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OUR PASSING GAME---ANOTHER LOOK

  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,087
Originally posted by buck:
Here is a breakdown for 1994.



Buck, your a sick puppy.
[ Edited by mayo49 on Apr 4, 2014 at 9:01 AM ]
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,059
Originally posted by mayo49:
Buck, your a sick puppy.

Thanks, hmmm I guess.


Originally posted by buck:
Here is a breakdown for 1994.


What I always loved about 1994 was that our #4 WR mccaffery three years later started a string of three straight 1000 yard seasons and also had a 100 catch season to his credit.
Originally posted by Niners816:
Originally posted by NCommand:
We have all the tools we've needed from day 1. Even McDonald is excellent at finidng the soft zones like a traditional WCO TE. And can someone seriously justify NOT using Gore, Hunter and James in the passing game as not only a huge RAC benefit in open space but also one that would help CK get into an early rhythm in the passing game? Make the defense defend the entire field...force them out of 8-9 in the box on first downs?

I do want to note that some of this is on coaching and teaching CK as well. We seem to install the offensive incrementally. CK right now, clearly has tunnel vision and doesn't always seem to even know where his outlets are. For instance, 13:40 of 3Q. Patton starts out in the X and slants immediately to the right side of the field across the formation. Gore flares out to the right side of the field behind Patton, wide open. CK ignores both and is forced left and hits Crabtree down field in double coverage. Patton's man leaves him following CK's downfield eyes to the left and makes the tackle on Crabtree immedaitely coming all the way across the field to the strong side. It worked...BUT Gore was wide open on the right side of the field WITH a blocker in front with only 1 defender on that side of the field (some 20 yards down field). In short, if he hits Gore here, that's a TD.

You brought up a good point about primary, secondary and third rec per game. I know making my % charts and looking at buck's table, 33-35% to the primary just seems like a lot. Especially when you don't have the spread like the '94 squad did. Again what is so frustrating is that sort of reliance on one guy should open up others, and based on your breakdown it seems that it in fact is opening the flats and backs out of the backfield. It's just time to start taking advantage of this. The results are gonna be stunning, increase in comp%, qb rating and a bigger spread in reception distribution.

Oh for sure. I liked the game plan to attack Seattle on the edges with CK exposing them and also with big scrambles b/c of all the intermediate+ go-routes we run. Once CK got past the first wave (DL and the spy), he was off and running for huge gains. In short, we were stretching their defense out (and we had good blocking down field). This clearly, was by design. If they continued to rush their DE's hard (and they did), CK would side-step and be off and running.

It was that second half where I feel our game planning failed miserably, the RZ offense and esp. first down calls. Seattle adjusted and we didn't exploit them for it. Coaching, IMHO, has cost us 3 straight Superbowls. But that's another thread. LOL.

Hopefully, the short and outlet game will be the next wave of installments in this offense (fingers crossed). If we get Lattimore, Gore, Hunter and James heavily involved in the offense playing off our play action and intermediate+ "go route" designs, they are going to be impossible to stop for a defense. Why? 1) Good defenses already have to use a LB or S to "spy" CK. Now you have one less defender in coverage which means somebody is going to have, literally, nobody covering them. 2) We tend to run a ton of AR1 and 2's and primary reads where these routes alone "stretch the field" vertically a good 10-20 yards. This means there is a ton of space between the DL and first wave of receivers (an area we can exploit with RB/FB's and soft-zone TE's) and 3) Like any receiver, the more they get their hands on the ball, the better they'll get and RB's, by nature, are built to make at least the first guy miss and like with CK, if he gets past that first defender, he's off and running; couple THAT concept with our tremendous big-bodied downfield blockers and the defense will be forced to pick it's poison. If they do, we can destroy them again in the power running game with less men in the box on a simple audible at the LOS.

But this coaching staff has a lot to learn re: first down production and attacking obvious defensive weakness and also, adjusting to the defenses adjustments and attacking new areas. We fail at chess, not talent.
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 4, 2014 at 9:30 AM ]
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,059
Here are the numbers for the top 4 receivers in 1994, 2013, 2012, and 2011.

The numbers for 1994 and 2013 seem remarkably similar.

edit: The Gore-moss tie in 2012 makes the numbers for 2012 similar to 1994 and 2013.


I need to redo the charts for 2011 and 2012. I will correct them in a couple of minutes.

There was only a problem with the 2012 chart. Both Gore and Moss had 28 receptions.
So, I redid 2012 and included both Gore and Moss--a tie for the 4th receiver.



[ Edited by buck on Apr 4, 2014 at 9:56 AM ]
^^^ That's 268 passes in '94 compared to 181 in '13.

'94 clearly used a primary receiver (duh) first and then the RB's and a nice even amount for the TE and secondary WR. Given the 87 more passes, obviously, they used the short game (RB) and primary target (WR) to soften up the defense and then exploited them with the secondary WR, TE and probably the FB as needed as well.
Here are our remaining title teams splits:

1981

WR 1- 25.9%
WR 2- 18.1%
FB 1- 15.5%
TE 1- 11.3%
HB 1- 8.2%
HB 2- 8.2%

Top 4 production= 70.8%

1984

FB 1- 22.8%
WR 1- 16.7%
TE 1- 13.1%
WR 2- 12.8%
HB 1- 9.0%
TE 2- 7.4%

Top 4 production= 65.4%

1988

HB 1- 25.8%
WR 1- 21.8%
FB 1- 14.3%
WR 2- 11.3%
TE 1- 5.5%
TE 2- 4.8%
WR 3- 4.8%

Top 4 production= 73.3%

1989

WR 1- 24.2%
FB 1- 21.5%
WR 2- 17.7%
HB 1- 14.5%
TE 1- 11.8%

Top 4 production= 77.9%

The 80's title teams seemed to rely on the number 1 option right around 25% of the time. They also seem to be consistent in having a nice spread out attack as far as catches go.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,059
Originally posted by NCommand:
^^^ That's 268 passes in '94 compared to 181 in '13.

'94 clearly used a primary receiver (duh) first and then the RB's and a nice even amount for the TE and secondary WR. Given the 87 more passes, obviously, they used the short game (RB) and primary target (WR) to soften up the defense and then exploited them with the secondary WR, TE and probably the FB as needed as well.



duh

The offenses in 2013 and 1994 were different.

Harbaugh-Roman led teams do not throw the ball as often as the teams led by Walsh.
Harbaugh-Roman do not run a typical WCO or perhaps, they do not even run a WCO.


The reception and yardage % of the top 4 receivers were strikingly similar.

I did not expect that.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 4, 2014 at 10:26 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Oh for sure. I liked the game plan to attack Seattle on the edges with CK exposing them and also with big scrambles b/c of all the intermediate+ go-routes we run. Once CK got past the first wave (DL and the spy), he was off and running for huge gains. In short, we were stretching their defense out (and we had good blocking down field). This clearly, was by design. If they continued to rush their DE's hard (and they did), CK would side-step and be off and running.

It was that second half where I feel our game planning failed miserably, the RZ offense and esp. first down calls. Seattle adjusted and we didn't exploit them for it. Coaching, IMHO, has cost us 3 straight Superbowls. But that's another thread. LOL.

Hopefully, the short and outlet game will be the next wave of installments in this offense (fingers crossed). If we get Lattimore, Gore, Hunter and James heavily involved in the offense playing off our play action and intermediate+ "go route" designs, they are going to be impossible to stop for a defense. Why? 1) Good defenses already have to use a LB or S to "spy" CK. Now you have one less defender in coverage which means somebody is going to have, literally, nobody covering them. 2) We tend to run a ton of AR1 and 2's and primary reads where these routes alone "stretch the field" vertically a good 10-20 yards. This means there is a ton of space between the DL and first wave of receivers (an area we can exploit with RB/FB's and soft-zone TE's) and 3) Like any receiver, the more they get their hands on the ball, the better they'll get and RB's, by nature, are built to make at least the first guy miss and like with CK, if he gets past that first defender, he's off and running; couple THAT concept with our tremendous big-bodied downfield blockers and the defense will be forced to pick it's poison. If they do, we can destroy them again in the power running game with less men in the box on a simple audible at the LOS.

But this coaching staff has a lot to learn re: first down production and attacking obvious defensive weakness and also, adjusting to the defenses adjustments and attacking new areas. We fail at chess, not talent.

After all the film clips that have been posted, you still believe that we run an AR passing attack? Kap has options on the majority of the pass plays on who to throw to. It is up to him to choose where to throw, based on his reading of the coverage. AR plays are just sprinkled in here and there. ALL of the passing concepts that I have mentioned in the breakdowns rely on the QB reading the defense and making the proper throw based on what he thinks the defense is doing. It's not even close when comparing the number of AR pass plays versus plays that use real passing concepts. There are so many more plays where Kap needs to use his smarts to determine where to throw. Here are the passing concepts that I have mentioned in the film threads when showing 49er plays. I'll categorize them as to what they try to accomplish.

zone busting concepts (vertical stretch): smash, high-lo


zone busting concepts (horizontal stretch): all-curls, 4 verticals, curl flat, follow,

Zone busting concept (horizontal and vertical stretch): triangle concepts

man busting concepts: mesh (criss crossing routes), rub (bunch formations)


The 49ers utilize ALL of these concepts and the proof is on film. I'm sure there are more that I just don't recognize. It's time to put this notion that the 49ers run a predominantly AR passing attack to bed. This could be the thread to do it. Perhaps I'll breakdown some AR plays that the 49ers do run so we can see just how scarce they really are throughout the course of a game.
Originally posted by buck:
duh

The offenses in 2013 and 1994 were different.

Harbaugh-Roman led teams do not throw the ball as often as the teams led by Walsh.
Harbaugh-Roman do not run a typical WCO or perhaps, they do not even run a WCO.


The reception and yardage % of the top 4 receivers were strikingly similar.

I did not expect that.

Honestly I didn't expect that either. I think one thing we can contrast between the '13 and the past title winning teams it the deviation between the he primary and the fourth. For the '13 squad the difference was 27% while most of the Walsh teams ran around 10-14% and the '94 team was about 20%. I think this difference illustrates the different approaches and depth both due to roster or injury.
Originally posted by thl408:
After all the film clips that have been posted, you still believe that we run an AR passing attack? Kap has options on the majority of the pass plays on who to throw to. It is up to him to choose where to throw, based on his reading of the coverage. AR plays are just sprinkled in here and there. ALL of the passing concepts that I have mentioned in the breakdowns rely on the QB reading the defense and making the proper throw based on what he thinks the defense is doing. It's not even close when comparing the number of AR pass plays versus plays that use real passing concepts. There are so many more plays where Kap needs to use his smarts to determine where to throw. Here are the passing concepts that I have mentioned in the film threads when showing 49er plays. I'll categorize them as to what they try to accomplish.

zone busting concepts (vertical stretch): smash, high-lo


zone busting concepts (horizontal stretch): all-curls, 4 verticals, curl flat, follow,

Zone busting concept (horizontal and vertical stretch): triangle concepts

man busting concepts: mesh (criss crossing routes), rub (bunch formations)


The 49ers utilize ALL of these concepts and the proof is on film. I'm sure there are more that I just don't recognize. It's time to put this notion that the 49ers run a predominantly AR passing attack to bed. This could be the thread to do it. Perhaps I'll breakdown some AR plays that the 49ers do run so we can see just how scarce they really are throughout the course of a game.

It really is time for kaep to take this offense by the horns and really let these WCO concepts work for him. Hell he is smart enough and has all the arm talent in the world to be a 65% approaching 4000 yard qb. Personally when I see a number like 33-35% of his pass completions going to the primary that just seems like a very high number unless that primary is Jerry in his prime. All the concepts you listed work in a primary, secondary, checkdowns/outlet approach. As we have hammered into the ground he has to start utilizing what the concepts are designed to do.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by NCommand:
^^^ That's 268 passes in '94 compared to 181 in '13.

'94 clearly used a primary receiver (duh) first and then the RB's and a nice even amount for the TE and secondary WR. Given the 87 more passes, obviously, they used the short game (RB) and primary target (WR) to soften up the defense and then exploited them with the secondary WR, TE and probably the FB as needed as well.



duh

The offenses in 2013 and 1994 were different.

Harbaugh-Roman led teams do not throw the ball as often as the teams led by Walsh.
Harbaugh-Roman do not run a typical WCO or perhaps, they do not even run a WCO.


The reception and yardage % of the top 4 receivers were strikingly similar.

I did not expect that.

LMAO! You are spot on...was just piggy-backing some.
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Oh for sure. I liked the game plan to attack Seattle on the edges with CK exposing them and also with big scrambles b/c of all the intermediate+ go-routes we run. Once CK got past the first wave (DL and the spy), he was off and running for huge gains. In short, we were stretching their defense out (and we had good blocking down field). This clearly, was by design. If they continued to rush their DE's hard (and they did), CK would side-step and be off and running.

It was that second half where I feel our game planning failed miserably, the RZ offense and esp. first down calls. Seattle adjusted and we didn't exploit them for it. Coaching, IMHO, has cost us 3 straight Superbowls. But that's another thread. LOL.

Hopefully, the short and outlet game will be the next wave of installments in this offense (fingers crossed). If we get Lattimore, Gore, Hunter and James heavily involved in the offense playing off our play action and intermediate+ "go route" designs, they are going to be impossible to stop for a defense. Why? 1) Good defenses already have to use a LB or S to "spy" CK. Now you have one less defender in coverage which means somebody is going to have, literally, nobody covering them. 2) We tend to run a ton of AR1 and 2's and primary reads where these routes alone "stretch the field" vertically a good 10-20 yards. This means there is a ton of space between the DL and first wave of receivers (an area we can exploit with RB/FB's and soft-zone TE's) and 3) Like any receiver, the more they get their hands on the ball, the better they'll get and RB's, by nature, are built to make at least the first guy miss and like with CK, if he gets past that first defender, he's off and running; couple THAT concept with our tremendous big-bodied downfield blockers and the defense will be forced to pick it's poison. If they do, we can destroy them again in the power running game with less men in the box on a simple audible at the LOS.

But this coaching staff has a lot to learn re: first down production and attacking obvious defensive weakness and also, adjusting to the defenses adjustments and attacking new areas. We fail at chess, not talent.

After all the film clips that have been posted, you still believe that we run an AR passing attack? Kap has options on the majority of the pass plays on who to throw to. It is up to him to choose where to throw, based on his reading of the coverage. AR plays are just sprinkled in here and there. ALL of the passing concepts that I have mentioned in the breakdowns rely on the QB reading the defense and making the proper throw based on what he thinks the defense is doing. It's not even close when comparing the number of AR pass plays versus plays that use real passing concepts. There are so many more plays where Kap needs to use his smarts to determine where to throw. Here are the passing concepts that I have mentioned in the film threads when showing 49er plays. I'll categorize them as to what they try to accomplish.

zone busting concepts (vertical stretch): smash, high-lo


zone busting concepts (horizontal stretch): all-curls, 4 verticals, curl flat, follow,

Zone busting concept (horizontal and vertical stretch): triangle concepts

man busting concepts: mesh (criss crossing routes), rub (bunch formations)


The 49ers utilize ALL of these concepts and the proof is on film. I'm sure there are more that I just don't recognize. It's time to put this notion that the 49ers run a predominantly AR passing attack to bed. This could be the thread to do it. Perhaps I'll breakdown some AR plays that the 49ers do run so we can see just how scarce they really are throughout the course of a game.

Predominant? I wouldn't say that...during an early span last year, I'd say yes, but as the season progressed, no. Do I still think many passing designs/calls dictate who the passes will go to, pre-snap? Naturally...b/c we're still going to that target no matter what the defense does pre-snap. This concept has been reinforced by both CK and Harbaugh. But I also believe more and more PS plays were being added throughout the year and many are grounded in your concept where CK must read the defense pre snap and determine his primary read based on the coverages he is seeing...the best matchup. Given neither of us have an iPlaybook yet (and I'm working on this...LOL), it's very hard to know if a play call is an AR1, AR2 or PS play where the passing game is dictacted by the defensive coverages just before the snap. Why? B/c more often than not, CK stays with his primary read. Granted the AR2's are easiest to see. Given that many of the designs you reference (zone busting and man busting concepts), even a standard WCO design, they can STILL be designed to get one AR the ball; like how we typically run go-routes to clear space for an underneath receiver or flood one side of the field to get isolation on the other (NFCCG INT). Are the other's "really" receiving options by design? Sometimes, yes, sometimes, no. High-low concepts, yes b/c that's an IF-THEN WCO design. In short, this is the most unique offense in the NFL and we really have no clear tendencies or ID to say, "This is who we are in the passing game." I would imagine next year, we'll see some additional waves of concepts added now that Harbaugh says they know who their personnel is....maybe put more in the hands/brain of CK as a true signal caller. I think and hope we're in the middle of a transition right now into a FT PS offense...whatever that offense is.
Originally posted by Giedi:
In the year of 2012, the passing attempts were at 436 for the year vs 417 this year, which tells me the offense won't change a whole lot. We had Delanie, Moss, Manningham, and Crabs that year and still we're hovering round 420 passes per year. I agree that the offense should be more effective, specially in the red zone if we have more passing targets, but I think this will still be 51% pass and 49% run offense.

Instead of more passes, I'd like to see more of an even distribution of passes to the WR's. If we have Quan, Crabs, Patton, VD, Vance and a High round WR draft pick - I'd like 25% Quan, 25% Crabs, 25% VD, 10% gore, 5% Patton, 5% Vance, and 5% High round WR draft pick. In other words, if Kaepernick is correctly reading the defense, there shouldn't be a preferred receiver that gets more than 30% of all the catches during the season, ideally speaking.

We have a winner.
It only stands to reason that the more viable productive targets he has, the better the distribution will be as he becomes more comfortable with the system.