No Wideout will be drafted in first round for a long time.

In the modern NFL, great receivers get drafted to s**tty teams, only to win Superbowls with their second team.

Originally posted by OldJoe:

Originally posted by English:

Reasoning from inadequate sample gives false or misleading conclusions. Baalke will draft a receiver in the first round when he thinks it provides the best value.

Mislead? Like my 16 year sample just cut off Terrell Owens (would have been inside 17).

I would love to believe we would select a WR regardless. But, why does Baalke even need to "risk it"?

How could he live down AJ #2 in short succession?

I have 35 years worth of first rounds, not sure adding pre-Walsh years would make it adequate.

Joe, it was reported by numerous sources, as well as confirmed by Trent Baalke himself, that the 49ers made an effort to trade up for Odell Beckham, Jr. in the first round of this year's draft. I don't have the link handy because I'm on my phone and just had surgery for a ruptured Achilles' tendon.

So, sorry to burst your bubble, but you're wrong homie.

Update... my gimpy ass found it anyway - LINKO

Originally posted by English:
Reasoning from inadequate sample gives false or misleading conclusions. Baalke will draft a receiver in the first round when he thinks it provides the best value.

Exactly. It all depends on where our 1st pick is. What the current team needs are and who at WR is available. The goal is not to field the best WR's but to field the best team. Whatever players best help the team win that's who you draft.

Originally posted by English:
Reasoning from inadequate sample gives false or misleading conclusions. Baalke will draft a receiver in the first round when he thinks it provides the best value.

This

/thread

Originally posted by OldJoe:

Rashaun & AJ - hit into double plays

lol those were triple plays that ended the world series in game 7...horribly blown picks...

Originally posted by NickSh49:
Joe, it was reported by numerous sources, as well as confirmed by Trent Baalke himself, that the 49ers made an effort to trade up for Odell Beckham, Jr. in the first round of this year's draft. I don't have the link handy because I'm on my phone and just had surgery for a ruptured Achilles' tendon.

So, sorry to burst your bubble, but you're wrong homie.

Update... my gimpy ass found it anyway - LINKO

Hope you get up and going soon although I know the recovery for that can be quite awhile.

Historical drafting success is utterly useless...


When T.O or Rice was taken in the draft has zero effect on whether or not a random WR in next year is going to be effective in the NFL.


People forget that draft picks primarily exist to be used to gamble on college talent being able to make the transition to the NFL, that is what they are made for. You place your best bets on the players you want ( WR or other wise) and hope it works out.

Teams are MUCH better off gambling with the controlled salary of the DRAFT, then gambling with the very expensive nature of free agents.


As Pasco said earlier, I also love the fact that this team will pick up unwanted NFL talent through trades and are not afraid of a challenging player. That was my biggest gripe with Nolan, he was afraid to coach a challenging player.

Originally posted by NickSh49:
Joe, it was reported by numerous sources, as well as confirmed by Trent Baalke himself, that the 49ers made an effort to trade up for Odell Beckham, Jr. in the first round of this year's draft. I don't have the link handy because I'm on my phone and just had surgery for a ruptured Achilles' tendon.

So, sorry to burst your bubble, but you're wrong homie.

Update... my gimpy ass found it anyway - LINKO

I'm a pedant so ... Baalke didn't confirm the 49ers tried to trade up for Beckham. Baalke confirmed that the 49ers were looking for WRs everywhere in the draft, he confirmed that they tried to trade up, and he confirmed that Beckham was a player they looked at and liked (something he could probably say about 150 players in this draft).

All of the 49ers-tried-to-trade-up-for-Beckham stuff came from "sources" ... not from Baalke himself. FWIW, I'm not sure Baalke is specifically allowed to say that the 49ers tried to take a specific player once that player is on another team without the league office considering it tampering.

Originally posted by OldJoe:

If you look hard enough you can find on this site more than a half dozen times, me predicting we will not trade up for a WR nor make a first round pick for that position.

My reasoning: While the friction of Harbaugh and Baalke were overblown by many, there still is a balance of power between the two. AJ Jenkins had to hurt Baalke's stature. I thought this would make him reluctant, very reluctant to go that route (jump up in first for WR). Since AJ we have selected 3 WRs through the draft or draft picks. And to prove my point, ALL 4TH rounders (Stevie Johnson, Ellington & Patton).
So Reason #1 the failure of AJ.

Last 15 years of WRs drafted

Bruce Ellington
Quinton Patton
A.J. Jenkins
Ronald Johnson
Kyle Williams
Michael Crabtree (Thank you Raiders!)
Josh Morgan
Jason Hill
Brandon Williams
Rasheed Marshall
Marcus Maxwell
Rashaun Woods
Derrick Hamilton
Brandon Lloyd
Arnaz Battle
Cedrick Wilson
Tai Streets
Ryan Thelwell

This is not a stellar group. It seems rational that Baalke, might have serious doubts about the ability for his scouts to find a good WR high in the draft.


Reason #2 - Batting average of picking #1 WR, including the Walsh years, pretty sad. And using some MLB vernacular.

First rounder
Jerry Rice
JJ Stokes
Rashaun Woods
Michael Crabtree
AJ Jenkins


Jerry Rice - Grand Slam
Crabtree - Double
JJ Stokes - Walk
Rashaun & AJ - hit into double plays

What are we 2 for 5? In the "can't miss" first rounder category?
How many of us wanted to package up picks and move up to get a "can't miss" first round talent?

Can't miss = 40%?
Even with Walsh's genius for finding talent?

Everyone agree?

Actually, by your logic, we should be 2 for 4. Jenkins was considered the exact opposite of a 'cant miss' WR when Baalke selected him. He was always boom or bust, and he busted. Just because he was selected at ghe end of the 1st does not automatically make him a cant miss prospect. He was a reach and everyone knew it right off the bat. Stokes and Woods were supposed to be 'cant miss' selections, and honestly, Stokes wasn't even bad, he just didn't live up to expectations considering what it took to get him. But Woods was definitely a swing and a miss.