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AB81Rules
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My Roster Breakdown(Locks, Strong Bubble, Bubble, & Longshot, with analysis, and cap numbers)
Quarterbacks:
Locks(2): Brian Hoyer($5.275M Cap Number, signed through 2018, $2.95M Base GTD), C.J. Beathard($641,572 2017 Cap Number, signed through 2020)
Strong Bubble(1): Matt Barkley($1,918,750 Cap Number, signed through 2018)
Longshot(1): Nick Mullens($465,666 Cap Number, signed through 2019, got $20K GTD, $2K SB, $18K Base)
Analysis: Hoyer and Beathard are the only locks to me, with Barkley being the likely third QB kept, but he will more than likely be the #2 QB, unless Beathard can unseat him, or he looks horrible, and is cut, which could mean we would sign another vet. Mullens is the longshot, but he has $18K GTD in his base salary, so he is likely destined for the practice squad.
Running Backs:
Locks(3): Carlos Hyde($1,171,443 Cap Number, signed through 2017), Joe Williams($622,346 Cap Number, signed through 2020), Kyle Juszyzck($3.75M Cap Number, signed through 2020, $2M Base GTD, last 2 years are option years)
Strong Bubble(3): Tim Hightower($1.107M Cap Number, signed through 2017, $150K Base GTD, has a $100K Roster Bonus for making the Week 1 53 Man Roster), Kapri Bibbs($615K Cap Number, signed through 2017), Matt Breida($466,666 Cap Numbers, signed through 2019, got $30K GTD, $5K SB, $25K Base)
Longshot(2): Raheem Mostert($615K Cap Number, signed through 2017), Tyler McCloskey($466,666 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $10K GTD, $5K SB, $5K Base)
Analysis: Hyde and Williams will be Shanahan's 1-2 punch, with Juscyzyk being a OW, or offensive weapon. Hightower has $150K GTD and a $100K roster bonus for making the week 1 53-man roster, Breida $25K GTD, while Bibbs has nothing guaranteed, but they did ship a 2018 4th rounder in order to get him here, even though the deal was more to trade up, John Lynch insisted on Bibbs being included. Mostert and McCloskey($5K GTD in base salary) are the longshot, with both having a shot at the practice squad. To me Breida makes the most sense as the more of a lock of the 3 strong bubble guys, I don't see him clearing waivers, while it comes down to Hightower or Bibbs, which comes down to Kyle's guy(Hightower) vs John's guy(Bibbs) in camp.
Wide Receivers:
Locks(5): Pierre Garcon($6.425M Cap Number, signed through 2021, $3.675M Base GTD, last 3 years are option years), Marquise Goodwin($3.25M Cap Number, signed through 2018, $1.95M Base GTD), Jeremy Kerley($2,016,666 Cap Number, signed through 2019, $1.1M Base GTD), Aldrick Robinson($1.8M Cap Number, signed through 2018, $200K Base GTD), Trent Taylor($515,486 Cap Number, signed through 2020)
Bubble(7): Bruce Ellington($808,607 Cap Number, signed through 2017), Aaron Burbridge($565,089 Cap Number, signed through 2019), Victor Bolden($467,666 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $43K GTD, $8K SB, $35K Base), Kendrick Bourne($466,666 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $25K GTD, $5K SB, $20K Base), B.J. Johnson III($465K Cap Number, signed through 2019), DeAndre Smelter($465K Cap Number, signed through 2017), DeAndre Carter($465K Cap Number, signed through 2018)
Analysis: Garcon, Goodwin, and Kerley will be the top 3 receivers, with Robinson being the #4 WR, and Taylor being the #5 WR and also Punt Returner. I have 7 players on the bubble, or basically fighting for one spot, if we keep 6. Of them, Bolden($35K GTD), and Bourne($20K) have guaranteed money in their deals. The likely front runner appears to be Johnson, as he was signed after a tryout, in which the 49ers cut UDFA KD Cannon, who got $40K GTD in his base salary. While Carter was brought in before the 49ers have either John Lynch or Kyle Shanahan hired, but after Baalke was fired, so I'm not sure what odds he has. While Ellington, Smelter, and Burbridge have the longest odds since they were brought in under former GM Trent Baalke. If none of these 7 can separate themselves from the rest, then I see them not keeping a 6th WR.
Tight Ends:
Locks(2): George Kittle($539,574 Cap Number, signed through 2020), Logan Paulsen($1M Cap Number, signed through 2017)
Strong Bubble(3): Vance McDonald($4,165,625 Cap Number, signed through 2021, $2.1M Base GTD), Garrett Celek($2.575M Cap Number, signed through 2019, $1M Base GTD), Cole Hikutini($468,333 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $110K GTD, $10K SB, $100K Base)
Bubble(1): Blake Bell($741,283 Cap Number, signed through 2018)
Analysis: To me Kittle and Paulsen are locks, Kittle has looked like he will be the teams #1 TE, while Paulsen knows Shanahan's offense, and was signed in the first week of free agency, and you don't cut players that were signed so soon, unless they do something dumb off the field. McDonald has his entire base salary GTD this season, plus 2018 and 2019 have guarantees on April 1 of each year, which could make it near impossible to deal him. Celek has $1M GTD, but Shanahan has said he likes Celek, so he has a legit shot of making the final 53, Hikutini has $100K GTD, while Bell has nothing left GTD. To me, Hikutini makes the most sense, he has so much potential, plus he won't clear waivers to get to the practice squad.
Centers:
Locks(2): Jeremy Zuttah($3.5M Cap Number, signed through 2018), Daniel Kilgore($1.7M Cap Number, signed through 2017)
Bubble(1): Tim Barnes($795K Cap Number, signed through 2017)
Analysis: Zuttah was brought in this offseason from Baltimore by swapping 6th round picks, and Kilgore is entering the final year of his deal, and he can also play inside at Guard, so to me both make the team, unless Tim Barnes, who got only a $20K bonus, is on the bubble, but he could be brought back after week 1 when he won't have his entire base salary guaranteed.
Offensive Guards:
Locks(2): Zane Beadles($4,033,333 Cap Number, signed through 2018, $500K Base GTD), Joshua Garnett($2,114,616 Cap Number, signed through 2019, $872,293 Base GTD)
Strong Bubble(1): Brandon Fusco($1.4M Cap Number, signed through 2017)
Longshot(3): Richard Levy($465K Cap Number, signed through 2019), Erik Magnuson($466,333 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $14K GTD, $4K SB, $10K Base), John Flynn($466,666 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $5K SB)
Analysis: Beadles and Garnett are, to me, the best option at LG and RG, respectively, while Fusco is a strong bubble, but he isn't a lock to me, he did get a $100K bonus, with $300K in LTBE incentives, but he needs to win a spot. While Levy and Flynn have no GTD money, while Magnuson has $10K GTD in his base salary, so I expect Magnuson to be on the teams practice squad.
Offensive Tackles:
Locks(3): Joe Staley($11,056,250 Cap Number, signed through 2019), Trent Brown($628,973 Cap Number, signed through 2018), Garry Gilliam($2,162,500 Cap Number, signed through 2017, $750K Base GTD)
Bubble(1): John Theus($604,403 Cap Number, signed through 2019)
Longshot(3): Darrell Williams($466,666 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $10K GTD, $5K SB, $5K Base), Norman Price($465K Cap Number, signed through 2018), Andrew Lauderdale($465K Cap Number, signed through 2018)
Analysis: Staley, Brown, and Gilliam are locks, and may be the only Tackles kept, I've seen some say Gilliam won't make it, but I don't see that as realistic, he signed a 1yr deal worth $2.2M, with $1.25M of that fully GTD at signing, so it makes no sense to cut Gilliam, plus they offered him a multi year deal, which he turned down to take the 1-year deal to likely hit free agency in 2018. Theus is the most likely player to be kept on the 53 man if they keep a 4th Tackle. Williams has a $5K GTD in his base salary, while Price and Lauderdale have no guaranteed money.
Defensive Lineman:
Locks(6): Solomon Thomas($5,118,978 Cap Number, signed through 2020, $465K Base GTD), DeForest Buckner($4,134,316 Cap Number, signed through 2019, $540K Base GTD), Earl Mitchell($2,921,875 Cap Number, signed through 2020, $1.65M Base GTD), D.J. Jones($501,967 Cap Number, signed through 2020), Elvis Dumervill($3.375M Cap Number, signed through 2018, $500K Base GTD, 2018 is a team option), Arik Armstead($2,684,353 Cap Number, signed through 2018, $1,329,784 Base GTD)
Strong Bubble(5): Ronald Blair($607,602 Cap Number, signed through 2019), Chris Jones($665K Cap Number, signed through 2017), Quinton Dial($2,756,750 Cap Number, signed through 2019, $1.4M Base GTD), Aaron Lynch($1,846,500 Cap Number, signed through 2017), Tank Carradine($1,978,125 Cap Number, signed through 2017, $1M Base GTD)
Bubble(1): Pita Taumoepenu($501,364 Cap Number, signed through 2020)
Longshot(1): Noble Nwachukwu($468,333 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $30K GTD, $10K SB, $20K Base)
Analysis: Thomas, Buckner, and Armstead are all 1st-round picks, in back to back to back years, while Mitchell was John Lynch's guy at the NT spot in the team's new 4-3 Under defense, while Dumervil is a great get on a 2-year deal, worth $8M, with $1.5M fully GTD, and Jones is the only true NT behind Mitchell. Blair, Jones, Dial, Lynch, and Carradine are the 5 guys fighting for what appears to be 2 spots, 3 max, with Blair, and Jones battling at the DT spot, Dial is probably a better fit at the DT spot instead of the NT spot, Lynch is competing at the LEO spot, but with Dumervil, and Armstead slated at that spot, and if he doesn't get or stay in shape, he could be on the outside looking in, while Carradine got the big End reps while Thomas was away due to an NFL rule, and he has $1M GTD, but looks like more of a longshot, as Armstead can also play that spot, as well as Buckner. Taumoepenu is a darkhorse, while Nwachukwu is likely destined for the practice squad, as he has $20K GTD in his base salary.
Linebackers:
Locks(5): Malcolm Smith($3,684,375 Cap Number, signed through 2021, $2M Base GTD, last 2 years are option years), Reuben Foster($1,642,830 Cap Number, signed through 2020, $465K base GTD), Dekoda Watson($1,533,333 Cap Number, signed through 2019), NaVorro Bowman($9,591,500 Cap Number, sigtned through 2022, $2.65M Base GTD), Brock Coyle($1.45M Cap Number, signed through 2017)
Strong Bubble(3): Ray-Ray Armstrong($1,341,666 Cap Number, signed through 2018, $850K Base GTD), Eli Harold($823,343 Cap Number, signed through 2018), Ahmad Brooks($6,148,750 Cap Number, signed through 2017)
Longshot(2): Jimmie Gilbert($469K Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $62K GTD, $12K SB, $50K Base), Donavin Newsom($466,666 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $30K GTD, $5K SB, $25K Base)
Analysis: I have 5 locks, Smith starts at the WILL spot, while Bowman is the MIKE linebacker, Foster backups both Smith and Bowman if healthy, while Watson(SAM) and Coyle(MIKE) know Robert Saleh's defense, while both will also be key special teams players. Armstrong has $850K GTD, and likely fits the WILL and MIKE spots, while Harold and Brooks fit in the SAM linebacker spot, with Brooks having the edge right now, as he got most of the first team snaps at the SAM backer. Gilbert($50K GTD) and Newsom($25K GTD) are longshots, and destined for the practice squad.
Cornerbacks:
Locks(4): Rashard Robinson($635,848 Cap Number, signed through 2019), Ahkello Witherspoon($708,393 Cap Number, signed through 2020), K'Wuan Williams($690K Cap Number, signed through 2017, has a $75K Roster Bonus for making the Week 1 53 Man Roster), Will Redmond($834,019 Cap Number, signed through 2019)
Strong Bubble(2): Dontae Johnson($790,136 Cap Number, signed through 2017), Keith Reaser($731,200 Cap Number, signed through 2017)
Bubble(1): Will Davis($615K Cap Number, signed through 2017)
Longshot(2): Prince Charles Iworah($465K Cap Number, signed through 2017), Zach Franklin($465K Cap Number, signed through 2019)
Analysis: I have 4 locks right now, with Robinson, Witherspoon and Williams as the starters, with Williams being the starting Slot CB, and the other two on the outside, with Redmond as a backup to Williams. Johnson and Reaser will battle for a backup spot behind Robinson and Witherspoon, I can see both making it, meaning they would carry 6 CBs. It seems Reaser has the upper hand, as he got first team reps opposite Robinson, while Johnson to me has the most potential, and wasn't used under former head coaches Jim Tomsula, and Chip Kelly, after having a good rookie season. Will Davis is more than likely going gonna be cut, but could be brought back after week 1 when only 25% of his salary would be guaranteed. Franklin and Iworah are longshots, with one likely making the practice squad.
Safeties:
Locks(4): Jimmie Ward($2,262,077 Cap Number, signed through 2018), Don Jones($981,250 Cap Number, signed through 2018, $500K Base GTD), Eric Reid($5.676M Cap Number, signed through 2017, $5.676M Base GTD), Jaquiski Tartt($1,373,731 Cap Number, signed through 2018)
Strong Bubble(1): Lorenzo Jerome($467,833 Cap Number, signed through 2019, Got $16K GTD, $7,500 SB, $8,500 Base)
Bubble(1): Adrian Colbert($486,200 Cap Number, signed through 2020)
Longshot(2): Vinnie Sunseri($465K Cap Number, signed through 2017), Chanceller James($465K Cap Number, signed through 2019)
Analysis: I have 4 locks, with Ward at FS, Reid at SS, Jones as a backup FS and key special teamer, and Tartt being a former 2nd round pick is a lock for now, but I can see him losing his spot if he doesn't play well, as he didn't get many reps this offseason. Jerome is the most likely to make the team, he has $8,500 GTD in his base salary, has been praised by GM John Lynch, who definitely knows the safety spot, being one of the best Safeties of his time, plus Jerome has the ability to play in the nickel as a slot CB. Colbert is a guy I see being cut, but he could surprise, and beat someone out, as he can also play CB in addition to Safety. While Sunseri and James are more longshots. I view one of James, Sunseri, and Colbert making the practice squad, with Colbert having the advantage, as he was the team's 7th round pick this offseason.
Specialists:
Locks(3): Robbie Gould($1.75M Cap Number, signed through 2018, $500K Base GTD), Bradley Pinion($663,550 Cap Number, signed through 2018), Kyle Nelson($1.15M Cap Number, signed through 2018)
Longshot(1): Nick Rose($465K Cap Number, signed through 2018)
Analysis: Pretty straight forward, no surprises here, Gould, Pinion, and Nelson are the 3 that should, and likely will make it, with Rose being just a camp leg to give the veteran Gould some rest.
Summary:
Locks- 41 Players
Strong Bubble- 19 Players
Bubble- 13 Players
Longshot- 17 Players