OUR PASSING GAME---ANOTHER LOOK

Originally posted by NCommand:
Not to call you out at all Giedi but I think this is an example of how we put blame on CK's door step unwarranted. CK is not the OC. He is the good soldier. HaRoman decide what the play calls are and the personnel packages for each. CK's job is to execute that play no matter what the personnel packages are. At most, CK has an ability to audible (although, to what degree, we just don't know but it may be minimal as you get the feeling HaRoman like to have control). Moore was brought in as a proven veteran deep threat from Miami and excelled in pre season and was our #2 behind only Boldin. But come game time, it was Williams who was used and the slot position was rarely used by a true slot "wide receiver." That position was dedicated to a 2nd TE or large OL in jumbo formations. Could we have used Moore outside more or at least run some package deep balls with him. I'd say, yes. Was he a better fit than Williams? Most likely. Could we have used a guy like Hawkin in the return game and as a pure slot WR? I'm pretty sure we could but we don't run that type of spread or WCO enough to justify keeping him as a slot WR/Returner (I guess).

Either way, none of this should fall on CK or his lack of experience but it should rightfully fall on the door step of offensive philosophy and HaRoman in play calling and their own affinity for certain personnel packages. Nothing more IMHO.

As an example, Rivers absolutely sucked two years ago. They bring in Mike McCoy and despite losing so many great WR's, injuries to TE's, RB's, etc. he has his best year last year and the Chargers make the play offs and win an away game. Why? Their personnel was actually diminished but it was an offensive minded HC/OC who designed the offense around the personnel they did have and the QB's strengths and weaknesses. Nothing more. In Niner history, we used to have a true foundation of which you could plug-n-play at just about any position you needed without missing a beat. It prompted many discussions on which is it, the players or the system? We don't have that system yet. Right now we need pro bowlers at just about every position possible on offense to function (thankfully we do). This year will be critical in establishing our ID on offense and our system esp. in the passing game. This is the year we should see the true evolution, if there is one.

Why is this year more "critical" than last year? I don't see any big adjustments coming down the pike. We've established our id on offense. Our first offensive draft pick was a 230 lb running back. Says it all. We're not about to install a possession passing game or anything. Incrementalism is the rule of the day. Our vision of getting over the hump is to cut 290 lb Tukuafu and sub in 300 lb Okoye as the lead jumbo blocker. See? We got better by 10 pounds.

Don't forget Marv Levy was a pretty good coach.

Originally posted by Giedi:
As far as I know, Rivers (I think) has 5+ years in the NFL. That makes a big difference. I don't think G-ro is stupid enough not to use the best weapons he has on offense. Moore and Hawkins didn't make the team, for whatever reason. Definitely the OC and QB have a share in the final result if it's a loss. But this team won more than it lost using a conservative approach. When this offense stalls, it's usually against elite defenses. I don't know where either Moore or Hawkins ended up, but I'm betting they didn't have an anquan oldin season where they landed either. The point being is that I think folks are being too harsh on G-ro, if they are blaming him 100% for the lack of offensive production.

offensive scheme is important and how the players fit the scheme is also important. I do think that the scheme poorly fits our players. But not because of the OC. Injuries to manningham, Kyle, and Crabs probably had more to do with bad scheming fit than G-ro ' s brain farts.

Truth. But Rivers had zero experience in Mike McCoy's offense compared to 3 years of stability with CK. I'm not trying to get into a comparision between the two QB's but used that as a reference point for how a HC/OC didn't use personnel or an inexperienced QB (new to the system) as an excuse for not expanding the offense and growing throughout the year, becoming more and more dynamic; working with the personnel you had with an entire off season to prepare (the injury to Crabtree was very early).

I'm less concerned about Roman as I am about the offensive philosophy. To me, it still feels like a piece-meal offense and doesn't have a strong foundation of anything...bits and parts of WCO designs (but not concepts), some spread, Q-formations, Coryell routes, Pistol, power run, jumbo formations/personnel, shifts and motions, smoke screens, etc. and players such as Johnson said it's like learning Chinese and McDonald noted it was so complicated his rookie season was a blur.

How hard is it to utilize supreme talent in the short passing game? Shouldn't that be the first part of installation in your passing game for a younger QB? Then intermediate and deeper and then trickier formations such as the option, roll-rights, QB designed runs, etc.? I just think with all the personnel we had, there was plenty HaRoman could have done to expand the offense and use the 53, not just the 37 (as Baalke noted). We could have made life for CK way easier esp. constantly putting him behind the 8-ball on 2nd and 3rd and longs d/t predictable play calling on 1st downs. That has nothing to do with CK himself or his experience (i.e. handing off to Gore against a stacked run blitzing defense). Calling passing designs that truly don't have outs/outlets for him or realistic secondary receicers other than in a scramble drill.

At the end of the day, I just feel like too much blame has been placed on CK's feet (inexperience) and not an equal share to the offensive philosophy (and an inexperienced OC/Pro system) while we conveniently ignore how successful other teams were offensively with far less talent than we had. The two work hand-in-hand IMHO.

This year, with the emphasis by the FO to expand the offense and current talks of utilizing a 3rd WR more (and 2nd TE), we shall see how this evolution goes esp. with the added beef in the backfield and OL. I'm excited to see what happens but currently, I'm still curbing my enthusiasm until the proof is on the field and the results are in. Until then, I'll continue to see CK as the good soldier with room to grow personally (like I do equally for our offensive philosophy and HaRoman themselves).

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Why is this year more "critical" than last year? I don't see any big adjustments coming down the pike. We've established our id on offense. Our first offensive draft pick was a 230 lb running back. Says it all. We're not about to install a possession passing game or anything. Incrementalism is the rule of the day. Our vision of getting over the hump is to cut 290 lb Tukuafu and sub in 300 lb Okoye as the lead jumbo blocker. See? We got better by 10 pounds.

Don't forget Marv Levy was a pretty good coach.

LOL. Perhaps I have a little more faith than you at the moment (with the added pressure by the FO) BUT I'm also cautiously optimistic as well. I'll believe it when I see it.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Why is this year more "critical" than last year? I don't see any big adjustments coming down the pike. We've established our id on offense. Our first offensive draft pick was a 230 lb running back. Says it all. We're not about to install a possession passing game or anything. Incrementalism is the rule of the day. Our vision of getting over the hump is to cut 290 lb Tukuafu and sub in 300 lb Okoye as the lead jumbo blocker. See? We got better by 10 pounds.

Don't forget Marv Levy was a pretty good coach.

LOL. Perhaps I have a little more faith than you at the moment (with the added pressure by the FO) BUT I'm also cautiously optimistic as well. I'll believe it when I see it.

Don't you know? Things don't change. What you've seen in the past is always what you're going to see in the future.

Originally posted by NCommand:

LOL. Perhaps I have a little more faith than you at the moment (with the added pressure by the FO) BUT I'm also cautiously optimistic as well. I'll believe it when I see it.

I believe there is a lot of reasons to be optimistic. For starters, it just can't be discounted the level the offense was performing with all hands on deck. This is a very good sign because all of those last 5 games were essentially playoff games as a loss in any if them would have potentially resulted in missing the playoffs. Granted they seem to struggle against good defenses, but that can be said for almost any offense that is not a juggernaut type squad. But we did see an
offense that significantly improvement in yards and made great strides toward 50/50 balance.

Another reason why I am very optimistic, is I do have a lot of faith in kaep and believe his progression is gonna be significant. Just to end last year he had a 5% improvement in comp% and a 25 point increase in qb rating down the stretch. I was also impressed with the first presser I seen with him, he seem calm, confident and in control. I also heard him mention something to the effect "working on learning to take available checkdowns". Again I believe this is the next step in the evolution of a young qb, learning that taking what the defense is giving is a sign of strength.

Finally, I still can't wrap my mind around how good this offense looks from a personnel standpoint. This is easily the best roster we've had on paper since 1998. In my eyes the Stevie Johnson acquisition is that biggest move this off season. He poses so many matchup problems for defenses that his mere presence will make everyone else's job easier. Speaking of harbaugh's offense, it has shown to be many different things over the course of his coaching career. It was a very traditional WCO at USD and early at Stanford, it then transformed to a very heavy power run game his last two years at Stanford and thus far with us. So it really is on him as to what he wants to do, but I believe there has been enough hints that we will see a slightly more opened up offense. However this won't be like a 60% pass type attack it will be more inline with a 50/50 type of offense and as long as it's more pass on first down that brings that profile to 50/50 I will be more than happy.

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Why is this year more "critical" than last year? I don't see any big adjustments coming down the pike. We've established our id on offense. Our first offensive draft pick was a 230 lb running back. Says it all. We're not about to install a possession passing game or anything. Incrementalism is the rule of the day. Our vision of getting over the hump is to cut 290 lb Tukuafu and sub in 300 lb Okoye as the lead jumbo blocker. See? We got better by 10 pounds.

Don't forget Marv Levy was a pretty good coach.

LOL. Perhaps I have a little more faith than you at the moment (with the added pressure by the FO) BUT I'm also cautiously optimistic as well. I'll believe it when I see it.

Don't you know? Things don't change. What you've seen in the past is always what you're going to see in the future.

LMAO! TBH, I do expect some changes this year for sure...to what degree? It's best not to make predictions unless they are grounded in realistic expectations. Do you guys ahve any for this year? For each player...?

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:
LOL. Perhaps I have a little more faith than you at the moment (with the added pressure by the FO) BUT I'm also cautiously optimistic as well. I'll believe it when I see it.

I believe there is a lot of reasons to be optimistic. For starters, it just can't be discounted the level the offense was performing with all hands on deck back. This is a very good sign because all of those last 5 games were essentially playoff games as a loss in any if them would have potentially resulted in missing the playoffs. Granted they seem to struggle against good defenses, but that can be said for almost any offense that is not a juggernaut type squad. But we did see an offense that significantly improvement in yards and made great strides toward 50/50 balance.

Another reason why I am very optimistic, is I do have a lot of faith in kaep and believe his progression is gonna be significant. Just to end last year he had a 5% improvement in comp% and a 25 point increase in qb rating down the stretch. I was also impressed with the first presser I seen with him, he seem calm, confident and in control. I also heard him mention something to the effect "working on learning to take available checkdowns". Again I believe this is the next step in the evolution of a young qb, learning that taking what the defense is a sign of strength.

Finally, I still can't wrap my mind around how good this offense looks from a personnel standpoint. This is easily the best roster we've had on paper since 1998. In my eyes the Stevie Johnson acquisition is that biggest move this off season. He poses so many matchup problems for defenses that his mere presence will make everyone else's job easier. Speaking of harbaugh's offense, it has shown to be many different things over the course of his coaching career. It was a very traditional WCO at USD and early at Stanford, it then transformed to a very heavy power run game his last two years at Stanford and thus far with us. So it really is on him as to what he wants to do, but I believe there has been enough hints that we will see a slightly more opened up offense. However this won't be like a 60% pass type attack it will be more inline with a 50/50 type of offense and as long as it's more pass on first down that brings that profile to 50/50 I will be more than happy.

I share in this excitement as well and if CK did say that, I'm sold. JUST that one addition to his game could change everything!

Originally posted by NCommand:

LMAO! TBH, I do expect some changes this year for sure...to what degree? It's best not to make predictions unless they are grounded in realistic expectations. Do you guys ahve any for this year? For each player...?

2014 prediction

Total offense - 225 pass ypg, 150 rush ypg 375 total ypg

Kaep - 62%, 3700 pass yards, 25 tds, 10 int, 500 rush yards, 5 tds

Total offense prediction represents about a 15-20 ypg improvement from the post crab return numbers. As for kaep, I feel he will get the comp% back to 60%+ and the rest of the number represent growth over previous years.

Originally posted by NCommand:

I share in this excitement as well and if CK did say that, I'm sold. JUST that one addition to his game could change everything!

Yea I was very happy to hear him mention taking checkdowns, because even that change would make this offense so hard to contain. I also like it because it means either harbaugh/roman is in his ear or he posts/reads this forum

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:
I share in this excitement as well and if CK did say that, I'm sold. JUST that one addition to his game could change everything!

Yea I was very happy to hear him mention taking checkdowns, because even that change would make this offense so hard to contain. I also like it because it means either harbaugh/roman is in his ear or he posts/reads this forum

100% agree. It's also the kryptonite for Seattle IMHO and many of the higher powered defenses focused so much on the intermediate passing game and spying CK as a runner. Very, very encouraging!

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:
LMAO! TBH, I do expect some changes this year for sure...to what degree? It's best not to make predictions unless they are grounded in realistic expectations. Do you guys ahve any for this year? For each player...?

2014 prediction

Total offense - 225 pass ypg, 150 rush ypg 375 total ypg

Kaep - 62%, 3700 pass yards, 25 tds, 10 int, 500 rush yards, 5 tds

Total offense prediction represents about a 15-20 ypg improvement from the post crab return numbers. As for kaep, I feel he will get the comp% back to 60%+ and the rest of the number represent growth over previous years.

I think these are very very realistic numbers and I hope others take note. Have any numbers for WR's, TE's, RB's (run and pass), etc.? I wish I could find the ones I worked on a few months back and update a bit with the additions since then.

Originally posted by NCommand:

I think these are very very realistic numbers and I hope others take note. Have any numbers for WR's, TE's, RB's (run and pass), etc.? I wish I could find the ones I worked on a few months back and update a bit with the additions since then.

I'm still kinda have no idea who is gonna be the number one WR because at first I was thinking 100% crabs as number one, but that would be ignoring the fact that when crabs returned boldin numbers actually skyrocketed. Given that I'm thinking we are gonna throw the ball about 450 times I think our number one will have 75-80 catches for about 1000 yards. I think number two will have 55-60 catches, I'll give vd 50-55 catches and that leaves 40ish for our #3 WR. Hopefully I'm being rather conservative with kaeps 62% comp% and therefore there would be more catches available.

Now I know these number represent a shift in kaeps pass distribution that he has shown. Therefore maybe I'm hopeful that this is the distribution he is heading towards.

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:
I think these are very very realistic numbers and I hope others take note. Have any numbers for WR's, TE's, RB's (run and pass), etc.? I wish I could find the ones I worked on a few months back and update a bit with the additions since then.

I'm still kinda have no idea who is gonna be the number one WR because at first I was thinking 100% crabs as number one, but that would be ignoring the fact that when crabs returned boldin numbers actually skyrocketed. Given that I'm thinking we are gonna throw the ball about 450 times I think our number one will have 75-80 catches for about 1000 yards. I think number two will have 55-60 catches, I'll give vd 50-55 catches and that leaves 40ish for our #3 WR. Hopefully I'm being rather conservative with kaeps 62% comp% and therefore there would be more catches available.

Now I know these number represent a shift in kaeps pass distribution that he has shown. Therefore maybe I'm hopeful that this is the distribution he is heading towards.

Did it really jump that much? IIRC, it was Boldin and VD rotating between the team leader each game in receptions and then when Crabtree returned, his catches gradually increased and then he and Boldin rotated as reception leaders while VD's receptions declined greatly. I think this is a big reason VD is trying to get an extension NOW b/c he knows he played as a WR last year and these are the best his numbers will ever be esp. with the addition of Stevie Johnson, McDonald's increased role, Patton, Ellington, more power backs and perhaps, an H-back like Carrier or Greene (and Miller healthy) being added to the mix. I'd still put Crabtree as 100% the #1, Boldin #2 and then a big drop to Johnson and VD as the #3's and they'd be pretty close to identical...throw in a few bones for Patton, Ellington, Miller and McDonald. As far as receptions for the RB's? That's the one I genuinely care about!

Originally posted by NCommand:

Did it really jump that much? IIRC, it was Boldin and VD rotating between the team leader each game in receptions and then when Crabtree returned, his catches gradually increased and then he and Boldin rotated as reception leaders while VD's receptions declined greatly. I think this is a big reason VD is trying to get an extension NOW b/c he knows he played as a WR last year and these are the best his numbers will ever be esp. with the addition of Stevie Johnson, McDonald's increased role, Patton, Ellington, more power backs and perhaps, an H-back like Carrier or Greene (and Miller healthy) being added to the mix. I'd still put Crabtree as 100% the #1, Boldin #2 and then a big drop to Johnson and VD as the #3's and they'd be pretty close to identical...throw in a few bones for Patton, Ellington, Miller and McDonald. As far as receptions for the RB's? That's the one I genuinely care about!

In the five games with crabs back, boldin had 33 catches for 455 yards and crabs had 19 rec for 284. On a per game ave, boldin went from averaging 5 rec for 65 yards pre crabs return to almost 7 rec per game for 90 ypg. His increase accounted for the most of the teams +40 ypg pass increase. Boldin also had more catches in the playoffs too, but in that case it was 16 to 15. My hunch says crabs will be number 1 but if they were able to split equal catches that would be best for the team.

Kaep doesn't seem to have a problem getting two guys involved, it getting that 3rd and 4th that is gonna be the key.

Originally posted by NCommand:
100% agree. It's also the kryptonite for Seattle IMHO and many of the higher powered defenses focused so much on the intermediate passing game and spying CK as a runner. Very, very encouraging!

I thought, with RGIII injury, we pretty much announced to the world, we aren't going to run him. I thought that and Crabtree's absence really made it tough on our passing game, early. Panthers and Seahawks seemed genuinely surprised by him having designed runs in the playoffs. They didn't see it in the regular season.

The more you run your QB, the greater for injury concerns. But, I would run him just enough for defenses to have to account for his running and do more than have an ILB shadow him. If they do he more than likely will run by them.