Roster Analysis: Before the Draft and Free Agency

I'm far more cynical of our roster on defense. I think we need 5 new starters on defense. 6 if bow isn't healthy.

I don't think our TE corps is very good beyond VMac's playmaking abilities. I doubt Shanahan will be very enthused. There's really no one who's what you'd call a reliable target. Acquiring Jack Doyle would change that.

I really can't disagree with your analysis overall. 2017 will be huge in terms of upgrading the roster...loads of cap space and at least 11 picks in the draft. There are a number of players in both FA and the draft to put us on a solid road to recovery, IMHO.

Originally posted by Nuns:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Coming off the edge...I'm curious who would become our best LEO...Blair? Lynch? Harold? Carradine?

This is going to be a crucial position. With 4 men up front, we should be better stopping the run but we need those ends to be able to pass rush. Lynch is an ideal SAM in the 3-4 where he's on the left side of the defense. This will be a hand in the dirt, on the LOS and coming off the right end position.

I'm hoping tank was just misused, but boy did he look slow last year. I'm going to guess Harold or Blair out of that bunch. Honestly though, I'm hoping this is addressed in free agency or the draft.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

It'll be really interesting to see Blair's development from year one to year two. If he can make major strides, we could be better off than we think at the DE position. He did pick up three sacks in limited action as a rookie, so naturally you'd expect him to build on that.

Yeah, this is going to be fun to watch...I'm with you both; really hoping one of these guys proves development and a more natural fit now.

Originally posted by PacTiger:

I'm far more cynical of our roster on defense. I think we need 5 new starters on defense. 6 if bow isn't healthy.

Seems about right...need an impact LEO (Avril), LDE (Bennett), ILB (Wagner), OLB (Wright) and FS (Thomas). There's a chance we have a couple fits as of today...here's to looking to a great free agency and draft!

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by PacTiger:
I'm far more cynical of our roster on defense. I think we need 5 new starters on defense. 6 if bow isn't healthy.

Seems about right...need an impact LEO (Avril), LDE (Bennett), ILB (Wagner), OLB (Wright) and FS (Thomas). There's a chance we have a couple fits as of today...here's to looking to a great free agency and draft!

Just because we lost Willis, J Smith, A Smith, McDonald doesn't...oh...yes, it actually does mean the defense was depleted of talent! Get healthy Bowman...you are our only blue chip star!

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by PacTiger:

I'm far more cynical of our roster on defense. I think we need 5 new starters on defense. 6 if bow isn't healthy.

Seems about right...need an impact LEO (Avril), LDE (Bennett), ILB (Wagner), OLB (Wright) and FS (Thomas). There's a chance we have a couple fits as of today...here's to looking to a great free agency and draft!

Just because we lost Willis, J Smith, A Smith, McDonald doesn't...oh...yes, it actually does mean the defense was depleted of talent! Get healthy Bowman...you are our only blue chip star!

Truth.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by PacTiger:
I'm far more cynical of our roster on defense. I think we need 5 new starters on defense. 6 if bow isn't healthy.

Seems about right...need an impact LEO (Avril), LDE (Bennett), ILB (Wagner), OLB (Wright) and FS (Thomas). There's a chance we have a couple fits as of today...here's to looking to a great free agency and draft!

Just because we lost Willis, J Smith, A Smith, McDonald doesn't...oh...yes, it actually does mean the defense was depleted of talent! Get healthy Bowman...you are our only blue chip star!

Truth.

I'll help fix a few, LEO(Melvin Ingram of Chargers), LDE is tough, I expect Armstead to get the nod there, I think the bigger question mark is who plays next to Buckner, I'd say throw as much money at Brandon Williams as soon as 4pm est March 9th hits, same for Ingram. FS wise, we could fix that in the draft with Malik Hooker, or Jamal Adams. OLB is tough, I'd have to check the FAs out there. Also I'd say we're not good at CB as people think we are, Robinson is the only one I feel good about, Redmond needs to come back healthy, I love Johnson, as long as they use him, which Chip & Tomsula didn't. I'd cut bait with Brock, he's not a #1 CB, I'd rather sign someone like AJ Bouye of Houston, or draft a CB like Marshon Lattimore(OSU), Teez Tabor(UF), Quincy Wilson(UF), Sidney Jones(UW), Desmond King(Iowa, he could also be a S, as he is listed as a S in the combine list), Gareon Conley(OSU), Marlon Humphrey(BAMA).

Originally posted by Waterbear:
The only player I disagree on in the keep versus let go part of your post is Tiller. I think he looks somewhat quick for a guard and would be valuable as a backup or starter in the future.

I also do not understand the overall idea of switching to a 4-3 and specifically how Armstead and Buckner would fit in. How are two 6'7 plus 3-4 DE's going to fit in this system. To me, Dorsey and Carradine are the only players on this roster that fit a 4-3 better than a 3-4.

The 4-3 is better suited to our personnel. 3-4 demands a block eating/run stuffing NT (which we don't have), DEs who can occupy OT/OG while holding an edge (we might have 1 of 2), 2 ILBs who can stuff and cover (Bowman if he comes back healthy - ie we're short 1) and an edge rusher to pressure the QB (zero on the roster).

Neither Buckner or Armstead are prototypical 3-4 DE's, and in fact are better suited to a 4-3 as either 5 tech DE or a 3 tech DT. Both have good linear drive and size to close up passing lanes but struggle setting an edge. In a 3-4 the DEs have to be able to hold the point against a G/T double team (think Justin Smith) whereas in a 4-3 the presence of an inside DT limits the ability for that to happen.

We haven't had the personnel to run a true 3-4 since we lost Sopoaga and Justin Smith - Bowman and Willis covered up alot of limitations from our NT position. We probably could have saved some embarrassment last season by switching to a pure 4-3 once Bowman went down. No NT and no ILBs makes for a leaky 3-4.

Better place for this...with a little help from my friends in here...fire away!

I'll go right down the line on some wishful thinking but mostly, try to keep it realistic as well.

Notes: In the draft, since Garrett is gone and ShanaLynch aren't sold on Trubisky, we go with a minor trade-back with the Jets and stay inside the top 6 and pick up an extra 2nd this year (40th), next year's 2nd and more (1,000 points). I cover the top 5 picks. In free agency, since we won't be paying for a FQB this year, ShanaLynch make a couple larger splashes in free agency (Britt/Williams/Bouye) and add a number of second-tier free agent starters and resign several of our own who fit the Seattle defense and WCO well. 6 of the 18 are resigns. 3 are larger contracts (Britt/Williams/Bouye) but nothing remotely back-breaking. The other 9 signings are second-third tier contracts including special teams. Roughly $80M of $100M+

Draft = 5: XWR Mike Williams, LEO/RDE Taco Charlton, LG Forrest Lamp, QB Nathan Peterman & RB Wayne Gallman
(Free Agency = 18): QB's Brian Hoyer & Ryan Nassib, XWR's Kenny Britt & Rod Streater, YWR Jeremy Kerley, ZWR Ted Ginn Jr., RB DuJuan Harris, FB Patrick DiMarco, C Joe Hawley, RG Andrew Tiller, DE Andre Branch, LDT Brandon Williams, SAM Malcolm Smith, MLB's Sean Spence & Nick Bellore, WLB's Kevin Minter & Gerald Hodges and RCB A.J. Bouye

Offense --- 25
QB: (Brian Hoyer); (Ryan Nassib) & Nathan Peterman --- The Kaepernick era is finally over. No doubt, ShanaLynch will go hard for both Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo but it will probably be to no avail. Therefore, they go the safer "bridge" route where we are able to acquire Brian Hoyer & Ryan Nassib in free agency (both pocket passers familiar with the WCO) and draft the best pro-style QB in Nathan Peterman in the 3rd round; similar to Kirk Cousins in the 4th. Nassib could certainly beat out Hoyer too.
RB1: Carlos Hyde; Wayne Gallman --- Nice backup to Hyde here via the draft.
RB2: (DuJuan Harris) --- ShanaLynch resign Harris to play a similar role as Coleman in ATL.
FB: (Patrick DiMarco) --- Who better for Kyle's offense?
TE: Vance McDonald; Garrett Celek & Blake Bell --- ShanaLynch likes this group for now and wants to see what they can do in his WCO.
XWR: (Kenny Britt); Mike Williams & (Rod Streater) --- ShanaLynch go hard in free agency for wide receivers and get their men. Kenny Britt will play a prominent role in this offense as will Jeremy Kerley. They also resign Streater for depth. But the first pick of the ShanaLynch era goes to, Mike Williams. He'll learn all three WR positions and grow into a Julio Jones-like role for us.
YWR: Jeremy Kerley --- Kerley is a must resign and they lock him up to play a similar role to Taylor Gabriel.
ZWR: Torrey Smith; (Tedd Ginn Jr.) --- The signing of Ginn adds true depth and versatility and adds to our ST returning units and helps flips our WR core into a legit, diverse group. Kyle wanted speed and he got it.
LOT: Joe Staley; John Theus --- Legit.
LG: Forrest Lamp; Zane Beadles --- ShanaLynch draft Forrest Lamp with their 3rd pick who has played C, G, & T.
C: (Joe Hawley); Daniel Kilgore --- ShanaLynch go for a veteran C in Hawley like Kyle did in ATL with Alex Mack; he's be able to handle all the calls of his WCO which frees up the QB to think less.
RG: Joshua Garnett; (Andrew Tiller) --- ShanaLynch resign Tiller to push Garnett.
ROT: Trenton Brown --- ShanaLynch want to see the big cat in this system before anything else. With a FB, we can still run power when needed.

Defense --- 25
LDE: Arik Armstead; Aaron Lynch & (Andre Branch) --- Lynch is best on the left side and is excellent against the run and settles in there on many base downs in rotation with Armstead and ShanaLynch make a small splash in free agency with Andre Branch who can rush from both DE spots in our 4-3.
LDT: (Brandon Williams); Quinton Dial --- ShanaLynch sticks to their word on wanting to stop the run and gets the best NT in Brandon Williams in free agency.
RDT: DeForest Bucker --- It's on!
RDE/LEO: Taco Charlton; Ronald Blair & Eli Harold --- Time to get after that QB!
SAM: (Malcolm Smith); (Gerald Hodges) --- ShanaLynch bring in a familiar LB to this Seattle defense and Hodges is a nice resigning (4th best per PFF). There could be a real competition here.
MLB: Navarro Bowman; (Sean Spence) & (Nick Bellore) --- Here's to never having to see Bellore as a starter again (ST only). ShanaLynch add some much needed quality depth in Sean Spence.
WLB: (Kevin Minter); Ray-Ray Armstrong --- Nice young player in Minter and quality depth with Ray-Ray (ST). There could be a real competition here as well.
LCB: Rashard Robinson; Dontae Johnson --- It's all about jam-press now! The draft may add another long CB with better speed/technique than DJ.
RCB: (A.J. Bouye); Keith Reaser --- ShanaLynch make the biggest $plash in free agency here.
SLOT/CB: Will Redmond --- Finally healthy and ready to lock down the slot position formally, held by Jimmie Ward two years ago.
FS: Jimmie Ward; Marcus Cromartie --- Jimmie is finally moved to his more natural spot; plays lots of single-high S and Cromartie adds to ST.
SS: Jaquiski Tartt; Eric Reid --- This battle in the off season comes down to the wire with Tartt winning as the enforcer in this new defense (Kam Chancellor role). Reid proves to be a leader...on the bench...adds to ST.

NC...I know most are putting Armstead at DE and Buckner at DT but that seems terribly backwards to me. Armstead is now quick enough to contain the outside, but Buckner is capable. I guess it would depend on the LBs and how the scheme is run but I believe they will put Blair, Lynch or Brooks at LDE and Armstead at LDT. Then a new DT and Buckner at RDE. Right now they may play Buckner inside as they don't have a great DT prospect. Purcell or Davis? They may be much better in a 4/3 alignment but I doubt it...just not strong enough to be a starter in either scheme. Hope I wrong about that as it would eliminate one need!

Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
I don't think our TE corps is very good beyond VMac's playmaking abilities. I doubt Shanahan will be very enthused. There's really no one who's what you'd call a reliable target. Acquiring Jack Doyle would change that.

I really can't disagree with your analysis overall. 2017 will be huge in terms of upgrading the roster...loads of cap space and at least 11 picks in the draft. There are a number of players in both FA and the draft to put us on a solid road to recovery, IMHO.

Tight End is fine. This league is about QB and WRs. Patriots and other teams get to the dance with playmakers on the outside not playmaking tight ends.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Better place for this...with a little help from my friends in here...fire away!

I'll go right down the line on some wishful thinking but mostly, try to keep it realistic as well.

Notes: In the draft, since Garrett is gone and ShanaLynch aren't sold on Trubisky, we go with a minor trade-back with the Jets and stay inside the top 6 and pick up an extra 2nd this year (40th), next year's 2nd and more (1,000 points). I cover the top 5 picks. In free agency, since we won't be paying for a FQB this year, ShanaLynch make a couple larger splashes in free agency (Britt/Williams/Bouye) and add a number of second-tier free agent starters and resign several of our own who fit the Seattle defense and WCO well. 6 of the 18 are resigns. 3 are larger contracts (Britt/Williams/Bouye) but nothing remotely back-breaking. The other 9 signings are second-third tier contracts.

Draft = 5: XWR Mike Williams, LEO/RDE Taco Charlton, LG Forrest Lamp, QB Nathan Peterman & RB Wayne Gallman
(Free Agency = 18): QB's Brian Hoyer & Ryan Nassib, XWR's Kenny Britt & Rod Streater, YWR Jeremy Kerley, ZWR Ted Ginn Jr., RB DuJuan Harris, FB Patrick DiMarco, C Joe Hawley, RG Andrew Tiller, DE Andre Branch, LDT Brandon Williams, SAM Malcolm Smith, MLB's Sean Spence & Nick Bellore, WLB's Kevin Minter & Gerald Hodges and RCB A.J. Bouye

Offense --- 25
QB: (Brian Hoyer); (Ryan Nassib) & Nathan Peterman --- The Kaepernick era is finally over. No doubt, ShanaLynch will go hard for both Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo but it will probably be to no avail. Therefore, they go the safer "bridge" route where we are able to acquire Brian Hoyer & Ryan Nassib in free agency (both pocket passers familiar with the WCO) and draft the best pro-style QB in Nathan Peterman in the 3rd round; similar to Kirk Cousins in the 4th. Nassib could certainly beat out Hoyer too.
RB1: Carlos Hyde; Wayne Gallman --- Nice backup to Hyde here via the draft.
RB2: (DuJuan Harris) --- ShanaLynch resign Harris to play a similar role as Coleman in ATL.
FB: (Patrick DiMarco) --- Who better for Kyle's offense?
TE: Vance McDonald; Garrett Celek & Blake Bell --- ShanaLynch likes this group for now and wants to see what they can do in his WCO.
XWR: (Kenny Britt); Mike Williams & (Rod Streater) --- ShanaLynch go hard in free agency for wide receivers and get their men. Kenny Britt will play a prominent role in this offense as will Jeremy Kerley. They also resign Streater for depth. But the first pick of the ShanaLynch era goes to, Mike Williams. He'll learn all three WR positions and grow into a Julio Jones-like role for us.
YWR: Jeremy Kerley --- Kerley is a must resign and they lock him up to play a similar role to Taylor Gabriel.
ZWR: Torrey Smith; (Tedd Ginn Jr.) --- The signing of Ginn adds true depth and versatility and adds to our ST returning units and helps flips our WR core into a legit, diverse group. Kyle wanted speed and he got it.
LOT: Joe Staley; John Theus --- Legit.
LG: Forrest Lamp; Zane Beadles --- ShanaLynch draft Forrest Lamp with their 3rd pick who has played C, G, & T.
C: (Joe Hawley); Daniel Kilgore --- ShanaLynch go for a veteran C in Hawley like Kyle did in ATL with Alex Mack; he's be able to handle all the calls of his WCO which frees up the QB to think less.
RG: Joshua Garnett; (Andrew Tiller) --- ShanaLynch resign Tiller to push Garnett.
ROT: Trenton Brown --- ShanaLynch want to see the big cat in this system before anything else. With a FB, we can still run power when needed.

Defense --- 25
LDE: Arik Armstead; Aaron Lynch & (Andre Branch) --- Lynch is best on the left side and is excellent against the run and settles in there on many base downs in rotation with Armstead and ShanaLynch make a small splash in free agency with Andre Branch who can rush from both DE spots in our 4-3.
LDT: (Brandon Williams); Quinton Dial --- ShanaLynch sticks to their word on wanting to stop the run and gets the best NT in Brandon Williams in free agency.
RDT: DeForest Bucker --- It's on!
RDE/LEO: Taco Charlton; Ronald Blair & Eli Harold --- Time to get after that QB!
SAM: (Malcolm Smith); (Gerald Hodges) --- ShanaLynch bring in a familiar LB to this Seattle defense and Hodges is a nice resigning (4th best per PFF). There could be a real competition here.
MLB: Navarro Bowman; (Sean Spence) & (Nick Bellore) --- Here's to never having to see Bellore as a starter again (ST only). ShanaLynch add some much needed quality depth in Sean Spence.
WLB: (Kevin Minter); Ray-Ray Armstrong --- Nice young player in Minter and quality depth with Ray-Ray (ST). There could be a real competition here as well.
LCB: Rashard Robinson; Dontae Johnson --- It's all about jam-press now! The draft may add another long CB with better speed/technique than DJ.
RCB: (A.J. Bouye); Keith Reaser --- ShanaLynch make the biggest $plash in free agency here.
SLOT/CB: Will Redmond --- Finally healthy and ready to lock down the slot position formally, held by Jimmie Ward two years ago.
FS: Jimmie Ward; Marcus Cromartie --- Jimmie is finally moved to his more natural spot; plays lots of single-high S and Cromartie adds to ST.
SS: Jaquiski Tartt; Eric Reid --- This battle in the off season comes down to the wire with Tartt winning as the enforcer in this new defense (Kam Chancellor role). Reid proves to be a leader...on the bench...adds to ST.

Very nice, again.

QB- I'm thinking Cutler dude has talent still. I like your picks also have to consider D. Webb.
WR- Have to resign Kerley and I have also liked Britt (big receiver)
DT- Have to sign a stud NT; it's a must
LEO- Have to sign Ingram; it's a must
LB- Have to draft some young, fast, hungry linebackers

Just adding and spending on a stud NT and a strong pass rusher will make the defense 10 times better. Have to stop the run and pressure the QB if you want to win in the NFL.

Originally posted by Niner4ever:
Very nice, again.

QB- I'm thinking Cutler dude has talent still. I like your picks also have to consider D. Webb.
WR- Have to resign Kerley and I have also liked Britt (big receiver)
DT- Have to sign a stud NT; it's a must
LEO- Have to sign Ingram; it's a must
LB- Have to draft some young, fast, hungry linebackers

Just adding and spending on a stud NT and a strong pass rusher will make the defense 10 times better. Have to stop the run and pressure the QB if you want to win in the NFL.

For sure...couldn't agree more!

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
NC...I know most are putting Armstead at DE and Buckner at DT but that seems terribly backwards to me. Armstead is now quick enough to contain the outside, but Buckner is capable. I guess it would depend on the LBs and how the scheme is run but I believe they will put Blair, Lynch or Brooks at LDE and Armstead at LDT. Then a new DT and Buckner at RDE. Right now they may play Buckner inside as they don't have a great DT prospect. Purcell or Davis? They may be much better in a 4/3 alignment but I doubt it...just not strong enough to be a starter in either scheme. Hope I wrong about that as it would eliminate one need!

I hear you. Per MB he notes the following:

Defensive front
Left defensive end. This player lines up opposite the "Leo" and typically has been a bigger player who can stop the run.

Left Defensive tackle/nose tackle. Even though the Seahawks use a base 4-3, they still have a role for someone who lines up over the opposition's center. This typically has been a shorter, stubbier player in Seattle's system (think: Brandon Mebane). The best recent 49er for this position is Ian Williams, but he was released in October and his NFL future is very much up in the area due to recent injuries. The team's top nose tackle from last year, Glenn Dorsey, is a pending free agent. Quinton Dial is an option, but at 6-5, he's not a prototypical nose tackle, especially in this particular scheme.

Right defensive tackle. This position should be the team's top pass-rushing interior lineman. The 49ers will want to have Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner on the field, and they must figure out which is best for this spot vs. left defensive end. The guess here is that Buckner would play this position with Armstead at defensive end.

"Leo" right defensive end. This is the marquee position along the defensive front. The position essentially is the same as the "elephant" defensive end the 49ers employed in their heyday -- Charles Haley, Chris Doleman, etc. (It's no coincidence that Carroll was San Francisco's defensive coordinator in 1995-96). The Leo is the team's best pass rusher and most athletic edge rusher. He plays on the weak side (non-tight end side) of the defense and usually goes against the opponent's left tackle. Chris Clemons and Cliff Avril have played this role for the Seahawks in the past. For the 49ers? Ahmad Brooks or Aaron Lynch probably fit best. A high-round rookie draft pick, say Texas A&M's Myles Garrett or Alabama's Tim Williams, would be far more ideal.

So it looks like: AA - Big Body - Buckner - Best Edge Rusher

But obviously, there could be a number of combinations in the works here esp. when you add in players like Lynch, Brooks, Harold, Blair, Jones, etc. Seattle typically lines their DE's out wide too to help in funneling the runs back inside and give them more room to beat their T's. The idea of Buckner at LDE on base downs and AA on pass rush downs was just an idea. Lynch is more natural on the left side and too fat for a LEO rusher (and not quick enough; I disagree with MB here).

http://www.espn.com/blog/atlanta-falcons/post/_/id/26020/jacob-tamme-would-love-to-stay-with-falcons-but-49ers-a-possibility