OUR PASSING GAME---ANOTHER LOOK

Originally posted by thl408:

buck,

Thanks for posting those numbers for the WRsn and perfectly broken down according to QB targets. Can we also get the numbers for TEs and RBs, just so we can have a total breakdown of targets in the passing game?

Then we can have a complete picture as to how the catches are distributed when each QB was playing within this system. I'm mainly interested in Alex's numbers in 2012. The best timespan we can analyze for Kap is 13-14 when he had a full offseason to prepare as a starter. Even then it was his first full year in the league as a starter.

I gave the breakdown for tight ends, well at least for Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, in the post prior to the wide receiver stats. That TE breakdown includes targets and receptions. (see post #45)

I could not find the game-by-game targets for running backs. ESPN only listed targets for wide receivers and tight ends. We do not always get what we want.

Originally posted by buck:
Here is the breakdown of 2012 passes divided into games played by Alex Smith and games played by Collin Kaepernick.

In this post, I only give the numbers for Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker.

I will follow up with the wide receivers. I could not find the target numbers for backs, so I will not include them. ESPN only had the targets per game for wide receivers and tight ends.

Ah I got it. I didn't see the end of page 3.

Originally posted by buck:

True good point. Dangerous to make assumptions.



If we make assumptions, negative assumptions are those that should be made.

I think all the negativity is a bit over blown. Granted there are a few tweaks I would like to see, namely more passes on first down, a more concerted effort to take the checkdowns when available, and a better sense of timing in regards to calling plays/playclock awareness. Having said all that I think with a heathy we corp a realistic expectation for next year out of kaep would be 3500+ yards, 60-63% completion, 25 td and 10 or less ints. Those numbers are very doable and would represent a nice step in kaep's career.

Originally posted by buck:
True good point. Dangerous to make assumptions.



If we make assumptions, negative assumptions are those that should be made.

I am not assuming anything except that we will control the ball less. We may be more successful as a team that passes more. I believe that it is very much realistic with the vast amount of talent on this team. I do worry however what will become of our defense if they are forced to play for larger periods of time. I worry about our defensive depth and the apparent refusal to install a system that rotates our d-line to rest those guys.

So what is our distribution tally under Alex (average receptions per game from top to bottom)? Then we can compare to CK's numbers once Crabtree came back healthy.

Originally posted by jvangeystel:

Originally posted by buck:

True good point. Dangerous to make assumptions.


If we make assumptions, negative assumptions are those that should be made.

I am not assuming anything except that we will control the ball less. We may be more successful as a team that passes more. I believe that it is very much realistic with the vast amount of talent on this team. I do worry however what will become of our defense if they are forced to play for larger periods of time. I worry about our defensive depth and the apparent refusal to install a system that rotates our d-line to rest those guys.

Still, it is dangerous to assume.

Originally posted by NCommand:
So what is our distribution tally under Alex (average receptions per game from top to bottom)? Then we can compare to CK's numbers once Crabtree came back healthy.

Here is Alex's numbers for the full games he played in 2012 (thanks, buck):

(targets/catches)
Crabs: 55/39
Ham: 37/28
VD: 36/25
Moss: 21/13
KW: 14/10
Dwalker: 12/7
Ginn: 1/1


What I was looking for is a distribution in targets that isn't so top heavy, with the gap between one WR to next, to not be significant. Simply stated, is he sharing the ball? There's a gap from Crabs to Ham (difference of 18 targets/11 catches), but after that it's a nice distribution. There are no RBs listed here so that does matter.

I will find Kap's numbers from the 13-14 season and post them. I had it somewhere in a different thread. They are pre-Crabs numbers though and only list catches, not targets.

Originally posted by NCommand:

So what is our distribution tally under Alex (average receptions per game from top to bottom)? Then we can compare to CK's numbers once Crabtree came back healthy.

I do not know what the distribution tally under Alex is. Maybe, somebody will compile the stats.

Originally posted by thl408:

Here is Alex's numbers for the full games he played in 2012 (thanks, buck):

(targets/catches)
Crabs: 55/39
Ham: 37/28
VD: 36/25
Moss: 21/13
KW: 14/10
Dwalker: 12/7
Ginn: 1/1


What I was looking for is a distribution in targets that isn't so top heavy, with the gap between one WR to next, to not be significant. Simply stated, is he sharing the ball? There's a gap from Crabs to Ham (difference of 18 targets/11 catches), but after that it's a nice distribution. There are no RBs listed here so that does matter.

I will find Kap's numbers from the 13-14 season and post them. I had it somewhere in a different thread. They are pre-Crabs numbers though and only list catches, not targets.

Based on targets smith distrubution was as follows (also,thanks buck for compiling):

31.2% crabs
21.0% ham
20.6% vd
12.0% moss
8.0% kw
6.9% walker

Just for comparisons sake here was harbaugh's last Stanford offense distribution:

WR1 - 58 (22.3% of total Rec)
WR2 - 41 (15.8%)
TE1 - 28 (10.8%)
HB1 - 28 (10.8%)
WR3 - 25 (9.6%)
TE2 - 21 (8.1%)
WR4 - 17 (6.5%)
TE3 - 16 (6.2%)

It'll be interesting to see how the niners stack up over basically three distinct seasons.

Here is Kap's distribution through the first 12 weeks of the 13-14 season. It only lists catches (does include RB/FB, but leaves out a few WRs). Notice the top heavy distribution. Now that the season has ended, we can get a more complete picture. I may get to it at a different time.

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....


I did this back in December as a rough study of how Alex distributes the ball versus Kap. Below is what I compiled for Alex (catches only) when he played in 12-13. It's similar to what buck compiled, but slightly different for VD. I used pro football reference dot com.

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1

Originally posted by thl408:

Here is Kap's distribution through the first 12 weeks of the 13-14 season. It only lists catches (does include RB/FB, but leaves out a few WRs). Notice the top heavy distribution. Now that the season has ended, we can get a more complete picture. I may get to it at a different time.

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....


I did this back in December as a rough study of how Alex distributes the ball versus Kap. Below is what I compiled for Alex (catches only) when he played in 12-13. It's similar to what buck compiled, but slightly different for VD. I used pro football reference dot com.

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1

I looked at 2011 and the distribution was very similar to early '12. That is why I looked at his last Stanford offense and sure enough it was even more spread out. I know part of that can be attributed tot be natural of more players on a college roster, but still there was a distinct well spread out nature to harbaugh's offense pre-kaep.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So what is our distribution tally under Alex (average receptions per game from top to bottom)? Then we can compare to CK's numbers once Crabtree came back healthy.

Here is Alex's numbers for the full games he played in 2012 (thanks, buck):

(targets/catches)
Crabs: 55/39
Ham: 37/28
VD: 36/25
Moss: 21/13
KW: 14/10
Dwalker: 12/7
Ginn: 1/1


What I was looking for is a distribution in targets that isn't so top heavy, with the gap between one WR to next, to not be significant. Simply stated, is he sharing the ball? There's a gap from Crabs to Ham (difference of 18 targets/11 catches), but after that it's a nice distribution. There are no RBs listed here so that does matter.

I will find Kap's numbers from the 13-14 season and post them. I had it somewhere in a different thread. They are pre-Crabs numbers though and only list catches, not targets.

Agreed! No worries...would mostly prefer just the totals/% from when Crabtree came back (Week 13/Rams) under CK.

Originally posted by buck:

The options are not either x or y.

Yes. Improvements can only be made to a certain extent, but that is true for both the offensive and defensive.

Our defense is good, very good. I would like to see it get better.

Our offense is not nearly as good as our defense. I would like to see it get better.

Over the last three years, we have passed the ball 46.59% of the time and we have run it 53.41% of the time.

I would like to see us increase the percentage of times we throw the ball.

Maybe we should run the ball 51% of the time and pass it 49% of the time.

I do not know if that will require a change in philosophy, but if it does, it does.

I don't think it will take a change in philosophy. Both Walsh and Harbaugh like to get to a balanced attack, it's just that philosophically speaking Walsh was 51% pass 49% run and Harbaugh the opposite. Now of course 54% run and 46% pass is getting into territory where you become to predictable, *unless* you have superior athletic talents that say no matter what the opposing defense does, we're going to move the ball, then if that's the case a 54% run pass ratio may not be bad. Personally, I think the cap has more to do with the run/pass ratio than philosophy. With many teams putting a premium on WR's and pass catching TE's, they drive the market value up for those kinds of players, whereas the power runners like Frank Gore's without the Adrien Peterson fast break speed isn't in much demand. I think good O Linemen that can man block for the run, vs O Linemen that are premier pass protectors are cheaper *capwise* because most NFL teams are trying to take advantage of the more liberal passing rules.

Again, personally, because of Kaep's uncommon long range arm and accuracy, I'd rather have two desean Jakson type of WR's manning AR - 1 and AR -2, than two ball control receivers like a Crabs and Anquan manning AR - 1 and AR -2. I think that fits Kaep's skill set better than trying to shoehorn him into being a Russell Wilson type of horizontal QB. If Harbaugh also thinks this then Harbaugh/Baalke will draft *two or three* speedster WR's. Also, you can almost say that Qunton Patton can be a speedster WR because he's been clocked at 4.5 / 40. and so I"m looking to see if the 49ers draft maybe one or two more faster Quinton Patton type of WR's.

Finally, I think our running game needs to be improved as well as our passing game. We need Vance to become a better blocker so that if Bruce Miller goes down - Vance can step in adequately. He missed some blocks in the NFCCG that JohnnyDel alluded to. I'm looking to actually get better depth at the TE position. I'd like a big 250 or 260 pound power running fullback like a brandon jacobs for the 3rd and short game. I'd be looking to replace Celek and Derek Carrier with faster and bigger draftees. Our future center, whether that be Kilgore or a draftee needs to be a much stronger man blocker than we've had here in a while. I think a stronger run game will help our passing game.

Originally posted by Niners816:
I looked at 2011 and the distribution was very similar to early '12. That is why I looked at his last Stanford offense and sure enough it was even more spread out. I know part of that can be attributed tot be natural of more players on a college roster, but still there was a distinct well spread out nature to harbaugh's offense pre-kaep.

That was a hell of a breakdown in post #41 of Standford's pass distribution. It seems like Harbaugh is not an advocate of having a top heavy catch distribution and that the reason there was a top heavy distribution in 13-14 is due to Kap favoring certain targets more than others. This should not be news to anyone. I think part of the reason is just Kap's limited vision of the field which many posters have touched on. As the game slows down and he becomes more comfortable, I expect the ball to be spread around more than it was in 13-14. Vance and the 3rd WR will be the beneficiaries of this improved vision of the field.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

Joe and coach Walsh both made GOAT careers out of passing on first down, frequently on 2nd also. It is the one thing Coach H has steadfastly refused to do, and consequently, I think he cheated himself out of 2 SBs.

It's a different era with everybody employing some variation of the WCO. Mobile QB's with good short range accuracy and lacking the cannon arm are now valued as highly as those QB's that aren't that mobile and do have that cannon arm. The game has changed since and I don't think employing a WCO is going to result in a sure fire Super Bowl offense like it did in the '80's and '90's.

What I will say is that the rules do favor the passing more than the running, so all teams should have a good passing game, and in the playoffs all teams do have a great passing game generally, and so our defense should be geared to stop the pass in the post season. Again, between offensive improvement and defensive improvement - I'd choose defensive improvement over offensive improvement. Ideally, I'd like both to improve, but defense wins championships. I want championships.