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OUR PASSING GAME---ANOTHER LOOK

passing game needs some work...but we USE THE RUN MORE THAN ANY OTHER TEAM IN THE LEAGUE...
Originally posted by Niners816:
Originally posted by thl408:
Here is Kap's distribution through the first 12 weeks of the 13-14 season. It only lists catches (does include RB/FB, but leaves out a few WRs). Notice the top heavy distribution. Now that the season has ended, we can get a more complete picture. I may get to it at a different time.

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....


I did this back in December as a rough study of how Alex distributes the ball versus Kap. Below is what I compiled for Alex (catches only) when he played in 12-13. It's similar to what buck compiled, but slightly different for VD. I used pro football reference dot com.

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1

I looked at 2011 and the distribution was very similar to early '12. That is why I looked at his last Stanford offense and sure enough it was even more spread out. I know part of that can be attributed tot be natural of more players on a college roster, but still there was a distinct well spread out nature to harbaugh's offense pre-kaep.

Good news. So in short, we can expect after another year under CK, a slightly better distribution (still top heavy with #1 & #2).

So:
#1 = 4-6 catches a game
#2 = 4
#3 = 3

And about 1 for everyone else (just a wider distribution like we saw under Alex/Luck).

The offense under CK is very similar esp. once Crabtree came back. Basicially, what you can expect is Crabtree and Boldin alternating as the #1 receiver, the #2 should be close behind and VD's numbers will fall off some. Spreading the ball around more to Patton, McDonald, Gore, Hunter, James and Miller will be very important next year.
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 3, 2014 at 12:36 PM ]
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by Niners816:
I looked at 2011 and the distribution was very similar to early '12. That is why I looked at his last Stanford offense and sure enough it was even more spread out. I know part of that can be attributed tot be natural of more players on a college roster, but still there was a distinct well spread out nature to harbaugh's offense pre-kaep.

That was a hell of a breakdown in post #41 of Standford's pass distribution. It seems like Harbaugh is not an advocate of having a top heavy catch distribution and that the reason there was a top heavy distribution in 13-14 is due to Kap favoring certain targets more than others. This should not be news to anyone. I think part of the reason is just Kap's limited vision of the field which many posters have touched on. As the game slows down and he becomes more comfortable, I expect the ball to be spread around more than it was in 13-14. Vance and the 3rd WR will be the beneficiaries of this improved vision of the field.

This!
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by Niners816:
I agree totally with this bolded statement. I believe if there was one offense in his coaching career that he sort of strives to emulates it would the 2010 Stanford attack. You firgure he had his team fully in place, played in a top conference, and had an uber qb that would have been the top pick as if he could have come out. Basically if he was ever gonna go nuts passing the team was fully in place. The profile for that offense was the following:

OVERALL PROFILE
- Ratio: 42% Pass/58% Rush
- 258.7 Pass YPG
- 213.8 Rush YPG
-Comp%: 70.2
-TD/Int ratio: 32/8

Pass Distruibution(Based on Completion, couldn't find Targets)
-WR (57.3%) - Top WR had 38.9% of Rec within Postion, #2 had 27.5% and #3 had 16.8%
-TE (25.4%) - Top TE had 42.4% of Rec within Postion, #2 had 31.8% and #3 had 24.2%
-Backs (17.3) - Top Back had 62.2% of Rec within Postion

Recption Leaders
WR1 - 58 (22.3% of total Rec)
WR2 - 41 (15.8%)
TE1 - 28 (10.8%)
HB1 - 28 (10.8%)
WR3 - 25 (9.6%)
TE2 - 21 (8.1%)
WR4 - 17 (6.5%)
TE3 - 16 (6.2%)

Overall, watching this team I guess it just felt like TE's were even more involved then the numbers proofed. However it's pretty clear Harbaugh's passing goal is to spread the ball around with a highly effecient/turnover limiting attack. These 2010 stats illustrate what I believe is his "perfect" profile of an offense. I know watching 2011 and early '12 it really did feel like this type of offense. I know even with Kaep the efficiency #'s have remind good with the exception of completion %. Personaly I really wish the HBs were more involved, I remember we beat that to death in the "West Coast Offense/What is our Offense" thread from about a month ago. It really is alarming the effects of involving the Backs have on both the completion % and QB rating.

Excellent post - too bad I can't give you reputation points the way I can at the official 49er boards. I agree and second everything you said above.

I don't know too much of the 2010 Stanford offense, but I'm betting WR-1 and WR-2 were speedster kinds of WRs? I know Colby Fleener was an outstanding pass catcher. I like that kind of pass distribution for Kaep. In *my* ideal offense for Harbaugh, Kaepernick has two deep threat WR's and a ball control pass catcher (the TE). Kaep does have already one deep threat receiver in this 49er current offense- but he's a TE. I think if he gets two, he'll be unstoppable.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by maxsmart:
I see, we threw a pass on the last play of the game, and we lost the game, so passing is bad? You think we lost the superbowl on two plays? We lost because of the culmination of all ~~70 plays. Perhaps if we had a more well-rounded pass game we wouldn't of had to resort to a desperation pass on the last play of the game. Developing a more well-rounded short & intermediate (& deep) passing game has several benefits:
#1. More first downs. The 49ers were 25th in NFL for 1st downs, and converted only 36% of their 3rd downs. Despite many pro-bowlers.
#2. More first downs = ball control = wears down the opponents defense = rests our defense
#3. More first downs = more points so we don't have to throw desperation Hail Mary type passes at the end of the game
#4. Passing more often = teaches the players to perfect the passing game so they are better at it. It's pretty hard to just catch a very few balls all year (like Vance McDonald, Hunter, LMJ, Gore, etc) and then get a fastball from Kap in crunch time. A team that passes more is likely to be better at it and then if they need to pass they are more likely to succeed at it rather than throwing up a tough hail mary pass.
#5. Well-rounded short passing game helps the run game and the deep passing game

We run the ball time and again into the stacked defense over and over and then at the end of the game we have to throw a desperation pass to win the game is asking a lot of the players. And then blame the loss on the pass. Better to have a well-balanced ball control passing game

Again, meh. I'm all for improving the offensive passing game, and in general I do want our offense to be more efficient and better talented than last year. I do want Kaep to have pass catchers to throw to, when his first three options are covered. That's a given, but offense doesn't win championships. Defense does.
Originally posted by thl408:
That was a hell of a breakdown in post #41 of Standford's pass distribution. It seems like Harbaugh is not an advocate of having a top heavy catch distribution and that the reason there was a top heavy distribution in 13-14 is due to Kap favoring certain targets more than others. This should not be news to anyone. I think part of the reason is just Kap's limited vision of the field which many posters have touched on. As the game slows down and he becomes more comfortable, I expect the ball to be spread around more than it was in 13-14. Vance and the 3rd WR will be the beneficiaries of this improved vision of the field.

Thanks.....honestly I'm pretty happy with kaep thus far and I agree he should only get better. I just keep reminding myself this is his first foray into a pro style offense. Granted we have sprinkled in elements of the pistol and such but he has done quite well running a pretty much new offense for him. Film and reps are his biggest friends moving forward. I have full confidence in both him and harbaugh.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by jvangeystel:
We cannot assume that if Harbaugh increases the number of passes the 49ers will maintain or increase their TOP. Rather we should assume that they will control the ball less due to an increase in incompletions. More passing attempts equal more failed passing attempts.

I would advocate an increase in passing attempts this season because Gore is slowly losing his ability to produce. I believe Lynch is the only reason the Hawks were able to beat this team last year. We are a running team with a great back who will produce like he's average. Gore has no more seasons of being a top back with greater than 1200 yards without running him into the ground. We need a young Gore. We need to match what the Hawks have in the backfield.

We also need that deep threat that can scare those safeties back into deep zones. We need a more rugged version of Percy Harvin. I believe our two top receivers should be posession type guys, and our third should be a speedster. If we run deep routes with Vernon and another guy I believe our running game would be unstoppable while our short passing will blossom into what the zone has been crying out for.

Our TOP has gone down each season it proves we are becoming worse at one of the coaching staffs most important goals. Our defense is fine. Baalke will resign the idiotic Culliver and draft a top CB and a Fast WR. From there he can really just find players he likes. We need a SS but, not until next year. We need a successor for Justin Smith but, not until next year. We have Lattimore and Carradine who are both promising understudies to great players. We have a bright future.

Personally, I think the woe's of the running game can be traced to the fall off in production/talent of Goodwin. That's why he wasn't re-signed this year. I think one of the more underrated positions for an offensive team like ours is the center position. It's an unsung position in both the passing and running game. Also, when Miller went down with an injury, his blocking for the run was missed in the Seattle game. While I agree Frank Gore is not the same as he was when he set the NFL on fire in 2006, he's still a productive back for us. I think with Lattimore on the wings and Frank Gore being the main ball carrier, we have the RB position covered. But I really really really want a powerful center in this years draft - I think that will do a world of wonders when we play teams built like us with strong D LInes. If we can control the middle of the line with a powerful center, we control the game.
Originally posted by Giedi:
Excellent post - too bad I can't give you reputation points the way I can at the official 49er boards. I agree and second everything you said above.

I don't know too much of the 2010 Stanford offense, but I'm betting WR-1 and WR-2 were speedster kinds of WRs? I know Colby Fleener was an outstanding pass catcher. I like that kind of pass distribution for Kaep. In *my* ideal offense for Harbaugh, Kaepernick has two deep threat WR's and a ball control pass catcher (the TE). Kaep does have already one deep threat receiver in this 49er current offense- but he's a TE. I think if he gets two, he'll be unstoppable.

Thank you....I agree with your assessment. That is why I always wanted both fleener and ertz in the last couple of drafts. I think jim sort of stumbled onto the pistol in '12, but I feel to get that ring it's going to be an offense more similar to his '10 Stanford attack. Honestly since our 80s and 90s WCO isn't coming back that Stanford attack is what I want.
[ Edited by Niners816 on Apr 3, 2014 at 1:05 PM ]
Originally posted by jvangeystel:
We cannot assume that if Harbaugh increases the number of passes the 49ers will maintain or increase their TOP. Rather we should assume that they will control the ball less due to an increase in incompletions. More passing attempts equal more failed passing attempts.

I would advocate an increase in passing attempts this season because Gore is slowly losing his ability to produce. I believe Lynch is the only reason the Hawks were able to beat this team last year. We are a running team with a great back who will produce like he's average. Gore has no more seasons of being a top back with greater than 1200 yards without running him into the ground. We need a young Gore. We need to match what the Hawks have in the backfield.

We also need that deep threat that can scare those safeties back into deep zones. We need a more rugged version of Percy Harvin. I believe our two top receivers should be posession type guys, and our third should be a speedster. If we run deep routes with Vernon and another guy I believe our running game would be unstoppable while our short passing will blossom into what the zone has been crying out for.

Our TOP has gone down each season it proves we are becoming worse at one of the coaching staffs most important goals. Our defense is fine. Baalke will resign the idiotic Culliver and draft a top CB and a Fast WR. From there he can really just find players he likes. We need a SS but, not until next year. We need a successor for Justin Smith but, not until next year. We have Lattimore and Carradine who are both promising understudies to great players. We have a bright future.

One minor correction: Your first sentence is 100%. Your next couple of sentences are 100% wrong. A short example, Andy Dalton completes 3 of his first 10 passes. So does this mean he will complete 3 of his next 10 passes? No. Dalton could complete 10 of his next 10 passes.

Just because you increase frequency does mean you decrease accuracy or increase in completions. We cannot draw that conclusion.
  • buck
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Dang, it is hard to predict.

Next year will be the fourth year of the Harbaugh-Roman offense.

I am going to make some guesses, and they are no more than guesses.

The team brain trust (York, Baalke, Harbaugh, Roman, and Fangio)have done and continue to explore the adaptations that could and should be made.

Given the over-all success of the team over the last three years, I believe that the offensive adaptations agreed upon will be small and incremental, but still potentially significant.

I expect to see an small, perhaps moderate, increase in the % of passes thrown, and a similar expansion of 3 wide receiver sets.

I hope that we incorporate our backs more in the passing game. Miller, Gore, and Hunter have had better than decent catch % The addition of Lattimore should be interesting.

I anticipate more plays (both running and passing)designed to hit the edges with speed and shiftiness.

I look forward to the draft and even more so to beginning of the season.
To those FA WR's that we tried for in Sanders, Jackson, etc. would you come here knowing the primary target only gets 4-6 catches a game and knowing full-well the top 3 are Crabtree, Boldin and VD? They'd get the Moss-treatment here (decoy) at best...maybe a few package targets a game. In short, this is just recognizing who we are as an offense as we all hope for some minor incremental gains next year as noted by Buck...the "speed" WR we get will come from the draft and will hopefully, also be a dynamic returner, something that was critical to all 5 of our Superbowl wins and a missing element (and teams like the Ravens and Hawks hurt us with with theirs).
Here is a profile breakdown of all of Harbaugh's 49ers offense based on catches.

2011 - WR (52.3%) TE (31.4%) Backs (16.2%)
Reception distribution:
WR1 - (25.9%)
TE1 - (24.2%)
WR2 - (7.2%)
TE2 - (6.8%)
WR3 - (6.8%)
HB1 - (6.1%)
HB2 - (5.8%)
WR4 - (5.4%)
WR5 - (5.4%)
HM3 - (4.0%)

2012 Smith - WR (58.8%) TE (21.6%) Backs (19.6%)
Reception distribution:
WR1 - (25.5%)
WR2 - (18.3%)
TE1 - (16.3%)
WR3 - (8.4%)
WR4 - (6.5%)
TE2 - (4.6%)
BACKS - (19.6%)

2012 Kaep - WR (58.9%) TE (25.0%) Backs (16.1)
Reception distribution:
WR1 - (33.8%)
TE1 - (11.8%)
WR3*-(11.0%)
WR2 - (10.3%)
TE2 - (10.3%)
TE3 - (2.9%)
BACKS - (16.1%)
*=Title still based on role with Smith

2013 - WR (54.7%) TE (25.5%) Backs (19.8%)
Reception distribution:
WR1 - (35.0%)
TE1 - (21.4%)
FB1 - (10.3%)
WR2 - (7.8%)
HB1 - (6.5%)
TE2 - (3.3%)
WR3 - (1.2%)
WR4 - (1.2%)
TE3 - (1.0%)

Just for the hell of it here is our last Super Bowl teams breakdown
1994 - WR (52.0%) TE (17.6%) Backs (30.4%)
Reception distribution:
WR1 - (32.3%)
HB1 - (18.4%)
TE1 - (13.6%)
WR2 - (11.4%)
WR3 - (5.8%)
HB2 - (5.3%)
HB3 - (4.5%)
TE2 - (3.6%)
Do you have the above stats for attempts? Just with totals, not %'s.
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Do you have the above stats for attempts? Just with totals, not %'s.

I do not have targets. Earlier in this thread buck complied the numbers for targets in the 2012 season. For the numbers he compiled I ran % for both targets and catches and the percentages ran pretty close together give or take 1-1.5%. I chose to use receptions as a base cause I wanted to be able to relate harbaugh's 49ers passing stats with his standford pass attack.
  • buck
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Maybe these tables will help.