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OUR PASSING GAME---ANOTHER LOOK

  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 13,023
Here are the numbers for the wide receivers.

I might have rushed to much with these tables. I had the Crabtree // Alex Smith numbers wrong.

I checked all the number and redid the table. Sorry.

[ Edited by buck on Apr 2, 2014 at 10:33 PM ]
We were too conservative last year but we had some injuries and Kaep had a little cold streak were his accuracy wasn't there. We can all see the potential there in Kaep and our passing game though. Then there's the Roman problem.
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Joe and coach Walsh both made GOAT careers out of passing on first down, frequently on 2nd also. It is the one thing Coach H has steadfastly refused to do, and consequently, I think he cheated himself out of 2 SBs.

Meh. We lost the Superbowl and we lost the NFC CG on pass plays. In hindsight, one can argue that we should have run it and that Harbaugh didn't stick to his run first philosophy enough.

I see, we threw a pass on the last play of the game, and we lost the game, so passing is bad? You think we lost the superbowl on two plays? We lost because of the culmination of all ~~70 plays. Perhaps if we had a more well-rounded pass game we wouldn't of had to resort to a desperation pass on the last play of the game. Developing a more well-rounded short & intermediate (& deep) passing game has several benefits:
#1. More first downs. The 49ers were 25th in NFL for 1st downs, and converted only 36% of their 3rd downs. Despite many pro-bowlers.
#2. More first downs = ball control = wears down the opponents defense = rests our defense
#3. More first downs = more points so we don't have to throw desperation Hail Mary type passes at the end of the game
#4. Passing more often = teaches the players to perfect the passing game so they are better at it. It's pretty hard to just catch a very few balls all year (like Vance McDonald, Hunter, LMJ, Gore, etc) and then get a fastball from Kap in crunch time. A team that passes more is likely to be better at it and then if they need to pass they are more likely to succeed at it rather than throwing up a tough hail mary pass.
#5. Well-rounded short passing game helps the run game and the deep passing game

We run the ball time and again into the stacked defense over and over and then at the end of the game we have to throw a desperation pass to win the game is asking a lot of the players. And then blame the loss on the pass. Better to have a well-balanced ball control passing game
Originally posted by bzborow1:
Other factors to consider:
- Scheme. We run the ball, wear people down and rely on keeping that defense well rested.
Actually a short passing game is more likely to get more first downs, have longer time of possession and wear down the opponents defense (and rest our defense)
So, I haven't followed this thread closely -- why are we showing Kap numbers compared to Alex?
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
So, I haven't followed this thread closely -- why are we showing Kap numbers compared to Alex?

Everything is compared to Alex for all time on the WZ.
When you consider we were at the bottom of the league in attempts, these numbers make a lot of sense. It's a function of our offense. We don't pass the ball a lot.
  • buck
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Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
So, I haven't followed this thread closely -- why are we showing Kap numbers compared to Alex?

Some asked for the number for Alex in the first half of 2012. I gave the numbers for both Alex and Collin.

buck, can you provide a chart similar to the one above that lists targets and completions for the first half of 12-13, when Alex was QB (only games where he started and finished)? I feel that is the real passing offense that Harbaugh wants to use, or what is closest to it. The reason I say 12-13 when Alex was QB is because by then Alex had a full year with two offseasons preparing as the starter (2011 semi-locked out offseason, all of the offseason leading up to 12-13). That's the best time span I can think of where the 49er QB had a good grasp of what Harbaugh wanted to do.

Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/177919-our-passing-game---another-look/page2/#e2HmOVccqh4VyPvX.99
I have not followed closely either but was wondering a few things that may factor into our ratio of pass/run.

Is it considered a passing play if the qb tucks and runs.

Are there stats on scrambles?

We have a qb who is very good at scrambling so it makes sense to me that even if we do call for a pass, it may end up in the run column. This could skew states towards the run vs pass.
Originally posted by rk1642:
I have not followed closely either but was wondering a few things that may factor into our ratio of pass/run.

Is it considered a passing play if the qb tucks and runs.

Are there stats on scrambles?

We have a qb who is very good at scrambling so it makes sense to me that even if we do call for a pass, it may end up in the run column. This could skew states towards the run vs pass.

Scrambles are runs. It's not so much the ratio it's how the games play out. For example all of bill Walsh's Super Bowl teams had the same pass/rush ratio of 48%pass/52%rush, however they did not feel like a rush offense cause they passed to get a lead and basically closed the game with the run game. Currently we just seem more like a run first, then play pass offense.
if we threw a 4 WR set out on the field, we could have a huge advantage , being we never use 4 WR sets , opposing coaches don't have much film to evaluate us, and it could be a real curveball for opposing DC's to prepare for, we seem to use a lot of exotic formations when it comes to run blocking , why not in the passing game? ...hopefully we see a few new wrinkles in the passing game this year, this is the year we should open up the playbook a little more
We cannot assume that if Harbaugh increases the number of passes the 49ers will maintain or increase their TOP. Rather we should assume that they will control the ball less due to an increase in incompletions. More passing attempts equal more failed passing attempts.

I would advocate an increase in passing attempts this season because Gore is slowly losing his ability to produce. I believe Lynch is the only reason the Hawks were able to beat this team last year. We are a running team with a great back who will produce like he's average. Gore has no more seasons of being a top back with greater than 1200 yards without running him into the ground. We need a young Gore. We need to match what the Hawks have in the backfield.

We also need that deep threat that can scare those safeties back into deep zones. We need a more rugged version of Percy Harvin. I believe our two top receivers should be posession type guys, and our third should be a speedster. If we run deep routes with Vernon and another guy I believe our running game would be unstoppable while our short passing will blossom into what the zone has been crying out for.

Our TOP has gone down each season it proves we are becoming worse at one of the coaching staffs most important goals. Our defense is fine. Baalke will resign the idiotic Culliver and draft a top CB and a Fast WR. From there he can really just find players he likes. We need a SS but, not until next year. We need a successor for Justin Smith but, not until next year. We have Lattimore and Carradine who are both promising understudies to great players. We have a bright future.
  • buck
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Originally posted by dwett:
Just to play devils advocate if we do increase our percentage of passes thrown that does not mean the efficiency stays the same.

True good point. Dangerous to make assumptions.


Originally posted by jvangeystel:
We cannot assume that if Harbaugh increases the number of passes the 49ers will maintain or increase their TOP. Rather we should assume that they will control the ball less due to an increase in incompletions. More passing attempts equal more failed passing attempts.

If we make assumptions, negative assumptions are those that should be made.
  • thl408
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  • Posts: 5,705
buck,

Thanks for posting those numbers for the WRsn and perfectly broken down according to QB targets. Can we also get the numbers for TEs and RBs, just so we can have a total breakdown of targets in the passing game?

Then we can have a complete picture as to how the catches are distributed when each QB was playing within this system. I'm mainly interested in Alex's numbers in 2012. The best timespan we can analyze for Kap is 13-14 when he had a full offseason to prepare as a starter. Even then it was his first full year in the league as a starter.
  • buck
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Originally posted by rk1642:
I have not followed closely either but was wondering a few things that may factor into our ratio of pass/run.

Is it considered a passing play if the qb tucks and runs.

Are there stats on scrambles?

We have a qb who is very good at scrambling so it makes sense to me that even if we do call for a pass, it may end up in the run column. This could skew states towards the run vs pass.

Interesting point.

First, scrambles are runs.

So a scramble is considered a run, but when we look at over-all play calling most, if not all, of those runs were called pass plays.

Ignoring the fact that those plays are simply considered runs might distort our view of the offensive scheme and/or the offensive play calling.

I do not know if there are any stats available on scrambles.

edit: After giving your point more consideration, I would say it is not only an interesting point, but also an excellent point. To my chagrin, I did not consider the scrambles.

Given the ostensible frequency of scrambles by Kaepernick, there is a good chance that number of pass played called is much higher than we envision.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 3, 2014 at 10:05 AM ]