10 wins

With Mojave here, eastcoast. Incredibly bad psychologically for any team to lose, esp 3-13, 5Ws, or whatever. It is a big deal for these professionals to win, and if they make it 1 or 2, 3 or 4more Ws than last yr, that builds team psychological strength in the players. If they were to tank, say to get better draft position, that would psychologically debilitating for the players . NONE of them want that. So if you want what is good for the players, pull for us to win at all costs. And yeah, we then get a lesser pick. But that is the price for getting the team to a winner or SB frame of reference.

Originally posted by mojave45:

I don't see how we get to more wins than we had last year. The ball may bounce "better" for us, we may get a call or two come our way that we didn't last year... But our schedule is brutal. Our Division rivals didn't exactly get worse off over the off season and may have improved. We upgraded our OL on paper but it hasn't been proven yet, and it always takes a while for a completely revamped OL to come together and click. Kelly is an improvement, but the belief that he is going to do here what he did in year one in Philly is just wishful thinking at thus point. In Philly I don't believe he had wholesale changes to OL, DL, WR, and DB positions going into his first year, it was more a case where it was similar to what Harbaugh ran into in year one here, where he had some good talent, that had played together previously, but just been under coached. Here he will be developing a lot of new talent in year one, with a very small core of proven talent that has significant time on the fiel, and not a lot playing together as a unit. They may be vets but underplayed vets in many cases. We have a lot of "potentially " good talent, but not much in the way of proven talent at many positions. It should be a year of improvement over all, but we still have warmed over dog turds behind center, unless one or the other of our QB's suddenly has a turn around...

My expectations are that we improve, but not necessarily do it in the W-L record.

Mojave, we pretty much agree on everything, and I have posted such previously. My goal stated also, is that we improve, regardless of W/L record. I do THINK, however, that with a new innovative OC /HC that this team scores points this yr, and I don't care if mandrake the magician is QB or not. With chip it doesn't seem to matter. He'll do well with whoever is back there. We lost a number of games last yr that we held to 15-18 pts last yr. Not early but say a quarter of season in, I expect his O to crank out more of those points. Plus, obviously chip goes into a game wiht a game plan, scheduled plays, and a damn good idea of what he is facing and what he can/can't do. On O we score more points this yr. I think in the 20-21 pt range.

On D, I think we jsut set the table for a helluva front 3 or 4, and the question can our OLBs/ILBs make use of this. Don't know here, but hope so. Whatever we got a lot better. CBs? For me, that is a breath holder until I actually see them on field. I believe chip will be intimately involved in the D, and frankly am not that worried about JoN, as I expect chip to be part of the D. And I really like that. He isn't BW, but same involvement on both O and D. So I am down for 6 Ws, but laid out a way to get to 10 earlier in thread....just a way, not predicting it will happen. As for 6 Ws, I just know we are better everywhere, a LOT better at OC/HC. Hence 6Ws is a minimum. I also know our O will work this yr....last 2 1/2 yrs it hasn't.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

With Mojave here, eastcoast. Incredibly bad psychologically for any team to lose, esp 3-13, 5Ws, or whatever. It is a big deal for these professionals to win, and if they make it 1 or 2, 3 or 4more Ws than last yr, that builds team psychological strength in the players. If they were to tank, say to get better draft position, that would psychologically debilitating for the players . NONE of them want that. So if you want what is good for the players, pull for us to win at all costs. And yeah, we then get a lesser pick. But that is the price for getting the team to a winner or SB frame of reference.

You're arguing against a straw man. Not once did I say the players or coaching staff should tank (try to lose). I'm rooting for the outcome not the intent.

The majority of this roster will turn over by the time we make it to a Super Bowl (if we're lucky and make it in the next 10 years). If a coach can't spin a 3-13 or 4-12 season with a much better +/- as an improvement and positive sign for the future then he's not a very good coach or the team or the players have fragile physches.

If this team was as talented as some fans seem to think it was, I'd be rooting for wins to build confidence and reinforce work ethics. The reality is that most of our players will likely be replaced by the time we make the playoffs because they aren't very good. If we come away with some signs of improvement and a franchise QB with the #1 pick of the draft, that sets us up for long term success. Getting some feel good wins due to lucky bounces/bad calls causing us to miss out on a franchise QB does not.

The way to think about it is you have a different model in mind when it comes to building team success (you place a higher emphasis on team physche and I place a higher emphasis on bringing in talent). I don't share the belief that success necessarily leads to more success - teams (like the Patriots) are successful for long periods of time because they have stable front offices and coaching staffs who do their job well and bring in talent and develop it. It also helps when they find a franchise QB that can carry them for 15 years. You need to find players who work hard and are leaders in the locker room (there are guys like this on winning and losing teams). It has nothing or very little to do with a "winning culture".

We also share very different assumptions to the model on how good the current players are or can be, how cheap wins would affect their physche, how far off we are from making the playoffs or Super Bowl, and how good some of the 2017 draft prospects are (I'm really high on Watson and Garrett). From your frame of reference, you're being rational and from my frame of reference, I'm being rational.

I'm not questioning other people's fanhood for sharing different beliefs about the team or NFL than me though.

And leaving wins off the table as a result of bad luck makes it easier to exceed our win-loss record next year which will motivate players in the future.

No East, I only place drafting based on talent. Psych stuff just kind of happens, and I take last yr as an example. HC that should never have been, not a strong draft, and then when it turns out all tomsul can do is stand on the sidline with his mouth open...and has no game plan, no change of plan at halftime, no observable helping his DC nor OC ....then you get a team that is psyched out...not up. It cuts two ways. Ls pile on Ls, and pretty soon the team goes into game looking to lose. No hope, despair...you get a team that is beaten before the first ball is snapped. Likewise you go out of the gate like the Warriors, and that builds the psyche of the team positively. We haven't seen that around here in 2+ yrs. That is my only connection with getting the team psyched....i.e., a well oiled , smoothly functioning team, that is winning is going to feel tlke every game is theirs before the game starts.

It reinforces both ways...positively and negatively. You don't draft on basis of psychology, just talent. Bet this. From a psychological standpoint, you know these guys are going to go out there and try and prove this is not just a 5 W team. And if they do not feel that way, know for sure chip will rapidly change their attitudes.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

No East, I only place drafting based on talent. Psych stuff just kind of happens, and I take last yr as an example. HC that should never have been, not a strong draft, and then when it turns out all tomsul can do is stand on the sidline with his mouth open...and has no game plan, no change of plan at halftime, no observable helping his DC nor OC ....then you get a team that is psyched out...not up. It cuts two ways. Ls pile on Ls, and pretty soon the team goes into game looking to lose. No hope, despair...you get a team that is beaten before the first ball is snapped. Likewise you go out of the gate like the Warriors, and that builds the psyche of the team positively. We haven't seen that around here in 2+ yrs. That is my only connection with getting the team psyched....i.e., a well oiled , smoothly functioning team, that is winning is going to feel tlke every game is theirs before the game starts.

It reinforces both ways...positively and negatively. You don't draft on basis of psychology, just talent. Bet this. From a psychological standpoint, you know these guys are going to go out there and try and prove this is not just a 5 W team. And if they do not feel that way, know for sure chip will rapidly change their attitudes.