Thoughts on why Niners chose to make so many draft picks

Originally posted by NorthNiner:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Fantastic post esp. the bold! And we're in great financial shape going forward. We'll lose a player like Iupati most likely, maybe Crabtree but we already have replacements in place. As to sustainability, for example, the SeAdderall CheatHawks only have $26.1 remaining to sign the following (bigger named) players next year: Wilson ($18-20M annually?), Avril (4-years, $28M?), Wright, Wagner, Smith, Maxwell, Okung, etc. and that's assuming the cap increases to $140M from $133M this year. The Hawks are going to have to rely heavily on a lot of rookie contributions and no injuries to sustain long-term success thanks to the big-3 contracts.

Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl/177017-seattle-going-have-cap-casualties/page65/#ZSUx47668v8b6Hou.99

The other brilliant thing we've done is develop an internal farm system (some on the PUP/IR and others as developing UDFA's or "role players"); don't forget the grocery-long list of first/second year players that are ready to compete this year alone, as well.

I think your player replacement comments are dead on correct and to speculate a little further, I think with these 4 and 5 year reasonable rookie contracts that we now have with the new CBA it could be that in the future lots of players will get that big payday from some other team while we plug in the next guy still playing on his rookie contract.

No question about it. Baalke goes one step further than Walsh. Walsh would cut guys just before their decline. Baalke has their replacement training right behind them at least a year before they COULD leave the team. The benefits of this approach is enormous (i.e. pushes the player even harder in his contract year, gives us back some bargaining power, seamless transition, keeps the understudy focused and producing knowing when his window will open, etc.).

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by Rizvi49er:
you should be thinking of this as the replacement draft..

stevie for crabtree in a year
martin, thomas, for boone and/or iupati in a year
hyde for hunter and/or james in a year, gore will be either a backup or have moved on to another team by then unfortunately
ward the free safety of the future in 2 years bethea will be gone

you can't keep everyone. this was the draft to replace the players they deem too expensive to resign. also it gives us great depth that we should be able to with stand most injuries. unlike the crabtree injury last year which hampered the offense so much.

The cap is such a big part of the game now, that's why I think a lot of the 49er drafts go the way they go. You have to have a short and long term plan for the team, it's no longer enough just to win this season. YOu have to win this season and prepare for two more seasons after this.

exactly right especially with the new rookie contracts...if u don't get that 5th year option like they didn't with colin then u end up paying a bigger contract sooner...if we had 1 more year to move pieces around we'd be able to keep crabtree to most likely.

Originally posted by Rizvi49er:

exactly right especially with the new rookie contracts...if u don't get that 5th year option like they didn't with colin then u end up paying a bigger contract sooner...if we had 1 more year to move pieces around we'd be able to keep crabtree to most likely.

Regarding Crabtree specifically, I think this system is geared for a more TE and RB centered game. The WR's aren't the critical pieces (yes they are still important) but my point is if we lose Crabs, and I hope we don't, but it looks that way -- I think in this system, it's not that big a deal. Whereas in a more pass happy team like Green bay, it would be a big deal. One other point, as much as I like Crabs as a possession receiver, I think he really doesn't quite fit in this offense. The two main WR's in Harbaugh's base offense of the 20, 21 and 22 personnel groupings, should be speed guys rather than big slow possession guys. I think two big slow possession guys at the WR positions in the base offense hurts the 3rd down conversion rate of this offensive system. Faster guys at the outside (and I think that's why they reached and got AJ Jenkins - thinking he'll fix the speed problem this offense has)will make this offense much harder to stop on 3rd downs. Patton and Ellington would be the ideal outside guys in this system, in my opinion. They have much better speed than our current starting two wideouts.

I was shocked, but glad that we picked so many guys. In my first mock I had us drafting all our picks, but in my final mock I had us trading all kinds of picks.This tells me that there will be a lot of turn-around, especially with the non starters.

Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
All those months of insane mocks...when the reality is each draft is different and Baalke's direction is virtually impossible to predict. Many were clamoring for him to trade up...he did, but not in the 1st rd. Despite what some are calling a "backward draft", he grabbed some potentially great talent.

Ward - he'll force someone out. Could be Dahl, maybe

Hyde - ditto. Could be James (partly because of Ellington, too).

Marcus Martin. He'll definitely force someone out. My guess: Snyder

Borland - think he'll force Moody or Skov out.

Thomas - He'll force someone out next year. Or, he'll simply replace Iupati.

Dontae Johnson - he could force Cook out, although I think Fangio would love to have two big CB's to play press coverage. Could be Morris or Cox, too.

Lynch - man, I dunno who he'd oust. He could be depth during Aldon's suspension, but then what.

Ward & Dontae Johnson - I doubt it'll be Dahl. I think it'll be Perrish Cox and Daryl Morris for sure. Either Cook or Wright will be out as well, as I don't think we keep more than 5 CB's.

Hyde - I think LMJ is a goner.

Martin - Snyder has no chance to make this roster unless there's an injury. And I say Seymour is out too.

Borland - Fleming is already gone as I suspected. I think Moody won't be able to beat out the talent of Borland and Skov

Thomas - Agreed

D. Johnson - See Ward

Lynch - Depends on his camp and preseason. If he shows I predict Skuta will be the man out. If not, things will get complicated. He won't last on the PS, and I don't see JH & Co. putting him there anyway. But if he struggles I think JH will be hard pressed to release Skuta.

Because of VD and Boone and how several other players will likely act the same!

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
Ward & Dontae Johnson - I doubt it'll be Dahl. I think it'll be Perrish Cox and Daryl Morris for sure. Either Cook or Wright will be out as well, as I don't think we keep more than 5 CB's.

Hyde - I think LMJ is a goner.

Martin - Snyder has no chance to make this roster unless there's an injury. And I say Seymour is out too.

Borland - Fleming is already gone as I suspected. I think Moody won't be able to beat out the talent of Borland and Skov

Thomas - Agreed

D. Johnson - See Ward

Lynch - Depends on his camp and preseason. If he shows I predict Skuta will be the man out. If not, things will get complicated. He won't last on the PS, and I don't see JH & Co. putting him there anyway. But if he struggles I think JH will be hard pressed to release Skuta.

Skuta isn't going anywhere. He locked in his role as a valuable special teams contributor and reserve. He outplayed his contract in every way possible.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
Ward & Dontae Johnson - I doubt it'll be Dahl. I think it'll be Perrish Cox and Daryl Morris for sure. Either Cook or Wright will be out as well, as I don't think we keep more than 5 CB's.

Hyde - I think LMJ is a goner.

Martin - Snyder has no chance to make this roster unless there's an injury. And I say Seymour is out too.

Borland - Fleming is already gone as I suspected. I think Moody won't be able to beat out the talent of Borland and Skov

Thomas - Agreed

D. Johnson - See Ward

Lynch - Depends on his camp and preseason. If he shows I predict Skuta will be the man out. If not, things will get complicated. He won't last on the PS, and I don't see JH & Co. putting him there anyway. But if he struggles I think JH will be hard pressed to release Skuta.

Skuta isn't going anywhere. He locked in his role as a valuable special teams contributor and reserve. He outplayed his contract in every way possible.

i agree.

A bunch of our players are already saying they want new deals now. Boone and now Vernon kaps deal is going to hurt and we'll need to replace a lot of good veterans. Can't have 10 players on top 100 every year.

Originally posted by beatintina49:

A bunch of our players are already saying they want new deals now. Boone and now Vernon kaps deal is going to hurt and we'll need to replace a lot of good veterans. Can't have 10 players on top 100 every year.

The cap is a pain to deal with if you are a consistent winner like this franchise. 3 NFC CG's will create cap problems for us, unfortunately as it creates problems for both Baltimore and Seadderall too. I'd rather deal with the cap from a position of a superbowl win, but that's not in our cards. But it's a positive, in the sense that most teams without cap problems usually suck and are bottom feeters. We were once like that. Years 2005-6-7 I don't think we had any cap problems at all.

Yet at our worst period ever, Giedi, 2-14 and 4-12 we were overcap IIRC. Not sure exactly Trent's hire date, but I know he was here for some of that b.s. So he saw it and lousy talent, and learned from others mistakes. Never do I remember back with McC that we had just stolen picks from teams in trades. Of course, it is pretty hard to make trades when you don't have much in your cupboard. And that is where we find ourselves now, even tho we were in 3 consecutive NFCC games. We are loaded talentwise, are definitely going to be a better team than last yr when cutdowns come, and somehow have fixed the holes we had. Still the Anquan robbery last yr and the Stevie robbery this one are hard to believe...and right where we needed help the most...other than CB, where trent first brings in Ward, sure to start at nickel and greatly improve us but could gradually start at FS also. Then 3 mid/late rd CBs all of whom could stick...certainly two could. His liberal use of redshirts via injury status, PS, or whatever he chooses to do has been a bit overwhelming, allowing lattimore et al a yr to heal, learn and improve. If we played with 90, I would bet we would hands down have the best team.

As noted before, I dread cutdowns because we are going to cut starters for other teams. Trent's ability to trade next yr draft picks for those guys before being traded is a thing of beauty. And he does the reverse too, eg, Anquan and Stevie. You want to see the builder of a franchise, especially in depth, look no further than trent.

Originally posted by Oldschool9erfan:

A SAFETY WITH BALL SKILLS!!!!!

Old school, since some colleges put their best athletes at safety, in the old days we frequently drafted college safeties and moved them to corner (Ronnie Lott, Don Griffin, Eric Wright) and it looks like Baalke is reviving that strategy.

Originally posted by kem99:

Seems there are multiple factors at work:

1. 49ers were less impressed with the top of this draft than the "draft experts" on TV and online. We've heard they were not all that impressed with the 1st round CB's. Maybe they had some interest in Watkins, Evans or Beckham, Jr. but not at the price it would have taken to get them. Seems they believe the value in this draft was from the 2nd round on and that's reflected in their picks.

2. 49ers looking beyond just this year. Most of the conjecture of what they might do in the draft focused on what they needed for this year only (i.e. a WR, a CB). The 49ers appear to have been looking at least a year ahead. RB didn't seem like a need but Gore and Hunter are in the last year of their contracts and we don't know about Lattimore yet, so they had a chance to get a 1st round talent in the late 2nd round in Hyde now instead of it potentially being a true need next year. Same thing for drafting Martin and Thomas. If Iupati leaves, Thomas will be ready to go next year but at least be familiar with the system. Martin can also compete at G or C, which may allow Kilgore to move to G if necessary.

3. Related to 2, this draft may have been necessary in part due to the 2012 draft. We've all heard how the 2012 draft is close to being a complete loss with James and Looney the only remaining picks and James may not make it past this year. That has to be made up in some way and having deeper draft classes in 2013 and 2014 is one way to do that without blowing up the salary cap.

4. Staying ahead of the the salary cap. The 49ers know Kap and other key players are going to start getting expensive. One way to deal with that is to get as many quality cheap younger players as you can to fill out your roster.

5. It is not really 12 picks since at least 2 will be redshirted for medical reasons and not count against the 53 man roster.

6. A better roster is still a better roster. Even if a couple of picks don't make the team, get cut and picked up by other teams, if the 49ers' roster is better from a talent and cost/cap perspective as a result, that's okay.

7. I don't believe the 49ers think the gap between them and the Seahawks is as big as some in the media seem to think. As is usually the case with SB winning teams, a lot went right for the Seahawks last year. Putting injuries aside, they easily could have (and probably should have) lost to the Texans, Rams and/or Bucs but didn't. The 49ers were 1 highly disputed call away from beating the Saints in New Orleans. If just one of those things happen, the 49ers get a 1st round bye and are hosting the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. Still, the 49ers were 1 play away from beating Seattle in Seattle. With that being the case, the 49ers chose to go the route of continuing to build the overall roster for the immediate future and long haul as well. They don't see themselves as 1 player away. They see themselves as 1 play away and that they have what they need to win now but want to sustain it going forward too.

PREACH! Solid post man. I agree. With drafts like this we don't have to give everyone huge contracts to keep them around. It's the next man up!

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:
I wish Baalke woulda traded a 3rd for a 2nd next year or something. We'll basically have 7 picks next year so who knows til they take the field

We are looking at some compensatory picks in the 3rd round for FA's who leave. Plus some medical redshirts who will sit out this year and play next like we always seem to do. So it's really more than 7. It could wind up around 10 or something when you look at everything.

Don't you guys know?? Apparently our window is closing