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Thoughts on why Niners chose to make so many draft picks

Originally posted by NCommand:
I thought the success rate was 20% for both the 1st AND 2nd rounds. Either way, it's pretty poor and does anyone trust our coaching staff to develop a WR here? Really?

PS: I think 35% was for the OL.
I won't fight your numbers. They just make my case stronger.
These guys that want us to package all kinds of picks for only those who touch the ball. Being pretty set at QB and RB but, a need for WR. So many were talking packaging moving up for a WR.

These fans seem to only watch the ball during games. You NEVER, NEVER hear them wanting us to move-up/package for a OL. Only "ball touchers".
[ Edited by OldJoe on May 28, 2014 at 1:51 PM ]
Originally posted by OldJoe:
Originally posted by NCommand:
I thought the success rate was 20% for both the 1st AND 2nd rounds. Either way, it's pretty poor and does anyone trust our coaching staff to develop a WR here? Really?

PS: I think 35% was for the OL.
I won't fight your numbers. They just make my case stronger.

Hahaha. I can't find that article now...don't rely on my memory though. But you're right...moot point!
Originally posted by OldJoe:
These guys that want us to package all kinds of picks for only those who touch the ball. Being pretty set at QB and RB but, a need for WR. So many were talking packaging moving up for a WR.

These fans seem to only watch the ball during games. You NEVER, NEVER hear them wanting us to move-up/package for a OL. Only "ball touchers".




That might have something to do with the fact that we have moved up in 1st to get a top lineman and that we've had a glaring hole at WR for a solid decade.
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Playing the odds, IMO. The more guys you get, the more chances you'll hit it big.

This. Baalke quoted during the draft something like the "more darts you have, the more you hit."

I think Maiocco speculated that maybe the niners tried trading some of their picks for next year but didn't get any buyers/good trade offers.

I was surprised Baalke didn't pile up any picks for next year's draft (except getting that 2015 4th rounder back).
To trade up to 12 for Beckham we probably would have given up something like for example: #30 + #56 + #94 = #30 (Ward), #56 (turned into Hyde +2015 4th rd pick), #94 (turned into Ellington + Acker)

So for example would you rather have Beckham or
Ward + Hyde + 2015 4th + Ellington + Acker
Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:
This. Baalke quoted during the draft something like the "more darts you have, the more you hit."

I think Maiocco speculated that maybe the niners tried trading some of their picks for next year but didn't get any buyers/good trade offers.

I was surprised Baalke didn't pile up any picks for next year's draft (except getting that 2015 4th rounder back).

You never know, he might trade away some players this season to get our rooks more PT (assuming they deserve it)
Although I don't know a team who would trade draft picks for players in contract seasons (maybe Jerry Jones or the Raiders lol)
Originally posted by NCommand:
Just from an entertainment perspective, has there been a more fun/active GM to watch around draft time? Moving up, moving down, acquiring the most picks each year, trading current players for more, acquiring proven vets for free, the value, intrigue, pwning owners on value trades (in the draft and outside), etc. What blows my mind is with his reputation, how is he STILL able to make any moves at all anymore. If I was a GM, and I saw on caller I.D. "Trent Baalke" I'd block that caller every time!

I think this every time Baalke makes a move(or lack thereof) in the draft or FA!! I would think with his reputation other GM's are thinking "how is he trying to make me look like an idiot?" over "how could a trade help our team?" This guy is just one heck of a smooth talker to even get other teams to listen. I'm waiting to see a Gisele Bundchen and a 2015 2nd rounder for a 7th rounder and a Snickers trade with New England next year!
When a draft class is deep, smart teams load up on draft picks and use them. In a draft class that is not deep but top heavy, then it is smart to trade up. I also don't understand why some posters don't realize that.
Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Playing the odds, IMO. The more guys you get, the more chances you'll hit it big.

This. Baalke quoted during the draft something like the "more darts you have, the more you hit."

I think Maiocco speculated that maybe the niners tried trading some of their picks for next year but didn't get any buyers/good trade offers.

I was surprised Baalke didn't pile up any picks for next year's draft (except getting that 2015 4th rounder back).
I guess he's not impressed with the depth of next year's class. We shall see.
  • kem99
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 586
Seems there are multiple factors at work:

1. 49ers were less impressed with the top of this draft than the "draft experts" on TV and online. We've heard they were not all that impressed with the 1st round CB's. Maybe they had some interest in Watkins, Evans or Beckham, Jr. but not at the price it would have taken to get them. Seems they believe the value in this draft was from the 2nd round on and that's reflected in their picks.

2. 49ers looking beyond just this year. Most of the conjecture of what they might do in the draft focused on what they needed for this year only (i.e. a WR, a CB). The 49ers appear to have been looking at least a year ahead. RB didn't seem like a need but Gore and Hunter are in the last year of their contracts and we don't know about Lattimore yet, so they had a chance to get a 1st round talent in the late 2nd round in Hyde now instead of it potentially being a true need next year. Same thing for drafting Martin and Thomas. If Iupati leaves, Thomas will be ready to go next year but at least be familiar with the system. Martin can also compete at G or C, which may allow Kilgore to move to G if necessary.

3. Related to 2, this draft may have been necessary in part due to the 2012 draft. We've all heard how the 2012 draft is close to being a complete loss with James and Looney the only remaining picks and James may not make it past this year. That has to be made up in some way and having deeper draft classes in 2013 and 2014 is one way to do that without blowing up the salary cap.

4. Staying ahead of the the salary cap. The 49ers know Kap and other key players are going to start getting expensive. One way to deal with that is to get as many quality cheap younger players as you can to fill out your roster.

5. It is not really 12 picks since at least 2 will be redshirted for medical reasons and not count against the 53 man roster.

6. A better roster is still a better roster. Even if a couple of picks don't make the team, get cut and picked up by other teams, if the 49ers' roster is better from a talent and cost/cap perspective as a result, that's okay.

7. I don't believe the 49ers think the gap between them and the Seahawks is as big as some in the media seem to think. As is usually the case with SB winning teams, a lot went right for the Seahawks last year. Putting injuries aside, they easily could have (and probably should have) lost to the Texans, Rams and/or Bucs but didn't. The 49ers were 1 highly disputed call away from beating the Saints in New Orleans. If just one of those things happen, the 49ers get a 1st round bye and are hosting the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. Still, the 49ers were 1 play away from beating Seattle in Seattle. With that being the case, the 49ers chose to go the route of continuing to build the overall roster for the immediate future and long haul as well. They don't see themselves as 1 player away. They see themselves as 1 play away and that they have what they need to win now but want to sustain it going forward too.
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,909
competition brings out the best in everyone. and with so many picks they are building to the future thus ensuring the infamous window stays open
Originally posted by kem99:
Seems there are multiple factors at work:

1. 49ers were less impressed with the top of this draft than the "draft experts" on TV and online. We've heard they were not all that impressed with the 1st round CB's. Maybe they had some interest in Watkins, Evans or Beckham, Jr. but not at the price it would have taken to get them. Seems they believe the value in this draft was from the 2nd round on and that's reflected in their picks.

2. 49ers looking beyond just this year. Most of the conjecture of what they might do in the draft focused on what they needed for this year only (i.e. a WR, a CB). The 49ers appear to have been looking at least a year ahead. RB didn't seem like a need but Gore and Hunter are in the last year of their contracts and we don't know about Lattimore yet, so they had a chance to get a 1st round talent in the late 2nd round in Hyde now instead of it potentially being a true need next year. Same thing for drafting Martin and Thomas. If Iupati leaves, Thomas will be ready to go next year but at least be familiar with the system. Martin can also compete at G or C, which may allow Kilgore to move to G if necessary.

3. Related to 2, this draft may have been necessary in part due to the 2012 draft. We've all heard how the 2012 draft is close to being a complete loss with James and Looney the only remaining picks and James may not make it past this year. That has to be made up in some way and having deeper draft classes in 2013 and 2014 is one way to do that without blowing up the salary cap.

4. Staying ahead of the the salary cap. The 49ers know Kap and other key players are going to start getting expensive. One way to deal with that is to get as many quality cheap younger players as you can to fill out your roster.

5. It is not really 12 picks since at least 2 will be redshirted for medical reasons and not count against the 53 man roster.

6. A better roster is still a better roster. Even if a couple of picks don't make the team, get cut and picked up by other teams, if the 49ers' roster is better from a talent and cost/cap perspective as a result, that's okay.

7. I don't believe the 49ers think the gap between them and the Seahawks is as big as some in the media seem to think. As is usually the case with SB winning teams, a lot went right for the Seahawks last year. Putting injuries aside, they easily could have (and probably should have) lost to the Texans, Rams and/or Bucs but didn't. The 49ers were 1 highly disputed call away from beating the Saints in New Orleans. If just one of those things happen, the 49ers get a 1st round bye and are hosting the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. Still, the 49ers were 1 play away from beating Seattle in Seattle. With that being the case, the 49ers chose to go the route of continuing to build the overall roster for the immediate future and long haul as well. They don't see themselves as 1 player away. They see themselves as 1 play away and that they have what they need to win now but want to sustain it going forward too.

Fantastic post esp. the bold! And we're in great financial shape going forward. We'll lose a player like Iupati most likely, maybe Crabtree but we already have replacements in place. As to sustainability, for example, the SeAdderall CheatHawks only have $26.1 remaining to sign the following (bigger named) players next year: Wilson ($18-20M annually?), Avril (4-years, $28M?), Wright, Wagner, Smith, Maxwell, Okung, etc. and that's assuming the cap increases to $140M from $133M this year. The Hawks are going to have to rely heavily on a lot of rookie contributions and no injuries to sustain long-term success thanks to the big-3 contracts.

Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl/177017-seattle-going-have-cap-casualties/page65/#ZSUx47668v8b6Hou.99

The other brilliant thing we've done is develop an internal farm system (some on the PUP/IR and others as developing UDFA's or "role players"); don't forget the grocery-long list of first/second year players that are ready to compete this year alone, as well.
Originally posted by kem99:
Seems there are multiple factors at work:

1. 49ers were less impressed with the top of this draft than the "draft experts" on TV and online. We've heard they were not all that impressed with the 1st round CB's. Maybe they had some interest in Watkins, Evans or Beckham, Jr. but not at the price it would have taken to get them. Seems they believe the value in this draft was from the 2nd round on and that's reflected in their picks.

2. 49ers looking beyond just this year. Most of the conjecture of what they might do in the draft focused on what they needed for this year only (i.e. a WR, a CB). The 49ers appear to have been looking at least a year ahead. RB didn't seem like a need but Gore and Hunter are in the last year of their contracts and we don't know about Lattimore yet, so they had a chance to get a 1st round talent in the late 2nd round in Hyde now instead of it potentially being a true need next year. Same thing for drafting Martin and Thomas. If Iupati leaves, Thomas will be ready to go next year but at least be familiar with the system. Martin can also compete at G or C, which may allow Kilgore to move to G if necessary.

3. Related to 2, this draft may have been necessary in part due to the 2012 draft. We've all heard how the 2012 draft is close to being a complete loss with James and Looney the only remaining picks and James may not make it past this year. That has to be made up in some way and having deeper draft classes in 2013 and 2014 is one way to do that without blowing up the salary cap.

4. Staying ahead of the the salary cap. The 49ers know Kap and other key players are going to start getting expensive. One way to deal with that is to get as many quality cheap younger players as you can to fill out your roster.

5. It is not really 12 picks since at least 2 will be redshirted for medical reasons and not count against the 53 man roster.

6. A better roster is still a better roster. Even if a couple of picks don't make the team, get cut and picked up by other teams, if the 49ers' roster is better from a talent and cost/cap perspective as a result, that's okay.

7. I don't believe the 49ers think the gap between them and the Seahawks is as big as some in the media seem to think. As is usually the case with SB winning teams, a lot went right for the Seahawks last year. Putting injuries aside, they easily could have (and probably should have) lost to the Texans, Rams and/or Bucs but didn't. The 49ers were 1 highly disputed call away from beating the Saints in New Orleans. If just one of those things happen, the 49ers get a 1st round bye and are hosting the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. Still, the 49ers were 1 play away from beating Seattle in Seattle. With that being the case, the 49ers chose to go the route of continuing to build the overall roster for the immediate future and long haul as well. They don't see themselves as 1 player away. They see themselves as 1 play away and that they have what they need to win now but want to sustain it going forward too.

Great post - yours and so many others responding to this thread. It's looking at the bigger all-around picture for this team...I'm glad we have Baalke doing just that in executing his strategy each year. We'll see how it all plays out but I've been continuously encouraged and impressed.

Regarding your #7 point, the part in bold, you're exactly right - if you know football and you really watched the Niners and Seahawks play throughout the season last year, you know there's not much of a gap between the two (if any right now). Last year when the season ended, yes, the Seahawks were just a little better. Right now, well, let's just say I'm already looking forward to the matchup, home and away. This is not just coming from the point of view of a Niners fan - any fan (and media person) that really knows the game would agree that any so-called gap between these two teams is close right now. And, I'm sure any true Seahawks fan who knows football would agree with that. I'm getting off topic...again, we'll see how it all plays out and you've got to like the competition between these two teams and the entire NFC West for that matter.
Actually I think it is because for once the Niners are emulating the Cawks instead of the other way around. The Cawks roster has quite a few players who are considered some of the best at their positons in the NFL, who were not that prospect coming out of the NCAA. The Cawks are utilizing a strategy in which they want to expose themselves to as many different players as possible trusting their coaches to identify the keepers.

Since Peter the Cheater has been in the NFL in his current position the Cawks have more player transactions than any other team, and if memory serves it was nearly double the next closest.

I think the Niners were also searching to have back ups/rookies who are their ST's aces therefor allowing them to cut guys with nothing buy ST value like Ventrone, Osgood etc.

I think there may be a few Vets who were unexpected cuts this year. You HAVE to have young cheap talent to properly manage your cap.
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