have ace pitchers that are better than Strasburg.

OK.. lets go team for team then:
Giants - Lincecum MAYBE but he sure isnt showing it
Rockies -Ubaldo - ok yes
Dodgers -Kershaw -no although i do like kershaw
Arizona Haren - um.. NO
Padres Latos - no

Brewers - Gallardo -yes by a bit
Cards - Wainwright - yes
Cubs - no one
Astros - no one
Pirates - no one
Reds - no one

Mets Pelfrey .. no and no way for Santana either
Phillies Halliday yes
Marlins Johnson yes
Braves Hansen no

A's no one
Texas no one
Seattle Felix maybe although he hasnt shown it
Angels Weaver - maybe but doubtful

Tigers Verlander - maybe
KC Greinke no
Minn Lirinao no
Cleve no one
Chicago no

NY Sabathia yes
Boston Beckett? no Lester? maybe
TB Price Yes
Balti no one
Toron no one

OK - i may give you 9-10 teams that would think their ace is better right now. MAYBE. However, that wasnt the question. It certainly isnt the majority of the teams.

The question was how many teams wouldnt deal there #1 straight up for Strasburg and I believe it would be 1 or 2 at most.

I think there are only 4 pitchers in baseball that teams might not deal for him:
David Price
Josh Johnson
Ubaldo Jiminez
Felix Hernandez

Listen, I know that I am in the minority on this persepective. I did provide two names, Jim Callis from Baseball America and Keith Law from ESPN that share my beliefs but everyone is entitled to whatever they think. I choose to look at how great this kid will be and how good he already is.

It is kind of like the NBA. John Wall hasnt played a game yet but the vast majority of teams would deal their point guards for him. Why? Because of the potential greatness of the kid.

First of all the basketball analogy is completely irrelevant to the discussion. John Wall is not one of the better prospects to come out in a long time to alot of scouts, the comparison of Wall coming out and Strasburg coming out isn't even close. And I don't want to argue with you over your point, which i clearly mis read from the beginning, because thats not what I'm trying to dispute. Clearly based off potential many managers would trade their ace except for 5-7, but as for this year, he wont be a top 10 pitcher, mark it. Like i said, top 20-25 is not anything to sneeze at and he'd be well on his way to being a top ace for a long time.

Originally posted by TheNaitch:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheNaitch:
I think you put too much stock on a half year of data and ERA if you saying Ubaldo is better than Timmy.

2010 stats
FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 2.87
Ubaldo: 3.07

xFIP(expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 3.21
Ubaldo: 3.68

BABIP
In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on the quality of the team's defense (e.g. a team with an exceptionally bad defense could be expected to yield a BABIP of .315)

BABIP
Timmy: .319
Ubaldo: .255

According to UZR, Giants have the 3rd best defense, Rockies have the 10th worst.

Good stats but they dont convince me. I still look at whip and era as the stats that I would value the most. More than that though I go by my own eyes to see the pitchers stuff and command. In those areas Ubaldo is much better than Timmy this year. Now, the question is will that continue? I am very concerned about Lincecum right now and would take Ubaldo over him. Others wouldnt but any Giants fan has to be a bit worried about his reduction in velocity and command.

Watching is a good way to evaluate players, but defense plays to much into ERA and WHIP.

Just look at 09 Felix. Mariners had the best defense in baseball.

2009
ERA: 2.49
xFIP: 3.42

The 2010 Mariners defense is average.

2010
ERA: 3.28
xFIP: 3.48

Without that elite defense, his ERA is closer to his xFIP. His stats are about the same, it's just that his defense isn't helping him out as much.

I understand your point but the defense isnt the reason a pitcher walks more per 9, throws more wild pitches, gives up more HRs per 9 innings. Lincecums #s are up in all of those areas which again is a reason for concern. They are also worse than Ubaldo's numbers despite the fact that Timmy pitches in a great park for pitchers and Ubaldo throws in a hitters park half the time.

Felix's numbers also show that he is walking more batters and giving up more HRS per 9 than last year. If you watched Felix at the beginning of the year it was clear that defense had NOTHING to do with his struggles. He was simply lost with his mechanics and his command. Now he is pitching much better, throwing more strikes, and it has resulted in more quality starts.

Numbers like these only show that there may be an indication that things could change in the future but they are certainly NOT a definitive measure of how a pitcher is pitching.

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheChozen:
I'll give Strasburg some credit. He's gonna be a stud but don't take anything away from other MLB teams and players. Right now, he's just a small fish in a big pond. He's faced one team with a winning record and got beat. Say what you will about the Nats offense but Tim Hudson pitched awesome too(yeah, he was in the game too.) I just think its too early to carve his bust in Cooperstown yet.

Of course its too early to put him in Cooperstown but there is no doubt in my mind that he is a top 10 pitcher already in the majors. He is going to get beat like every pitcher in history has especially playing with the Nats. The guy he is compared to in this thread barely won more games that he lost.

Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant.

That is just simply not true. There are 30 teams in the MLB, the majority has an ace, and the majority of them at this point are better. When he started out this season cracking top 25 pitchers was where he was projected to be, and it looks about right to me once its all said and done.

ESPN just jizzed all over him right when he came out so they could make money and put him on sunday night games ETC, and it worked for a while, but he is gonna have struggles. He is gonna be filthy, but its gonna take some time.

After 5 decisions a 2-2 record w a 2.27 ERA and almost 50K is about right, he probably wont end up that much over .500 because A. he wont have the same control every game B. Big leaguers will start to figure him out a little more and C. he wont get much run support.

You are completley wrong in my opinion if you think that the majority of teams have ace pitchers that are better than Strasburg.

OK.. lets go team for team then:
Giants - Lincecum MAYBE but he sure isnt showing it
Rockies -Ubaldo - ok yes
Dodgers -Kershaw -no although i do like kershaw
Arizona Haren - um.. NO
Padres Latos - no

Brewers - Gallardo -yes by a bit
Cards - Wainwright - yes
Cubs - no one
Astros - no one
Pirates - no one
Reds - no one

Mets Pelfrey .. no and no way for Santana either
Phillies Halliday yes
Marlins Johnson yes
Braves Hansen no

A's no one
Texas no one
Seattle Felix maybe although he hasnt shown it
Angels Weaver - maybe but doubtful

Tigers Verlander - maybe
KC Greinke no
Minn Lirinao no
Cleve no one
Chicago no

NY Sabathia yes
Boston Beckett? no Lester? maybe
TB Price Yes
Balti no one
Toron no one

OK - i may give you 9-10 teams that would think their ace is better right now. MAYBE. However, that wasnt the question. It certainly isnt the majority of the teams.

The question was how many teams wouldnt deal there #1 straight up for Strasburg and I believe it would be 1 or 2 at most.

I think there are only 4 pitchers in baseball that teams might not deal for him:
David Price
Josh Johnson
Ubaldo Jiminez
Felix Hernandez

Listen, I know that I am in the minority on this persepective. I did provide two names, Jim Callis from Baseball America and Keith Law from ESPN that share my beliefs but everyone is entitled to whatever they think. I choose to look at how great this kid will be and how good he already is.

It is kind of like the NBA. John Wall hasnt played a game yet but the vast majority of teams would deal their point guards for him. Why? Because of the potential greatness of the kid.

First of all the basketball analogy is completely irrelevant to the discussion. John Wall is not one of the better prospects to come out in a long time to alot of scouts, the comparison of Wall coming out and Strasburg coming out isn't even close. And I don't want to argue with you over your point, which i clearly mis read from the beginning, because thats not what I'm trying to dispute. Clearly based off potential many managers would trade their ace except for 5-7, but as for this year, he wont be a top 10 pitcher, mark it. Like i said, top 20-25 is not anything to sneeze at and he'd be well on his way to being a top ace for a long time.

He wont be a top 10 pitcher if you simply look at total wins and other categories where the other top pitchers didnt miss 2 months of the season. That is pretty obvious.
Yes you misunderstood my point. My point was that there would be very few teams that wouldnt deal their top pitcher for Strasburg and I really believe that. I also think that right now there would be less than 10 pitchers in all of baseball that I would want on the mound for me. I do believe he is a top 10 pitcher right now although the stats and wins for 2010 certainly will not show that.

As to the John Wall.. it was to make a point. Yes, he isnt the incredible prospect that Strasburg is but the vast majority of NBA teams would still trade almost any player on their roster for a chance to have him on their team for many years. Just like Strasburg.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheNaitch:
I think you put too much stock on a half year of data and ERA if you saying Ubaldo is better than Timmy.

2010 stats
FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 2.87
Ubaldo: 3.07

xFIP(expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 3.21
Ubaldo: 3.68

BABIP
In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on the quality of the team's defense (e.g. a team with an exceptionally bad defense could be expected to yield a BABIP of .315)

BABIP
Timmy: .319
Ubaldo: .255

According to UZR, Giants have the 3rd best defense, Rockies have the 10th worst.

Good stats but they dont convince me. I still look at whip and era as the stats that I would value the most. More than that though I go by my own eyes to see the pitchers stuff and command. In those areas Ubaldo is much better than Timmy this year. Now, the question is will that continue? I am very concerned about Lincecum right now and would take Ubaldo over him. Others wouldnt but any Giants fan has to be a bit worried about his reduction in velocity and command.

i think youre overreacting to Lincecums struggles. despite having poor control most of the season, and the low velocity fastball, hes still the continuing major league leader in K's, and has a 3.13 era. i dont know where all this doomsday talk comes from. hes definitely been off his A game, and hes still one of the best pitchers in baseball.

his mechanics are off, which is causing his control AND velocity to drop. because he is small in stature, to generate velocity, he uses leverage and torque. because his mechanics are off, he loses both control and speed. when he gets his very complicated delivery back on track, he will be fine.

the Giants have leaned on him hard since April 2008. its not unthinkable that his arm might be a little tired. youre concentrating way too much on a specific time period, but judging something very broad. saying "id rather have Ubaldo or Strasburg than Lincecum" sounds pretty odd if you step back and look at the resumes.

GM's dont make decisions based on knee jerk reactions like "OMG Ubaldo is the best pitcher ever! Lincecum is having control issues.....HURRY AND TRADE HIM!" Lincecum has been arguably the best SP in baseball for over 2 years, and has 2 CY awards on his mantle. despite losing control and velocity, his numbers still rank up there with the better SP in baseball.

i think everyone needs to calm down and wait things out. good players have rough stretches. even the greatest do. its about how you handle them, and how you come out of them. Lincecum can use this as an opportunity to understand how his mechanics can become off, and what he needs to do to correct it as quickly as he can. in the future, he can draw from this experience.

clearly Ninerjohn isnt a believer in the old saying "one in the hand is worth two in the bush". we know what we have in Lincecum. we dont know what Stephen Strasburg's path looks like 3 years down the road. potential means nothing until proven in real life. you cant make a smart business decision based around potential unless you have very little to lose from it.

[ Edited by Niners99 on Jun 30, 2010 at 01:50:09 ]

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheNaitch:
I think you put too much stock on a half year of data and ERA if you saying Ubaldo is better than Timmy.

2010 stats
FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 2.87
Ubaldo: 3.07

xFIP(expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
Timmy: 3.21
Ubaldo: 3.68

BABIP
In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on the quality of the team's defense (e.g. a team with an exceptionally bad defense could be expected to yield a BABIP of .315)

BABIP
Timmy: .319
Ubaldo: .255

According to UZR, Giants have the 3rd best defense, Rockies have the 10th worst.

Good stats but they dont convince me. I still look at whip and era as the stats that I would value the most. More than that though I go by my own eyes to see the pitchers stuff and command. In those areas Ubaldo is much better than Timmy this year. Now, the question is will that continue? I am very concerned about Lincecum right now and would take Ubaldo over him. Others wouldnt but any Giants fan has to be a bit worried about his reduction in velocity and command.

i think youre overreacting to Lincecums struggles. despite having poor control most of the season, and the low velocity fastball, hes still the continuing major league leader in K's, and has a 3.13 era. i dont know where all this doomsday talk comes from. hes definitely been off his A game, and hes still one of the best pitchers in baseball.

his mechanics are off, which is causing his control AND velocity to drop. because he is small in stature, to generate velocity, he uses leverage and torque. because his mechanics are off, he loses both control and speed. when he gets his very complicated delivery back on track, he will be fine.

the Giants have leaned on him hard since April 2008. its not unthinkable that his arm might be a little tired. youre concentrating way too much on a specific time period, but judging something very broad. saying "id rather have Ubaldo or Strasburg than Lincecum" sounds pretty odd if you step back and look at the resumes.

GM's dont make decisions based on knee jerk reactions like "OMG Ubaldo is the best pitcher ever! Lincecum is having control issues.....HURRY AND TRADE HIM!" Lincecum has been arguably the best SP in baseball for over 2 years, and has 2 CY awards on his mantle. despite losing control and velocity, his numbers still rank up there with the better SP in baseball.

i think everyone needs to calm down and wait things out. good players have rough stretches. even the greatest do. its about how you handle them, and how you come out of them. Lincecum can use this as an opportunity to understand how his mechanics can become off, and what he needs to do to correct it as quickly as he can. in the future, he can draw from this experience.

clearly Ninerjohn isnt a believer in the old saying "one in the hand is worth two in the bush". we know what we have in Lincecum. we dont know what Stephen Strasburg's path looks like 3 years down the road. potential means nothing until proven in real life. you cant make a smart business decision based around potential unless you have very little to lose from it.

I believe in looking into the present and the future to determine what is the best path for the next decade. I have said over and over that I understand why people would rather have Lincecum because of his 2 CY awards. I differ because I look at Strasburg as a guy who can be even better than that and for a long time. We dont know what Lincecum's path will be 3 years down the line either. I have never said the Giants should dump the freak. That would be crazy. I just believe that long term Strasburg would be the better option.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheChozen:
I'll give Strasburg some credit. He's gonna be a stud but don't take anything away from other MLB teams and players. Right now, he's just a small fish in a big pond. He's faced one team with a winning record and got beat. Say what you will about the Nats offense but Tim Hudson pitched awesome too(yeah, he was in the game too.) I just think its too early to carve his bust in Cooperstown yet.

Of course its too early to put him in Cooperstown but there is no doubt in my mind that he is a top 10 pitcher already in the majors. He is going to get beat like every pitcher in history has especially playing with the Nats. The guy he is compared to in this thread barely won more games that he lost.

Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant.

That is just simply not true. There are 30 teams in the MLB, the majority has an ace, and the majority of them at this point are better. When he started out this season cracking top 25 pitchers was where he was projected to be, and it looks about right to me once its all said and done.

ESPN just jizzed all over him right when he came out so they could make money and put him on sunday night games ETC, and it worked for a while, but he is gonna have struggles. He is gonna be filthy, but its gonna take some time.

After 5 decisions a 2-2 record w a 2.27 ERA and almost 50K is about right, he probably wont end up that much over .500 because A. he wont have the same control every game B. Big leaguers will start to figure him out a little more and C. he wont get much run support.

You are completley wrong in my opinion if you think that the majority of teams have ace pitchers that are better than Strasburg.

OK.. lets go team for team then:
Giants - Lincecum MAYBE but he sure isnt showing it
Rockies -Ubaldo - ok yes
Dodgers -Kershaw -no although i do like kershaw
Arizona Haren - um.. NO
Padres Latos - no

Brewers - Gallardo -yes by a bit
Cards - Wainwright - yes
Cubs - no one
Astros - no one
Pirates - no one
Reds - no one

Mets Pelfrey .. no and no way for Santana either
Phillies Halliday yes
Marlins Johnson yes
Braves Hansen no

A's no one
Texas no one
Seattle Felix maybe although he hasnt shown it
Angels Weaver - maybe but doubtful

Tigers Verlander - maybe
KC Greinke no
Minn Lirinao no
Cleve no one
Chicago no

NY Sabathia yes
Boston Beckett? no Lester? maybe
TB Price Yes
Balti no one
Toron no one

OK - i may give you 9-10 teams that would think their ace is better right now. MAYBE. However, that wasnt the question. It certainly isnt the majority of the teams.

The question was how many teams wouldnt deal there #1 straight up for Strasburg and I believe it would be 1 or 2 at most.

I think there are only 4 pitchers in baseball that teams might not deal for him:
David Price
Josh Johnson
Ubaldo Jiminez
Felix Hernandez

Listen, I know that I am in the minority on this persepective. I did provide two names, Jim Callis from Baseball America and Keith Law from ESPN that share my beliefs but everyone is entitled to whatever they think. I choose to look at how great this kid will be and how good he already is.

It is kind of like the NBA. John Wall hasnt played a game yet but the vast majority of teams would deal their point guards for him. Why? Because of the potential greatness of the kid.

First of all the basketball analogy is completely irrelevant to the discussion. John Wall is not one of the better prospects to come out in a long time to alot of scouts, the comparison of Wall coming out and Strasburg coming out isn't even close. And I don't want to argue with you over your point, which i clearly mis read from the beginning, because thats not what I'm trying to dispute. Clearly based off potential many managers would trade their ace except for 5-7, but as for this year, he wont be a top 10 pitcher, mark it. Like i said, top 20-25 is not anything to sneeze at and he'd be well on his way to being a top ace for a long time.

He wont be a top 10 pitcher if you simply look at total wins and other categories where the other top pitchers didnt miss 2 months of the season. That is pretty obvious.
Yes you misunderstood my point. My point was that there would be very few teams that wouldnt deal their top pitcher for Strasburg and I really believe that. I also think that right now there would be less than 10 pitchers in all of baseball that I would want on the mound for me. I do believe he is a top 10 pitcher right now although the stats and wins for 2010 certainly will not show that.

As to the John Wall.. it was to make a point. Yes, he isnt the incredible prospect that Strasburg is but the vast majority of NBA teams would still trade almost any player on their roster for a chance to have him on their team for many years. Just like Strasburg.

LOL what? You're putting him on Lebron status right now, he wasn't even the clear cut #1 prospect coming out, a lot of teams would have wanted Turner..

He might not even be the most successful NBA player from his Kentucky team

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheChozen:
I'll give Strasburg some credit. He's gonna be a stud but don't take anything away from other MLB teams and players. Right now, he's just a small fish in a big pond. He's faced one team with a winning record and got beat. Say what you will about the Nats offense but Tim Hudson pitched awesome too(yeah, he was in the game too.) I just think its too early to carve his bust in Cooperstown yet.

Of course its too early to put him in Cooperstown but there is no doubt in my mind that he is a top 10 pitcher already in the majors. He is going to get beat like every pitcher in history has especially playing with the Nats. The guy he is compared to in this thread barely won more games that he lost.

Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant.

That is just simply not true. There are 30 teams in the MLB, the majority has an ace, and the majority of them at this point are better. When he started out this season cracking top 25 pitchers was where he was projected to be, and it looks about right to me once its all said and done.

ESPN just jizzed all over him right when he came out so they could make money and put him on sunday night games ETC, and it worked for a while, but he is gonna have struggles. He is gonna be filthy, but its gonna take some time.

After 5 decisions a 2-2 record w a 2.27 ERA and almost 50K is about right, he probably wont end up that much over .500 because A. he wont have the same control every game B. Big leaguers will start to figure him out a little more and C. he wont get much run support.

You are completley wrong in my opinion if you think that the majority of teams have ace pitchers that are better than Strasburg.

OK.. lets go team for team then:
Giants - Lincecum MAYBE but he sure isnt showing it
Rockies -Ubaldo - ok yes
Dodgers -Kershaw -no although i do like kershaw
Arizona Haren - um.. NO
Padres Latos - no

Brewers - Gallardo -yes by a bit
Cards - Wainwright - yes
Cubs - no one
Astros - no one
Pirates - no one
Reds - no one

Mets Pelfrey .. no and no way for Santana either
Phillies Halliday yes
Marlins Johnson yes
Braves Hansen no

A's no one
Texas no one
Seattle Felix maybe although he hasnt shown it
Angels Weaver - maybe but doubtful

Tigers Verlander - maybe
KC Greinke no
Minn Lirinao no
Cleve no one
Chicago no

NY Sabathia yes
Boston Beckett? no Lester? maybe
TB Price Yes
Balti no one
Toron no one

OK - i may give you 9-10 teams that would think their ace is better right now. MAYBE. However, that wasnt the question. It certainly isnt the majority of the teams.

The question was how many teams wouldnt deal there #1 straight up for Strasburg and I believe it would be 1 or 2 at most.

I think there are only 4 pitchers in baseball that teams might not deal for him:
David Price
Josh Johnson
Ubaldo Jiminez
Felix Hernandez

Listen, I know that I am in the minority on this persepective. I did provide two names, Jim Callis from Baseball America and Keith Law from ESPN that share my beliefs but everyone is entitled to whatever they think. I choose to look at how great this kid will be and how good he already is.

It is kind of like the NBA. John Wall hasnt played a game yet but the vast majority of teams would deal their point guards for him. Why? Because of the potential greatness of the kid.

First of all the basketball analogy is completely irrelevant to the discussion. John Wall is not one of the better prospects to come out in a long time to alot of scouts, the comparison of Wall coming out and Strasburg coming out isn't even close. And I don't want to argue with you over your point, which i clearly mis read from the beginning, because thats not what I'm trying to dispute. Clearly based off potential many managers would trade their ace except for 5-7, but as for this year, he wont be a top 10 pitcher, mark it. Like i said, top 20-25 is not anything to sneeze at and he'd be well on his way to being a top ace for a long time.

He wont be a top 10 pitcher if you simply look at total wins and other categories where the other top pitchers didnt miss 2 months of the season. That is pretty obvious.
Yes you misunderstood my point. My point was that there would be very few teams that wouldnt deal their top pitcher for Strasburg and I really believe that. I also think that right now there would be less than 10 pitchers in all of baseball that I would want on the mound for me. I do believe he is a top 10 pitcher right now although the stats and wins for 2010 certainly will not show that.

As to the John Wall.. it was to make a point. Yes, he isnt the incredible prospect that Strasburg is but the vast majority of NBA teams would still trade almost any player on their roster for a chance to have him on their team for many years. Just like Strasburg.

LOL what? You're putting him on Lebron status right now, he wasn't even the clear cut #1 prospect coming out, a lot of teams would have wanted Turner..

He might not even be the most successful NBA player from his Kentucky team

So you dont think teams would trade almost ( and notice i said ALMOST) anyone from their roster for Wall? Of course most teams would. The Warriors would deal anyone other than Curry for Wall in a heartbeat. Cleveland.. anyone other than LeBron. The Lakers.. anyone other than Kobe and Gasol. Celtics? Anyone other than Rondo. Most teams.. anyone at all. This isnt a hard concept and how is this putting him on the same level as LeBron?

As far as a lot of teams prefering Turner.. well I didnt know you had the ear of all the GMS in the league. That is really interesting. I dont buy it however. But, thats besides the point.

The point is again.... teams do see star players (whether they are Evan Turner or John Wall or any fricking kid from college) and project how great they will be. If they think they are THAT good they will trade current stars for them. If there is potential greatness and the kind of player that can take them to the promised land teams will do some crazy things to get them. Maybe you dont remember trading an entire draft to get Ricky Williams. Maybe you dont remember the Warriors trading Penny Hardaway AND 3 FIRST RD PICKS to get Chris Webber.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by TheChozen:
I'll give Strasburg some credit. He's gonna be a stud but don't take anything away from other MLB teams and players. Right now, he's just a small fish in a big pond. He's faced one team with a winning record and got beat. Say what you will about the Nats offense but Tim Hudson pitched awesome too(yeah, he was in the game too.) I just think its too early to carve his bust in Cooperstown yet.

Of course its too early to put him in Cooperstown but there is no doubt in my mind that he is a top 10 pitcher already in the majors. He is going to get beat like every pitcher in history has especially playing with the Nats. The guy he is compared to in this thread barely won more games that he lost.

Here is a good question. How many teams in all of baseball wouldnt trade their #1 Sp for Strasburg? Can you name 3? I cant. 2? I still cant.

That is just simply not true. There are 30 teams in the MLB, the majority has an ace, and the majority of them at this point are better. When he started out this season cracking top 25 pitchers was where he was projected to be, and it looks about right to me once its all said and done.

ESPN just jizzed all over him right when he came out so they could make money and put him on sunday night games ETC, and it worked for a while, but he is gonna have struggles. He is gonna be filthy, but its gonna take some time.

After 5 decisions a 2-2 record w a 2.27 ERA and almost 50K is about right, he probably wont end up that much over .500 because A. he wont have the same control every game B. Big leaguers will start to figure him out a little more and C. he wont get much run support.

You are completley wrong in my opinion if you think that the majority of teams have ace pitchers that are better than Strasburg.

OK.. lets go team for team then:
Giants - Lincecum MAYBE but he sure isnt showing it
Rockies -Ubaldo - ok yes
Dodgers -Kershaw -no although i do like kershaw
Arizona Haren - um.. NO
Padres Latos - no

Brewers - Gallardo -yes by a bit
Cards - Wainwright - yes
Cubs - no one
Astros - no one
Pirates - no one
Reds - no one

Mets Pelfrey .. no and no way for Santana either
Phillies Halliday yes
Marlins Johnson yes
Braves Hansen no

A's no one
Texas no one
Seattle Felix maybe although he hasnt shown it
Angels Weaver - maybe but doubtful

Tigers Verlander - maybe
KC Greinke no
Minn Lirinao no
Cleve no one
Chicago no

NY Sabathia yes
Boston Beckett? no Lester? maybe
TB Price Yes
Balti no one
Toron no one

OK - i may give you 9-10 teams that would think their ace is better right now. MAYBE. However, that wasnt the question. It certainly isnt the majority of the teams.

The question was how many teams wouldnt deal there #1 straight up for Strasburg and I believe it would be 1 or 2 at most.

I think there are only 4 pitchers in baseball that teams might not deal for him:
David Price
Josh Johnson
Ubaldo Jiminez
Felix Hernandez

Listen, I know that I am in the minority on this persepective. I did provide two names, Jim Callis from Baseball America and Keith Law from ESPN that share my beliefs but everyone is entitled to whatever they think. I choose to look at how great this kid will be and how good he already is.

It is kind of like the NBA. John Wall hasnt played a game yet but the vast majority of teams would deal their point guards for him. Why? Because of the potential greatness of the kid.

First of all the basketball analogy is completely irrelevant to the discussion. John Wall is not one of the better prospects to come out in a long time to alot of scouts, the comparison of Wall coming out and Strasburg coming out isn't even close. And I don't want to argue with you over your point, which i clearly mis read from the beginning, because thats not what I'm trying to dispute. Clearly based off potential many managers would trade their ace except for 5-7, but as for this year, he wont be a top 10 pitcher, mark it. Like i said, top 20-25 is not anything to sneeze at and he'd be well on his way to being a top ace for a long time.

He wont be a top 10 pitcher if you simply look at total wins and other categories where the other top pitchers didnt miss 2 months of the season. That is pretty obvious.
Yes you misunderstood my point. My point was that there would be very few teams that wouldnt deal their top pitcher for Strasburg and I really believe that. I also think that right now there would be less than 10 pitchers in all of baseball that I would want on the mound for me. I do believe he is a top 10 pitcher right now although the stats and wins for 2010 certainly will not show that.

As to the John Wall.. it was to make a point. Yes, he isnt the incredible prospect that Strasburg is but the vast majority of NBA teams would still trade almost any player on their roster for a chance to have him on their team for many years. Just like Strasburg.

LOL what? You're putting him on Lebron status right now, he wasn't even the clear cut #1 prospect coming out, a lot of teams would have wanted Turner..

He might not even be the most successful NBA player from his Kentucky team

So you dont think teams would trade almost ( and notice i said ALMOST) anyone from their roster for Wall? Of course most teams would. The Warriors would deal anyone other than Curry for Wall in a heartbeat. Cleveland.. anyone other than LeBron. The Lakers.. anyone other than Kobe and Gasol. Celtics? Anyone other than Rondo. Most teams.. anyone at all. This isnt a hard concept and how is this putting him on the same level as LeBron?

As far as a lot of teams prefering Turner.. well I didnt know you had the ear of all the GMS in the league. That is really interesting. I dont buy it however. But, thats besides the point.

The point is again.... teams do see star players (whether they are Evan Turner or John Wall or any fricking kid from college) and project how great they will be. If they think they are THAT good they will trade current stars for them. If there is potential greatness and the kind of player that can take them to the promised land teams will do some crazy things to get them. Maybe you dont remember trading an entire draft to get Ricky Williams. Maybe you dont remember the Warriors trading Penny Hardaway AND 3 FIRST RD PICKS to get Chris Webber.

Alright, agree to disagree man. You put so much stock into talent that hasn't even touched a professional court its pointless to argue.

There's a really dope high school kid that just committed to Kansas that lives up the street, I'll go knock on his door and tell him the Celtics are trading Kendrick Perkins to the Jayhawks for him cuz he has that much talent and potential!