The thing about many is that people are still talking about how he moved up in weight. The reality is that he has moved up in weight with power. He has fought his last two fights at this weight so this is not an issue anymore. The issue is if he can take a punch at welterweight. He was hurt by Marquez at jr. lightweight and at featherweight. In his last two welterweight fights, Delahoya couldn't find him and Hatton was out cold almost immediately after it started.
The most obvious thing to me is that Cotto was never the same after the Margarito fight. You can see that when he gets pressured, like Clottey did, he starts to doubt himself. He has the skills to compete with Manny but I think Manny over all is the fresher fighter. Cotto is a more defensive fighter which means he will find ways to survive the early rounds. The mid to late rounds he tends to lose focus at times. I think Manny will capitalize on Cotto's lack of focus in these rounds and will pressure him into a stoppage.