How many wins next year for Kelly's first season to be considered successful?

Originally posted by RabidNiner:
Playing a last place schedule with a coach who isn't completely brain dead? 9 wins, at least

I didn't take this into consideration. We may play 4th place teams in the NFC, but those 4th place teams are better than us. We are still in the NFC West. We also play the AFC East next season. New England? Buffalo? New York? Where will these 9 wins come from?

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NorthBay49er:

8 Wins

8-8 would be horrible!

If we did all of this to win 3 more games than Tomsula! That would be a total failure!

We would need to go 4-2 in the division instead of 1-5 to be 8-8

If he decides to go with Kap at QB, I'd figure that would go for half the season before he is benched, so 2 wins there. Gabbert should be good for another 3-4 for the remainder of the season, so I say 6 wins. Hey, better than 5!

I honestly don't care after last season. I just want to see innovation and progress.

Not a season full of cherry picked projected stats on underwhelming players from the forum. Give the people something to actually be excited about.

8-8 is a decent start.

If we only have 5 or 6 wins, but are competitive and building on something, then I would be okay with that. like some have said though, I believe there will be wayyyyyy too many personnel changes to really make any sort of accurate assessment.

I mean, we may change
-defensive scheme (again)
-QB - this is a big one
-offensive philosophy

WE have a lot of cap space, and I imagine we re-shuffle our OL quite a bit, so I would say it is way too early to even give any sort of remote answer. I am optimistic though and think we could very easily end the season with 10 wins.

For me, 8 wins is par. For the praise he's received from some of his peers, Kelly should be able to produce 3 more wins than Tomsula without even breaking a sweat.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NorthBay49er:
8 Wins

8-8 would be horrible!

If we did all of this to win 3 more games than Tomsula! That would be a total failure!

To be fair, we were fortunate to even win 5 games with Tomsula. Four of our wins were toss ups.

Exactly. The 2015 49ers were a 3-13 type of team in my eyes. Going 8-8 would, competitive in each game, and maybe pulling off a true upset would be a successful season in my book. Expecting 10+ wins is ridiculous.

Completely agree with you two. We were extremely lucky to have 5 wins (unlucky because it screwed our draft position). This was a 3-13 team. If we go 5-11 but show a major improvement in +/- and don't get blown out, especially against bad teams, that would be a sign of improvement. I'd be thrilled with 6-10 if we play more like a 7-9 team and get a little unlucky this time around and we're the team missing field goals to blow games.

Originally posted by ronniefreakinlott42:

If he decides to go with Kap at QB, I'd figure that would go for half the season before he is benched, so 2 wins there. Gabbert should be good for another 3-4 for the remainder of the season, so I say 6 wins. Hey, better than 5!

The only thing I disagree with is that Kelly benches Kaepernick quicker.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

what if we go 0-16 but lose 40+ point shootouts by 1 pt ?

Then I hope the d coordinator is fired after week 3

I would be satisfied with 8-8. Following year and on I am looking at wildcard and playoff contention to be labeled successful.

I think we will win 10+

Won't be able to assess that until we see how our talent stacks up next year. Average talant + good coach = 10 wins.

just make the playoffs

It's not so much the wins but the trajectory. This season we had 5 wins but were possibly the worst 5-11 team ever. We were 2nd worst in point differential at -149, only 5 better than Cleveland. Only one other team was even in triple digits. For other examples, Washington and Houston were clearly not 9-7 caliber teams. They benefited playing in horrible divisions. We play in an extremely tough division, especially if the Rams start playing at near their talent level. Next year we could be 6-10 but the equivalent of an 8-8 team and playing even better at the end of the season.

Also, expectations will depend a lot on what Baalke gives Kelly to work with, especially at QB. Kelly can't really be blamed if Kaep or Gabbert don't work out unless he himself becomes a big believer in either of them and then fails to develop them.