Pre-Camp 53 Roster Prediction

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Jim,
I believe I read that Ian Williams will be ready for the regular season. I'd put him on the roster instead of Skov. Also, Seymour or Bykowski could take the swing tackle position from J. Martin. Seymour has been playing tackle, not guard. I think the 53 but inactive list is right for Okoye.

I think Williams being ready for week 1 is wishful thinking. No need to rush him back if Dial is looking as good in camp as we keep hearing. I agree with you on Bykowski. I would love to see him take the spot from Martin. But I think Martin gets the nod due to the fact that he can fill in at Guard if needed.

dbl

Originally posted by NCommand:
Here ya go. Starters (bolded) may change throughout preseason. I expect a few surprises for sure and will do my best to edit as we go.

QB (2)
Colin Kaepernick
Josh Johnson

Rationale: Blaine Gabbert blows and we're forced to eat his $2M and 6th rounder. The only thing that may keep him on the 53 is his guaranteed salary. Josh Johnson fits our system much better and we don't need to change the entire scheme should CK go down. He could be a backup for years to CK without argument/displeasure.

RB (3)
Frank Gore
Carlos Hyde
LaMichael James

Rationale: The loss of Kendall Hunter to I.R. is a heartbreaker for a variety of reasons but it does ensures LaMichael makes the team and it also means he'll probably get the majority of the snaps and reps at both the change-of-pace #3 RB and as a P/KR once the games start. That said, Ellington appears poised to steal at least the PR duties from him as well. Marcus Lattimore is getting close to going on I.R. (designation for return this year). Hampton still has a chance to earn a #4 role but he's not off to a good start. We will pound the rock all day with Gore and Hyde and spell them with James. Carrying only 3 RB's means we can keep an extra OL or DL or ST WR.

FB (1)
Bruce Miller

Rationale: Derek Carrier is the new H-back and can double as a FB should Miller go down.

TE (3)
Vernon Davis
Vance McDonald
Derek Carrier (H-Back)

Rationale: Derek Carrier hits his stride and makes the team in the old Delanie Walker, H-back role. I've already seen him crack-block down in the Ravens game the same way Walker made a name against Suh in Detroit. We don't need Celek anymore as an OT can be that extra OL as needed like how we used Kilgore in this fashion last year in the jumbo packages.

WR (6)
Michael Crabtree (X)
Anquan Boldin (Z)
Stevie Johnson (Y)
Brandon Lloyd (X,Y,Z)
Quinton Patton (X,Y,Z)
Bruce Ellington (Y & P/KR)

Rationale: Kassim's loss as the second best gunner on ST is not a good thing (he downed another punt at the 1 yard line) but it appears we'll be trading that off for additional 3 and 4-WR sets. Now, who is going to step up as the #1 or #2 gunner on the coverage units? That said, it would not surprise me one bit of Osgood made the team again over Lloyd as this coaching staff really seems invested in growing both Patton and Ellington in the 4th spot.

OT (3)
Joe Staley
Anthony Davis
Jonathan Martin (OT & G)

Rationale: Jonathan Martin & Carter Bykowski have, literally, been getting pancaked so far during practice but both played well in the Ravens game (as did Ryan Seymour). Staley/Davis seem to battle injuries every year so Martin (NFL experience and versatility) better be ready IF he gets his full strength back and makes this team! We recently brought in T/G Michael Philipp and even T/G Ryan Seymour is taking snaps at the swing-T position.

OG (3)
Mike Iupati
Joe Looney
Ryan Seymour (G & T)

Rationale: Boone is being a b!tch and holding out but the good news is that Looney seems to be growing each week into a good starter with upside. Boone's holdout means we do have to downgrade to T with either Martin or Seymour have time to craft out their roles effectively. C Marcus Martin can also play G as well. Seymour was being talked up late last season and the tape is showing he played T very well and he also has the ability to play G and C (primary positions). He's a keeper for his versatility and upside. The coaches love old, washed up veterans who are experienced in our system so we could end up keeping Adam Snyder (G & T) at the expense of someone.

C (2)
Daniel Kilgore
Marcus Martin (C & OG)

Rationale: After watching the tape, there are strength concerns (none mentally) on Kilgore for me. So look to Martin to start getting some snaps at C over these next few preseason games. Either way, he is being groomed to play both C and G. Versatility remains the theme for the OL, as always.

DE (5)
Justin Smith
Ray McDonald
'Tank' Carradine
Quinton Dial (LDE & NT)
Lawrence Okoye

Rationale: Dobbs played very well last year and keeping only 3 RB's could mean we add Dobbs here instead of a ST WR or another OL. But Okoye's raw ability and vast improvement at DE and his ability to play on ST coverage units gets him a shot at the 53 this year (probably not the active 46 though). Even if we do keep Dobbs, who's oft-injured, he's going to be inactive most likely.

NT (2)
Ian Williams
Tony-Jerod Eddie (DE & NT)

Rationale: Ian Williams is back and healthy and with plenty of time to recapture his starting spot. Dial (who's been tearing up preseason esp. at LDE and getting NT reps) and a versatile TJE (DE & NT) get additional reps at NT as well. Ideally, Williams comes back full strength and reclaims the starting NT spot and we rotate in he and Dial and TJE. Dial can now go back to focusing on LDE which is his more natural spot.

OLB (5)
Ahmad Brooks
Aldon Smith
Dan Skuta
Corey Lemonier
Aaron Lynch

Rationale: With Carradine in the fold and Lemonier looking to "arrow up" in year 2, Lynch is going to add another dimension of pass rush ability and depth on a rotating front 7. Like Aldon and Lemonier before him, he'll only be worked in on some pass rush downs giving Aldon/Brooks a break and esp. if Aldon gets suspended for X-number of games. He'll also be on ST.

ILB (3)
Patrick Willis
Michael Wilhoite
Chris Borland
Blake Costanzo

Rationale: When Bowman makes it back to full strength, there is going to be a tough cut somewhere. Blake adds a special element to the ST coverage units but there are no real surprises here. Moody could fit in here and play a key hybrid S/LB role on passing downs in the nickle should the team go down that road and he's a quality ST coverage unit player as well (like Costanzo). Skov should head to the PS and Borland has played decent thus far but will not threaten Wilhoite at this stage.

CB (7)
Chris Culliver (#1)
Tramaine Brock (#2)
Jimmie Ward (#3 Nickle/Dime/Slot/FS)
Perrish Cox (#4 Nickle/Dime/ST)(Backs up Brock)
Chris Cook (#5 Nickle/Dime)(Backs up Culliver)
Darryl Morris (#1 Slot/ST)
Dontae Johnson (Backs up both Brock/Culliver)

Rationale: The good news is we've gotten younger, faster, taller, more athletic and certainly more aggressive/physical. We carried 10 DB's in the NFCCG. Here, we carry 11 total d/t the growth/play of Johnson and Baalke learning from letting Cooper go last year to the Chiefs. Baalke/Donatell/Fangio appear to want to play much more press with a single-high safety (Reid) and keep Bethea in and around the box in run support. We can expect both press and off-coverage with Brock and Culliver while being backed up by Cook and Johnson (best in press right now while learning all the off coverage schemes as well). Morris is pushing Ward hard for the slot-role but also stays on as a ST gunner ace and is now getting work as an outside CB (like Cox). Cox makes the team as a slot and outside CB and is our second returner on kick offs next to James/Ellington.

S (4)
Eric Reid
Antoine Bethea
CJ Spillman
Raymond Ventrone

Rationale: No surprises here. The outside shot here is L.J. McCray or D.J. Campbell d/t their P/KR abilities and upside at the S position. McCray can also play the nickle ala Ward. He has the license to beat out either Spillman or Ventrone who are top-notch ST-only players. Dahl should be cut as he's a solid ST player and below-average backup S and counts $1,283,333 against the cap.

ST (3)
Phil Dawson
Andy Lee
Kevin McDermott

Welcome back Ian Williams. Quite a few changes after the first preseason game so have a look...

Nice job, NC. Couple changed I'd make:

Moody over Costanzo at ILB. Moody is also a contributor on ST, and a better ILB.

Okoye is not ready to make an NFL team, yet. IMHO. Needs another year on the PS. I'd keep Osgood over Okoye.

Dahl over Ventrone. Again, their ST value is about equal, and Dahl is the more polished, experienced safety.

I'm totally with you on Johnson as the backup QB.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Nice job, NC. Couple changed I'd make:

Moody over Costanzo at ILB. Moody is also a contributor on ST, and a better ILB.

Okoye is not ready to make an NFL team, yet. IMHO. Needs another year on the PS. I'd keep Osgood over Okoye.

Dahl over Ventrone. Again, their ST value is about equal, and Dahl is the more polished, experienced safety.

I'm totally with you on Johnson as the backup QB.

I agree with Moody.

The problem with Okoye is if we dont keep him he wont last on our PS.

Ventrone and Dahl are NOT equal in terms of ST value. I would take Ventrone over him all day.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Nice job, NC. Couple changed I'd make:

Moody over Costanzo at ILB. Moody is also a contributor on ST, and a better ILB.

Okoye is not ready to make an NFL team, yet. IMHO. Needs another year on the PS. I'd keep Osgood over Okoye.

Dahl over Ventrone. Again, their ST value is about equal, and Dahl is the more polished, experienced safety.

I'm totally with you on Johnson as the backup QB.

Nice feedback! I struggle so much with Lloyd and Osgood. Osgood is just too damn good to cut. It sounds like he has been making some plays at WR as well (50 yard TD). We've used him as an emergency WR and he did well for us.

The ILB position is messing me up as is the S position. I'm praying one of the younger S's shows a lot of potential as a S "and" ST's and makes the Dahl-Ventrone topic moot. Dahl is very expensive for us too. As to Moody, I go back and forth on that one daily. Are we really going to gut all of our ST aces? Remember the last time that happened?

Tough tough calls here.

Best case scenario is that Moody continues to play well and get's snaps with the 1's and shine as a backup and on ST's and Blake Costanzo is cut. LJ McCray or Campbell step up as a S and ST ace and Ventrone is cut. This is especially important b/c neither Spillman nor Ventrone can play S at all. We'd have to slide Ward back and insert Morris in the slot.

As to Okoye, they may use this current injury to I.R. him for one more year but I agree that if we don't keep him on the 53, someone is going to take him and give him some playing time and finish the development we started and invested in him. He's already showing ability to me, that Dobbs just doesn't have. And I like Dobbs (although ,oft-injured). I'm glad Okoye is making this harder for us.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Here ya go. Starters (bolded) may change throughout preseason. I expect a few surprises for sure and will do my best to edit as we go.

QB (2)
Colin Kaepernick
Josh Johnson

Rationale: Blaine Gabbert blows and we're forced to eat his $2M and 6th rounder. The only thing that may keep him on the 53 is his guaranteed salary. Josh Johnson fits our system much better and we don't need to change the entire scheme should CK go down. He could be a backup for years to CK without argument/displeasure/salary cap issues.

RB (3)
Frank Gore
Carlos Hyde
LaMichael James

Rationale: The loss of Kendall Hunter to I.R. is a heartbreaker for a variety of reasons but it does ensures LaMichael makes the team and it also means he'll probably get the majority of the snaps and reps at both the change-of-pace #3 RB and as a P/KR once the games start. That said, Ellington appears poised to steal at least the PR duties from him. Marcus Lattimore is getting close to going on I.R. (designation for return this year). Hampton still has a chance to earn a #4 role but he's not off to a good start. We will pound the rock all day with Gore and Hyde and spell them with James. Carrying only 3 RB's means we can keep an extra OL, DL or ST ace.

FB (1)
Bruce Miller

Rationale: Derek Carrier is the new H-back and can double as a FB should Miller go down.

TE (3)
Vernon Davis
Vance McDonald
Derek Carrier (H-Back)

Rationale: Derek Carrier hits his stride and makes the team in the old Delanie Walker, H-back role. I've already seen him crack-block down in the Ravens game the same way Walker made a name against Suh in Detroit. We don't need Celek anymore as an OT can be that extra OL as needed like how we used Kilgore in this fashion last year in the jumbo packages.

WR (6)
Michael Crabtree (X)
Anquan Boldin (Z)
Stevie Johnson (Y)
Quinton Patton (X,Y,Z)
Bruce Ellington (Y & P/KR)
Kassim Osgood (ST/WR)

Rationale: This one I go back and forth on daily. At the end of the day, in this offensive philosophy, who is going to see more snaps...the 4th WR or the #1 ST gunner? Osgood downed another punt at the 1 yard line and he's made some plays at WR (50 yard TD) this preseason. We used him as an emergency WR last year and he did well. And the bottom line is, this team NEEDS to develop both Patton and Ellington and Ellington needs to be active d/t his return abilities. Therefore, with his age, minor injuries, his inability to block and be physical down the field (like Stevie Johnson just showed) or his lack of desire to give 100% effort on every ball that isn't perfectly thrown, Lloyd doesn't make the team but we keep him on speed dial. Ellington is already being used as a primary returner (looks great) and as a utility receiver in the mold of Harvin (i.e. lines up everywhere including out of the backfield).

OT (3)
Joe Staley (LT)
Anthony Davis (RT)
Jonathan Martin (OT & G)

Rationale: Jonathan Martin & Carter Bykowski have, literally, been getting pancaked so far during practice but both played well in the Ravens game (as did Ryan Seymour) which was a big task (pun intended). Staley/Davis seem to battle injuries every year so Martin (NFL experience and versatility) better be ready IF he gets his full strength back and makes this team like I think he should! We recently brought in T/G Michael Philipp and even T/G Ryan Seymour is taking snaps at the swing-T position as well (looked great).

OG (3)
Mike Iupati (LG)
Joe Looney (RG)
Ryan Seymour (G & T)

Rationale: Boone is being a b!tch and holding out but the good news is that Looney seems to be growing each week into a good starter with upside. HIs film worked showed a lot of good things and he graded out as the second best OL just behind Staley. Boone's holdout means we do have to downgrade to T with either Martin or Seymour but both have time to craft out their swing-T roles effectively. C Marcus Martin can also play G as well (learning). Seymour was being talked up late last season and the tape is showing he played T very well and he also has the ability to play G and C (his two primary positions). He's a keeper for his versatility and upside. The coaches love old, washed up veterans who are experienced in our system so we could end up keeping Adam Snyder (G & T) at the expense of someone but that would be a mistake IMHO (see also, NFCCG).

C (2)
Daniel Kilgore
Marcus Martin (C & OG)

Rationale: After watching the film, there are strength concerns (none mentally) on Kilgore for me. So look to Martin to start getting some snaps at C over these next few preseason games. Either way, he is being groomed to play both C and G. Versatility remains the theme for the OL, as always.

DE (5)
Justin Smith (RDE)
Ray McDonald (LDE)
'Tank' Carradine (RDE)
Quinton Dial (LDE & NT)
Lawrence Okoye (RDE)

Rationale: Dobbs played very well last year and keeping only 3 RB's could mean we add Dobbs here instead of a ST WR or another OL. But Okoye's raw ability and vast improvement at DE and his ability to play on ST coverage units (wedge buster) gets him a shot at the 53 this year (probably not the active 46 though). Even if we do keep Dobbs over Okoye, who's oft-injured, he's going to be inactive most likely anyhow so you might as well keep the player with the most upside. Both have been nicked up so far.

NT (2)
Ian Williams
Tony-Jerod Eddie (DE & NT)

Rationale: Ian Williams is back and healthy and with plenty of time to recapture his starting spot. Dial (who's been tearing up preseason esp. at LDE and getting NT reps) and a versatile TJE (DE & NT) will get additional reps at NT as well. Ideally, Williams comes back full strength and reclaims the starting NT spot and we rotate in he and Dial and TJE. Dial can now go back to focusing on LDE which is his more natural spot. Health is a concern here, no doubt. If this team gets abused inside again, we do have the personnel to switch to a 4-man DL at any time and clog up that middle with inside pass rushers such as Tank and Williams.

OLB (5)
Ahmad Brooks (SAM)
Aldon Smith (WILL)
Dan Skuta (WILL)
Corey Lemonier (SAM/WILL)
Aaron Lynch (WILL)

Rationale: With Carradine in the fold and Lemonier looking to "arrow up" in year 2, Lynch is going to add another dimension of pass rush ability and depth on a rotating front 7. But probably not this year. Chances are he'll be inactive most of the year but his potential is huge and like Okoye and so many more before him, just needs a year to train, diet, work out and study. I doubt Baalke wants to risk putting him on the PS. When/if active, like Aldon and Lemonier before him, he'll only be worked in on some pass rush downs giving Aldon/Brooks a break and esp. if Aldon gets suspended for X-number of games. He'll also be a candidate for ST.

ILB (4)
Patrick Willis (MIKE)
Michael Wilhoite (TED)
Chris Borland (TED)
Nick Moody (MIKE)

Rationale: When Bowman makes it back to full strength, there is going to be a tough cut somewhere. Blake Costanzo has been put on I.R. and essentially, is replaced by both Borland and Moody who are excellent ST players as well and both can play ILB. Moody could fit in here and play a key hybrid S/LB role on passing downs in the nickle should the team go down that road. Skov should head to the PS and Borland has played decent thus far but will not threaten Wilhoite at this stage but will be an ace on ST coverage units making up for the loss of Costanzo.

CB (7)
Chris Culliver (LCB)
Tramaine Brock (RCB)
Jimmie Ward (#3 Nickle/Dime/Slot/FS)
Perrish Cox (#4 Nickle/Dime/ST)(Backs up Brock)
Chris Cook (#5 Nickle/Dime)(Backs up Culliver)
Darryl Morris (#1 Slot/ST)
Dontae Johnson (Backs up both Brock/Culliver)

Rationale: The good news is we've gotten younger, faster, taller, more athletic and certainly more aggressive/physical. We carried 10 DB's in the NFCCG. Here, we carry 11 total d/t the growth/play of Johnson and Baalke learning from letting Cooper go last year to the Chiefs. Baalke/Donatell/Fangio appear to want to play more press with a single-high safety (Reid) and keep Bethea in and around the box in run support. We can expect both press and off-coverage with Brock and Culliver while being backed up by Cook and Johnson (best in press right now while learning all the off coverage schemes as well). Morris is pushing Ward hard for the slot-role but also stays on as a #2 ST gunner and is now getting work as an outside CB (like Cox). Cox makes the team as a slot and outside CB and is our second returner on kick offs next to James/Ellington.

S (4)
Eric Reid
Antoine Bethea
CJ Spillman
Raymond Ventrone

Rationale: No surprises here. The outside shot here (and we need this badly IMHO) is L.J. McCray or D.J. Campbell d/t their P/KR abilities and upside at the S position. McCray can also play the nickle ala Ward. They both have the license to beat out either Spillman or Ventrone who are top-notch ST-only players. Dahl should be cut as he's a solid ST player and below-average backup S and counts $1,283,333 against the cap.

ST (3)
Phil Dawson
Andy Lee
Kevin McDermott

Alright NT. After the I.R.'s and additional thoughts, here you go. What we REALLY need now is one of the young S's to shine and beat out either Spillman or Ventrone badly. This way if there was an injury, Ward wouldn't have to leave his slot position and we slide Morris inside. The rest seems pretty locked down save for additional injuries and a few players that are in the balance of the 53. But certainly, this 53 is shaping into form!

Originally posted by JimHarbaugh:

I agree with Moody.

The problem with Okoye is if we dont keep him he wont last on our PS.

Ventrone and Dahl are NOT equal in terms of ST value. I would take Ventrone over him all day.

They may not play with equal aggression, and have different assignments on ST, but I would argue Dahl is equally valuable. He's not just a coverage guy, he's got specific assignments on the FG unit and punt team.

It would be difficult to decide between them.

^^^ McCray may end up making both Dahl and Ventrone expendable. Check out my film review of his play vs. the Ravens.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/178750-special-teams-2014/page10/

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by JimHarbaugh:
I agree with Moody.

The problem with Okoye is if we dont keep him he wont last on our PS.

Ventrone and Dahl are NOT equal in terms of ST value. I would take Ventrone over him all day.

They may not play with equal aggression, and have different assignments on ST, but I would argue Dahl is equally valuable. He's not just a coverage guy, he's got specific assignments on the FG unit and punt team.

It would be difficult to decide between them.

And Ventrone is the Punter Protector which was a huge reason why he stuck around last year.

Originally posted by JimHarbaugh:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by JimHarbaugh:
I agree with Moody.

The problem with Okoye is if we dont keep him he wont last on our PS.

Ventrone and Dahl are NOT equal in terms of ST value. I would take Ventrone over him all day.

They may not play with equal aggression, and have different assignments on ST, but I would argue Dahl is equally valuable. He's not just a coverage guy, he's got specific assignments on the FG unit and punt team.

It would be difficult to decide between them.

And Ventrone is the Punter Protector which was a huge reason why he stuck around last year.

Even though Ventrone doesn't play Safety regularly, I would take him at $855K over Dahl at $1.2M. May not be a big difference, but trust me the team will be looking to save cap room. I can see Spillman as a cap cut, because he would save $1.225M, but I rather keep CJ, he is a decent safety.

Dahl seems garbage IMO on D, and thus makes sense to keep Ventrone, since I believe he is superior to Dahl on STs,

Same way for Osgood over Lloyd. Money could play a huge factor, one costs $590K, other $1.05M, a big difference.

BTW Costanzo on IR makes some sense, if he leaves via FA for a multi year deal, then we could end up with a comp pick again. Or since we hold his rights, we can give him a new deal in March when SB is over.

For those saying a guy like Josh Johnson should get a extension, it can't happen. Unless the new CBA has changed, you can't extend a veteran minimum salary benefit guy in season. Only players on 1 yr deals who can be extended are either, entering last yr of deal, or make over minimum.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Alright NT. After the I.R.'s and additional thoughts, here you go. What we REALLY need now is one of the young S's to shine and beat out either Spillman or Ventrone badly. This way if there was an injury, Ward wouldn't have to leave his slot position and we slide Morris inside. The rest seems pretty locked down save for additional injuries and a few players that are in the balance of the 53. But certainly, this 53 is shaping into form!

Nice job, but I don't see Seymour beating out Snyder, and I can't imagine cutting Dobbs for Okoye.

Snyder has a ton of experience everywhere on the line.
I think Dobbs is currently the first man on the depth chart after our starters, and Okoye is injured again (common thing to happen to fish out of water in any sport).

Originally posted by BrianGO:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Alright NT. After the I.R.'s and additional thoughts, here you go. What we REALLY need now is one of the young S's to shine and beat out either Spillman or Ventrone badly. This way if there was an injury, Ward wouldn't have to leave his slot position and we slide Morris inside. The rest seems pretty locked down save for additional injuries and a few players that are in the balance of the 53. But certainly, this 53 is shaping into form!

Nice job, but I don't see Seymour beating out Snyder, and I can't imagine cutting Dobbs for Okoye.

Snyder has a ton of experience everywhere on the line.
I think Dobbs is currently the first man on the depth chart after our starters, and Okoye is injured again (common thing to happen to fish out of water in any sport).

Thanks bro. I actually agree with you on both accounts (overall)...right now, I'm basing my 53 on camp reports and play up to and through the Ravens game (not the past). And right now, Seymour can play his two natural positions (C and G) and played very well at RT in the Ravens game and Snyder just blows (blew) at everything. Period. Also, both Okoye and Dobbs had ankle injuries (Okoye's is much worse though). But in terms of play, after reviewing both players film very closely, it wasn't even close...Okoye was clearly the better player this game and has a much much higher ceiling and adds an element Dobbs does not...ability to collapse the pocket and add QB pressures.

Keep in mind I'll update as we go based on injuries, additional camp reports and then esp. after film reviews of the preseason games; just wanted to explain my approach.

How is your 53 coming along? The more I do this the better I feel about our 53 and esp. the backups! It's starting to become more and more clear...

If Lloyd doesn't show he can be a valuable target, I'd rather we kept Osgood and gave Patton & Ellington a shot at the #4 WR ....we need to keep our ST strong

Originally posted by NeeJ49er:
If Lloyd doesn't show he can be a valuable target, I'd rather we kept Osgood and gave Patton & Ellington a shot at the #4 WR ....we need to keep our ST strong

100% agree. The philosophy will determine the amount of snaps the #4 gets. And Osgood is by far, our best ST ace. And he's "serviceable" as a WR if needed (and hopefully he's not needed again now with Patton and Ellington as the #4 and #5).