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OUR PASSING GAME---ANOTHER LOOK

  • Giedi
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Originally posted by buck:
It would appear so.

The passing game appears to be relatively effective. In in my estimation we should be throwing the ball more than we did last year.

If both Kaepernick and the receiving corps improve their game, the passing attack should be even more effective.

A more balanced attack should also benefit the running game.

I truly expect Harbaugh and Roman to adjust the overall balance of the offense.

But, then I am a notoriously optimistic homer.

In the year of 2012, the passing attempts were at 436 for the year vs 417 this year, which tells me the offense won't change a whole lot. We had Delanie, Moss, Manningham, and Crabs that year and still we're hovering round 420 passes per year. I agree that the offense should be more effective, specially in the red zone if we have more passing targets, but I think this will still be 51% pass and 49% run offense.

Instead of more passes, I'd like to see more of an even distribution of passes to the WR's. If we have Quan, Crabs, Patton, VD, Vance and a High round WR draft pick - I'd like 25% Quan, 25% Crabs, 25% VD, 10% gore, 5% Patton, 5% Vance, and 5% High round WR draft pick. In other words, if Kaepernick is correctly reading the defense, there shouldn't be a preferred receiver that gets more than 30% of all the catches during the season, ideally speaking.
[ Edited by Giedi on Apr 2, 2014 at 1:02 PM ]
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by thl408:

Seriously though, thanks for posting that, buck. It just shows that efficiency numbers are there towards the top 10 of the league, while facing off against some very good defenses in 13-14.

The 1stdown % stat means little to me. It's about how many 1st downs you convert (% of conversion), no matter how you convert.

Attempts per TD also means very little to me. It's about how many TDs an offense scores, whether by run or pass. Gore is near the top in rushing TDs so that takes away from Kap needing to throw for TDs. What I find meaningful is passes per INT. That's a good measure of how well the QB is taking care of the ball when he throws it.

Your welcome.

I just tried to include as many of the stats as I could think of and still manage to have a readable post.

I hope that discussion focuses on the 49er passing game and does not become a QB vs. QB debate.


Agreed.

I think when we talk about stats, we need to look at who we are (philosophy and personnel). And who we are is the offense once Crabtree came back (not the other part of the year where VD was used as the other WR along side Boldin). 95% of the NFL would be thrilled having Boldin and Crabtree as their X & Z receivers and VD as their TE. Production wise, even last year, collectively, that's a hell of a group. Then you have Gore, Hunter, James, Miller and McDonald and a developing Patton? Wow. Now add in Lattimore? Anyway, that is a ton of weapons even before the draft (speed? VD and Patton both run 4.4's). And I heard this CK guy is pretty fast too and forces defenses to assign a "spy" to him.

We'll play teams like the Cardinals, Hawks, Carolina, GB, etc. so gaging our offense from when Crabtree came back is a very good "baseline." What we found was that VD went back to playing TE and his numbers dropped dramatically while Crabtree and Boldin became the two new primary targets and they alternated as the leading receiver (averaging around 4-5 catches a game). But having VD on the field at the same time and with the threat of CK's legs, it seemed to open up Gore, Miller, Hunter and James up big time in the "outlet" department; defenses completely ignored them. Also, guys such as McDonald had some tremendous openings as well (coaches already said they plan to incorporate him more in the passing game this year).

If the rumors are true in that the entire coaching staff is evaluating the passing game and perhaps, looking to develop more 3+ WR sets, I'm very curious to see how they do this with our current offensive structure and philosophy. Adding a "speed" WR outside to stretch the field is going to take VD or another WR off the field most likely.

Anyhow, the point is there are a ton of weapons on this team pre-draft already and the coaches are now saying they are more familiar with their own personnel and will look to revamp the passing game. Ya think? I think, IMHO, Baalke has forced that hand AND I get the impression he wasn't kidding either as he's gone after 3 or 4 "speed" guys in FA alone to drive that point home. Perhaps we're in the middle of a shift in the HaRoman philosophy which has bee ingrained for 10+ years. I hope so...I think we're all pretty tired of seeing so much talent being underutilized or not used at all esp. when you compare what other teams were able to accomplish with far less talent and depth than we had going into the year.

Let's do this!
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 2, 2014 at 1:18 PM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by Giedi:
In the year of 2012, the passing attempts were at 436 for the year vs 417 this year, which tells me the offense won't change a whole lot. We had Delanie, Moss, Manningham, and Crabs that year and still we're hovering round 420 passes per year. I agree that the offense should be more effective, specially in the red zone if we have more passing targets, but I think this will still be 51% pass and 49% run offense.

Instead of more passes, I'd like to see more of an even distribution of passes to the WR's. If we have Quan, Crabs, Patton, VD, Vance and a High round WR draft pick - I'd like 25% Quan, 25% Crabs, 25% VD, 10% gore, 5% Patton, 5% Vance, and 5% High round WR draft pick. In other words, if Kaepernick is correctly reading the defense, there shouldn't be a preferred receiver that gets more than 30% of all the catches during the season, ideally speaking.

Last year, we threw the ball 417 times and rushed the ball 505 times. That is a total of 922 attempts.

Last year, we rushed the ball about 54.8% of the time and threw the ball about 45.2% of the time.

In the last three years, we have passed the ball 1,304 times and rushed it 1,495 times.

In the past three years, we have passed the ball 46.59% of time and we have rushed it 53.41% of the time.


I would like to see an increase in the percentage of passes thrown.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 2, 2014 at 1:36 PM ]
  • buck
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Here is a table that shows our use of running in the passing game over the last three years.



  • Giedi
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Originally posted by buck:
Last year, we threw the ball 417 times and rushed the ball 505 times. That is a total of 922 attempts.

We rushed the ball about 54.8% of the time and threw the ball about 45.2% of the time.

I would like to see an increase in the percentage of passes thrown.

pass att 417 922 0.452277657
rush att 505 922 0.547722343

Clearly we can improve the passing offense. Being dead last in a couple of stats that you mentioned says to me that this pass offense can be improved. But it can improve only to a point, then after that, it will take a change in philosophy. Now in terms of philosophy, I'm a staunch advocate of **Defense wins Championships.** That's quoted from some unknown coach named Lombardi. What I'm trying to say is that I'd rather have improvement on *defense* than *offense.* If you say to me, "Ok I'm going to give you 10 percentage points in improvement and you have to assign them to offense or defense, how are you going to allocated the percentages?" My answer would be 8 points to defense and 2 points to offense.
  • buck
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Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by buck:
Last year, we threw the ball 417 times and rushed the ball 505 times. That is a total of 922 attempts.

We rushed the ball about 54.8% of the time and threw the ball about 45.2% of the time.

I would like to see an increase in the percentage of passes thrown.

pass att 417 922 0.452277657
rush att 505 922 0.547722343

Clearly we can improve the passing offense. Being dead last in a couple of stats that you mentioned says to me that this pass offense can be improved. But it can improve only to a point, then after that, it will take a change in philosophy. Now in terms of philosophy, I'm a staunch advocate of **Defense wins Championships.** That's quoted from some unknown coach named Lombardi. What I'm trying to say is that I'd rather have improvement on *defense* than *offense.* If you say to me, "Ok I'm going to give you 10 percentage points in improvement and you have to assign them to offense or defense, how are you going to allocated the percentages?" My answer would be 8 points to defense and 2 points to offense.

The options are not either x or y.

Yes. Improvements can only be made to a certain extent, but that is true for both the offensive and defensive.

Our defense is good, very good. I would like to see it get better.

Our offense is not nearly as good as our defense. I would like to see it get better.

Over the last three years, we have passed the ball 46.59% of the time and we have run it 53.41% of the time.

I would like to see us increase the percentage of times we throw the ball.

Maybe we should run the ball 51% of the time and pass it 49% of the time.

I do not know if that will require a change in philosophy, but if it does, it does.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by buck:
Last year, we threw the ball 417 times and rushed the ball 505 times. That is a total of 922 attempts.

We rushed the ball about 54.8% of the time and threw the ball about 45.2% of the time.

I would like to see an increase in the percentage of passes thrown.

pass att 417 922 0.452277657
rush att 505 922 0.547722343

Clearly we can improve the passing offense. Being dead last in a couple of stats that you mentioned says to me that this pass offense can be improved. But it can improve only to a point, then after that, it will take a change in philosophy. Now in terms of philosophy, I'm a staunch advocate of **Defense wins Championships.** That's quoted from some unknown coach named Lombardi. What I'm trying to say is that I'd rather have improvement on *defense* than *offense.* If you say to me, "Ok I'm going to give you 10 percentage points in improvement and you have to assign them to offense or defense, how are you going to allocated the percentages?" My answer would be 8 points to defense and 2 points to offense.

The options are not either x or y.

Yes. Improvements can only be made to a certain extent, but that is true for both the offensive and defensive.

Our defense is good, very good. I would like to see it get better.

Our offense is not nearly as good as our defense. I would like to see it get better.

Over the last three years, we have passed the ball 46.59% of the time and we have run it 53.41% of the time.

I would like to see us increase the percentage of times we throw the ball.

Maybe we should run the ball 51% of the time and pass it 49% of the time.

I do not know if that will require a change in philosophy, but if it does, it does.

Absolutely...and our first down production is the absolute KEY to our success. If we can get 4+ yards, the offense is wide open. If we can't, we'll continue to live in 2nd and 2rd and longs and be forced to live in the intermediate+ passing game (which we are).
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by buck:
It would appear so.

The passing game appears to be relatively effective. In in my estimation we should be throwing the ball more than we did last year.

If both Kaepernick and the receiving corps improve their game, the passing attack should be even more effective.

A more balanced attack should also benefit the running game.

I truly expect Harbaugh and Roman to adjust the overall balance of the offense.

But, then I am a notoriously optimistic homer.

In the year of 2012, the passing attempts were at 436 for the year vs 417 this year, which tells me the offense won't change a whole lot. We had Delanie, Moss, Manningham, and Crabs that year and still we're hovering round 420 passes per year. I agree that the offense should be more effective, specially in the red zone if we have more passing targets, but I think this will still be 51% pass and 49% run offense.

Instead of more passes, I'd like to see more of an even distribution of passes to the WR's. If we have Quan, Crabs, Patton, VD, Vance and a High round WR draft pick - I'd like 25% Quan, 25% Crabs, 25% VD, 10% gore, 5% Patton, 5% Vance, and 5% High round WR draft pick. In other words, if Kaepernick is correctly reading the defense, there shouldn't be a preferred receiver that gets more than 30% of all the catches during the season, ideally speaking.

The good news is that under Alex, th showed, the ball was distributed around very well to everyone (of course, he could rarely see anything beyond that tunnel vision). So it is possible in this offense (encouraging). CK is the opposite in this regards but if added, would be a nightmare to stop!
Joe and coach Walsh both made GOAT careers out of passing on first down, frequently on 2nd also. It is the one thing Coach H has steadfastly refused to do, and consequently, I think he cheated himself out of 2 SBs.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Joe and coach Walsh both made GOAT careers out of passing on first down, frequently on 2nd also. It is the one thing Coach H has steadfastly refused to do, and consequently, I think he cheated himself out of 2 SBs.

Meh. We lost the Superbowl and we lost the NFC CG on pass plays. In hindsight, one can argue that we should have run it and that Harbaugh didn't stick to his run first philosophy enough.
  • buck
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Here are our returning receiving corps and what they have done in SF.

This table only covers the last three years, the Harbaugh-Roman years.




[ Edited by buck on Apr 2, 2014 at 2:11 PM ]
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by NCommand:
The good news is that under Alex, th showed, the ball was distributed around very well to everyone (of course, he could rarely see anything beyond that tunnel vision). So it is possible in this offense (encouraging). CK is the opposite in this regards but if added, would be a nightmare to stop!

I'm fully confident that the passing offense can be improved, *even if* we don't draft anybody on offense, which is highly unlikely. The simple fact is that Anquan and Kaepernick will have two more years together in this offense, same with Patton and Vance, so that should point to an improvement in the passing game even if we don't do anything. But, I"m all for drafting a Brandon Cooks or another speedster to add to our arsenal of WR's, we always seem to be losing about two a year.

Personally, if Harbaugh and G-ro stick with the run first philosophy, then a powerful center is vital to that philosophy. If our offensive center can move the Nose man or the DT of the opposing defense one on one without help, we have a great advantage on the edges of the defense from a run perspective. I think Marcus Lattimor's cutting ability will be magnified if we can get good movement in the middle of a defense by a powerful center. Now, that will also help the play pass and the passing game efficiency if we can get good solid reliable ground yardage from our run game.
Originally posted by buck:
Here are our returning receiving corps and what they have done in SF.

This table only covers the last three years, the Harbaugh-Roman years.





So right on par...basically, it will be Crabtree (finally healthy, CK for a full year for the first time WITH Crabtree) and Boldin. And then a big drop to VD and even further after that. That is what we should expect unless there is a big shift in the passing game/philosophy. Thanks Buck!
buck, can you provide a chart similar to the one above that lists targets and completions for the first half of 12-13, when Alex was QB (only games where he started and finished)? I feel that is the real passing offense that Harbaugh wants to use, or what is closest to it. The reason I say 12-13 when Alex was QB is because by then Alex had a full year with two offseasons preparing as the starter (2011 semi-locked out offseason, all of the offseason leading up to 12-13). That's the best time span I can think of where the 49er QB had a good grasp of what Harbaugh wanted to do.

What I saw was a very nice distribution on WR receptions, but I never went into targets. I don't know if you are able to separate Alex's starts from Kap's starts in 12-13, but I do know that when Kap became starter, Crabs was the man that got a huge amount of targets, so we can't use 12-13's end of season numbers since that includes Alex's and Kap's totals.
  • buck
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Originally posted by thl408:
buck, can you provide a chart similar to the one above that lists targets and completions for the first half of 12-13, when Alex was QB (only games where he started and finished)? I feel that is the real passing offense that Harbaugh wants to use, or what is closest to it. The reason I say 12-13 when Alex was QB is because by then Alex had a full year with two offseasons preparing as the starter (2011 semi-locked out offseason, all of the offseason leading up to 12-13). That's the best time span I can think of where the 49er QB had a good grasp of what Harbaugh wanted to do.

What I saw was a very nice distribution on WR receptions, but I never went into targets. I don't know if you are able to separate Alex's starts from Kap's starts in 12-13, but I do know that when Kap became starter, Crabs was the man that got a huge amount of targets, so we can't use 12-13's end of season numbers since that includes Alex's and Kap's totals.

I am not sure that I want to do that.

I will not do anything that continues what I consider to an inane and dead Alex vs Collin debate.

But, I will check into the possibilities.