Injuries - 9-Year Analysis

Updated annually in March/April once released.

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For over 15 years, Football Outsiders has been tracking injuries via their Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) formula that looks deeper into the quantity and quality of injuries. Quite simply, there is an AGL Threshold (between 65.9 - 82.3 on their scale), that if your team is under that threshold, the chance of getting to the playoffs is slim to none. Conversely, if your team is above the threshold, your chance of making the playoffs goes up dramatically.


But by how much? The teams under this threshold average just 6.77 wins and the teams over it, average 9.37 wins. We all know 9 wins gives you a legit chance of making the playoffs even with a 17-game schedule. In short, there seems to be a direct correlation between team AGL (health) and the number of wins and consequently, the probability of making the playoffs.

What does that mean for us? The San Francisco 49ers over the past 9 years have ranked as the 31st most injured team, only behind Washington, as the most injured team in the NFL. And we've closed the gap and only trail Washington by .2 points on the aggregate average rank over that entire span.

Kyle Shanahan spoke of the importance of staying healthy:

"I feel confident with our guys," Shanahan said. "We got some guys who compete. Collectively, we have a smart group of people who can all play together. And I think we'll be able to surprise some people. But the biggest thing that always comes into (play) is injuries."

In every analysis, there are outliers, naturally...teams that had a high AGL (i.e. lots of quality injuries) one year but still made the playoffs, but in ALL of these cases, they had a veteran or Franchise QB such as Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, etc. to pull them through that. You can now add Jimmy Garoppolo to that list based on 2019. But NONE of them had enough steam to win a Superbowl.

What was also interesting is that many teams that were hit hard one year (i.e. Chicago 2017-2018 - Playoffs), rebounded the next year (extreme/outlier stats). Not us...Washington and San Francisco have been consistently hammered every year. Conversely, our rivals in the NFCW in Seattle and Los Angeles, remain two of the healthiest teams, ranked in the top 5 over this same span.

So the next time a fan says, "Every team deals with injuries" you can point to the fact that while all teams do deal with injuries, not all teams deal with the same level of quantity and quality of injuries and this fact has a direct correlation to wins and losses and your team's chances of making the playoffs and winning that chip.

So here's to a healthy 2023!

We're loooooooooooooooooooooooong overdue.

Football Outsiders - Adjusted Games Lost

PS: This correlation appears to be as strong as the, 'turnovers-to-wins/losses correlation' metric.

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Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest
2008 - 6th
2009 - 23rd
2010 - 4th
2011 - 8th (NFCCG)
2012 - 1st (Superbowl)
2013 - 23rd (NFCCG)
2014 - 26th
2015 - 26th
2016 - 24th
2017 - 23rd
2018 - 29th
2019 - 27th (Superbowl)
2020 - 32nd
2021 - 29th (NFCCG)
2022 - 24th (NFCCG)

Neat but I like to get my stats bia tiny spreadsheets.

What is most telling is Seattle's ability to escape the injury bug the last 3 years by a significant margin. They're overdue for some injuries. Also, it doesn't help our cause when our GM was taking multiple risks every year in the draft. Hopefully that chapter is now closed.

Originally posted by SoCold:

Neat but I like to get my stats bia tiny spreadsheets.

LMAO...I tried for you brother. It's just not the same without a micro spreadsheet.

Originally posted by ltrain:

Thanks!!! If you're on your phone, hold down on the pic and save/download to your gallery. Then view it in your downloads/gallery where you can zoom in to see bigger.

Originally posted by ltrain:

What is most telling is Seattle's ability to escape the injury bug the last 3 years by a significant margin. They're overdue for some injuries. Also, it doesn't help our cause when our GM was taking multiple risks every year in the draft. Hopefully that chapter is now closed.

I couldn't agree more. I hate them so much!!!

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by SoCold:
Neat but I like to get my stats bia tiny spreadsheets.

LMAO...I tried for you brother. It's just not the same without a micro spreadsheet.

It's neat to break it down but in all you can chuck it all up to bad luck.

Take 2014 for example.
Bowman breaking his knee was just a stupid freak play. We didn't have him for 2014. Then we lost Willis. Then we lost their replacement Borland. Kilgore was lost along with have the OL and have the team.The team played 3/4 of the season with 3rd and 4th string players.

It's common sense that team which finished 8-8 would have made the playoff had it not lost have it's starters.

Originally posted by SoCold:

It's neat to break it down but in all you can chuck it all up to bad luck.

Take 2014 for example.
Bowman breaking his knee was just a stupid freak play. We didn't have him for 2014. Then we lost Willis. Then we lost their replacement Borland. Kilgore was lost along with have the OL and have the team.The team played 3/4 of the season with 3rd and 4th string players.

It's common sense that team which finished 8-8 would have made the playoff had it not lost have it's starters.

Yeah man, it certainly feels like we've been cursed and this pretty much back backs it up. Hopefully that's our yin to our yang and we rebound this year or next, to one of the healthiest teams like we see here for many teams/trends.

Yeah, even Ginn's loss that lead to Kyle Williams having to field punts.

It wasn't just the injuries but to who and when we lost those guys that sunk us.

Sooooo many guys like AA trying to play through major injuries because we were down in numbers already and had no other options. Sad. It's been a rough ride. Hopefully the pendulum starts to swing in the opposite direction for us and Seattle starts heading in reverse.

Baalke drafting damaged goods had a lot to do with it.

Originally posted by Young2Rice:

Baalke drafting damaged goods had a lot to do with it.

Yeah, having a couple players each year start the year on I.R. and not designated to return and miss all 16 games adds to this.

But far more to the other 22+17+21 players put on I.R. who were not ACL's.

I don't get it. 30th being almost the least injured team? #1 being the most injured throughout the years?

Originally posted by defenderDX:

I don't get it. 30th being almost the least injured team? #1 being the most injured throughout the years?

Correct...the lower the average rank over 3 years, the healthiest.

I blame the grass!

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
I blame the grass!

I blame Reid.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Young2Rice:

Baalke drafting damaged goods had a lot to do with it.

Yeah, having a couple players each year start the year on I.R. and not designated to return and miss all 16 games adds to this.

But far more to the other 22+17+21 players put on I.R. who were not ACL's.

We also got a lot of projects like ellington who was a recently converted basketball player. Same with AA, hayne and some others. Those guys probably aren't used to the violence of the game and sustain injuries easily. Also having a bunch of knuckleheads like aldon who didn't take care of themselves off the field contributed.