What bet would you take?

My money is on option 2.

Only way we another super bowl is if the Yorks sell the team to someone who cares.

Option one.

15 years to do it at 1000-1.

I'd take that.

Option 1. I'm an optimist.

I doubt we make the playoffs in the next 15 years.

Option 2 easily. Both are obviously good bets, so I'd take both of them if that's an option.

There are a lot of teams with better odds than the 49ers of winning the Super Bowl in the next 13-14 years.

If you think about it, there will likely be some teams that win multiple championships, so we're looking at maybe 9 or 10 teams that will win over that span. The 49ers also have almost no shot at winning this year or next year because the roster isn't talented right now. If we were an average team, I'd still like option 2, but we're one of the worst teams in the league right now with a terrible owner. The only way option 1 makes sense is if you're already a playoff team or you have a franchise QB.

2030 is an awfully, awfully long time away. We've seen teams like the 1998-1999 St. Louis Rams, 2001-2003 Carolina Panthers, our very own 1979-1981 San Francisco 49ers, all go from complete garbage (four wins maximum, in some cases one or two wins) to Super Bowl teams (and in some cases, Super Bowl CHAMPIONS) in two seasons or less, just to name a few. Heck, in 2011, the Panthers and the Broncos both had the first two overall picks in the draft. Which two teams played in the last Super Bowl less than five years later?

I'm not saying we're guaranteed to win a championship by then. Super Bowls are extremely, extremely difficult to win. But 14 years is practically a life time in the NFL. We went from below mediocre in 2010, to a SB contender in 2011-2013, back to trash in 2015. That should be enough proof for you all to realize that a LOT can change in just two seasons. A LOT. For the better or for the worse. I get you're all pissed with York, as am I. I get that the mood here after back-to-back blowouts in Carolina and Seattle is that we will forever suck. I get that. And of course, York's track record of being able to hang on to a solid HC long-term wise hasn't been great after both Mooch and recently Harbaugh. But guess what? It's still the NFL. Easily the most parity of any sports league. I can't really make a bet as to whether or not we will win a championship. But I do feel there will be a period ~5 years from now where we will be a good team again, possibly a deep playoff team, we'll all be jumping for joy and happy again and everyone here will say we're the greatest franchise ever, then in ~2025 we'll suck again and you'll all think we're going to suck forever, rinse and repeat. Pure knee-jerk at its finest.

Nothing lasts forever in the NFL. Nothing. That's the magic of sports. You live in the now and even if the now feels like it always has been and always will be, that's just not the case.

And I don't live in fairytale land. I'm just realistically telling it like it is. Fairy tale land would be guaranteeing a championship or saying we'll win another five SB's. I'm saying it's more likely than not that we'll be good again at at least one point before 2030. It's just a matter of HOW good we'll be and for how long we'll be good.

Statistically speaking option 2 is a better bet, assuming the 49ers have an average NFL experience over the next 14 years.

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
2030 is an awfully, awfully long time away. We've seen teams like the 1998-1999 St. Louis Rams, 2001-2003 Carolina Panthers, our very own 1979-1981 San Francisco 49ers, all go from complete garbage (four wins maximum, in some cases one or two wins) to Super Bowl teams (and in some cases, Super Bowl CHAMPIONS) in two seasons or less, just to name a few. Heck, in 2011, the Panthers and the Broncos both had the first two overall picks in the draft. Which two teams played in the last Super Bowl less than five years later?

I'm not saying we're guaranteed to win a championship by then. Super Bowls are extremely, extremely difficult to win. But 14 years is practically a life time in the NFL. We went from below mediocre in 2010, to a SB contender in 2011-2013, back to trash in 2015. That should be enough proof for you all to realize that a LOT can change in just two seasons. A LOT. For the better or for the worse. I get you're all pissed with York, as am I. I get that the mood here after back-to-back blowouts in Carolina and Seattle is that we will forever suck. I get that. And of course, York's track record of being able to hang on to a solid HC long-term wise hasn't been great after both Mooch and recently Harbaugh. But guess what? It's still the NFL. Easily the most parity of any sports league. I can't really make a bet as to whether or not we will win a championship. But I do feel there will be a period ~5 years from now where we will be a good team again, possibly a deep playoff team, we'll all be jumping for joy and happy again and everyone here will say we're the greatest franchise ever, then in ~2025 we'll suck again and you'll all think we're going to suck forever, rinse and repeat. Pure knee-jerk at its finest.

Nothing lasts forever in the NFL. Nothing. That's the magic of sports. You live in the now and even if the now feels like it always has been and always will be, that's just not the case.

And I don't live in fairytale land. I'm just realistically telling it like it is. Fairy tale land would be guaranteeing a championship or saying we'll win another five SB's. I'm saying it's more likely than not that we'll be good again at at least one point before 2030. It's just a matter of HOW good we'll be and for how long we'll be good.

If you assume that the every team in the league will have a 1/32 chance of winning the Super Bowl each year over the next 14 years (which is a much better chance than the 49ers actually have), our odds of winning at least one Super Bowl are only 36%. (1-1/32)^14=36%. Our odds this year are quoted at 400-1 and probably won't be 31-1 in the near future.

There may be one or two teams that are really bad now which are competing for rings 5 years from now, but there's no reason that has to be the 49ers. We'll probably make the playoffs again by 2030, but our odds of winning the Super Bowl by then are not good.

Our betting odds would have to be closer to 26-1 for us to have the equivalent of a 1/32 shot at winning. I added up the probabilities for each team based on the future odds listed in the link below and came up with 116.6%. Only 11 teams have better than a 1/32 chance at winning once you divide by 1.166. We'll be lucky if we're one of the best 11 teams 3 years from now.

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_futures_odds_super_bowl_li.shtml

Well we're at 20 years since our last and I don't trust this current ownership groups interest in actually winning it all so I take option 2. Now if they Yorks somehow sell in the next 5 years I wouldn't.

We wont win more than 4 games from here on out

I'm going for the 3rd option - NO1CURR

I'll bet Steelers, Broncos and Pats win # 7 before we get another chance at 6

Good THREAD ! Must be positive. Faithful.YESSSSS !!!!! Looks bad now. 49ers for life. Quest for 6th. Yes !

Option 3 THIS STUPID THREAD!