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No Wideout will be drafted in first round for a long time.

If you look hard enough you can find on this site more than a half dozen times, me predicting we will not trade up for a WR nor make a first round pick for that position.

My reasoning: While the friction of Harbaugh and Baalke were overblown by many, there still is a balance of power between the two. AJ Jenkins had to hurt Baalke's stature. I thought this would make him reluctant, very reluctant to go that route (jump up in first for WR). Since AJ we have selected 3 WRs through the draft or draft picks. And to prove my point, ALL 4TH rounders (Stevie Johnson, Ellington & Patton).
So Reason #1 the failure of AJ.

Last 15 years of WRs drafted

Bruce Ellington
Quinton Patton
A.J. Jenkins
Ronald Johnson
Kyle Williams
Michael Crabtree (Thank you Raiders!)
Josh Morgan
Jason Hill
Brandon Williams
Rasheed Marshall
Marcus Maxwell
Rashaun Woods
Derrick Hamilton
Brandon Lloyd
Arnaz Battle
Cedrick Wilson
Tai Streets
Ryan Thelwell

This is not a stellar group. It seems rational that Baalke, might have serious doubts about the ability for his scouts to find a good WR high in the draft.


Reason #2 - Batting average of picking #1 WR, including the Walsh years, pretty sad. And using some MLB vernacular.

First rounder
Jerry Rice
JJ Stokes
Rashaun Woods
Michael Crabtree
AJ Jenkins


Jerry Rice - Grand Slam
Crabtree - Double
JJ Stokes - Walk
Rashaun & AJ - hit into double plays

What are we 2 for 5? In the "can't miss" first rounder category?
How many of us wanted to package up picks and move up to get a "can't miss" first round talent?

Can't miss = 40%?
Even with Walsh's genius for finding talent?

Everyone agree?
[ Edited by OldJoe on May 22, 2014 at 2:22 PM ]
Not to mention there is ONLY a 20% success rate of WR's taken in the first 2 rounds. So the odds are better to steal proven NFL commodities like Boldin and Johnson. And to be honest, would you want anyone on our coaching staff coaching up and developing first and second round talent if you were Baalke? "Screw that...Boldin for a 6th and Johnson for a 4th! I'll get those picks back immediately anyhow...Done. Now don't eff it up Harbaugh!"
Reasoning from inadequate sample gives false or misleading conclusions. Baalke will draft a receiver in the first round when he thinks it provides the best value.
  • Giedi
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Who was throwing to the WR's? Also who was coaching the QB's and the WR's. Those also factor into whether a WR *fits* into a system or doesn't and is successful in his career or not. The point being is that 40% success rate might be good enough if you are looking at a Sammy Watkins or a Mike Evans that have the odds in their favor because of the perceived athletic talent. I mean if you can run two times faster than all the WR's and jump higher and are stronger than pretty much the entire WR draft class, then you have the odds higher in your favor. Not 100%, I agree, but good enough for somebody like our front office to take a chance at if they had the opportunity.

Having said that, I think WR's will never be drafted high in our system for other reasons, one is because we use the TE's more and the RB's more. This coaching staff also values defense over offense. For those two reasons, I think WR's won't be drafted high unless we land a number 1 pick that is in the top 10 in the draft because the previous year we traded with a bottom feeder and hit the lotto, so to speak.
Nice post...I agree, there are too many available to risk using a first rounder on them. Personally unless there is a can't miss QB (ie Luck, Manning), give me a OL or DL, those guys usually have a 10-12 year career and can be cornstones of the franchise.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by Niners816:
Nice post...I agree, there are too many available to risk using a first rounder on them. Personally unless there is a can't miss QB (ie Luck, Manning), give me a OL or DL, those guys usually have a 10-12 year career and can be cornstones of the franchise.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Not to mention there is ONLY a 20% success rate of WR's taken in the first 2 rounds. So the odds are better to steal proven NFL commodities like Boldin and Johnson. And to be honest, would you want anyone on our coaching staff coaching up and developing first and second round talent if you were Baalke? "Screw that...Boldin for a 6th and Johnson for a 4th! I'll get those picks back immediately anyhow...Done. Now don't eff it up Harbaugh!"

Technically Johnson was free thanks to Trader Baalke
http://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/1236-straight-rabbits-disturbing-trend-first-rounds-nfl-drafts/


Another angle broken down nicely here on the webzone.
[ Edited by T-9ers on May 22, 2014 at 2:41 PM ]
49ers FO lost their mojo for drafting receivers when they made the mistake of drafting A J Jenkins. Or at least he didn't pan out the way they had envisioned.
Originally posted by kentc1978:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Not to mention there is ONLY a 20% success rate of WR's taken in the first 2 rounds. So the odds are better to steal proven NFL commodities like Boldin and Johnson. And to be honest, would you want anyone on our coaching staff coaching up and developing first and second round talent if you were Baalke? "Screw that...Boldin for a 6th and Johnson for a 4th! I'll get those picks back immediately anyhow...Done. Now don't eff it up Harbaugh!"

Technically Johnson was free thanks to Trader Baalke

LOL...true! And the way we utilize a 3rd receiver, there is no way we end up giving a 3rd! So you're right...free!
As long as Baalke can trade for proven WRs using mid round picks (SJ, Boldin) he may never draft a WR with a top pick, ever.
Originally posted by kentc1978:
Technically Johnson was free thanks to Trader Baalke

Originally posted by NCommand:
LOL...true! And the way we utilize a 3rd receiver, there is no way we end up giving a 3rd! So you're right...free!

So I lose a talking point on a technicality?
Originally posted by English:
Reasoning from inadequate sample gives false or misleading conclusions. Baalke will draft a receiver in the first round when he thinks it provides the best value.

Mislead? Like my 16 year sample just cut off Terrell Owens (would have been inside 17).

I would love to believe we would select a WR regardless. But, why does Baalke even need to "risk it"?

How could he live down AJ #2 in short succession?

I have 35 years worth of first rounds, not sure adding pre-Walsh years would make it adequate.
[ Edited by OldJoe on May 22, 2014 at 3:04 PM ]
I love the way we draft WRs. Anquan from Ravens and Stevie for Fubbalo. That is my kind of draft. As for guys taken in 4th rounds, good on them and we can always find a gem. But drafting a WR in the first rd? Why in the world would we want to take a 20% chance on that? Ok, I get the GOAT, jerry rice thing, but aside from him, no thanks. Let everybody else make the draft screw-ups, let their guy after 4-6 yrs drift over to us for $3 or $6 mil and no risk. (assuming we did due diligence and Med exam ok). But taking a whack at them in the first round? no thanks.
anything prior to baalke taking the gm job is irrelevant. as another poster said, baalke will take one in the 1st again when he deems a wr to be BPA.