My thoughts on this season and the offense

If you'll indulge my little bit of post whoring here, after last night there's a whole bunch of stuff that I've been thinking over regarding this team and the sorry state of the offense, please excuse my long rant here.




-Running the playclock down. I get it, you run the play clock down, the defense reveals their intentions, shows off their coverage yet at the same time it allows the defense to get a jump on the line as they can better time when the ball is going to be snapped.


Kaepernick hasn't shown the sort of recognition to understand exactly what the defense is doing and where to go with the ball, even when they do reveal their coverage and in some cases it seems teams are picking up on his proclivities and are baiting him into throwing passes where a second defensive back suddenly steps up into the area. I think Kaepernick puts way too much emphasis on pre-snap reads.

If you run the clock down with a guy like Brady or Manning, seasoned veterans that can pick defenses apart in their sleep, then its an advantage to the offense, but with Kaepernick, I don't see him ever getting to their level of reading a defense but even so, the guy can still win you games but with him at quarterback, there is no real advantage to running the clock all the way down, especially considering the state of the OL, they need all the help that they can get.



QB Approach- Even though it really doesn't reflect in the stats, Kaepernick did look a lot better when he was rolling out in the second half. What boggled my mind is that they seemingly refuse to utilize his mobility and they are trying to force him to turn into something he's not. He's not a classic dropback passer, if you wanted a dropback passer, you should have taken someone else in the draft. Kaepernick's strength is his mobility, his athleticism, he looks far more confident when he's on the run. They seemingly are trying to force a square peg into a round hole and it just isn't working.


Execution- Execution issues continue, I've been watching the same sorts of problems crop up for the better part of four seasons now. All the shifting and other assorted BS doesn't help, defenses aren't buying in, they aren't fooled anymore. Back in 2011 the offense surprised a lot of people with the motioning, moving guys around all over the place, teams didn't know what to expect. Nowadays it just looks tired, every quality defense almost seems to have a guy up in the booth with Roman as he's making the playcalls, relaying them back to the defense. Sherman couldn't stop bragging that they knew exactly what was coming. In 2012, the Rams couldn't stop bragging that they knew exactly what was coming. Dahl came over here and confirmed that they knew exactly what was coming. Minnesota's defensive players couldn't stop bragging that they knew exactly what was coming. Execution becomes a b***h when the defense is all over your playcalls the vast majority of the time. Defenses in the NFL are way too good for them to be given any additional advantages and I think regardless of all the cute, gimmicky stuff they try at times, teams are well aware of exactly what this offense is trying to do and how to shut them down.


The most disheartening thing is seeing guys looking so listless out there. Regularly you'll see receivers basically walk their routes down the field, making it entirely clear that they know even before the ball is snapped that the pass isn't coming their way. Just by looking at the body language of the guys on offense, they aren't buying into this scheme anymore, they don't believe in it, nobody really seems fired up and the leadership void, especially in the two minute offense, is highly visible. That falls on Kaepernick, as the QB he should be the guy to make sure everyone has got it together, that they are aware of the situation and what needs to be done but I think as a quarterback he's gotten to the point where he's trying to be too buddy buddy with guys instead of letting them know that they are f**king up. I don't think its his style to be very vocal and get into guys faces but that is what the position demands. Everyone needs to be held accountable, including Kaepernick himself.




Kaepernick. Some games he looks like he's progressing, some games he looks like he's regressing badly. I don't know if its a feature of the offense or just a major shortcoming on his part but he's looking for the homerun ball way too often, trying to force passes into coverage when nothing is really there. He doesn't look confident at all and I think part of that is the coaches trying to get him to be a dropback passer but that's just not who he is. We've seen him play very well at times but he's still too inconsistent. However I still think that if you put him in an offense that is more aligned with his strengths, I could see him doing substantially better. I think in an offense like Philadelphia's he could do some real damage. When the 49ers ran the no huddle versus Arizona earlier this season, he looked the best I've seen since that Chicago Bears game. He was decisive, making quick throws, short passes to receivers, steadily moving the ball down the field.....and then they never did that again. Its tough to gauge how much is on him and how much is the scheme but I think the blame goes both ways. Kaepernick made some very poor ill-advised throws yesterday. Some times the defender makes an outstanding play and you can't do anything about it, sometimes the wide receiver screws up a route, Kaepernick simply was floating passes right to Sherman, inexplicably. Those are the sorts of plays that he has to be smarter about. He's always going to be the gunslinger type which is always going to result in some interceptions but I don't see what good can come of trying to challenge Sherman on the outside repeatedly. I have hope that he can come back from this but I just don't ever see him or really any QB having sustained success in this herky jerky sort of offense.





The offensive scheme- The scheme emphasizes the vertical passing offense but this team doesn't really have any downfield threats. 34 year old Brandon Lloyd is pretty much the best deep threat on this team and that really isn't saying a lot. Most of the receivers are possession guys who would have a better fit in a more traditional WCO. Guys aren't regularly getting open downfield. I saw Lloyd get wide open on one play and Boldin on another but the focus on downfield passing, and I don't know if that is a result of Harbaugh and Roman's design or if Kaepernick simply wants to chuck it deep has really led to a majority of this team's struggles IMO. VD was the deep threat, but VD isn't looking like himself right now and with teams not having to focus as much on him, it really makes this offense a lot less threatening. It seems like offensively, they want to have a passing offense similar to what Arizona has, the difference is that Arizona has actual vertical threats like John Brown and a playcaller with decades of experience in just that sort of offense.



This offense has been getting more talented......but yet the results have been getting worse. That is simply inexcusable. The playcalling leaves a lot to be desired, people can talk about execution and the quarterback....etc, but a lot of these same issues have consistently been there for the better part of four seasons now. The offense doesn't even have injury issues like the defense does to sort of explain away their troubles. Guys have been dinged up on offense but on the defensive side, you've got All-Pro's that have missed nearly the entire season. There's no excuses.


There are no excuses for this team being so awful on first down. Opposing defenses aren't really doing anything special. They line up in the box to stop the run and then blitz like crazy on third down. Rinse and repeat, game in and game out and yet this team still hasn't adapted to that. Even yesterday I'm seeing Seattle bringing blitzes on third down and there doesn't seem to be any sort of adjustment on the part of the offense. You can blame Kaepernick for only so long, at some point you'd think that the coaching staff would step in and say "Hey look, when they blitz us like crazy, we need to get the ball out quick, there needs to be a hot route to beat the blitz" and yet nothing has seemingly changed.


All the motioning, the shifting, but this is a pretty vanilla offense, either run the ball pretty much straight ahead or play chuck and duck with a bunch of possession receivers that don't get much separation. It seems like they make things way too complex for the type of results they are getting. Seattle pretty much ran the same few plays on offense over and over again and they won because they executed. They weren't fooling anyone, did anyone doubt that they were going to be rolling out Russell Wilson all game, and yet they stuck with the same plays, they executed well and the offense worked. Better execution wins over complex playcalling every single day. The offense knows where they are going, the defense thinks they know where the offense is going but they really aren't sure.



My gut feeling is the same as I've had for a few seasons now. This is really bad offense at its core. It goes beyond personnel, beyond execution, this is just not a good scheme. You can't run a scheme where you have THIS much talent and the results are so dismal. Being almost dead last in first down yards, being near the bottom in passing offense continually, it just doesn't cut it anymore. Opposing defenses have caught on, they understand what is coming and what this offense wants to do and I'm really tired of this offense continually playing into the defense's hands. This season is the worst offensively since the Hostler era, it so frustrating and the lack of leadership on offense is quite telling. When this team gets into a situation like 2nd and 15, 2nd and 20, they pretty much shut down and most of the times you can count on them gaining very few yards after that, or on 3rd and 8, you can count on them picking up 6 or 7 yards with the ball winding up in front of the first down marker. This has been happening continually since 2011.



Additionally, for all the people chanting "just run the ball." Not sure if you've noticed but this really isn't a power running offense anymore. With the various injuries on the OL, with guys regressing, they aren't enforcing their will on opposing defenses, the holes that were popping up in previous seasons....aren't there anymore and teams are happily loading up the box to stuff the run and dare this team to throw. Gore has done an INCREDIBLE job in turning a whole lot of nothing into something. Hyde as well has had moments where he should have been stuffed a few yards behind the line of scrimmage but still picked up 3 or 4 yards somehow. I don't see the RB's as the problem but the OL simply isn't as good, defenses are selling out to stop the run and there is no coherent passing offense to pick up the slack. This is not a modern passing offense by any stretch. Dilfer last year talked about this being an "archaic, 1970s passing offense" and he was right on the money. This looks like a Steelers offense from the 70s, which was great in that time but since then, defenses have more than adapted.




In short, this teams needs a change in direction on offense. There's too much stuff going wrong to blame it on any one party but I think this sort of stuff tends to snowball and pretty soon, nothing is working right. The run game isn't working right, the passing offense isn't working right, the OL isn't blocking right, the QB isn't looking right, everything is off and that lands directly at the feet of the coaching staff. Changes need to be made, whether or without their consent, as great a job as the defense has done, the offense has been pretty mediocre and without some changes in the scheme, I don't think there's any good reason to expec things to get better. As far as Kaepernick goes, as I said, its tough to gauge the extent of how much he's screwing up and how much the offense is forcing him to be a square peg trying to fit into a round hole. I'm not ready to give up on him simply because a lot of the issues that we are seeing.....existed before he even became the starting quarterback. He's maddeningly inconsistent but has enough potential that I'd like to see what he can do with a more effective offensive scheme.

I just read the whole thing...

In a nutshell, Our scheme sucks, Kaep's reached max potential, our WRs are mediocre and overrated.

I agree Phoenix!

Nailed it 100%

Here is what could happen....

We fire Roman and:
1. Jim or somebody else takes over and we look great (Problem fixed)
2. Jim or somebody else takes over and we look the same

If we look the same we are left with more questions:
1. The philosophy of the new OC (not being Harbs just sucks)
2. Jim is not letting the new guy run a smart system or Jim just mirrors what Roman did
3. Kap might be whats limiting both OC's

If the philosophy of the new OC sucks we can fire him and begin the musical chairs routine and screw over Kap like we did with Alex

If we assume Jim is the sole reason why we still look like crap:
1. We fire Harbs and a good portion of the staff leaves

Now we get yet another new HC and a new OC. If the problems still persist:
1. Trent/Jed made a stupid hire (Sing-Raye)
2. Kap is the main problem

If we assume Kap is the main problem after all of this that means we let Roman go (wont shed a tear) and Harbs go (potential massive error) by mistake. Or we just keep hiring and firing OC's and HC's trying to find a special fit for Kap...cant see that happening.


So the question becomes who would you rather part with if it came down to it? Kap or Harbs

Originally posted by jreff22:
Here is what could happen....

We fire Roman and:
1. Jim or somebody else takes over and we look great (Problem fixed)
2. Jim or somebody else takes over and we look the same

If we look the same we are left with more questions:
1. The philosophy of the new OC (not being Harbs just sucks)
2. Jim is not letting the new guy run a smart system or Jim just mirrors what Roman did
3. Kap might be whats limiting both OC's

If the philosophy of the new OC sucks we can fire him and begin the musical chairs routine and screw over Kap like we did with Alex

If we assume Jim is the sole reason why we still look like crap:
1. We fire Harbs and a good portion of the staff leaves

Now we get yet another new HC and a new OC. If the problems still persist:
1. Trent/Jed made a stupid hire (Sing-Raye)
2. Kap is the main problem

If we assume Kap is the main problem after all of this that means we let Roman go (wont shed a tear) and Harbs go (potential massive error) by mistake. Or we just keep hiring and firing OC's and HC's trying to find a special fit for Kap...cant see that happening.


So the question becomes who would you rather part with if it came down to it? Kap or Harbs

I really don't want either to go, but I have no faith in the explanation that Kaepernick is the problem when this team didn't really look all that much better with Smith as the quarterback. Remember the Minnesota game in 2012 where the offense looked utterly helpless and Vikings players where chortling about how they had the 49ers number. This didn't start with Kaepernick, the redzone issues didn't start with Kaepernick, the problems converting on third down...etc


I have zero faith that if you replace Kaepernick with another quarterback and still keep this offensive scheme the same, that it will make any sort of appreciable difference. I have zero faith that if you blow a ton of picks to choose a receiver at the very top of the draft, that they will be used properly in this offense. In short, I don't have faith in anything about this offensive scheme or the playcalling.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I really don't want either to go, but I have no faith in the explanation that Kaepernick is the problem when this team didn't really look all that much better with Smith as the quarterback. Remember the Minnesota game in 2012 where the offense looked utterly helpless and Vikings players where chortling about how they had the 49ers number. This didn't start with Kaepernick, the redzone issues didn't start with Kaepernick, the problems converting on third down...etc


I have zero faith that if you replace Kaepernick with another quarterback and still keep this offensive scheme the same, that it will make any sort of appreciable difference. I have zero faith that if you blow a ton of picks to choose a receiver at the very top of the draft, that they will be used properly in this offense. In short, I don't have faith in anything about this offensive scheme or the playcalling.

I can agree with that. Now the main followup question. We all want Roman gone (no argument there) but will you sacrifice Harbs to completely purge this crap from the team? Remember a new HC could be worse.

Originally posted by jreff22:
I can agree with that. Now the main followup question. We all want Roman gone (no argument there) but will you sacrifice Harbs to completely purge this crap from the team? Remember a new HC could be worse.

If Harbaugh refuses to make some changes, starting with the OC, then he needs to go as well. Being just good enough to win but not good enough to win it all doesn't pass muster. This offense has been the limiting factor for this team for like 4 seasons now. Harbaugh needs to be willing to accept another OC and give them some degree of autonomy to see if they can help fix this offense. If this offense was playing up to its potential, this team probably has 1 loss at best this season so far.


Jim Mora when he was with the Colts, refused to fire Vic Fangio as his DC, Mora got shown the door and Dungy took over which worked out well for the Colts. You can't be so loyal to your staff that you develop tunnel vision as to the issues that exist, and the biggest issue on this team is the offense's lack of progress and consistent lack of effectiveness.

Good post. Now, the immediate issue with four games left is what happens for the remainder of this season - do they fire Roman now? If so, you have to replace him (at least for the meantime, for this season) with someone that will make the appropriate adjustments to the scheme but it can't be too much of an overhaul as this is what the players have been practicing and know - there's still a chance to make the playoffs and too many changes right now to the scheme could throw things even more off and be disruptive. Maybe Harbaugh just takes over more of the playcalling responsibilities in working with Chryst if they let go of Roman now and then they find a permanent OC solution after the season ends (I really like Norv Turner yet I know he's w/ the Browns)?

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
If Harbaugh refuses to make some changes, starting with the OC, then he needs to go as well. Being just good enough to win but not good enough to win it all doesn't pass muster. This offense has been the limiting factor for this team for like 4 seasons now. Harbaugh needs to be willing to accept another OC and give them some degree of autonomy to see if they can help fix this offense. If this offense was playing up to its potential, this team probably has 1 loss at best this season so far.


Jim Mora when he was with the Colts, refused to fire Vic Fangio as his DC, Mora got shown the door and Dungy took over which worked out well for the Colts. You can't be so loyal to your staff that you develop tunnel vision as to the issues that exist, and the biggest issue on this team is the offense's lack of progress and consistent lack of effectiveness.

I live in Seattle. Drove into work today and they had Mike Holmgren on the radio and he talked at length about San Francisco's offensive woes. Holmgren was suggesting there is a major breakdown on all levels. He sounded surprised that our coaches would ever let it reach such a low level. He went on to rip Kaepernick a bit (sort of in a nice way) saying his footwork is horrible. He is not stepping into his throws, not even attempting to read the defense etc.

He's not going to come out and say it directly but he was pretty appalled.

But as they say, "the fish rots from the head." The offensive problems are lengthy and it's going to take a complete revamp in offensive philosophy to correct it and I think Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are in over their heads.

Think back to the days of Blll Walsh. He'd spend hours upon hours teaching a QB how to drop back. Holmgren tells as story that he was an assistant coach, Walsh would review a game or a practice and scribble errors that occurred on yellow post it notes. At the end of the film session, he'd group the sticky notes by position and hand them out to the assistant coaches to fix. Holmgren might get a note saying, "at the 8:05 mark, Joe threw the ball to the receiver on the left shoulder instead of the right." The point I'm trying to make here is there was attention to GREAT detail. Now granted there is only one Bill Walsh but I'm guessing there is ABSOLUTE ZERO attention to offensive detail when it comes to QB, WR, OL (while they are pass blocking), passing schemes etc.

Sadly I've lost ALL confidence in Jim's ability to correct these issues. ZERO CONFIDENCE. It's never going to happen. I'm not as down on CK as others. He has a world of potential but he's not getting the coaching that he needs at this point in time.

So the entire problem boils down to Jim Harbaugh and his stubbornness. He MUST MUST MUST relinquish his "control" over the offense and allow a "Baalke approved OC" to come to reassemble the pieces and TEACH the offensive how to operate.

As most have concluded by now, if Jim disagrees then BYE, it's been nice knowing you!

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by jreff22:
I can agree with that. Now the main followup question. We all want Roman gone (no argument there) but will you sacrifice Harbs to completely purge this crap from the team? Remember a new HC could be worse.

If Harbaugh refuses to make some changes, starting with the OC, then he needs to go as well. Being just good enough to win but not good enough to win it all doesn't pass muster. This offense has been the limiting factor for this team for like 4 seasons now. Harbaugh needs to be willing to accept another OC and give them some degree of autonomy to see if they can help fix this offense. If this offense was playing up to its potential, this team probably has 1 loss at best this season so far.


Jim Mora when he was with the Colts, refused to fire Vic Fangio as his DC, Mora got shown the door and Dungy took over which worked out well for the Colts. You can't be so loyal to your staff that you develop tunnel vision as to the issues that exist, and the biggest issue on this team is the offense's lack of progress and consistent lack of effectiveness.

You know the saddest part of it all is that, we don't even need the offense to "live up to it's potential." If this offense could just put up 25 points a game, with all of this talent at receiver, TE, RB, and QB, we'd be the class of the NFL. It would basically put them somewhere between 8th and 15th, which is about all we would need. Most games wouldn't be close and we could really focus in on teeing off on the QB by playing more of Aldon Smith and Aaron Lynch (and possibly Tank Carradine) because the threat of a running game would be all but eliminated.

Funny thing is, with the Colts example, looking back on it, Vic Fangio didn't exactly have world beaters out there on defense. I think the only player of note on the 2001 Colts defense was a rookie by the name of Dwight Freeney. But your point is well taken Phoenix49ers. Greg Roman has a helluva lot more than what Fangio had in 2001. He has world beaters. He has All-Pros, former pro bowlers, or guys that are just simply good at what they do. There is no excuse.

We have a bad offensive scheme. Even Jimmy Graham gets wide open a couple of times a game and he is their #1 threat but we almost never see an open receiver unless it's a broken play. Most of our completions are to a covered receiver making a contested catch. We have no screen game. We don't seem to have a Hot receiver when opponents blitz. We rarely use our backs in the passing game. We have the best set of receivers we have had in a decade and our passing game has regressed. We need a change but will Harbaugh go for it? This will be a big offseason for the 49ers.

Originally posted by jreff22:
I can agree with that. Now the main followup question. We all want Roman gone (no argument there) but will you sacrifice Harbs to completely purge this crap from the team? Remember a new HC could be worse.

I see this argument all the day and it makes me laugh. Unless the new HC comes in and decides to mess with the defense, how does this team get worse? We have arguably the worst offense in the league relative to the personnel on the field. I am fairly confident that all 31 other coaching staffs do better with our offense than Harbs/Roman have.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I have zero faith that if you replace Kaepernick with another quarterback and still keep this offensive scheme the same, that it will make any sort of appreciable difference.

This.

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
. We need a change but will Harbaugh go for it? This will be a big offseason for the 49ers.

May no longer be his choice anymore.

Originally posted by znk916:

Originally posted by jreff22:
I can agree with that. Now the main followup question. We all want Roman gone (no argument there) but will you sacrifice Harbs to completely purge this crap from the team? Remember a new HC could be worse.

I see this argument all the day and it makes me laugh. Unless the new HC comes in and decides to mess with the defense, how does this team get worse? We have arguably the worst offense in the league relative to the personnel on the field. I am fairly confident that all 31 other coaching staffs do better with our offense than Harbs/Roman have.

Fangio goes with Harbs. And we could get a Nolan 2.0...or the new HC fires Fangio.