Perception vs. Reality...

So I again made the mistake of getting charged up listening to talk radio this morning (gotta stop doing that)..

It was on 95.7 the game. One of the hosts was talking about how from a talent perspective the team may not be as bad off as most let on while one of the other hosts was IMO spewing nonsense. It got me thinking about everything that's happened in the last few months.

Let me start off by saying right off the bat that this isn'[t intended to be a "feel good" post. The Niners are talking some SIGNIFICANT losses this year and they are going to feel it...particularly in the locker room. I don't want to undersell that...but I also want to be clear that IMO it isn't anywhere near as grim as many are letting on.

I guess the best way I can explain it is that we have simply replaced known quantities with unknown quantities. That doesn't mean those unknown quantities will be good or bad and it doesn't mean that those known quantities would ever be again what our perceptions of them are. If that doesn't make sense, let me elaborate.


1) Kaepernick - "Colin is incapable of throwing the deep ball, therefore signing Torrey Smith is a waste of money". This one cracks me up. Whats worse is that like one person said it in a blog somewhere and now people take it as fact and use it in conversation as a foregone conclusion.

Amazes me that people never look at anything more deeply that what they are told to believe.

First off, in 2012, Kap averaged 8.3 yards per attempt with a 62.4% comp%. He was the MOST ACCURATE QB IN THE NFL ON PASSES OVER 20 YARDS. He was better than Aaron Rodgers on such passes. Seriously.

So....what changed? PERSONNEL. In 2012 they ran a TON of play action off a STRONG running game and had Randy Moss, Delanie Walker, and Vernon Davis ALL capable of stretching the defense and in particular in Moss's case force the safety to account for him (mostly on reputation alone).

In 2013, Moss and Walker were gone (as was Crab for most of the year) but Kaps average per attempt was still 7.7 because he had Vernon running deep routes.

In 2014 his average per attempt dropped all the way to 7.0 as the team had ZERO deep threats. Al the receivers were possession receivers. Vernon was a shadow of himself.

This ain't rocket science. If you don't have a deep threat you are going to throw less deep passes and complete less when you try. This is why the statement above is so ludicrous. They got a deep threat. Lets see how things look THIS year.


2) "The run game will suffer with the loss of Frank". Look, I LOVE Frank Gore. He's my favorite Niner of all time. I think he'll be a good player in Indy...but can we all stop pretending that Frank is the same guy he was 4 or 5 years ago? Baalke has know this was going for some time. They've taken RBs in 6 consecutive drafts waiting for this day.

Hunter is a good player if healthy. The sky is the limit with Hyde...he just needs a chance. I even like the prospect of a Reggie Bush for small $$$ as a compliment.

They are an unknown though. People make the mistake of thinking that unknown equals bad. It isn't. In 2004 there were a lot of people on this board who wanted the Niners to lose the so called "Reggie Bush Bowl". The reason was that we wanted the opportunity to take the guy who looked like the second coming of Gayle Sayers. Understand...Frank Gore was ALREADY ON THE ROSTER at the time having just completed his rookie year. Bush was supposedly the known and Gore the unknown.

What happened? Frank ran for 1695 yards. The 49ers won that game so fell in the draft and drafted some TE out of Maryland named Vernon Davis. Reggie Bush (while being a good player) never really panned out as expected and is looking for his 4th NFL team.

I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I know for sure that Hyde will be a great back...but the unknown ain't always bad. It's simply unknown...and quite frankly a bit exciting.


3) "With Patrick Willis retiring the defense is not going to be as good as it was before". This one...I can't really say and again depends o the unknown. Pat is another great player and I wanted him back in the worst way, but he's been slowed down by those feet for a few years now. I don't want to sell that the Niners are better without him because I wanted and still want him back, but the Pat we all know and love isn't the same guiy that's been on the field lately and probably not the same Pat that would have been on the field moving forward.

The is a classic perception vs. reality situation. Is Chris Borland better than Pat in their respective primes? No. Not close. Is Chris better than Pat right now? Possibly....and this from a guy that would much rather Pat held than spot for 4 or 5 more years. I was steadfast against trading or releasing him because of the leadership he brought to the team...and because Borland is still that unknown quantity I spoke about before. Can Borland continue to play like he did? Will he be able to stay healthy at that size? Will he lack of speed get exposed? Will he be able to tackle Marshawn better than he showed this year?


4) "Jed York has destroyed this team by firing Harbaugh". I think a lot of people have a really short memory. So many people seem to have been blindsided by it. The hiring of Tomsula? It was ALWAYS a possibility. York has ALWAYS spoken highly of Tomsula. Even when Harbaugh was being introduced as coach York spoke highly of Tomsula and said that he hoped Harbaugh saw in Tomsula what he did and was willing to keep him.

I really don't have the first clue if Tomsula will be a great HC. I really don't. I am NOT however ASSUMING he will fail just because his last name isn't Shanahan, Gase, or anyone else. The players know the guy. The players LOVE the guy. Dockett and Hayne signed in SF BECAUSE of the guy. I think he deserves a chance.



The bottom line to me here is that this is when we find out how good Baalke really is. All of those red-shirted players will get a chance. All of those player patiently waiting their turn will have a shot to play and see if they are as good as we hope. This roster turnover was going to happen eventually. As many of you are so fond of pointing out, I spend a lot of time on a Seattle Seahawks board. One of the biggest digs they have against the Niners is that they are old.

Well...not so much anymore. Now its time for the young guys to shine. Maybe they will and maybe they won't. Should be fun to find out.

Great Read! i agree with everything you have stated there.


and i was talking to a fellow Niner fan yesterday, as to saying i don't think we'll be as bad as everyone thinks we're going to be.

Not saying we're going to win the division, but i think we'll still be pretty good. We got to remember we were the most injured team last season.

But lets look at this roster right now. Kap, we can only hope has a bounce back year, hopefully this training with Warner helps. Running back's, i think as long as we have a solid Line, i think either Hunter or Hyde will do fine, i think our Run game will be great with the young guys in there.

Wide Receivers, we got Boldin, we know what he can do, but we all know he's gotta be hitting a slump soon. Torrey Smith great addition, for once we a legitimate deep threat, something we haven't had IMO since T.O., i would have loved to see Stevie stay, but we got young guys on the team like Ellington, who knows about Patton.


Tight Ends, i just Vernon can be himself again, we need it, but let's not forget about Mcdonald, and Carrier.


My most worry i have is with our OL, with Iupati gone, and just looking about our options, we can do a lot of rearranging, i just wonder what our coaches are thinking on this. because we have Kilgore and Marcus who are going to fight for that Center position, but Kilgore can also play Guard, but we also have Thomas and Looney. I

I'm still wondering if they plan on moving Anthony Davis or Staley to opposite positions or not. this is a big question. but we need them to be solid to have any success.


This is just Offense.

Defensively,

Let's look at the DL, Dockett excited to see him play, but we also got Tony J E, Carradine, i'm sure we'll draft as well.

But i also we got one more year with the Cowboy. the NT position were solid as long either Dorsey or Ian, or Dial stay healthy.

LineBackers, still a solid core, we got Aldon, and Aaron Lynch at the OLB, but we also got brooks staying now, as well as the young guy Thomas i believe.

inside linebackers will be the big ?, Does Bowman bounce back, Does Borland get better, will wilhoite start againt this year.

DB's, well we've heard nothing about Cox or Cully coming back, so my wonder is our 1st pick going to be CB? does Jimmy Ward get another chance at corner?

Personally i'm a big fan of Doug Johnson with Tramaine Brock. but i'd like some insurance there with Cully back.

Safety's i think its one of our few solid spots we don't have to question as long as Eric Reid can stay concussion free.

Everything is a rush to judgement nowadays. It was just 3 years ago we where the most talented team in the west and would rule the division for at least a half a decade. But then s**t happens, Seattle hits on a gnome-like qb in the third and a bunch of unheralded picks. Until we actually know what we have in our redshirt guys, it's all just a rush to judgement.

Torrey smith excites me the most, because it the first legit speed guy we've had since Antonio bryant in 2006. It can't be understated what a legit spd guy does to a defense. It contorts the coverage and opens up every other level and that's just in the pass game. This same contortion Carries over to the run game including the qb run game.

There's a lot of questions to be answered and the uncertainty of it all makes me think the team is just as likely to go 5-11 than they are to go 11-5. For now, I'll keep an open mind and hope for the best. There are enough reasons to think the team can have a winning season, so I'll just hope for that. No point in going doom and gloom, in March, unless you want to prepare yourself emotionally for the worst, which is an understandable mindset.

Eh sort of a delusional thread...

1) Deep ball... intermediate ball... short ball... fade... post... it all doesn't matter if your quarterback struggles to read defenses and locks on to targets without going to his progressions. Colin's success as a thrower relies on set streak routes where he anticipates a single target being open based on formation vs what the defense is initially showing. He shows no ability to improvise as a thrower when his first option isn't available. Who knows, maybe the new coaching can be a big boost for him in this regard but he is a one trick pony in the passing game and was thoroughly exposed because of it. Deep balls are the least of your concern.

2) I kind of agree with you here... but I hate to break it to you, the running struggled WITH Frank Gore. I thought Hyde was going to be better than he showed last season and who knows, he could be better in his sophomore campaign. But... defending the 49ers offense is simple when the opposing defense can stack the box when they don't respect the ability of your QB to read defenses. The 49ers used to rely on a complex zone running attack that worked until opposing defenses key'd in on its tendencies. Combine the predictability of the running attack, likely suspension of Bruce Miller, and loss of Mike Iupati and it's tough to see how the running attack could get better. However I do think this coaching staff is better offensively scheme wise than the previous regime.

3) Boy... who knows. You lost your best corner in Perrish Cox. You lost your best lineback in Patrick Willis. (probably) You lost you best D-lineman in Justin Smith. Who really knows about Boreland. He had some good games and he had some not so good games. You can't bank on him to be a 5 time all pro and 8 time pro bowler and that is truly what you are giving up with the loss of Willis. Many say Aldon Smith is purely a product of Justin Smith's abilities on the left side of the line so it's going to be interesting to see if he is as effective with Justin Smith gone. The 49ers literally have no corners of note... as I mentioned Cox was the best corner for the Niners last year and thats kind of scary. Better hope that Marcus Peters or Trae Waynes is there in the first. Tank Carradine was a surprise last season and played well so I guess it's going to be fun to see what he does as a full time starter. Also, as I said that this new coaching staff could be a plus in offensive production... there is no way this coaching staff is better than Harbaughs from a defensive perspective.

4) I sort of agree with you here. Harbaugh didn't really draft or sign a lot of the main talent that lead to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl runs. York also couldn't really control the players who got hurt or retired so that's not really his fault. I think the way he handled the situation with Harbaugh is more of a black eye than the fact that he fired Harbaugh. That coupled with the loss and apparent angst of some key players only added to that stigma.

Originally posted by BandWagon:

Eh sort of a delusional thread...

1) Deep ball... intermediate ball... short ball... fade... post... it all doesn't matter if your quarterback struggles to read defenses and locks on to targets without going to his progressions. Colin's success as a thrower relies on set streak routes where he anticipates a single target being open based on formation vs what the defense is initially showing. He shows no ability to improve as a thrower when his first option isn't available. Who knows, maybe the new coaching can be a big boost for him in this regard but he is a one trick pony in the passing game and was thoroughly exposed because of it. Deep balls are the least of your concern.

2) I kind of agree with you here... but I hate to break it to you, the running struggled WITH Frank Gore. I thought Hyde was going to be better than he showed last season and who knows, he could be better in his sophomore campaign. But... defending the 49ers offense is simple when the opposing defense can stack the box when they don't respect the ability of your QB to read defenses. The 49ers used to relied on a complex zone running attack that worked until opposing defenses key'd in on its tendencies. Combine the predictability of the running attack, likely suspension of Bruce Miller, and loss of Mike Iupati and it's tough to see how the running attack could get better. However I do think this coaching staff is better offensively scheme wise than the previous regime.

3) Boy... who knows. You lost your best corner in Perrish Cox. You lost your best lineback in Patrick Willis. (probably) You lost you best D-lineman in Justin Smith. Who really knows about Boreland. He had some good games and he had some not so good games. You can't bank on him to be a 5 time all pro and 8 time pro bowler and that is truly what you are giving up with the loss of Willis. Many say Aldon Smith is purely a product of Justin Smith's abilities on the left side of the line so it's going to be interesting to see if he is as effective with Justin Smith gone. The 49ers literally have no corners of note... as I mentioned Cox was the best corner for the Niners last year and thats kind of scary. Better hope that Marcus Peters or Trae Waynes is there in the first. Tank Carradine was a surprise last season and played well so I guess it's going to be fun to see what he does as a full time starter. Also, as I said that this new coaching staff could be a plus in offensive production... there is no way this coaching staff is better than Harbaughs from a defensive perspective.

4) I sort of agree with you here. Harbaugh didn't really draft or sign a lot of the main talent that lead to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl runs. York also couldn't really control the players who got hurt or retired so that's not really his fault. I think the way he handled the situation with Harbaugh is more of a black eye than the fact that he was fired and the loss of some key players only added to that stigma.

Didn't even read.....handle and sign up date says it all.

Originally posted by Niners816:
Didn't even read.....handle and sign up date says it all.

Thanks for the riveting insight.

I think this team is in a retooling mode-a two or three year mode. This kinda reminded me of Seattle of 2010. Then it took them two drafts to be really good again. I don't expect us to be horrible but to be in the middle of the pack. I think by 2017, we'll be a contender again if Baalke waves his magic stick again. BTW, I don't hate Jed nor Baalke. And I don't think Kap is that bad as he showed us in 2014. That was a combination of his players around him sucking really bad, (cough Vernon, boone, others cough) bad offensive play calling, and having the coaching staff turning him into something he's not-a pocket passer. For the life of me, I still don't understand why teams draft quarterbacks for their speed (vince young and kap) to only fail to utilize that speed in the NFL.

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Didn't even read.....handle and sign up date says it all.

Thanks for the riveting insight.

And thanks for yours...if you want to read s**t with a handle of bandwagon and just signed up today then go ahead...youll probably like it, I'm sure he is bashing kap.

Originally posted by Niners816:
And thanks for yours...if you want to read s**t with a handle of bandwagon and just signed up today then go ahead...youll probably like or I'm sure he is bashing kap.

I'm not really bashing Kaep at all... just pointing out his weaknesses. It's not a mean synopsis. Just honest.

Originally posted by BandWagon:

Eh sort of a delusional thread...

1) Deep ball... intermediate ball... short ball... fade... post... it all doesn't matter if your quarterback struggles to read defenses and locks on to targets without going to his progressions. Colin's success as a thrower relies on set streak routes where he anticipates a single target being open based on formation vs what the defense is initially showing. He shows no ability to improvise as a thrower when his first option isn't available. Who knows, maybe the new coaching can be a big boost for him in this regard but he is a one trick pony in the passing game and was thoroughly exposed because of it. Deep balls are the least of your concern.

2) I kind of agree with you here... but I hate to break it to you, the running struggled WITH Frank Gore. I thought Hyde was going to be better than he showed last season and who knows, he could be better in his sophomore campaign. But... defending the 49ers offense is simple when the opposing defense can stack the box when they don't respect the ability of your QB to read defenses. The 49ers used to rely on a complex zone running attack that worked until opposing defenses key'd in on its tendencies. Combine the predictability of the running attack, likely suspension of Bruce Miller, and loss of Mike Iupati and it's tough to see how the running attack could get better. However I do think this coaching staff is better offensively scheme wise than the previous regime.

3) Boy... who knows. You lost your best corner in Perrish Cox. You lost your best lineback in Patrick Willis. (probably) You lost you best D-lineman in Justin Smith. Who really knows about Boreland. He had some good games and he had some not so good games. You can't bank on him to be a 5 time all pro and 8 time pro bowler and that is truly what you are giving up with the loss of Willis. Many say Aldon Smith is purely a product of Justin Smith's abilities on the left side of the line so it's going to be interesting to see if he is as effective with Justin Smith gone. The 49ers literally have no corners of note... as I mentioned Cox was the best corner for the Niners last year and thats kind of scary. Better hope that Marcus Peters or Trae Waynes is there in the first. Tank Carradine was a surprise last season and played well so I guess it's going to be fun to see what he does as a full time starter. Also, as I said that this new coaching staff could be a plus in offensive production... there is no way this coaching staff is better than Harbaughs from a defensive perspective.

4) I sort of agree with you here. Harbaugh didn't really draft or sign a lot of the main talent that lead to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl runs. York also couldn't really control the players who got hurt or retired so that's not really his fault. I think the way he handled the situation with Harbaugh is more of a black eye than the fact that he fired Harbaugh. That coupled with the loss and apparent angst of some key players only added to that stigma.

Seahawk fan for sure. prolly the one Chip banned earlier this morning. the tell is "You lost your..., You lost your..., You lost your...

Originally posted by BandWagon:
Eh sort of a delusional thread...

1) Deep ball... intermediate ball... short ball... fade... post... it all doesn't matter if your quarterback struggles to read defenses and locks on to targets without going to his progressions. Colin's success as a thrower relies on set streak routes where he anticipates a single target being open based on formation vs what the defense is initially showing. He shows no ability to improvise as a thrower when his first option isn't available. Who knows, maybe the new coaching can be a big boost for him in this regard but he is a one trick pony in the passing game and was thoroughly exposed because of it. Deep balls are the least of your concern.

2) I kind of agree with you here... but I hate to break it to you, the running struggled WITH Frank Gore. I thought Hyde was going to be better than he showed last season and who knows, he could be better in his sophomore campaign. But... defending the 49ers offense is simple when the opposing defense can stack the box when they don't respect the ability of your QB to read defenses. The 49ers used to rely on a complex zone running attack that worked until opposing defenses key'd in on its tendencies. Combine the predictability of the running attack, likely suspension of Bruce Miller, and loss of Mike Iupati and it's tough to see how the running attack could get better. However I do think this coaching staff is better offensively scheme wise than the previous regime.

3) Boy... who knows. You lost your best corner in Perrish Cox. You lost your best lineback in Patrick Willis. (probably) You lost you best D-lineman in Justin Smith. Who really knows about Boreland. He had some good games and he had some not so good games. You can't bank on him to be a 5 time all pro and 8 time pro bowler and that is truly what you are giving up with the loss of Willis. Many say Aldon Smith is purely a product of Justin Smith's abilities on the left side of the line so it's going to be interesting to see if he is as effective with Justin Smith gone. The 49ers literally have no corners of note... as I mentioned Cox was the best corner for the Niners last year and thats kind of scary. Better hope that Marcus Peters or Trae Waynes is there in the first. Tank Carradine was a surprise last season and played well so I guess it's going to be fun to see what he does as a full time starter. Also, as I said that this new coaching staff could be a plus in offensive production... there is no way this coaching staff is better than Harbaughs from a defensive perspective.

4) I sort of agree with you here. Harbaugh didn't really draft or sign a lot of the main talent that lead to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl runs. York also couldn't really control the players who got hurt or retired so that's not really his fault. I think the way he handled the situation with Harbaugh is more of a black eye than the fact that he fired Harbaugh. That coupled with the loss and apparent angst of some key players only added to that stigma.

OK...few things...

First off, delusional? Seriously?

1) Never said reading D was his strength. I was addressing a new theory that had become popular that Kap is incapable of throwing a deep ball and that because of that fact Torrey Smith is a waste of money.

2) I'm well aware of how the run game struggled. I'm also aware of the injuries on the O-Line and the lack of creativity from the once very creative OC. Funny how people look at the 300 + yards in the last two games to say "Franks still got it" but don't seem to remember the 800 yards he put up in the other 14 games. They struggled all year for a variety of reasons.

Again though, I'm talking about perception vs reality. To me, the perception that losing Frank will end the Niners chances of a great run game is foolish.

3) First off, we really don't know yet what Cowboy is gonna do. We will get Bowman back which could be huge. Aldon should play all year, Lynch is coming into his second year and looks like Brooks might stick around.

Losing Willis hurts. I love the guy...but the Niners have set themselves up as well as could be expected for that departure.


4) I'm not sure I understand how you are disagreeing with me on Harbaugh. I don't disagree with anything you said.

My lord people on this board are totally defensive... take off the rose colored glasses and see that what I wrote is an honest assessment. I pointed out positives and I pointed out negatives.

Last year about this time everyone was commenting Baalke in how much depth we have.