Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Originally posted by TheNaitch:
I think you put too much stock on a half year of data and ERA if you saying Ubaldo is better than Timmy.
FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)
xFIP(expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on the quality of the team's defense (e.g. a team with an exceptionally bad defense could be expected to yield a BABIP of .315)
According to UZR, Giants have the 3rd best defense, Rockies have the 10th worst.
Good stats but they dont convince me. I still look at whip and era as the stats that I would value the most. More than that though I go by my own eyes to see the pitchers stuff and command. In those areas Ubaldo is much better than Timmy this year. Now, the question is will that continue? I am very concerned about Lincecum right now and would take Ubaldo over him. Others wouldnt but any Giants fan has to be a bit worried about his reduction in velocity and command.
i think youre overreacting to Lincecums struggles. despite having poor control most of the season, and the low velocity fastball, hes still the continuing major league leader in K's, and has a 3.13 era. i dont know where all this doomsday talk comes from. hes definitely been off his A game, and hes still one of the best pitchers in baseball.
his mechanics are off, which is causing his control AND velocity to drop. because he is small in stature, to generate velocity, he uses leverage and torque. because his mechanics are off, he loses both control and speed. when he gets his very complicated delivery back on track, he will be fine.
the Giants have leaned on him hard since April 2008. its not unthinkable that his arm might be a little tired. youre concentrating way too much on a specific time period, but judging something very broad. saying "id rather have Ubaldo or Strasburg than Lincecum" sounds pretty odd if you step back and look at the resumes.
GM's dont make decisions based on knee jerk reactions like "OMG Ubaldo is the best pitcher ever! Lincecum is having control issues.....HURRY AND TRADE HIM!" Lincecum has been arguably the best SP in baseball for over 2 years, and has 2 CY awards on his mantle. despite losing control and velocity, his numbers still rank up there with the better SP in baseball.
i think everyone needs to calm down and wait things out. good players have rough stretches. even the greatest do. its about how you handle them, and how you come out of them. Lincecum can use this as an opportunity to understand how his mechanics can become off, and what he needs to do to correct it as quickly as he can. in the future, he can draw from this experience.
clearly Ninerjohn isnt a believer in the old saying "one in the hand is worth two in the bush". we know what we have in Lincecum. we dont know what Stephen Strasburg's path looks like 3 years down the road. potential means nothing until proven in real life. you cant make a smart business decision based around potential unless you have very little to lose from it.
[ Edited by Niners99 on Jun 30, 2010 at 01:50:09 ]