Reason and Emotion

Originally posted by NCommand:
Oh for sure. That was our Superbowl. Hell, it's been our Superbowl to win OR lose each of the last 3 years. But we also have to remember, it wasn't lost b/c of talent by any means. And that's sort of the point of this thread. I think it's fair to say that if there was that one big FA like a Deion Sanders out there, Baalke would have made the push for him, veteran minimum or not! No doubt. But so far, can anyone name one FA who genuinely made the difference for a team winning the Superbowl? Even the great Payton Manning could only get them there and that was it and they set a 1,000 regular season records. Seattle has built like us...through the draft and via a million acquisitions to date. Last year they had quite a few older veterans willing to play for less (sound familiar?) but in the end, it was still their core drafted players on the reason they went too and won the Superbowl. And now they are feeling the sting of success...already lost 6 key players in the first week.

I don't think that posters who have been somewhat critical of our FO this free-agency season are really saying that FA is the better way to improve our team in the long term as compared to the draft and developing our own players. However, a couple of key FA pick-ups could push a team that is on the brink of a world championship to the top of the mountain. For example, I would argue that Seattle made a couple of excellent moves in last year's FA period, picking up Avril and Bennett. Of course, RW and Beast Mode are still the main driving forces that make that team go, but these 2 players (Avril and Bennett) made BIG contributions to the Seahawks finally winning the SB last year. For example, Avril was the guy pushing A. Davis right into CK's face on that fateful INT tipped by Sherman in the final seconds of the NFCCG, and he should really get half of the credit for helping Seattle survive that game. Then, in the SB, he forced another INT that led to a Seattle TD. Bennett also showed up big-time for Seattle in several games and helped improve their pass rush significantly. Without those 2 players, would SEA have been the SB champion? A good case can be made that no, they wouldn't have.
The NFL is now a league of parity, where most teams are so close to one another talent-wise, that just a bit of added talent can help a team differentiate itself from all the rest. Last year, that team was SEA. Can the Niners be this year's version? At the end of the day, though, I don't really care where that differentiating element comes from, FA or the Draft, as long as the Niners can make THAT move that will push them over the top.

Has free agency ever been the reason a team won a Super Bowl? One could argue the 1994-95 season was but that may be the extent of it. In fact the term free agency is quite the oxymoron. Its anything but free and is usually the cause of a teams decline versus its ascension.

Originally posted by ace52:
I don't think that posters who have been somewhat critical of our FO this free-agency season are really saying that FA is the better way to improve our team in the long term as compared to the draft and developing our own players. However, a couple of key FA pick-ups could push a team that is on the brink of a world championship to the top of the mountain. For example, I would argue that Seattle made a couple of excellent moves in last year's FA period, picking up Avril and Bennett. Of course, RW and Beast Mode are still the main driving forces that make that team go, but these 2 players (Avril and Bennett) made BIG contributions to the Seahawks finally winning the SB last year. For example, Avril was the guy pushing A. Davis right into CK's face on that fateful INT tipped by Sherman in the final seconds of the NFCCG, and he should really get half of the credit for helping Seattle survive that game. Then, in the SB, he forced another INT that led to a Seattle TD. Bennett also showed up big-time for Seattle in several games and helped improve their pass rush significantly. Without those 2 players, would SEA have been the SB champion? A good case can be made that no, they wouldn't have.
The NFL is now a league of parity, where most teams are so close to one another talent-wise, that just a bit of added talent can help a team differentiate itself from all the rest. Last year, that team was SEA. Can the Niners be this year's version? At the end of the day, though, I don't really care where that differentiating element comes from, FA or the Draft, as long as the Niners can make THAT move that will push them over the top.

I thought Michael Bennett was a UFA in 2009.

Do you think there is any luck involved in winning a Super Bowl? Or is the winner always and clearly the best team?
If one play goes different for us, one call, during the season, we could be the Super Bowl Champs.

People have this idea that if they toss the coin with their left hand once and it turns up "heads", then that is proof that tossing the coin with the left hand is the reason it came up heads. But the sample size is only "1".

Every team signs free agents and draft players every year, therefore any given team that wins the Super Bowl, is going to have new players on their team. That doesn't mean those new players got them "over the hump", as if there is some critical mass that must be achieved before you can win the Super Bowl.
There are plenty of teams that can win the Super Bowl.

So it's not a question of "getting over the hump", its a question of "how talented is your team"? The more talented your team, the better your chance of winning the Super Bowl.
I think we are the most talented team in the league. I think Seattle had some lucky bounces last year, and it was their year. Seattle also has an incredible home field advantage. Those things allowed them to win the Super Bowl. Almost every Super Bowl winner needs a little bit of luck at some point during the season.

We have to stay the course with our formula, and continue to do the things we do, so we will continue to have the most (or one of the most) talented teams in the league. That is all we can do (well, we did upgrade the Stadium too), it is all we can control. We can't control the referees, we can't control lucky bounces etc.

Originally posted by BrianGO:

Originally posted by ace52:
I don't think that posters who have been somewhat critical of our FO this free-agency season are really saying that FA is the better way to improve our team in the long term as compared to the draft and developing our own players. However, a couple of key FA pick-ups could push a team that is on the brink of a world championship to the top of the mountain. For example, I would argue that Seattle made a couple of excellent moves in last year's FA period, picking up Avril and Bennett. Of course, RW and Beast Mode are still the main driving forces that make that team go, but these 2 players (Avril and Bennett) made BIG contributions to the Seahawks finally winning the SB last year. For example, Avril was the guy pushing A. Davis right into CK's face on that fateful INT tipped by Sherman in the final seconds of the NFCCG, and he should really get half of the credit for helping Seattle survive that game. Then, in the SB, he forced another INT that led to a Seattle TD. Bennett also showed up big-time for Seattle in several games and helped improve their pass rush significantly. Without those 2 players, would SEA have been the SB champion? A good case can be made that no, they wouldn't have.
The NFL is now a league of parity, where most teams are so close to one another talent-wise, that just a bit of added talent can help a team differentiate itself from all the rest. Last year, that team was SEA. Can the Niners be this year's version? At the end of the day, though, I don't really care where that differentiating element comes from, FA or the Draft, as long as the Niners can make THAT move that will push them over the top.

I thought Michael Bennett was a UFA in 2009.

Do you think there is any luck involved in winning a Super Bowl? Or is the winner always and clearly the best team?
If one play goes different for us, one call, during the season, we could be the Super Bowl Champs.

People have this idea that if they toss the coin with their left hand once and it turns up "heads", then that is proof that tossing the coin with the left hand is the reason it came up heads. But the sample size is only "1".

Every team signs free agents and draft players every year, therefore any given team that wins the Super Bowl, is going to have new players on their team. That doesn't mean those new players got them "over the hump", as if there is some critical mass that must be achieved before you can win the Super Bowl.
There are plenty of teams that can win the Super Bowl.

So it's not a question of "getting over the hump", its a question of "how talented is your team"? The more talented your team, the better your chance of winning the Super Bowl.
I think we are the most talented team in the league. I think Seattle had some lucky bounces last year, and it was their year. Seattle also has an incredible home field advantage. Those things allowed them to win the Super Bowl. Almost every Super Bowl winner needs a little bit of luck at some point during the season.

We have to stay the course with our formula, and continue to do the things we do, so we will continue to have the most (or one of the most) talented teams in the league. That is all we can do (well, we did upgrade the Stadium too), it is all we can control. We can't control the referees, we can't control lucky bounces etc.

ace52....thank you for taking the time to explore the opposite side of the perspective here; very much appreciate it. Like anything, I think the truth lies somewhere in between. Last year, and let's be honest here, Boldin may have been the single biggest FA/trade signing of the entire 2013 season. Had he not been with us, we may not even have been in position to face Seattle in the playoffs...heck, we may not have even made the playoffs which has happened to so many other teams after going to a Suprbowl the previous year. So there IS merit in acquiring the right player who has the potential to come through when it counts most. These are FA's that show consistency throughout their careers. These are players, like Sanders, like Boldin, who are known commodities.

My contention throughout this thread is that Baalke is constantly searching for ANY player that can help get us over the hump...whether that's an UDFA who suddenly comes out of nowhere, earns a starting #1 CB role outright over established veterans and who contributes to "the play" at Candlestick's final game or someone from the outside who fits right in and makes the most of his opportunities with us in pursuit of a Championship. Baalke has been linked to how many FA's so far this year? A ton!
The only thing we can shine a negative conotation on is our inability to "sell" ourselves to these older veterans. Seattle was able to sell their environment and in many ways, lucked out to have guys like Avril and Bennett not only come on the market but come to the team late and on reasonable contracts given they were proven commodities. On the flip side, guys on our team were done purusing a Championship and went where the $ was highest (Goldson/Whitner & Brown). That's on them, not this FO. So we need to be careful with that b/c the FO clearly tried. We also need to remember that every single player we've approached at an early statge, or once proven, HAS signed with us and has become part of "our core." That says something as well and should be greatly respected on both accounts.

I agree that it was really the drafted core that got to and won Seattle the Superbowl. But the right pieces, played at the right times (i.e 3rd down pass rushers) also may have helped make a difference so the lesson here is: Make sure to sell yourself and your mission as best your can. I think what is unique with their situation too was that aside from 1 position at DT, all the other positions were wide open. For us? We are 1 and 2 and even 3-deep in positions after 4 years of building. Teams are lusting after our cast-offs so making that sell annually gets harder and harder and we're into year 3 of this reality.

FA's want three things in this order: 1) top $ 2) to start and 3) a real chance at a Championship and cementing their legacy.

We can only offer #3 (Bethea) and a few players of our own chose #1 & #2 (Whitner/Goldson & Brown). We want players like Bethea!

This FO has a plan and we need to stick to it!

Originally posted by ApatheticIAm:
The ultimate goal is to win SB's. So, our FO has NOT built the best possible team. They have tried everything thus far except bring in a high-profile FA. It wouldn't hurt at this point. 3 NFC Championships and a SB with nothing to show for it. Sure they can all be counted as moral victories, but who likes those?

Yes the goal is to win SB, so how can you win SB if you mortguage the future on one player for that one season? To get that player, you have to let go several good players. When you bring in a player that hasn't proved anything the repercussions on your cap space will be huge. Remeber the past two seasons when our ILB got hurt? It is guys like those that will have to cut to get that one player. Our ST will also suffer. You thought the ST sucked when Kyle botched it or they let the Ravens run one back? Think how much more worse it would be to cut guys that are our gunners and what not. In hind sight, it would affect the season, yes the season cause they would because they are worse, woul lose one or two games, enough perhaps to effect the seeding in the playoff.

Guys like Brock would be released, we could not afford to do with Tank and Lattimore where they can be eased in cause we would guy now.

Other players will demand money, even when their contract ain't up, the concept of playing and for the team goes out the door. He hasn't anything-I have been loyal and produced. Especially if the player you bring in doesn't pull their weight. Look around the league at how successful it was for those teams. Revis was let go, the one great player vs the ability to get several good players. Then when you take a hit like Revis, you have to gut your team and you are out of the hunt. Your goal of winning the SB is now vanished.

As far as talent goes in those last three years. I would argue otherwise, we had the talent, we were one play short, maybe two. In those cases, it can be argued that it could be reversed if better coaching decisions had been made. Or the player. Getting that player won't change things. Example-we had that player in Ginn, but he got hurt and Kyke had to play, the coaches should told Kyle-play it safe, no need to be a hero. We could not bring in another player-NO CAP SPACE and there are certain restrictions that teams can do in roster moves during the playoffs. The SB and the last NFC title game, either a better choice of plays by the coaching staff or a better decision by Kaep on that one play would have been a different outcome. Even if you got a different wr Kaep is comfortable with Crabs VD and Boldin-so it would not have mattered. If that player was a defensive player-then it again would not have mattered.

As it is, the niners are always there and they will win one or two, but they will always be competitive, I rather be this way than like the cowboys, redskins and before that eagles. Speaking of which getting those guys who you or anyone else have no idea will help or not (it is not a guarentee-otherwise Revis would not be let go by the Bucs after only one season), will affect the future of keeping guys that we need to keep. Aldon, Kaep etc.

Some of the players that were being bandied about for signing were not going to come here unless you offered more money than they signed for. It is a strategic ploy on their part. One year deal, prove they can play for these teams and ressurect that teams offense or defense as well as their value. If you go to the niners, people may still not pay you much cause, personnel people will say he succeeded cause he was surrounded by a good supporting cast. So the players that signed with those teams may want double that from the niners. Remember, just they signed for that amount with that team, doesn't mean they will sign for the same amount with another team. If they come to the niners and willing to compete, you know they want to win more than they want the money. THATS THE PLAYER YOU WANT. Like Dorsey.


In case you have a short memory, have you forgoton what Jonas Jennings and Nate Clements signing and how they affected our ability to keep and make moves?

FREE AGENT SCOREBOARD


http://www.gbnreport.com/freeagentscoreboard.html


This site might be a day or two behind, but it is useful.

Originally posted by BrianGO:

I thought Michael Bennett was a UFA in 2009.

Do you think there is any luck involved in winning a Super Bowl? Or is the winner always and clearly the best team?
If one play goes different for us, one call, during the season, we could be the Super Bowl Champs.

People have this idea that if they toss the coin with their left hand once and it turns up "heads", then that is proof that tossing the coin with the left hand is the reason it came up heads. But the sample size is only "1".

Every team signs free agents and draft players every year, therefore any given team that wins the Super Bowl, is going to have new players on their team. That doesn't mean those new players got them "over the hump", as if there is some critical mass that must be achieved before you can win the Super Bowl.
There are plenty of teams that can win the Super Bowl.

So it's not a question of "getting over the hump", its a question of "how talented is your team"? The more talented your team, the better your chance of winning the Super Bowl.
I think we are the most talented team in the league. I think Seattle had some lucky bounces last year, and it was their year. Seattle also has an incredible home field advantage. Those things allowed them to win the Super Bowl. Almost every Super Bowl winner needs a little bit of luck at some point during the season.

We have to stay the course with our formula, and continue to do the things we do, so we will continue to have the most (or one of the most) talented teams in the league. That is all we can do (well, we did upgrade the Stadium too), it is all we can control. We can't control the referees, we can't control lucky bounces etc.

Bennett signed with Seattle in 2009 as an UDFA, was waived and went to Tampa, then came back to SEA in 2013 as an UFA.

I do think that the FAs that Seattle signed last year did help them take that next step toward becoming a SB champion. In the previous playoffs, Seattle's D was gashed by the Falcons and they fell behind 20-0 before coming back in the 4th, only to fall short and watch ATL win by a field goal. The Seahawks was not generating enough pass rush in that game with their DL, and frequently had to bring their DBs on blitzes to compensate. Fast forward one year. Seattle went out and got a couple of good pass rushers and voila, their rush forced CK into making a crucial mistake to win them the NFCCG, then completely befuddled and ultimately humbled Manning in the SB.

I believe that SEA's FO did well in addressing a perceived weakness in their armor, and was rewarded with a SB trophy. What was the chink in the Niners' armor the past couple of seasons? The secondary. Last year, on a few occasions, analysts have mentioned that other teams believed that "people can go deep on the Niners". I don't think that is a wrong belief because even I, as a 49ers fan, could see that our secondary struggled in some of the biggest games that they played in over that span. That's why I wanted our FO to get Thurmond, not because I blindly believe in the power of free agency, but because I've seen that guy play and think that he could help shore up an area of need in our team (especially after the departure of Brown). However, if our FO can find an equivalent player in the draft to help us, then I'm even happier because it would cost us less. It's just that with draft picks, all we have to go on are their college tapes, and sometimes, someone who looked like Superman in college will play like Clark Kent when he is facing live bullets in an NFL game.

FWIW, here is my updated tracker, by position, with terms, total and guaranteed money.

http://pigskinprospects.com/nfl-free-agents/

The fact that we beat down the pack, panthers , and if not for 3 fourth quarter turnovers the hawks too. all on the road. We have our team intact and this FA should speak volumes as to the FOs confidence in the team we are fielding and the players we haven't seen yet. It wasn't our year. In order to win the Superbowl you need a supremely talented team a killer coaching staff and a little luck along the way. Now aside from getting Q we had nearly no luck last year but still almost pulled it off. If Amahd didn't get wrongly penalized we are likely polishing #6. We are close and have been and I am satisfied with the current talent level on our team we are fielding. Plus we got a new stadium and want to be a SB contender for years to come and I think its pretty obvious our frugal moves reflect that interest of the owners. Yeah it would be killer to win SB49 n all but 50 is in our house.. We will have our year soon( yeah 2011 seemed like the year we had the luck)

I agree that chasing expensive FA's is a dangerous game. But letting talent walk is too ... I think that most people would feel better if we had resigned Tarrell. There might be more to that story than vain veteran looking for $$ and a guarantee to start.

I sense the FO in damage control mode with all the stories about Cully being projected to start and so on. Didn't pick up on that at all in 2012.

Letting Tarell go is not a lethal development if we get depth in the draft.

There's still plenty of time to find FA gems towards camp. We'll be negotiating in a more favorable milieu as well.

Originally posted by BrianGO:

Every team signs free agents and draft players every year, therefore any given team that wins the Super Bowl, is going to have new players on their team. That doesn't mean those new players got them "over the hump", as if there is some critical mass that must be achieved before you can win the Super Bowl.
There are plenty of teams that can win the Super Bowl.

So it's not a question of "getting over the hump", its a question of "how talented is your team"? The more talented your team, the better your chance of winning the Super Bowl.
I think we are the most talented team in the league. I think Seattle had some lucky bounces last year, and it was their year. Seattle also has an incredible home field advantage. Those things allowed them to win the Super Bowl. Almost every Super Bowl winner needs a little bit of luck at some point during the season.

We have to stay the course with our formula, and continue to do the things we do, so we will continue to have the most (or one of the most) talented teams in the league. That is all we can do (well, we did upgrade the Stadium too), it is all we can control. We can't control the referees, we can't control lucky bounces etc.

That is pretty much how I feel about it. You can make some of your own luck by putting together a talented team and excellent coaches, but to win the Super Bowl you also have to have luck that is just plain luck. An injury to a key player is a good example of luck that is just plain bad luck.

But I also want to push back against the idea that it's about winning the Super Bowl or the season is a bust. Of course, the goal is to win a Super Bowl and I'm sure that is the dream of every player and coach as well as the fans, but I don't think that not making that goal means the season is a bust. For me, this was a great season to watch the team as a fan. I saw a team that was struggling early in the season go on a long win streak that almost got them to the Super Bowl. That made it a great season for me. As long as they play as a band of brothers willing to put the team first (mostly) and are in the hunt to win it all I'm going to enjoy watching the 9ers play. I like fudge sundaes even if there is no cherry on the top. And you know what... I think this year we get a sundae with a cherry on the top!

Originally posted by buck:
FREE AGENT SCOREBOARD


http://www.gbnreport.com/freeagentscoreboard.html


This site might be a day or two behind, but it is useful.

Thank you Buck!

Seattle plays a 4-3 and had all the right veteran pass rushing players come available and all signed for cheap. They had a 7-man pass rushing DL (a weakness the prior year) which is unheard of now. But look what happened in 2014 as a result:

03/15/2013 Signed DE Michael Bennett - Signed a 1-year $4.8M. Now, he signed for 4-years, $28.5 million deal, with $16 million guaranteed. Bennett will make $10 million in the first year, $6 million in the second year, $5 million in the third year and $7.5 million in the final year. As a result they lost WR Golden Tate (DET); OT Breno Giacomimi (NYJ); S Chris Maragos (PHI); DT Clint McDonald (TB); CB Brandon Browner (NE); CB Walter Thurmond (NYG) and had to release DE's Chris Clemons, DT Red Bryant & WR Sidney Rice.

03/14/2013 Signed DE Cliff Avril - Came as a shock because his deal was only for 2-years $15M. Avril was hoping for a long-term deal worth a lot more than $7.5 million per year, but clearly the market didn't develop as he had hoped. It's worth noting that a year ago, Avril turned down an offer from the Lions worth a reported $30 million over three years. He played on the franchise tag and made $10.6 million in 2012, so if you add that to his new two-year deal, he's set to make $25.6 million over a three-year span. That's $4.6 million less than the deal he turned down from the Lions, so his gamble didn't really pay off from a financial standpoint. His contract is up after this year and the cycle should repeat like it did for Bennett (see above).

So the lesson remains. If we have a weakness, say CB, and a very very good player comes available late in FA and we can get them on the cheap, we should do it knowing it's a one-year rental only. BUT, signing this player long-term and for the price they want/deserve will cost you more than you realize.

Seattle got VERY lucky for one year!

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
I agree that chasing expensive FA's is a dangerous game. But letting talent walk is too ... I think that most people would feel better if we had resigned Tarrell. There might be more to that story than vain veteran looking for $$ and a guarantee to start.

I sense the FO in damage control mode with all the stories about Cully being projected to start and so on. Didn't pick up on that at all in 2012.

Letting Tarell go is not a lethal development if we get depth in the draft.

There's still plenty of time to find FA gems towards camp. We'll be negotiating in a more favorable milieu as well.

I really wouldn't call what happened with Brown "letting him go." They offered him a perfectly legitimate contract which was, in one particular way, better than the one he took with the Raiders. He CHOSE to go and he explained why - he knew the Niners wanted to get younger at the corner position and he wanted more playing time. He also knows perfectly well what's going to happen in the draft. The Niners will probably trade up to get a stud corner. In fact, they'll probably trade up a couple times and get a stud receiver too. I just don't see any way they're going to use all of those 12 picks on players.

I posted this in another thread, but think it fits in here also.

How have the other teams in the NFC West be doing this off season?

Here is what I have found. I think it is accurate.

ARIZONA

Added/Retained

OT Jared Veldheer (OAK); C Ted Larsen (TB); RB Jon Dwyer (PIT); WR Ted Ginn (CAR) TE John Carlson (MIN)

Lost

LB Karlos Dansby (CLE); WR Andre Roberts (WAS); TE Jim Dray (CLE)

Seattle

Added/Retained

DE Bennett, Michael; K Hauschka, Steven; TE McCoy, Anthony; DT McDaniel, Tony; WR Price, Taylor(JACK)

Lost

WR Golden Tate (DET); OT Breno Giacomimi (NYJ); S Chris Maragos (PHI); DT Clint McDonald (TB);
CB Brandon Browner (NE); CB Walter Thurmond (NYG) DE Red Bryant (Jack); DE Chris Clemons (Jack)

St. Louis

Added/Retained

OL Roger Saffold; OLB Jo-Lon, Dunbar

Lost

OG Chris Williams (BUF); OG Shelley Smith (MIA)QB Kellen Clemens(SD); CB Courtland Finnegan (MIA); TE Mike McNeil (CAR)


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