There are 134 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

Thoughts on why Niners chose to make so many draft picks

I've read and heard about it being somewhat surprising the Niners drafted 12 players…that 12 players won't make the 53 due to their loaded roster and maybe only five or six will…that those picks not making the 53 will either be on the IR, PS, or signed away by other teams…that the Niners should have packaged some of their picks to move up and take more supposed immediate impact players in Rounds 1, 2, 3, etc., since the team has consistently been a top team these past few years and is ready to win it all now. I even wondered at first why the Niners didn't do such trading to move up considering all the picks they had.

However, in thinking about it further and considering how this team builds through the draft, it seems to make sense for them to make all 12 picks considering how they valued the vast amount of talent in this year's draft class. Not only the Niners, but the league consensus was this draft class was loaded all the way through and a lot of good, draftable talent would go undrafted (such as Skov…many had him going somewhere in the middle rounds). It seems the Niners all along went into this draft with the idea of utilizing most or all of their picks (11 became 12) considering all the talent to be had in this year's class and that the value on the early 1 & 2 Rd. talent wasn't that much greater than the value found in Rds. 3 & 4 to warrant trading away picks to move up. Then you see the Niners ending up with great value picks such as Hyde and Martin at the spots they were drafted.

In selecting all the picks they did from this year's pool, it allows them to bring in quality, young, inexpensive talent to promote a lot of competition, leverage against potential key free agent departures next offseason (i.e., Iupati, maybe Crabtree – hopefully not), "redshirt" highly-rated players that fell, increase trade options for future picks, stock up for the future and develop players that fit the Niners' style of play, and also to be prepared for any unexpected injuries or player issues (Aldon, Culliver) that seem to happen every offseason up to the start of the season.

This post may seem obvious to many here but maybe not all. I'm sure some are thinking the Niners should have utilized some of those many picks to trade up and target more players perceived as immediate "impact" players at certain positions of need (such as CB) since the roster is already loaded. I'd be curious of any thoughts?
One thing you have to remember is, just because they have the ammo to trade up, doesn't mean they can or that it's necessary.

First of all, you need to find a partner to trade up OR down with. If you have no partner, you can't move.

Secondly, it's all about value. No reason to trade up and just give picks away if the value just isn't there.

Like you mentioned, one benefit I see is competition, and that 49ers increased their odds of finding someone that will stick.
Good post OP. Before the draft, my thought was to get two or three highly touted prospects for more immediate help. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Baalke may have had the same thoughts. But if he can't find a trading partner that is willing to accept a balanced trade, then Baalke is smart not to force the issue. The route he ended up taking (12 picks) is just as good now that we see what materialized with the good value picks that bolstered the interior Oline and players that will be redshirted. Had the 49ers spent several mid rounders to move up to the middle of the first or early second round, then mostly likely some of the following are not 49ers: Hyde, MMartin, Borland, DJohnson or Lynch.

If those guys come close to their potential, we will look back on this draft 3 years from now and be glad that Baalke took the route he did. Perhaps he has identified the cornerstones of this team and knows he needs to retain them. The only way to do that is to save money in other areas using cheap labor.
I loved that they went the route they did. There is never a problem having a abundance of talent to envoke competition. IMO, if we hit on this draft, it fully redeems the debacle that was the 2012 draft. Again, it all has to play out but on paper I don't think there will be a team that has a stronger 53 than us. It really seems like Trent has found a blue print to have a lot of success without sacrificing the future. I can't wait to see this class along with the "redshirts" from last years draft. The influx of young talent should be rather impressive.
Good points. I got very tired of so many Zoners having us packaging our entire second round, with a first to jump up into the top 15 to get a top WR.

Taking 3 picks (or 3 players) and turning them into a sure thing WR, borders on insane. First your "sure thing" is anything but, sure. Wideouts selected in the first round succeed 35% of the time. So you have twice as much chance to fail with 3 draft picks than succeeding on your "sure thing".

Also with Harbaugh's "Iron sharpens iron", packaging picks leaves you with less iron to utilize....
Agreed on all points. The other thing to consider is that "this draft is deep." How many times did we hear that? And as it turns out, it was deep BUT outside of the first 20 or so picks, there was a drop-off in talent at the positions we had needs in BUT the drop off was not significant (coachable) and it was deep through rounds 5 and 6 and hell, even into the UDFA class. As a result you end up with an overlooked CB in Johnson who in other drafts may be an early 2nd round pick (and like CK in the 2nd, just needs some development/adjustment time...which we have). Also, you have to consider the flow of the draft itself. Some years you can have easy partners in the Cowboys and some years, nobody is willing to bite (although we always pwn a couple each year). And as it turned out, "value" was the theme of this draft BIG TIME and it just so happened to have been at the positions we really needed now and into the future (which is ideal). We ended up with the consensus best CB/FS, RB, C, FB (esp. for our systems)...and second best ILB (plus Skov who also is ideal for our system), plus a potential developing starting versatile and ideal H/W/S CB with immediate ST abilities, slot/deep WR, red-shirt CB & OT, Stevie Johnson (free), depth, pass rusher, return specialist, etc.

After a while it really was a drop-the-mic type of draft.
  • Giedi
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 3,932
I'm betting there will be a lot of cuts that will be trade bait at just a day before the 53 man squad is named. Parys Haralson and Cam Johnson come to mind, from last year were traded for 7th rounders. I'm pretty sure this pre-season, a lot of 3rd qtr and 4th QTR players will be showcased to get as much trade bait exposure as possible.

Some notable 7th rounders. Larry Grant, Ricky Jean Francois, Bruce Miller, Erick Heitmann and Brian Jennings.
Originally posted by OldJoe:
Good points. I got very tired of so many Zoners having us packaging our entire second round, with a first to jump up into the top 15 to get a top WR.

Taking 3 picks (or 3 players) and turning them into a sure thing WR, borders on insane. First your "sure thing" is anything but, sure. Wideouts selected in the first round succeed 35% of the time. So you have twice as much chance to fail with 3 draft picks than succeeding on your "sure thing".

Also with Harbaugh's "Iron sharpens iron", packaging picks leaves you with less iron to utilize....

I thought the success rate was 20% for both the 1st AND 2nd rounds. Either way, it's pretty poor and does anyone trust our coaching staff to develop a WR here? Really?

PS: I think 35% was for the OL.
[ Edited by NCommand on May 28, 2014 at 12:42 PM ]
Good posts. I really liked what we did after we couldn't trade up initially so nothing like creating competition top to bottom on the roster! Man the best men win & help make the 49ers an even better squad this season!
To keep the window open.

/Thread
[ Edited by Quest4six on May 28, 2014 at 12:53 PM ]
Originally posted by Quest4six:
To keep the window open.

/Thread

This. There's a lot of players that will be walking shortly, either through retirement or free agency.......Baalke was just refilling the cupboard, filling needs for the present and the future.
All those months of insane mocks...when the reality is each draft is different and Baalke's direction is virtually impossible to predict. Many were clamoring for him to trade up...he did, but not in the 1st rd. Despite what some are calling a "backward draft", he grabbed some potentially great talent.

Ward - he'll force someone out. Could be Dahl, maybe

Hyde - ditto. Could be James (partly because of Ellington, too).

Marcus Martin. He'll definitely force someone out. My guess: Snyder

Borland - think he'll force Moody or Skov out.

Thomas - He'll force someone out next year. Or, he'll simply replace Iupati.

Dontae Johnson - he could force Cook out, although I think Fangio would love to have two big CB's to play press coverage. Could be Morris or Cox, too.

Lynch - man, I dunno who he'd oust. He could be depth during Aldon's suspension, but then what.
One of the things that makes Baalke admirable is that he sticks to the plan. He doesn't say, "hey, we're drafting Odell Beckham Jr., and we're going to get him regardless of how much it takes." Instead, he says, "hey, we want Odell Beckham Jr., but we're only going to draft up for him if the price is right." Not all GM's have that sort of self control and faithfulness to their plan. Baalke, and other elite GM's, do. You also see this with the way he negotiates contracts.
Playing the odds, IMO. The more guys you get, the more chances you'll hit it big.
Just from an entertainment perspective, has there been a more fun/active GM to watch around draft time? Moving up, moving down, acquiring the most picks each year, trading current players for more, acquiring proven vets for free, the value, intrigue, pwning owners on value trades (in the draft and outside), etc. What blows my mind is with his reputation, how is he STILL able to make any moves at all anymore. If I was a GM, and I saw on caller I.D. "Trent Baalke" I'd block that caller every time!
...