How many wins next year for Kelly's first season to be considered successful?

If Carlos Hyde is healthy and the online plays well we can win 9 games

I want to see what Jed voted...

Originally posted by 16to87:

19 according to some here

Sounds fair to me.
19 wins and win the next 3 Super Bowls, and maybe Kelly can keep his job....assuming they do it with class.

The question what if Chip Kelly's system doesn't work out? Say we hover under.500 in the coming seasons, how long do you think the 9ers will and should keep him for?

Anything less than 8 wins is UNACCEPTABLE.

8 WINS GETS A PASS.

9 WINS WOULD BE GOOD.

10+ WINS / PLAYOFFS WOULD BE SUCCESSFUL.

SUPERBOWL CHAMPS would be a 1-32 shot but the ultimate GOAL.

I hope i'm not raising the bar to high Chip!!! Just remember what Harbaugh did....

YEAR 1 14-4 (NFC CHAMPIONSHIP)
YEAR 2 13-5-1 (SUPERBOWL BERTH)
YEAR 3 14-5 (NFC CHAMPIONSHIP)
YEAR 4 8-8

TOTAL - 49-22-1 68% WIN PERC.

Originally posted by 49ersnum1:
Anything less than 8 wins is UNACCEPTABLE.

8 WINS GETS A PASS.

9 WINS WOULD BE GOOD.

10+ WINS / PLAYOFFS WOULD BE SUCCESSFUL.

SUPERBOWL CHAMPS would be a 1-32 shot but the ultimate GOAL.

you think kelly and the niners could get 10 wins in this division when he had trouble in the nfc east?

We will get 11 wins next year.

Originally posted by harryj:

Originally posted by 49ersnum1:
Anything less than 8 wins is UNACCEPTABLE.

8 WINS GETS A PASS.

9 WINS WOULD BE GOOD.

10+ WINS / PLAYOFFS WOULD BE SUCCESSFUL.

SUPERBOWL CHAMPS would be a 1-32 shot but the ultimate GOAL.

you think kelly and the niners could get 10 wins in this division when he had trouble in the nfc east?

It's never going to happen. The question is will 2 years be enough if he can't get above .500? Or how much longer you think we will need to waste before we can him?

Willisfn4life had it exactly right. Show me the lineup and you then you can make a decision based on what we have. This question is asked for fun. So any answer goes. Now if you really want to figure a W/L record factor in these below. If we go into next yr with no FA starters, nor any draft starters, then we have the same team as last yr and i would say
4 wins.

Now if we get an extra first rd pick by keeping our first two picks in rd 1 and 2 but trade away all the others, and maybe a player (depending on how chip/kap scenario works out). then we would have a legit shot at 3 players all being starters. A starting OT(who could play OG), a starting DT and a starting OLB. In FA, an OG starter, an OC starter, a NT( Ian or Knightley), and if the FA salaries could be kept under 35-38 mil/yr, maybe ILB Trevathan. That is a big leap, 3 OL starters and 4, wiht an outside shot at 5 D starters. REmember we lost 6 or our starting front 7 and 2 OLs with 2 remaining, kilgore and boone that were useless. So we need 10 bona fide starters to replace the starters we lost. And that is a massive job....NC says 2 yrs, but if we could push it this yr and get 7 or 8 starters from draft and FA, then we would still be shy 3 starters from where we need to be, but would be in good shape to do something meaningful . Remember, this is a unique yr where we have not only a top 7 pick, but also 52 million in cap money, 40- 42 mil of which we can use.

A review of last 10 pages has the other caveats. We have ended the last two yrs with 16 and 15 guys on IR. So we HAVE to have a good break on health this yr.

As noted above, baalke has to have a quality draft, something he is not known for. His focus has been on quantity. This yr we need no projects, just 3 starters from draft...and not in 3 yrs, this yr. And if FA, again he has to come up with starters. We are 11 starters down. Getting 6 this yr, or even better 7, would make a huge difference in how we play. But make no mistake, without a starting OL and without a starting DL, we win 5 or less games this yr.

IF we play wiht no OL nor DL, then that means that baalke mistakenly took a Goff or lynch, etc. We cannot take a hi round QB this yr. Depend on chip looking at the top 2 dozen UDFA QBs and hoping he finds 2 or 3 he can work with. Odds wise, since chip is running an O not familiar to most of us, maybe he can get by with a talent but one who can learn. The alternative is gab or kap or both. But NO QB hi in draft this yr. That would torch our abiity to get the OL and DL we must have first.

"Build your lines first"...Viince Lombardi.

Schedule...yes this will make winning more games harder, but if we can get thru season, the post season games should be one helluva lot easier. If you have the talent, you learn more playing against guys better than you, so steel sharpens steel. We will end up a better team if we don't play Cleveland every week. ]

Don't want to be a crybaby, but we also need the pendulum to swing back and get us a couple breaks this yr. We are overdue.

That said, with 3 new OL starters, and 3 or 4 DL starters in front 7, we could make a legit run for 9 Ws. Without the above starters, we are no better than last yr and win 5.

It all boils down to one thing. Baalke. If he comes thru, then we bust ahead. If he doesn't , then we just bust.

I say 10+ wins mainly because we certainly have the talent, picks and cash to buy a championship like the Broncos did. Both Kap and Gabbert would be at least serviceable behind a good offensive line.

Baalke needs to load up on top OL men and pass rushers in the draft and FA. We don't need anything else.