Originally posted by BOI49er:
Why is this so damn hard? No quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl in the cap era while making more than $18 mil/year, adjusted to this years's cap. Therefore, no quarterback is worth more than that, as it weakens your team and it is just not a winning strategy. Only three Super Bowls have been won by qb's making more than even 10% of cap, or $13.3 mil/year.
It drives me nuts that everyone talks about what a qb has done or achieved. All qb's are part of a team. Many of these losing qb's cited had terrible teams and coaching, and might well have done significantly better in better situations. We need look no farther than Alex Smith's history with our team. Had he started his career with Harbaugh and this strong niner team, who knows what Harbaugh might have done with him? And many great qb's have never won SB's, like Marino and Archie Manning. You need to be good at the position, to be sure, but you need to be good at every position too, and this is just not achievable, at least for long, with a qb making $18m plus. All the big qb names won SB's before being paid the elite dollars, and the current crop are still the best qb's in the league, but they can't win Lombardi's anymore because their teams are not near the best. They win lots of games, to be sure. But they can't beat the best. See SB last.
Kaep's supporters like to blame other elements of the team for not winning Lombardi's the last two years. But the reality is that the starting lineup will be weaker if you "pay the man", and the backups you will need to play extensively to go 19-20 games will be weaker. We just won't have the talent to go all the way.
The era of a great quarterback carrying a mediocre team is over. The defenses are all just too good and smart at identifying weaknesses, and if you are not really good yourself at every position. you have no chance.
This whole idea that you need a "franchise quarterback" to win a Super Bowl drives people into making decisions that good management practices and analysis clearly shows is unwise in the extreme. Wilson wasn't a "franchise quarterback" before he won a SB. Flacco wasn't a "franchise quarterback" before he won a SB. Flacco got paid, and couldn't even make the playoffs in only his first year under a highly back loaded contract, because even back loading effects the contracts you offer to other players now, and you lose them. It only gets worse.
We have a great team that if held at this level will compete for Lombardi's year in and year out. I don't want to lose anybody, but if given the choice of having to replace six or eight top starters, many of which will have to be filled with mid round draft picks, or replacing one man, I'll take the one man every time. Especially if that one man is at the position our head coach is best prepared to identify, draft, develop and coach. If we've got the strong team and Harbaugh as coach, I like our chances.
The era of a "franchise quarterback" carrying a mediocre team to Super Bowl wins is over. Let's stay the best team. Go Niners.
We can all do math.
I get your point....but you know how else teams don't win a SB? Without a very good QB.
Lets look at those QBs who HAVE won over the last 10 years...
Wilson
E. Manning
Rodgers
Brees
Roethlisberger
E. Manning
P. Manning
Roethlisberger
Brady
Brady
B. Johnson
If those guys were free agents right now, how many of them do you think would be making more than 20 mil on their contracts? ALL OF THEM besides Brad Johnson.
I know what you are saying about weakening the rest of the team. The other option however is getting what most of the NFL is looking for...a really good CHEAP QB. That's a fantasy world. You won't find one as a free agent so you have to draft one. Then you have to see if you can turn him into something and put your entire franchise on his shoulders. There simply aren't that many guys with whom you can do that. It takes a certain personality and strength of will that you don't find just anywhere.
Yup, Seattle did it with Wilson. That's the exception though, not the rule. The Niners did it with Kap. He's got "it". I see peeps here bemoan the fact that he didn't win the SB. The dude was in his 10th NFL start. You should go look sometime what Montana and Young looked like after 10 starts. Hell, you should look at their QB ratings after their first season and a half. You should look at their playoff records...particularly on the road.
No team has won with that % going to the QB? There are a lot of things that have never happened. That doesn't mean they never will. No team had ever won a SB that played its home games in a dome. Then the Rams did it. Then the Saints.
The Flacco example BTW works against you, not for you. The Ravens had the opportunity to lock him up cheaper and elected not to. They were forced to pay him AFTER the SB. They then lost a HUGE number of players on the roster immediately and not all salary cap reasons. (Boldin, Lewis, Reed and several others).
With the increasing Cap, Colins $$$ will actually be lower from a % standpoint than Flacco...particularly since the cap is about to rise dramatically. Locking him up in todays dollars instead of the market in a year or 2 makes him CHEAPER in the grand scheme.