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The genius behind Trent Baalke's drafts

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Lately on here I have seen a lot of bashing for our GM. Personally I find it insulting that many posters on here feel that he is an inadequate manager. As somebody who wants to become a GM someday I look at Baalke as the best in the league.I figure if we as a forum are going to have people nit pick his decisions, we should all be able to see all of them and make a fair judgment
*bolded names are pro-bowl players

Lets start with 2010 (Baalke was in charge after Scot McCloughan left)
Picks- (next 3 players at that position taken)
1. Anthony Davis (Bryan Bulaga, Roger Saffold, Zane Beadles)
2. Mike Iupati (Jon Asamoah, Mike Johnson, Joe Hawley)
3. Taylor Mays (Morgan Burnett, Major Wright, Chad Jones)
4. Navarro Bowman (Darryl Sharpton, Perry Riley, Phillip Dillard)
5. Anthony Dixon (Deji Karim, Jonathan Dwyer, James Starks)
6. Nate Byham
7. Kyle Williams
8. Phillip Adams

No notable players taken after Byham

Notes-
Looks like Baalke did pretty well here. Personally I'd prefer Davis over Beadles and I'm glad we missed out on Bulaga and Saffold. Iupati is clearly the best player of the next three and Bowman is obvious. Solid draft
UDFA-
Tramaine Brock-
Would be having a great season this year if not for turf toe (at least I think so). Also led our team in INT's last year. Quality pickup
Michael Wilhoite-
Has filled in nicely for our injured ILB's. Great addition to the team.

Trades- (left is what we traded-right is what we got)
1. No.13 (Brandon Graham) and No.113 (Aaron Hernandez) for No. 11 (Anthony Davis)
2. No.79 (Donald Butler) for No.91 (Navarro Bowman) and No. 173 (Anthony Dixon)

Further analysis shows that we essentially traded
1. I don't know what kind of fan you would have to be to say, "dang-it, we missed out on Hernandez", but I'm not proud we root for the same team. And Brandon who? This one is obvious
Point Baalke
2. We got the best ILB in the NFL and a short down back for a mediocre outside linebacker. I don't feel the need to keep explaining why we win.
Point Baalke

TLDR: Baalke did well in his first draft, trading for players such as Davis and Bowman when the talent was slim at those positions. We also added help by signing additional guys like Brock and Wilhotie. Overall Baalke owned this draft, great job.



2011 Draft-Picks-
1. Aldon Smith (Akeem Ayers, Bruce Carter, Jonas Mouton)
2. Colin Kaepernick (Ryan Mallett, Ricky Stanzi, T.J. Yates)
3. Chris Culliver (DeMarcus VanDyke, Johnny Patrick, Shareece Wright)
4. Kendall Hunter (Delone Carter, Taiwan Jones, Bilal Powell)
5. Daniel Kilgore (Caleb Schlauderaff, Jason Kelce, Keith Williams)
6. Ronald Johnson (no notable players taken after this point)
7. Colin Jones
8. Bruce Miller
9. Michael Person
10. Curtis Holcomb

Notes-One of my favorite draft classes. Most people don't know but Miller was drafted as a DE and we changed him to a FB.
Point Baalke.
The only player after Johnson worth mentioning is Malcom Smith, but where is a 6'0 220lb linebacker going to fit in our 3-4?
The Culliver, Hunter, and Miller picks were the best value in my book.

Trades-
1. No.45 (Rahim Moore) and No.108 (Quinton Carter) and No.141(DJ Williams) for No.36(Colin Kaepernick)
2. No. 76 (Will Rackley) for No.80(Chris Culliver) and No.182 (Ronald Johnson)
3. No.174(Charles Clay) and No.231(Frank Kearse) for No.163 (Daniel Kilgore)

Further analysis shows that we essentially traded
1. We got a franchise QB for a mediocre safety, a back up safety, and a FA.
Point Baalke (I realized the positional value's per positions are different, but the next QB taken was Ryan Mallet, and before him was Dalton)
2. We get a quality back-up CB (now playing pretty well as a starter) for a back up G. Its a same Johnson didn't work out, but Culliver is still a better pickup.
Point Baalke
3. This one is tough. Clay is a great player, but we had Vernon at the time so essentially its a moot point.
Draw

TLDR: Baalke has yet to make a bad draft trade, everything I've seen has us coming out with better players. Look at who we could have gotten after our player was taken, when Baalke trades back its because he knows what he's doing. Excellent Draft

2012 Draft-
With a already deeply talented roster, Baalke came forward and talked about how we were going to shoot for a "Next best player available approach"
"Heading into the 2012 draft, the 49ers preached a "best player available" strategy. They had identified no significant needs and were in a position to add depth to an already incredibly deep roster."
^That being said, I am going to include notable players taken with 5 picks of ours

Picks-
1. AJ Jenkins (Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery) Missed= Doug Martin
2. LaMichael James (Ronnie Hillman, Bernard Pierce, Lamar Miller) Missed= nobody worth mentioning
3. Joe Looney (Adam Gettis, Johnnie Troutman, Rokevious Watkins) missed= T.Y. Hilton
4. Darius Fleming (Danny Trevathan, Emmanuel Acho, Aaron Brown)
5. Trenton Robinson (no notable player taken after)
6. Jason Slowey
7. Cam Johnson

UDFA-Tony Jerod-Eddie

Notes-Ouch. This one hurt. But lets be realistic, as of last year there were only 12 pro bowlers from this draft. Half of them were taken before our first pick and half of those remaining were kickers. People like to claim that this was a horrible draft for Baalke and he really missed this one. But to be honest this draft class ended up being one of the worst I remember.

Trades-
1. No.92(T.Y. Hilton) for No.97(Lamar Miller) and 2013's 5th
2. No 97(Lamar Miller) for No.103(Frank Alexander) and No. 196(Jonte Green) and 2013's 6th
3. No. 103(Frank Alexander) for No.180(Trenton Robinson) and 2013's 3rd
4. No. 125(Ronnell Lewis) and No. 196(Jonte Green) for No. 117(Joe Looney)

Notes-
I want to pause here for a bit. At first glance this looks horrible. We traded away T.Y. Hilton for Lamar Miller and a future draft pick. Then we traded Miller for bench player A and bench player B as well as a future draft pick. We then trade bench player A for Trenton Robinson and a future pick. Then we trade Ronnell Lewis and bench player B for Joe Looney.Lots going on there, we missed some great player like Hilton and Miller. But lets be honest, Miller plays behind one of the best O-lines in the NFL, and I'm not so sure Hilton would have worked out on this team. (See every WR drafted under 6 ft)
The thing people seem to forget about these trades is that we obtained future picks, lets take a look at what came of those picks
Future 3rd round pick(coupled with a first)- Eric Reid
Future 6th round pick- Anquan Boldin
Future 5th round pick- Colt McCoy

TLDR:I realize this draft was horrible. But if we are taking off the Baalke hate goggles we can see that it was horrible for almost everyone. Hardly any talent came of this draft. One thing I would like to include is that Baalke made moves in this draft to bring in guys like Anquan Boldin, Eric Reid, and Vance McDonald. Not great, but not worth being bitter over.

2013 Draft-
1. Eric Reid (Matt Elam, Jonathan Cyprien, D.J. Swearinger)
2. Tank Carradine (Margus Hunt, Demontre Moore, Sam Montgomery)
3. Vance McDonald (Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, Dion Sims)
4. Corey Lemonier (Alex Oakafor, Trevardo Williams, William Gholston)
5. Quinton Patton (Kenny Stills, Corey Fuller, Tavarres King)
6. Marcus Lattimore (Denard Robinson, Stepfan Taylor, Joseph Randle)
7. Quinton Dial (no notable players drafted after)
8. Nick Moody
9. BJ Daniels
10. Carter Bykowski
11. Marcus Cooper

Notes-I'm glad we missed out on some of these people (only in this instance) because it shows how on top of the ball Baalke is with his prospects. The past 3 years the only person I believe we missed on in terms of positional value was taking AJ Jenkins before Alshon Jeffery. 1 time in 3 years. This draft shows how hard this process truly is, Baalke makes it look easy. A couple players that stand out to me are Patton in front of Stills and McDonald in front of Reed/Kelce. To be fair Mcdonald hasn't really had a chance, but still.

Trades-
1. Alex Smith for No.34(Justin Hunter) and 2014's 3rd round
2. No.199(John Hekker) for Anquan Boldin
3. No.164(Mike Gillisee) and No.227(Garrett Gilkey) for Colt McCoy and No.173(Vinston Painter)
4. No.31(Travis Frederick) and No.74(Terrance Williams) for No.18(Eric Reid)
5. No.34 (Justin Hunter) for No.40(Tank Carradine) and No.216(Charles Johnson)
6. No.61(Eddie Lacy) and No.173(Vinston Painter) for No.55(Vance McDonald)
7. No.93(Will Davis) and No.216(Charles Johnson) for No. 88(Corey Lemonier)

Notes-
Lots going on here like last year. First thing that stands out to me is Eddie Lacy. Ouch, no excuse for that one. I can only imagine that Baalke figured he could gamble on Lattimore while Gore played another season and if that plan implodes, theres always next year (Carlos Hyde). And who knows, Vance might turn out to be a great TE, I don't think he's there yet but I've seen flashes. Solid trading by Baalke, set us up well for the season.

TLDR: Eddie Lacy, that one hurt. Him and Alshon Jeffery are the only two Baalke has missed (in my opinion). But we still obtained some great pieces from this draft and in hindsight we can now understand Baalke's plan.
1. Passed on Lacy because Lattimore was there, unfortunately that didn't turn out. Still ended up getting Hyde
2. That Alex Smith trade resulted in Alex Smith for Tank Carradine, Carlos Hyde, Stevie Johnson, Chris Borland, and Corey Lemonier. Enough SaidAll in all, I hope this thread helps to educate some posters on here, Baalke is the man in charge

/rant


TLDR:http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/2/28/4038682/alex-smith-trade-49ers-chiefs-trent-baalke-gm-trent-dilfer
[ Edited by Quest4six on Dec 3, 2014 at 8:20 PM ]
Wow great post.
Originally posted by Method:
Wow great post.

Thank you,
It took me awhile and honestly there were many things I'd forgotten/overlooked that Baalke has done.

Guys like Bowman, Davis, Reid, Boldin, Johnson, Borland, Hyde

None of them would be here if not for Baalke


Great post!
Good points about AJJ vs Alshon and McDonald vs Lacy!! Imagine if 49ers had Alshon and Lacy instead of AJJ and Vance. Epic
Holy crap ... you really do want to be a GM. Well done!
  • Jd925
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,286
I think the drafts have been good, but I think looking at positions is just one perspective. I would look at the Best Player Available as well

2010. Very good draft overall.
1st Round: #11 Anthony Davis - good pick, but using BPA Earl Thomas was #14, Jason-Pierre Paul was #15
(Singletary was mad when he missed out on Thomas and had to settle for Taylor Mays. They probably thought he'd drop)
1st Round: #17 Mike Iupati - great pick. BPA after Markice Pouncey at #18, Demayrius Thomas #22, Bryan Bulaga #23, Dez Bryant #24, Devin McCourty #27
3rd Round: Navarro Bowman. Huge steal here.
Other steals after Bowman using BPA, Jimmy Graham TE, Alterraun Verner, Aaron Hernandez, Geno Atkins, Kam Chancellor, Greg Hardy, Antonio Brown

2011. Very good draft.
1st Round: #7 Aldon Smith BPA #11 JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, Mike Pouncey, Ryan Kerrigan
2nd Round: Colin Kaepernick: Great pick, but this is mostly Harbaugh.
3rd Round: Culliver: Great pick. I actually thought he would be a bust, but has been playing at a high level.
(Baalke pick.. probably had insight from Parcells.. high on Parcells draft board I remember)
4th Round: Kendall Hunter: Great pick.
5th Round: Kilgore: Solid OL
Only guy they missed out on was Richard Sherman in the 5th. I don't think Harbaugh and Sherman got along anyways.

2012. Below avg draft. Missed out on Alshon Jeffery, Janoris Jenkins etc but not a talented draft overall I don't think

2013. Eric Reid - Great pick. (This was probably another Harbaugh pick since he recruited the guy for college) BPA after Desmond Trufant..Cyprien, Swearinger have been pretty good at S.
McDonald has been ok. We seemed to have missed out on Kelce.
Lemonier has been good.
Patton has been good, but hasn't gotten an opportunity.


Overall I woudn't call it genius.....I think Baalke has gotten help from Harbaugh on Reid & Kap and others......probably A- grade... and if you include the 2014 draft and free agency you can give him an A grade...
The 2014 draft is ridiculous. Baalke hit a home-f**king-run with this class.
[ Edited by sf_nicoya on Dec 3, 2014 at 9:48 PM ]
My eyes popped out when I saw Travis Kelsey picked after VMac. If we had picked him Vernon would have been let go.
  • 190836
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 11,930
2012 and 2013 are almost complete bust. Reid is the only one worth mentioning. He shined in 2011draft.
[ Edited by 190836 on Dec 3, 2014 at 10:02 PM ]

Originally posted by sf_nicoya:
The 2014 draft is ridiculous. Baalke hit a home-f**king-run with this class.

I was gonna add that into this but there are some things that we will have to wait on
I'll do another write up after the 2015 NFL draft

But I do agree
I think people are going to look back and sh*t bricks when they see Lynch was taken in the 5th
It's arguable that 2010 wasn't his draft. Scotty Mac was fired, what, a few weeks before the draft? Who knows how much the draft boards changed.

And I'd rather see the next three selections, as opposed to the next three of the same position, show. Like 2011, Aldon Smith is looking like a badass right now, but it shows Ayers (selected halfway through the second round) instead of J.J. Watt.
Originally posted by OregonNiner87:
It's arguable that 2010 wasn't his draft. Scotty Mac was fired, what, a few weeks before the draft? Who knows how much the draft boards changed.

And I'd rather see the next three selections, as opposed to the next three of the same position, show. Like 2011, Aldon Smith is looking like a badass right now, but it shows Ayers (selected halfway through the second round) instead of J.J. Watt.

I was thinking of that as well,
But Watt and Smith don't necessarily play the same positions. I mean they are both pass rushing monsters but Watt would play more RayMac/Justin Smith's(DE) position, not Aldon.

I'll go back and update though
Originally posted by 190836:
2012 and 2013 are almost complete bust. Reid is the only one worth mentioning. He shined in 2011draft.

As usual NT way too trigger happy with the accusation of bust. 2013 has not been played enough to assess yet although I like what I have seen from Tank.

OP: nice work.
Originally posted by OregonNiner87:
It's arguable that 2010 wasn't his draft. Scotty Mac was fired, what, a few weeks before the draft? Who knows how much the draft boards changed.

And I'd rather see the next three selections, as opposed to the next three of the same position, show. Like 2011, Aldon Smith is looking like a badass right now, but it shows Ayers (selected halfway through the second round) instead of J.J. Watt.

I agree. Scotty was fired way to close to the draft. It was all his work mostly in the 2010 draft. No way it should count as Balkee draft at all. The board was almost all set by the time Scotty left.

The 2012 draft wasn't talented but it was a huge failure IMO and it's hurting us right now. 2012 drafted players would have been a perfect time to take over right now. Enought time in the NFL to learn and take over starting spots.

2013 was meh. Other than Reed. I don't see anyone in that draft making a huge impact at all.

2014 has been a big hit though and 2011 was good too.

Overall I give him a B-. His 2012 and 2013 drafts are hurting us big time. We needed OL depth and a true NT for A LONG TIME and we still havent draft one. It's crazy.
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