Rebuilding Strategy Discussion

Every fan, save the younger generation of Patriot followers, knows what it is like to watch your team bottom out and decide to blow it up and start over. New staff, new philosophy, and new players. As the rebuild starts, every fan has his or her own theories about how it should be done. They often cite recent turnarounds other clubs have made as evidence for their own theories. Ultimately, fans just have to sit back and watch the new regime create and implement a plan. January becomes the worst month as we look for any clue as to the direction the rebuild will take. February brings rumors and a few early signings, but little can be read into these early moments. Now, FINALLY, the rebuild has taken form. The guessing games can stop and interpretation can ensue. It got me thinking about rebuild strategies and the pros/cons for each. I thought I would take a crack at naming these strategies and defining our current trajectory.

1. Serving Youth:
Many people wanted us to follow this path. Teams that choose this path set about selling off any veteran asset the team has in an attempt to gain draft assets or cap space. Anyone over the age of 26 is seen as expendable. The team focuses on bringing in as many young players as it can through the draft, UDFA, or even young free agents from around the league. The teams that are likely to choose this strategy are teams that have hit bottom because of age, lack of athleticism, and a lack of excitement for fans. Bring 90 of the fastest, most athletic, young players into training camp and hope that you have standouts in each positional group to build around for the future.

• Pros: Young players come cheap. Good ones outperform their contracts. Young players are also easier to imprint on, so coaches can establish culture easier.
• Cons: Drafts are a crap shoot. If a team can bring in three quality starters from a draft, it is considered a huge success. Banking the team's future on one generation of young players depends more on luck than on effort.

2. Compete ASAP:
This plan is only possible if the rebuilding team has a decent amount of cap space or is able to purge many of the bad contracts that led to the rebuilding need. The team then uses that cap space to over pay for free agents who are in or just leaving their prime. These contracts are based on performance up to that point and the signings are intended to improve the team as quickly as possible. Sometimes that means bringing in players who have attitude issues or off the field problems. These teams will often even trade away draft assets in an attempt to bring in players who can help immediately. Think Washington Redskins.

• Pros: Fans see an immediate return on investment, at least from an excitement perspective. If the team happens to be in a particularly weak division, the playoffs could be a one year goal.
• Cons: If any of the signings don't work out, the team can find itself in cap trouble with nothing to show for it. It is also difficult to establish an enduring culture with "mercenary" type players.

3. Take The Long Way Home: *(What I see us doing)
The Patriots have set the standard that every franchise wants to match. Of course, it's easy to do so with Tom Brady, but the real success they have been able to achieve comes from creating and establishing a culture that is passed down from veteran to rookie in a self-perpetuating cycle. The "Patriot Way" of doing things is legendary and has taken on a life of its own. Players come in and are focused on what they can do to help the machine run rather than the other way around. As much as I hate seeing them win, it is a glorious sight to see a machine run so effectively. They are like the German National Soccer Team in that way. Now, how can this be achieved? It begins by having a clear vision for the culture you want to create. This is John Lynch's job and the reason I believe he was hired. Lynch has enough experience to identify talent, but he has scouts to do that. His job is to help craft a vision for how the machine will operate. He cannot waver from his vision. He must be firm and know that this will take time. Next, you need an engineer to design the components of the machine. Shanahan needs to define the gears and how each will work in syncopation to make the machine run. Now, sticking with the "Machine" metaphor, any engineer will tell you that you need to build the machine before you can improve upon it. When Lynch and Shanahan took over, this team was just a pile of scrap metal. Right now they are going about cleaning out the pieces that are useless to their vision and importing "gears" for the first version of the machine that they have in mind. The free agents that are being brought in now will undoubtedly make this team better, create more wins, and even make this team competitive for the playoffs, but that is not the end goal. They are bringing in players for each unit who can show their younger counterparts how to be a gear in this particular machine. If this plan is successful, the machine becomes self-sustaining.

• Pros: This rebuild strategy is intended to create long-term, sustainable success. If one gear starts to fail, the machine won't fall apart, so it is difficult for one or more player to bring this down.
• Cons: Every machine needs an engine. Tom Brady is the central component to the Patriot machine. Ray Lewis was it for the Ravens. These types of players are generational and difficult to find.

So, this rebuild will require patience, but I think we are on the right path! Thoughts?

Good post

I see a lot of the recent signing as only 2-3 year bridges as we figure out the true identity of our team.

Scenario 3 is obviously most appealing, but scenario 1 is kinda where we are at right now imo

Years 3 and 4 will be very telling years of this rebuild.

I agree with you, the FAs we brought in are mostly vets that know the systems and fit the schemes (O and D). Many of these vets, though they will play a huge part in building it, will not be here when we are close to that "long-term sustainable" success. Some of these vets will fail. We'll look back and criticize the signing. Some of these vets will gone after 2 years. Most won't be here in 4.

Where is the key in all of this? The draft. We have got to get back to drafting well, or we will be repeating this offseason in 3 years. In 3-4 years we will see if we've been drafting well. We will be clearing cap space (by cutting vets) to re-sign the better players from the previous couple of drafts, as well as the next two. These next two drafts are so important to this rebuild. Unless Shanny sees a FQBotF sitting there at 2, I'm advocating for a trade down - as many trade downs as we can get. The bottom of the 1st through the middle of the 4th is loaded with talent at positions of need. And we need a lot of talent.

I love this plan; I'm totally bought in, and so far we're executing it really well imo. In order for all of this to work, the draft is still the key.

It is obvious that where we will succeed will be on if we can start hitting on our drafts. The players we brought in are mainly guys to be bridge players, and to teach the young guys we have, and the young guys we are going to draft how to play in the system, and hopefully how to be a professional.

Great post Karma

Originally posted by Lobo49er:

Years 3 and 4 will be very telling years of this rebuild.

I love this plan; I'm totally bought in, and so far we're executing it really well imo. In order for all of this to work, the draft is still the key.

And This!

Originally posted by Karma:

So, this rebuild will require patience, but I think we are on the right path! Thoughts?

Terrific post and topic. To me, and I've been saying this for years esp. re: the HaRoman era, everything starts with philosophy. You are describing a current Patriots culture but Bill Walsh created it first. But Walsh couldn't create the machine until he had a philosophy and his philosophy, like Kyle today, is the WCO. On defense, it's the 4-3 under (George Seifert). Now that you have your modern-day battle-tested philosophies, NOW you review your personnel.

Year 1, ShanaLynch walk in and see we're the youngest team in the NFL with older players like Dawson, Bethea, Brooks, Dorsey, etc. all but done. So what's missing? Veterans! Let's go get some 25-29 year old veterans who know our systems/philosophies who can help install the systems in year 1 and start passing that knowledge onto this young group. Then, add more young talent via the draft who will come into the fold and learn from the current players who are learning from the veterans who are being reinforced by the coaches who are reinforced by their philosophies. Now you've laid your foundation in year 1.

PLAN: Remember, these philosophies will take 3 years to learn and master (esp. the WCO) so let's target veterans on offense and since the 4-3 will take less time to master, focus that more on the draft.

Year 2, will be about purging the bottom of the roster, helping players make leaps into year 2, and adding a few premier players at key positions. Now you're starting to see some cornerstones taking on more leadership. The machine is starting to move down hill and is picking up some pace.

Year 3, depth is pushing starters hard, more impact players are added and both the WCO and 4-3 is getting close to being fully mastered. This is a playoff caliber team.

Year 4, commentators are asking when injuries happen, "Is it the system or the players? They just don't miss a beat!"

In year 1 depending on if Bowmans healthy, what we do the rest of free agency, and who we get in the draft, our team could realistically be looking at playoffs. With the free agents we brought in that know the systems on offense and defense, the transition will be a lot faster. If by some miracle we get Cousins and we draft well by either getting Garrett, Williams, Davis or Thomas,we could be looking at a deep run in the playoffs, maybe even Super Bowl. An example for us would be the 98 rams who went 4-12 and then won the Super Bowl. They started a QB who previously played in the Arena League in Kurt Warner, brought over Marshall Faulk from Indy and drafted Tory Holt. What thos says is that if you get the right pieces in nothing is impossible.

Unfortunately many of our fanbase will get upset if no playoffs in year 2. Heck even our owner. If you are going to do it right you are looking at a 5 year job.

Just to bring a little discussion the webzone on what's been a slow news day so far, I've got a little something-something to get everyone talking:
Few questions for everyone:
1. Do we want to draft a FS early (Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, Obi Melifonwu) in order to keep Ward at CB, or move him and wait to draft a FS?
2. Do we want Tramaine Brock, would we rather see if he has trade value, or cut him?
3. Trubisky @ 2, Mahomes @ 34, Peterman in 3rd/4th, none of the above? (Rank in order)
4. Do we need a 6'2"+ WR this year, by next year, or at all?
5. Would you ever draft Joe Mixon? (we were at the pro day)
6. Would you give up a 6th or 7th for Josh Gordon to avoid his market once the Browns cut him ($1M salary this year)?
7. Biggest need in the 1st round?
8. Best FA next year? (exclude Cousins, we all want him)
9. Can Arik Armstead work in the 4-3?
10. What remaining FA would you like to bring in most?

Originally posted by Hawaii49er:

Great post Karma

Originally posted by Lobo49er:

Years 3 and 4 will be very telling years of this rebuild.

I love this plan; I'm totally bought in, and so far we're executing it really well imo. In order for all of this to work, the draft is still the key.

And This!

Agreed. Here's where I think the Niners organization is right now:

What they have
A decent front office with 2 experienced people in Mayhew and Peters supporting a good front man in Lynch
A coaching staff with a detailed vision of how they want to run their offense and defense
A head coach who has earned loyalty from certain players over the years as a coordinator

What they have acquired
A bunch of veterans with experience in the offensive and defensive systems to ease the transition
Decent players who fit the system, want the chance to play and have no fear of the organization's recent problems

What they still need
A franchise QB
A consistent pass rush
Better DB's especially at FS and at CB
Overall depth

Can't wait to see what the front office does with the draft. They should be able to fill all their needs except for the franchise QB in this draft, with Cousins waiting in the wings. At least we as Niners fans won't have to worry if they will be proactive in their quest to get our team back to respectability.

Originally posted by 49erInTheMidwest:

Just to bring a little discussion the webzone on what's been a slow news day so far, I've got a little something-something to get everyone talking:
Few questions for everyone:
1. Do we want to draft a FS early (Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, Obi Melifonwu) in order to keep Ward at CB, or move him and wait to draft a FS? - No, Lynch already pinned Ward to FS and Tartt to SS. Both have skill sets that could legitimately fit nicely into this 4-3. I trust Lynch on Safeties.
2. Do we want Tramaine Brock, would we rather see if he has trade value, or cut him? - No real need to cut him but could save a few million in cap space doing so. This is a deep CB draft full of tall physical CB's we can pair with Robinson.
3. Trubisky @ 2, Mahomes @ 34, Peterman in 3rd/4th, none of the above? (Rank in order) - Peterman is clearly the best fit right now and could grow into a Cousins 2.0 here. But Trubisky may have a higher ceiling but it would be a massive risk at #2. So I doubt we go that route.
4. Do we need a 6'2"+ WR this year, by next year, or at all? - It's not a necessity but we're in great position to get either Mike Williams or Corey Davis. It should be heavily considered, even at #2. Ideally, we're looking for a small trade back.
5. Would you ever draft Joe Mixon? (we were at the pro day) - Hard to say
6. Would you give up a 6th or 7th for Josh Gordon to avoid his market once the Browns cut him ($1M salary this year)? - Sure. We've got time and having a true Z would allow us not to rush a Williams/Davis and find out about our new locker room.
7. Biggest need in the 1st round? - Without a doubt, FQB and dominant edge rusher
8. Best FA next year? (exclude Cousins, we all want him) - Too focused on this year right now
9. Can Arik Armstead work in the 4-3? - No question. In fact, if we get a true NT/1T and LEO, he could be a monster at the 3T as he'd be 1on1
10. What remaining FA would you like to bring in most? I listed all of mine in the Free Agent forum in the Tracker thread.

^

Cool.

1. Ward to FS. Don't need to draft a safety in CB deep draft.
2. Keep Brock. I don't see slot of trade value. If he's our starting CB, then we're still rebuilding our secondary. If he's a backup, then we're looking pretty good.
3. Whatever Shanny does at this position >>> my opinion. That being said, if we trade down, and accumulate picks, Mahomes is my personal favorite. If not, Peterman has best value.
4. the sooner we draft a #1 WR, the sooner his first year of sucking in the NFL is done. Get one now.
5. Yes. Mixon can help a team win football games. We're fooling ourselves if we think he's the only guy in this draft who is an a*****e.
6. Maybe a 7th. 7th round picks don't make it much in the NFL anyway. If you swing for the fences on them, eventually one will hit.
7. Leo
8. Gore (Excluding QBs, I'll go with Melvin Ingram, again)
9. It isn't the 4-3 we need to worry about. The 4-3 were running has a spot for everybody. Question is, can AA play to his draft pick. Hope so.
10. Hankins.

Like your seeing with the Pats with signing vets, I do see that we will sign veterans for a good value, then let them go if they have fulfilled that objective. Then we get another those of quality and value.

That's why we are not seeing the Pats make a big deal of losing such players like Bennett and Long......they are replaceable and have fulfilled their purpose

Originally posted by 49erInTheMidwest:
Just to bring a little discussion the webzone on what's been a slow news day so far, I've got a little something-something to get everyone talking:
Few questions for everyone:
1. Do we want to draft a FS early (Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, Obi Melifonwu) in order to keep Ward at CB, or move him and wait to draft a FS?
2. Do we want Tramaine Brock, would we rather see if he has trade value, or cut him?
3. Trubisky @ 2, Mahomes @ 34, Peterman in 3rd/4th, none of the above? (Rank in order)
4. Do we need a 6'2"+ WR this year, by next year, or at all?
5. Would you ever draft Joe Mixon? (we were at the pro day)
6. Would you give up a 6th or 7th for Josh Gordon to avoid his market once the Browns cut him ($1M salary this year)?
7. Biggest need in the 1st round?
8. Best FA next year? (exclude Cousins, we all want him)
9. Can Arik Armstead work in the 4-3?
10. What remaining FA would you like to bring in most?

Those are good questions in general but they are more about tactics - responses to particular circumstances of opportunities and competition. I think the OP is asking about strategic approaches - long range goals and philosophies. I think it may muddle things up too much if the discussion mixes up tactical options with strategic options. There are probably other threads where your questions fit the purpose of the thread starter better.

Edit: I see while I was far**ng around writing this post, more posts were added where the talk is more of tactical choices than strategic so I guess the muddle is already well under way. Oh well, it's still an interesting discussion.

Good points Karma. It's exactly why Shanahan/Lynch brought in guys like Garcon, Hoyer, Paulsen & I'll include Juszczyk in that group, as well. They're all guys who'll willingly take on leadership roles to show the younger players how it's done...call it the "Niner Way". Once they learn Shanahan's way of doing things, there are other vets who'll pitch in...guys like Staley, Kilgore, Bowman, Mitchell, etc. The coaching staff will of course play a huge role into establishing the Niner Way...it all starts with Coach and Lynch. They set the tone for the entire organization...and I'd say they're off to a great start.