Week 17 2017: Thoughts after rewatching the last three games...

Again...work schedule has been a bear. No time to post in any length...but I have of course been watching. :)

1) Garoppolo: So 5 games in and its pretty clear...Jimmy Garoppolo is our guy. He's it. He isn't perfect (more on that later) but he's the best QB we've had here in a long, long time. I know he was a big stand offish when asked about a long term deal yesterday but I have no concerns there. He's now playing a different game...the game you play when you aren't yet under contract. If you profess your undying love for the team, they might just think they can get a discount.

There is absolutely zero reason Jimmy should take a discount contract.

a) He is just getting off the rookie contract of a 2nd round pick...IE, a small contract in NFL terms. He's never gotten his payday.

b) The team has 116 million in cap room (thats what I last read anyway) so there is no appealing to his desire to win so they can go out and get a few more guys.

In actuality, I think they should do the opposite. I think they should pay him 40-50 Million in guaranteed base salary in year one. Why? Several reasons.

a) Eat up salary cap space to meet the NFL salary floor

b) Eat up a huge chunk of the money owed to him in year one leaving smaller chunks in future years (IE giving them more space in future years)

c) Giving all that money as salary means it won't be prorated against the cap over the life of the deal so if for some reason they need to get out of the contract, there is zero dead money.

I actually thought about this several years ago when the Raiders were in a similar spot and it just seemed to make sense to front load contracts in a big way when you have unprecedented salary cap space.

As for his issues...yeah, the long ball is becoming a bit of a problem. I'm sure everyone has seen the below linked video already...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymIOgCfa9pY

I have no doubt that Jimmy will work on these issues, but even if he never becomes a great long ball thrower, he can make a very good living on those short to intermediate throws with that ludicrous release.

2) Kittle: OK. Yeah. This guy is growing on me in a big way. I've liked him all year but I'm really starting to see that he can be a big part of this offense moving forward. Give him this offseason to bulk up a bit and really study this offense and he just might be that safety blanket every great QB needs. I would by lying' tho if I said I didn't see this AM that Jimmy Graham isn't expected back in Seattle this season. The prospect of that guy in the red zone....wow.

Thats for a later conversation though. I'm very happy with Kittle as one of their TEs.

3) Goodwin: Really sucked to see his season end like that. I was pulling for him to get to 1000. I said many weeks ago that I didn't see him as a piece moving forward and I think he's proven me wrong. I was a fan of going after Taylor Gabriel this offseason but his presence along with Trent (more on him later) may have made that unneccesary. Dude has done something many can't...go from pure athlete to functioning NFL WR. I do think tho that his time as a primary receiver is over. I don't think he'll ever get 1000 yards, but thats OK. I think he'll be a very good 3rd option on many plays just as Gabriel was last year.

4) Taylor: The Niners draft in general appears to have been a very good one, but those twin 5th round picks are looking real damn good.

5) Hyde: I think he's played his last game as a 49er. He's a good player, but I don't think he's what Kyle wants. Kyle wants a game breaker. That why Breida has played so much and thats why he drafter Joe Williams. Hyde just isn't that guy. I hate to see him go but I think he's done in SF. Can I interest anyone in Sony Michel in round 2 or 3? I wanted Saquon Barkley but I think he's long gone by 9 or 10.

6) Foster: I love the guy, but man...whats up with him getting hurt in EVERY SINGLE GAME. Is he injury prone? Is he dramatic? Is he breaking down already? Just weird how much time he spends rolling around on the turf after plays. Hopefully this is just a one year thing but color me concerned.

7) Hype Train: I want so badly to jump onto the Hype Train, but I'm still at the train station pondering the ticket. There is so much to see and like but my head is telling me to slow down. There are still a number of holes and a lot of work to be done...but man does it look like a lot of fun.

The problem we will run into next year is that the Train is going full bore into next year and the expectations will be through the roof. The reality is that they will likely not meet those expectations simply because few teams every actually do. It should be a lot of fun though to watch and see where this team goes in the near future.

8) Free Agents: There are a few guys I have my eyes on but I think the reality is that there will be a lot more guys out there one players start getting cut for salary cap purposes. I've already read about Graham and Crabtree and both are intriguing. The guys I wanted were Devonte Adams and Sammy Watkins and one of those guys is already off the market. The other might not reach free agency either. Should be fun though with all that space.

9) Draft: Yeah, It sucks a bit to see that pick drop all the way to possibly #10 pending coin flip, but there is some drama in that coin flip being with the Raiders of all teams. Have 2 teams in the same market ever had twin rollercoaster seasons like this one? Who would have thought even 4 weeks ago that the 6-6 Raiders and the 2-10 49ers would have to flip over who got the 9th pick of the draft?

As for the selection itself? I'm hoping for a miracle with Saquon but that ain't happening. I think Quentin Nelson is the obvious pick, but things change.

10) 2018: Is it March yet?

Nice to have you back

thats some good reading. Thanks

Wow! Marvs back!

Started to worry about you

:)

So pay Jimmy G $50M in the first year ?! I guess that makes sense if we don't have a big FA haul this year.

Originally posted by Marvin49:

6) Foster: I love the guy, but man...whats up with him getting hurt in EVERY SINGLE GAME. Is he injury prone? Is he dramatic? Is he breaking down already? Just weird how much time he spends rolling around on the turf after plays. Hopefully this is just a one year thing but color me concerned.

half of his "injuries" were stingers. Very common, he's just a p***y. Most dudes get right back up and play with a numb shoulder.

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
half of his "injuries" were stingers. Very common, he's just a p***y. Most dudes get right back up and play with a numb shoulder.

Dude just needs to get bigger and stronger. Seems like most of his ouchies have been impact related.

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
he's just a p***y.

smh

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
So pay Jimmy G $50M in the first year ?! I guess that makes sense if we don't have a big FA haul this year.

If the Niners pay Jimmy 50 Mill, they would still have 66 mil which would be more than all but 3 other NFL teams. (Browns, Colts, Jets)

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
So pay Jimmy G $50M in the first year ?! I guess that makes sense if we don't have a big FA haul this year.

If the Niners pay Jimmy 50 Mill, they would still have 66 mil which would be more than all but 3 other NFL teams. (Browns, Colts, Jets)

Don't we run the risk though of having Jimmy G demand another contract after the first few years, because the last few years he doesn't make a lot of money. Wasn't that the issue with Darrell Revis back in the day...?

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
So pay Jimmy G $50M in the first year ?! I guess that makes sense if we don't have a big FA haul this year.

If the Niners pay Jimmy 50 Mill, they would still have 66 mil which would be more than all but 3 other NFL teams. (Browns, Colts, Jets)

Don't we run the risk though of having Jimmy G demand another contract after the first few years, because the last few years he doesn't make a lot of money. Wasn't that the issue with Darrell Revis back in the day...?

If we run that risk than I don't want him. LOL.

Its Math. He would get his money in the form of Salary instead of bonus....IE either way he'd be getting most of his money in year one anyway. Only difference is the form it would take.

Guaranteed either way.

The differences are largely about cap space, not actual dollars.

Example.

5 years, 125 million. 25 mill per. 50 mill guaranteed.

Option a) 50 mill Signing Bonus: 15 mill salary every year plus 10 mil in prorated bonus vs cap (he gets it all at signing), 25 mil per year on cap. If he is cut after year one, 40 million accelerates against 2019 cap.

Option b) 50 mill first year salary: 50 mill in year one and 18.5 in remaining years. No prorated bonus money, if cut after year one there is ZERO accelerated cap hit(IE, dead money).

Now the reality is it would be far more complex than either of these scenarios. I'm just explaining the difference. In reality his salaries would be larger in years 2-5 and a bit smaller in year one (tho still 50 million freakin dollars).

Great analysis Marv as usual. And great to see you back.

The only thing I have is about Hyde. I really hope we can keep him somehow, and Shanny don't fall into the "our guy" kind of thing. I made this point in another thread: Breida as an every down back. He's a very good change-of-pace back (which is needed), but not a bell-cow (which is needed first). There's currently no better option than Hyde on the roster; he's our best, most complete back we have.

Was Hyde's stats where we'd like to see them? No! But teams played the 49ers vastly different when Hyde was in the game vis-à-vis when Breida was in the game. Hyde didn't face the nickel defenses that Breida faced. Breida wasn't constantly facing stacked boxes like Hyde was constantly facing (with a below average run-blocking O-line too). If he were his 190lbs frame simply wouldn't hold up, especially having to face NFC West D-lines. This is why our play-action game more effective with Hyde in the backfield than Breida. Plus, and perhaps more importantly, Hyde's pass blocking is glaringly more superior than Breida. Breida's production is more of a reflection of Shanny's play calling than anything.

If we can get him back at a discount it'll be a mistake to not resign him. If we let him walk, fine! But we had better have a plan of replacement because Breida isn't that kind of back. And if we go into the 2018 season as Breida as our primary back then that position will regress and our offense will become one-dimensional, IMHO.

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
Great analysis Marv as usual. And great to see you back.

The only thing I have is about Hyde. I really hope we can keep him somehow, and Shanny don't fall into the "our guy" kind of thing. I made this point in another thread: Breida as an every down back. He's a very good change-of-pace back (which is needed), but not a bell-cow (which is needed first). There's currently no better option than Hyde on the roster; he's our best, most complete back we have.

Was Hyde's stats where we'd like to see them? No! But teams played the 49ers vastly different when Hyde was in the game vis-à-vis when Breida was in the game. Hyde didn't face the nickel defenses that Breida faced. Breida wasn't constantly facing stacked boxes like Hyde was constantly facing (with a below average run-blocking O-line too). If he were his 190lbs frame simply wouldn't hold up, especially having to face NFC West D-lines. This is why our play-action game more effective with Hyde in the backfield than Breida. Plus, and perhaps more importantly, Hyde's pass blocking is glaringly more superior than Breida. Breida's production is more of a reflection of Shanny's play calling than anything.

If we can get him back at a discount it'll be a mistake to not resign him. If we let him walk, fine! But we had better have a plan of replacement because Breida isn't that kind of back. And if we go into the 2018 season as Breida as our primary back then that position will regress and our offense will become one-dimensional, IMHO.

I don't think its an "our guy" thing. I think its a "game breaker" thing.

What I see in common in the backs Shanahan likes is game breaking speed. Carlos doesn't have it.

Breida and Williams have it and my bet is whomever they draft this year (and I'd count on at least one RB being selected) will have it as well.

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:

Great analysis Marv as usual. And great to see you back.

The only thing I have is about Hyde. I really hope we can keep him somehow, and Shanny don't fall into the "our guy" kind of thing. I made this point in another thread: Breida as an every down back. He's a very good change-of-pace back (which is needed), but not a bell-cow (which is needed first). There's currently no better option than Hyde on the roster; he's our best, most complete back we have.

Was Hyde's stats where we'd like to see them? No! But teams played the 49ers vastly different when Hyde was in the game vis-à-vis when Breida was in the game. Hyde didn't face the nickel defenses that Breida faced. Breida wasn't constantly facing stacked boxes like Hyde was constantly facing (with a below average run-blocking O-line too). If he were his 190lbs frame simply wouldn't hold up, especially having to face NFC West D-lines. This is why our play-action game more effective with Hyde in the backfield than Breida. Plus, and perhaps more importantly, Hyde's pass blocking is glaringly more superior than Breida. Breida's production is more of a reflection of Shanny's play calling than anything.

If we can get him back at a discount it'll be a mistake to not resign him. If we let him walk, fine! But we had better have a plan of replacement because Breida isn't that kind of back. And if we go into the 2018 season as Breida as our primary back then that position will regress and our offense will become one-dimensional, IMHO.

I dis-agree about Breida facing stacked D. Breida wasn't a 3rd down back or a change of pace back. He saw as many base D looks as Hyde did.

And Breida won't be a #1 next year any more than Tevin Coleman was for Atl.

We will find a 200 carry back but it won't be Hyde.