Perception vs. Reality...

Sure. But I don't see the comparison to willis. I really don't. I think its obvious and not a point of discussion.

Best case scenario he turns into Zach Thomas 2.0.

Originally posted by Phil:
The deep ball stuff.

I think his accuracy has been inconsistent. We can say Moss and Walker helped in 2012 but its accuracy at issue here not opportunity.

http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/11/26/5145090/colin-kaepernicks-deep-ball-49ers

Above the writer theorizes that Kaps deep ball in 2012 was unsustainable. Or almost lucky. 2013 and 2014 the accuracy has declined each year. Not only completion % but accuracy as well.

He had this to say:

"In 2012, Colin managed a league-leading accuracy percentage on deep balls of 60%, and he only threw 1 pick in 33 attempts, for an INT rate of 3.0. Both his completion and INT rates are far superior to league averages, meaning we could expect heavy regression at some point."

So the question is, was 2012 the norm or an anomaly? Kap was ranked around 20th on deep ball accuracy in 2014. Open man, covered, speed or no speed the accuracy wasnt there.

On defense we're keeping Brooks around, if Justin Smith stays, the Dockett addition feels good. It boils down to Cox and Culliver. Losing Pat hurts but our defense did GREAT in 2014 without him. It still boils down to our offense.

Losing Gore was expected either in 2015 or 2016. It won't hurt as much if we bring in another vet to rotate with Hyde/Hunter. Losing Iupati hurts the run game and that's a big question mark but a better pass blocker might open up more opportunity in the passing game.

For me, the issue remains the offense and the main improvements needed revolve around O-line, Kap's pocket game and offensive schemes. It's a "prove it" year for our franchise QB. If he doesn't step up big time I can see him being shown the door for 2016. It's also an o-line and coaching issue.

I feel like the 2015 season could go either way. The draft will have an impact this year and Chryst has to prove himself as well. A lot of unknowns. Don't think all hope is lost...yet.

Its hard to be accurate when you're on your ass.

Originally posted by Marvin49:

1) Kaepernick - "Colin is incapable of throwing the deep ball, therefore signing Torrey Smith is a waste of money".

2) "The run game will suffer with the loss of Frank.

3) "With Patrick Willis retiring the defense is not going to be as good as it was before".

4) "Jed York has destroyed this team by firing Harbaugh".

Great post Marvin. Just read it...late to the party! One thing I like about this thread is the separation between pessimists and what I'll call realists (because I'm in this group--delusional if you're not ).

1) WRs, OL and RBs matter when evaluating the QB. When the niners run game worked Kaepernick seemed much better. Last year both took a tumble. Too little has been made of the OL troubles in securing a pocket for CK and Gore struggled in some games with his protection assignments (formerly one of his strengths)...perhaps due to trying to make up for the line, but mostly because the playcalling didn't use him often enough as a dump off so players didn't have to worry much about covering him early. I'm really looking forward to this year to see if the new coaches and players can turn this around.

2) Gore's greatest strength as a runner was tough, hardnose running and staying healthy. Injuries worry me with Hyde (style) and Hunter (history) so I hope they take one of those really solid RBs around the 3/4 rounds. Gore's blocking ability will be more difficult to replace than his running.
Edit: this matters less with CK than it would for Manning and other less mobile QBs. I see a nice fit on the Colts and am excited for Frank!

3) Had hoped Willis would bounce back to his former self but he can't, so a change is not the teams fault but just body breaking down. Both Bowman and Borland have quicker first step recognition skills than Willis but his strength, speed and textbook tackling will be missed. His leadership will be missed. But whining about a player retiring is just silly. I wish him well and will remember him as one of my favorite 9er LBs of all time.

4) York isn't my cup of tea but who cares? I've never fixated on an owner while rooting for a team. The only bay area owner I had a warm feeling toward was Franklin Meuli of the Warriors. He was a first rate character! Jed is better than his father so I'll take that as an upside and hope he matures into a great owner...when/if he inherits the team. As for his tiff with Harbaugh...the coach has had personality issues everywhere he's been and the tolerance clock started the day he was hired. Four years is not a horrible tenure for a coach. Take a look at all the coaches in the NFL--HC and assistants...they last two to three years on average. Only stable, winning coaches last longer. Stable is not a word I'd use for JH. Walsh was a paragon of stability compared to JH.
Edit: Walsh was hyper sensitive, Harbaugh hyper insensitive...big difference.

Marvin--I like your take that some are panicing due to unknowns. Are they the same ones who saw the sky falling when DBs were exchanged? No one seemed to panic when Goodwin left...but that was a bigger change than many we are looking at this year. Can't wait for the draft and training camp!

Well...I guess that Borland = or > than Willis convo is moot now....

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Well...I guess that Borland = or > than Willis convo is moot now....

What are your thoughts on our ILB problem?

Originally posted by 49erfaninAZ:

Originally posted by Marvin49:
Well...I guess that Borland = or > than Willis convo is moot now....

What are your thoughts on our ILB problem?

I'm scared to even say them just because if I do someone will retire.

Initial thoughts?

Perhaps Brooks moves inside and Lynch takes his spot on the outside? Brooks played ILB in college. I did see a tweet from him over the weekend that he was looking for a personal Chef...maybe trimming down to gain some quickness? Dunno. Totally speculating there.

I like Wilhoite. Solid player, but not a star where we have become accustomed to having stars. Certainly a position they'll address in the draft and thankfully Baalke has shown the ability to find some good ones there.

REALLY hope Navorro can come back something close to 100%. With him back to his old self things good be looking up...but I think banking on him being 100% is scary.