Reason and Emotion

Originally posted by matt49er:
this is a great point you bring up AB. As an extension to that, this draft is extremely deep at the WR position, a lot of teams will wrap up their needs this off season in the draft at the position which could really benefit the 49ers in the Crabtree situation by shrinking the market with less teams vying for receivers next off season.

I believe the draft is way way deep at WR. So many good options in early-late rounds. Can't wait till May. I hope Crabs will take a reasonable deal to stay.

My whole thing is...

1.) In the salary-cap era, it is HARD to keep winning. There are a few exceptions like NE who, since 2001, has kept winning. That is unheard of. If you look at any other "winning" team, most kept that streak alive 3-4 years before they fell into disparity again. I believe in probabilities and statistics.

2.) It's hard to ignore that our Niners have been to 3-straight NFC championships and a SB. That never happens. Correct me if i'm wrong, but there are 2 other teams who have done that, the Eagles most recently and the Bills during the early 90's (again salary cap era). Do you believe in conspiracies? The NFL might have an attitude towards us. A "Not these guys again." You thought it was hard to get to that third one? It would be monumental if we got to a fourth. Again, probabilities.

3.) At one point you should sign a big-name FA. Obviously you want the player to be worth it and the price to be right. I don't think it would have been too much to bring in Decker, Steve Smith, or one of those corners that were on the market. It shows the fans that you care and brings a little bit of excitement going forward into next season. That can go a long way. When the Eagles brought in TO the first year, that signing single-handedly got them over the NFCCG hump and into the SB (yes I know they didn't win it but that's not my point). It's a mental and psychological game.

4.) Everyone is a year older. Willis, Bowman, J. Smith, V. Davis, F Gore, Boldin etc are all a year older. We cannot expect them to play at top-level forever. Especially for guys like Boldin and J. Smith. We can already see J. Smith starting to play a little slower (not by much) because of his age. Boldin balled out last year, but he is an old-fellow and father time will catch up with him. Our window is now and it is slipping. Sure, we can build through the draft, but that only gets you so far. We can't just replace those guys. Maybe we will hit on some players, but not all. We were so lucky with Aldon and Eric Reid IMO. I did not expect them to be beasts out of the gate. Hopefully drafting like that continues, but we can't count on it.

To sum this all up, yes we should be worried because that's what fans do. We should be worried that our team will fall off. We have reason to be, but not this year coming up. I am concerned where we will be in a short 5 years however.

Originally posted by WildBill:
There are a lot of people (I won't be as technical as the OP) who just don't understand the rules and want the niners to sign FA, not really for the team, but for their own personnel satisfaction that makes them (and this is key) like they are doing something that they can grasp or latch onto. Its like oxygen, e they can't see it and they don't take into consideration cause its taken for granted, only when all hell is busting loose do they acknowledge it, but then they point fingers and say why didn't we...when everyone was telling them from the begining it has to be taken into account.

With that said, everything has an ebb and flow like the chinese tai chi symbol of yin and yang. However, some have a bigger circle or orbit if you will than others. The niners are seeking to have a wide berth. Others don't see that, they only know that we are orbiting and soon it will be come full circle and we need to rush. When people compare to other teams it is like kids, when you raise them each is different. Like for the broncos their's is different-how long will Payton last? Of course there are other factors at play to. As one poster stated having a QB that is stable helps and replacing him later helps keep the orbit wide. Like Montana to Young or Payton to Luck. Coaching is also key-like Walsh to Seifert. As well as the fron office such as Pittsburgh and the Giants and the Packers-they may have taken a step back, but they are always capable of making you look over your shoulder. The more you have of these and other things the bigger your orbit.

I have seen so many posts, that just say sign sign sign, grab grab, and they say why is this team or that team signing these players, why can't we like them. You really want to find out? then do the research the way many posters do on the niners like AB does with contract numbers and you will have your answer. Then you will know why we don't just empty the bank. These same people are like the Democrats-they want want want this program that program, tell me who is going to pay, how are we going to pay? Now we the govt is in cap hell, unlike the govt though, a team gets penalized. Some say take the penalty. They are only looking at the small picture not the big picture. Even if you go for it - you may not get the pie. Look around the league how many teams have failed that way. Look at the ones that succeed. They are always in the hunt, as long as you are in the hunt there is a chance. The niners are looking to alway be in the hunt.

Those who like to compare to other teams forget they fall off to. Seattle has been quiet on the FA market. They will fall off soon, because they have all those young players they have to sign or lose. So Ebb and Flow, but who manages to keep a longer flow going? That is what the niners are doing- so that they will alway be in the hunt.

Regarding the bolded, I agree, and like that the 49ers are going about it in this fashion. And you nailed it with "as long as you are in the hunt there is a chance". In this age of parity in the NFL, it's a viable tactic to stay in the hunt and hope for the best. While it may not seem aggressive enough to those that want more splashy activity during the UFA period, it is a strategy that sets the team up with always having a shot over a longer period of time. It keeps the stadium full, keeps the team talked about on a national scale, and provides a desirable place to go for UFAs that aren't just looking for the highest bidder.

I'm with the crowd that thinks Baalke's strategy is a good one. I don't like the going for broke attitude that some of these other teams are using, although I understand that they have old QBs, and that changes their strategy. The 49ers aren't in the same situation where the strength and identity of the team is down to 1 or 2 years, like the Pats/Broncos. The 49er defense will remain a top5 squad because of the talent and coaching on that side of the ball. Kap will be trending up as long as he and Harbaugh stay hungry. The 49ers can go for a sustainable model provided they continue to draft well while identifying the true core players.

The 49ers have a chance to build a strong, rejuvenated fanbase with this core of 49er players. There are many fans that do not remember the 95 SB victory because they were too young. Those fans are now young professionals in their early 30s. The 49ers want their loyalty (money) and a good way to do it is prolonged success. Then these early 30s people will dress their kids in 49ers gear which hopefully keeps it going. We know it's been tough times not too long ago.

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Suffice to say, you and I just see things very differently. There are a few things worth responding to that aren't just pure difference of opinion. First is that we have more than double that amount of salary cap room because we have Roger's salary coming off the books and second is that you want to compare spending any money on FAs and making deliberate efforts to shore up weakness on this team to what hapless franchises have done going nuts in free agency.

Time will tell if rooks and also rans coming off injuries will be enough to get us over the hump, but I have significant concerns that they won't be. I don't want us to be the Donovan McNabb/Andy Reid Eagles, and that seems to be the direction we are heading to me. Always a step behind the best teams in the league because we are too stubborn to believe that what we are doing isn't quite good enough, while others go out and take the extra steps needed.

We significantly disagree that proven vet, even a so called "average" one isn't a major upgrade over someone like Baldwin or relying on rookies or a young, virtual rookie coming off injuries to fill a key role on a SB caliber team. Sure we have a draft coming up. And it could be stellar, like 2011, or it could be a complete bust like 2012. Or somewhere in-between. I'd rather not bank on every critical need being filled in that draft when any player drafted is 50/50 at best to be able to compete in the NFL and there are proven NFL vets that might fill at least one or two of those needs.

And we also couldn't disagree more on the SB window. That is absolutely a real thing. Sure the Pats have been in contention for a while, but they haven't won one in 9 years. The Steve Young Niners were in constant contention, but until they went all in, they couldn't get over the hump. We don't know for sure if Kap will improve or regress over the next few years, or even if he, Crabtree, Iupati or even Harbaugh for that matter will be on the team a few years from now. It's certainly not impossible, especially if we give Kap a big contract, that in a few years, most of our key players that got us here could be gone. Crabs could sign elsewhere, Boldin may retire, VD will be 32-33, and could either be gone or less effective. Willis, Staley, Brooks, are all going to be in their 30s. At what point do we need to press to fill the gaps between SB champs and contenders?

I am not saying we needed to sign anyone in particular, or that the off season as been a "bust". It's what, 5-6 days old? There's plenty of time and still some decent players unsigned. Plus there will be cuts from other teams, possible trades, and we will see what the draft yields. But, so far, I don't see us getting better, just maintaining. And in the NFL, if you stay the same, you are falling behind, because someone around you is getting better. We are so damn close to being an absolutely dominant team that has a chance to win multiple SBs, I'd just like us to make the little extra push to go from legit contender to truly elite, so that the SB goes through us. And I don't think we have done that.

First let us make the correction- the money for Carlos Rogers has already been accounted for. The four million that we have is it. There is no additional money. Carlos was released/cut on 3/11/14. hat money was used right away. You forget that, whatever cap space he had was used in signing Boldin and our kicker. Then more of it was used when we aquired Gabbert and Martin. Still more of it was used to get cook and resign wright and Dobbs. The remaining money was going to be used for either Edleman or Thurmond. but they opted out to go elsewhere. Including our own terrel. Why a player leaves or choses another team varies. Throwing more money just to bring them here is not the answer-there is a value placed on players and one should stick to it and NOT OVERPAY. Edleman is a by product of Brady and the system. Thurmond had a problem with being suspended and injuries-not worth the risk. Who is left that is worth it? How much do you think these players that you want are worth. Most important-do they fit the system of the 49ers? If yu say yes- I am going to say prove it. How do you know? Who is to say a rookie can't come in and contribute like Reid did. He did way better than Goldson. Who is to say that our new Safety won't do as good if not better. Rookies can do very well- you forget the three, count them three rookies in the niners first sb win. As for wr, whoever comes in will not see the field as much as you'd think and that is a concern. Manningham, Moss all tried and failed-they were notable free agents. If you are going to say young ones like Sanders-he is not all that great. Hell-a coveted player that fans wanted -Wallace, he didn't do much. At least not worth his weight in gold.

Just as some people say-we should pick this player in the draft-but according to those in the know some of these players don't fit the system. Big name, but...there is no need to satisfy the fans whims. If we make a mistake on who we think the niners should sign or go after, we just go oh well I was mistaken. GM does it, they get fired-even a highly regarded guy like Lombardi. If you believe in a system and it works stick with it. The people who fail in life are the ones who waiver and start giving into the joe blows and arm chair fans. T

Originally posted by ApatheticIAm:
My whole thing is...

1.) In the salary-cap era, it is HARD to keep winning. There are a few exceptions like NE who, since 2001, has kept winning. That is unheard of. If you look at any other "winning" team, most kept that streak alive 3-4 years before they fell into disparity again. I believe in probabilities and statistics.

2.) It's hard to ignore that our Niners have been to 3-straight NFC championships and a SB. That never happens. Correct me if i'm wrong, but there are 2 other teams who have done that, the Eagles most recently and the Bills during the early 90's (again salary cap era). Do you believe in conspiracies? The NFL might have an attitude towards us. A "Not these guys again." You thought it was hard to get to that third one? It would be monumental if we got to a fourth. Again, probabilities.

3.) At one point you should sign a big-name FA. Obviously you want the player to be worth it and the price to be right. I don't think it would have been too much to bring in Decker, Steve Smith, or one of those corners that were on the market. It shows the fans that you care and brings a little bit of excitement going forward into next season. That can go a long way. When the Eagles brought in TO the first year, that signing single-handedly got them over the NFCCG hump and into the SB (yes I know they didn't win it but that's not my point). It's a mental and psychological game.

4.) Everyone is a year older. Willis, Bowman, J. Smith, V. Davis, F Gore, Boldin etc are all a year older. We cannot expect them to play at top-level forever. Especially for guys like Boldin and J. Smith. We can already see J. Smith starting to play a little slower (not by much) because of his age. Boldin balled out last year, but he is an old-fellow and father time will catch up with him. Our window is now and it is slipping. Sure, we can build through the draft, but that only gets you so far. We can't just replace those guys. Maybe we will hit on some players, but not all. We were so lucky with Aldon and Eric Reid IMO. I did not expect them to be beasts out of the gate. Hopefully drafting like that continues, but we can't count on it.

To sum this all up, yes we should be worried because that's what fans do. We should be worried that our team will fall off. We have reason to be, but not this year coming up. I am concerned where we will be in a short 5 years however.

I have a problem with the bolded, just to show the fans you care? As a GM their job is not to build interest and please the fans on paper in the offseason, it is to make the best team possible so that fans will be pleased during the season. You don't win games on paper. Redskins and cowboys make a lot of noise and during the Andy reid era they made noise too durng the off season, but ended up a paper tigers.

Some players may not want to come to your team unless you offer them more than they are worth. Do you think a steve smith wants to play behind boldin and crabtree? Look at what they signed for before saying you don't think it would have cost that not much. Also look at the team they went to-was there competition?

Originally posted by WildBill:

Originally posted by ApatheticIAm:
My whole thing is...

1.) In the salary-cap era, it is HARD to keep winning. There are a few exceptions like NE who, since 2001, has kept winning. That is unheard of. If you look at any other "winning" team, most kept that streak alive 3-4 years before they fell into disparity again. I believe in probabilities and statistics.

2.) It's hard to ignore that our Niners have been to 3-straight NFC championships and a SB. That never happens. Correct me if i'm wrong, but there are 2 other teams who have done that, the Eagles most recently and the Bills during the early 90's (again salary cap era). Do you believe in conspiracies? The NFL might have an attitude towards us. A "Not these guys again." You thought it was hard to get to that third one? It would be monumental if we got to a fourth. Again, probabilities.

3.) At one point you should sign a big-name FA. Obviously you want the player to be worth it and the price to be right. I don't think it would have been too much to bring in Decker, Steve Smith, or one of those corners that were on the market. It shows the fans that you care and brings a little bit of excitement going forward into next season. That can go a long way. When the Eagles brought in TO the first year, that signing single-handedly got them over the NFCCG hump and into the SB (yes I know they didn't win it but that's not my point). It's a mental and psychological game.

4.) Everyone is a year older. Willis, Bowman, J. Smith, V. Davis, F Gore, Boldin etc are all a year older. We cannot expect them to play at top-level forever. Especially for guys like Boldin and J. Smith. We can already see J. Smith starting to play a little slower (not by much) because of his age. Boldin balled out last year, but he is an old-fellow and father time will catch up with him. Our window is now and it is slipping. Sure, we can build through the draft, but that only gets you so far. We can't just replace those guys. Maybe we will hit on some players, but not all. We were so lucky with Aldon and Eric Reid IMO. I did not expect them to be beasts out of the gate. Hopefully drafting like that continues, but we can't count on it.

To sum this all up, yes we should be worried because that's what fans do. We should be worried that our team will fall off. We have reason to be, but not this year coming up. I am concerned where we will be in a short 5 years however.

I have a problem with the bolded, just to show the fans you care? As a GM their job is not to build interest and please the fans on paper in the offseason, it is to make the best team possible so that fans will be pleased during the season. You don't win games on paper. Redskins and cowboys make a lot of noise and during the Andy reid era they made noise too durng the off season, but ended up a paper tigers.

Some players may not want to come to your team unless you offer them more than they are worth. Do you think a steve smith wants to play behind boldin and crabtree? Look at what they signed for before saying you don't think it would have cost that not much. Also look at the team they went to-was there competition?

I agree with the original to a point. For example Vince.

Vince who???

I think he means Wilfork.

I think he means Wilfork.

Originally posted by Quest4six:
Before this starts, and a debate begins....

Remember that Baalke, Harbaugh, York, and the front office "team" are...

SMARTER THAN ALL OF YOU.

It's easy for us to sit here and nit-pick their choices in who they offer money to, whom they bring back etc...
Remember our team meets with these FA, we don't
They put them through physical tests and analyze the data, we don't
They built this team and know what it needs, we think we do
They deal with player/agent BS (like the sanders deal), we don't
Who here went to the combine?



Whatever Baalke does, whatever Harbaugh wants is the correct answer.
End my rant.


Great thread btw (no sarcasm)

I agree. There job is to 24/7/365 assess their team inside and out, forward and back. They are paid to win. The term "ego" has been thrown around the Baalke v. Harbaugh debate, but when its boiled down, they both want to win. I don't think anybody in our organization is looking at dollars over what the primary objective ism and that is being the best team in the NFL. To me Jed is much, much like Uncle Eddie. The team is his baby and he wants to do what his adored Uncle did. Baalke is determined and calculated and has other front office staff who has proven they can do their jobs well. And Jim may have his quirks, but he also wants to win, and win EVERYTHING and he's great at rallying people to a common cause.

The rest of us, sit and watch, read articles written by others and speculated by their opinions and formulate our own thoughts and assumptions in between our regular jobs and during our free time. Our focus is divided between what we must do and what we would love to do.

Epic thread and even better idea. Let's try to continue to be as objective as we can...so far, it looks like most of the rationale posters are in here for support of the FO-philosophy. That doesn't mean the moves this FO has made or their philosophy is correct, however. We also need the passionate fans in here who are counter to the FO-philosophy to paint the big picture. Together, we'll uncover "the plan." And one thing this FO has proven is that they ALWAYS have a plan. For instance, Whitner bolts to the Browns and we're signing Bethea 2 minutes later. Done. This is a very calculated and prepared FO whether right or wrong. Most of you very much helped me keep track of our FO moves over the past two years to date (i.e. 2013 Team Needs and 2014 Team Needs). When I initially started the thread, it was designed to keep pace with all the moves this FO was making, contracts, losses, gains, draft, etc. so I/we could help ID what our "needs" were. What were our strengths and weaknesses? What I found in doing this tedious task is "the plan." I am now going to lay out the FO philosophy over the past 3+ years (will cover the past 2 years) via our gains and loses and let you see for yourself. I won't cover the draft as that topic is really the expertise of many of you, not me. When I refer to our FO, it starts with Baalke but clearly is a collaboration of he and Harbaugh and all of the coaches (i.e. their wish list) and our salary cap team including Jed York.

Many moves are addition through subtraction and all are with a LT vision. This FO clearly seems to put a premium on coaching up and developing players. There is a strong feel for a top-notch locker room culture. Also, this FO has brought in many players who, d/t a stacked roster, just never really got the looks they needed to suceed with us; but the eye for the talent was there. This team over the past 2 years have had very few, if ANY starting positons open. Many of the FO moves were designed to create competition with starters to push them with the idea of replacement 2 or 3 years down the road. Many moves were designed for specific functions (i.e. key role players or to boost a unit such as ST coverage). We clearly don't overspend via FA. In fact, we've won on every single contract to date. The idea is that we build up our strengths through the draft, develop them and expect them to compete for starting roles in year 2 or 3. In fact, Baalke himself has gone on record noting that he has huge expectations for players in year 2. And if you look at the grocery-long list of players in 2014 coming into year-2, it's shocking esp. given how few starting positions are open. Baalke seems to do his most and best work after week 1 of FA targeting high-upside FA's for low prices with the idea that the coaches can get the most of out of them. Almost ALL of our FA pickups can be described with a "meh." Yet when you look at the list below, MANY have turned out huge for us and are now FT starters. In short, this FO is constantly looking for "value." Let me lay out the plan for you:

This FO is constantly looking for best value with long-term expectations of growth and development in all players from year 2 on and with the focus on being fiscally responsible.

IMHO, it appears to me, this is a very active FO all year long that continues to make FAR more gains than losses. Almost all of our losses have been the choice of the FA to go to a far superior team for more money. Yet, we've retained all the most critical internal FA's such as Boldin, Dawson, Brock, Wilhoite, etc.

2013

Real Losses:
CB Marcus Cooper – 7th rounder who had the H/W/S measureable who had few snaps during pre season. He goes on to KC and has a tremendous year; this is a good sign of an eye for talent.
QB B.J. Daniels – another Cooper-like story who is now is Seattle and many there consider him the perfect backup to Wilson.
TE Delanie Walker – this was a loss d/t his experience but he signed for a larger contract that we could afford and he wanted to be a #1 TE for the Titans. He got his snaps and yards there but no shot of making the playoffs there.
PR Ted Ginn – this was a big loss for 2 reasons: 1) his ST abilities and 2) teams had to respect his speed on the edges. We didn't find a replacement for either spot.

No Losses:
WR Randy Moss – his deep-"threat" ability opened up Crabtree and VD underneath. We missed him but he chose to retire.
WR Marlon Moore – Baalke brought in Moore to be our deep threat ala Ted Ginn. He was our pre season star but was never used during the season and eventually cut.
OLB Jermaine Cunningham – camp competition.
OLB Parys Haralson (Saints) for 7th rounder – is now a FA and did nothing for the Saints
OLB Cam Johnson (Colts) for 7th rounder – is he even still with the Colts
WR AJ Jenkins (traded for WR Jon Baldwin, Chiefs) – I still think he would have been an ideal slot WR but we don't use that position d/t the 2-TE and jumbo TE sets. He's way too weak to play out at the X & Z positions. This was a miss but Baldwin may help erase this pick if his H/W/S measurables pan out for us this off season.
QB Alex Smith – win-win for everyone
NT Issac Sopoaga – has been cut twice.
NT Ricky Jean Francois – average player.
FS Dashon Goldson – best move ever. Signed a 5-year $41.5M contract and the dude isn't worth squat.
K David Akers – great loss given who we picked up and signed LTLB Larry Grant – cut d/t PED's.

Real Gains:
CB Tramaine Brock - 1.3M – is now our #1 CB
WR Anquan Boldin - for second 6th rounder @ $6M; looking to restructure a LT deal. – easily, the best FA pickup of 2013 and just signed LT
NT Ian Williams - filling in for RJF @ $888,333 – from PS to starting NT
FS Craig Dahl - $1.783M – key ST player with some NFL experience at SS
LB/ST Dan Skuta - $1.35M – key #3 OLB and ST contributor (an area of weakness in 2012)
NT/DE Glenn Dorsey - $2.2M – almost as big as the Boldin signing; former 1st round draft pick who panned out with us.
PK Phil Dawson - $2.25M – broke records with us and just signed LT
WR Kassim Osgood – top ST gunner and backup WR
CB Eric Wright - one year contract; is now competing for the #2 CB position
2013 Draft Class – most draft picks of any team! This is always a win.

Other Gains:
OC Greg Roman - through 2015
QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson
QB John Skelton
OLB Jermaine Cunningham
QB Seneca Wallace
FB Owen Marecic
WR Chris Harper
WR Jon Baldwin
WR Austin Collie, Charly Martin, Lavelle Hawkins
TED: Travis Johnson
RDE Justin Smith - restructures; signed through 2015; huge salary cap relief move. Win-win! Thank you Justin/FO.
P Colton Schmidt - Championship!
WR Brandon Carswell - psych!
OC Assistant Eric Mangini - one year deal
C Goodwin - reduction $1.2 million in base salary
OT/OG Adam Snyder - 2-year, $2.45M
WR Ronald Curry - LOL...as an offensive assistant
MIKE LB Patrick Willis - restructures deal. The 49ers will move $1.687 million of Willis' scheduled 2013 base salary to a signing bonus, which allows them to spread the cap hit out over the final four years of Willis' deal with the team. Willis' base salary for the 2013 season will now be just $715,000 and it is fully guaranteed
TE Cameron Morrah - 1 year $630K
OT Anthony Davis - scheduled to make $1.3M this year (signed a 5 year extension worth $37M; 17M Guaranteed)
CB Nnamdi Asomugha - $1.35M (with a chance to make an additional $1.65M)
QB Colt McCoy - $1.5M per ESPN
S Darcel McBath - $630,000
WR Marlon Moore - $630,000
WILL OLB Parys Haralson - $1.3M restructure (with a chance to make $1.7M) = tradable
WR Joe Hasting - $405,000WR Ricardo Lockette - $480,000 - cut for Seneca Wallace
WR Mario Manningham - restructured his deal, lowering his base salary to $1.8M (they also eliminated his roster and workout bonuses)

2014

Real Losses:
None. While this sounds absurd, you have to realize the Niners offered Whitner and Brown both very fair (and LT) contracts and they chose to go to losing organizations for money and personal reasons. Whitner went home and Brown is hoping to play lights out for the Raiders for a bigger LT contract next year. Roger's dump-contract alone makes it a win for us. Every team has these kinds of losses every year and are magnified by parity with successful organizations. Just look at the contracts signed by both Whitner and Goldson. You can argue the experienced lost on the field with these 3 but we also have to remember that Brock beat out Brown and Cox s/h started over Rogers in the NFCCG. They both would have hurt our salary cap AND their play was diminishing now being outshined by younger, quicker, faster and more hungry (developed) players. Most view Whitner and Bethea as an equal on the field but a huge gain in salary cap. This is forward thinking by the FO and a shift to youth and a change in defensive coverage schemes and the proper players who now fit this philosophy.

No Losses:
Defensive Assistant/Outside Linebackers Coach, Peter Hansen
Coaches Tim Drevno & Paul Wulff
CB Carlos Rogers - Released. Per AB81Rules, his immediate release cap savings was $5.105M; he is now completely off the books now. D/t his contract alone, this is a gain. His experience in our defense will be missed.
SS Donte Whitner - Signed with the Browns for 4-year, $28M range, per @RapSheet. AB81Rules expected that we'd resign him to a 3-year deal, worth $15M, a $5M base average. DW chose to go to a very poor home team for big $. We offered him a fair deal and didn't take it. You can't count that as a loss. That was his choice.
CB Terell Brown - Signed a 1-year $3.5M contract with the Raiders.

Real Gains:
2014 Draft Picks – 13 - most draft picks of any team
CB Tramaine Brock - Signed to a 4-year, $16M extension (last 2013 move back in November)
WR Jon Baldwin - Base salary in 2014 is now $645k (down from $1.4M). $755 available in (unreachable) incentives.
S Craig Dahl - Base salary has been reduced from $1.35M down to $825,000. That would be a $525,000 savings, plus he may have had his $250,000 roster bonus, and $50,000 workout bonus eliminated, which would make the savings as much as $825,000.C Daniel Kilgore - The 49ers signed Kilgore, 26, to 3-year extension today that could keep the 2011 fifth-round pick with the team through 2017. The contract averages $1.8M per season with escalators of $900K available in the last two years, plus $900K in incentives in '17. DK's 2014 base is guaranteed and he also has a separate $600K roster bonus due April 1st, 2015 guaranteed for injury.
WILL Aldon Smith (FYI) - According to MM we have a 5th year option for him so he is signed for 2014 and 2015 yet. So we don't expect us to sign him any time soon although doing so we would get him cheaper than we would 2-3 years now (place tag on him). Technically we could have him for 2014, 2015 and tag him in 2016 and 2017 without having to sign him to a long term deal.
WR Anquan Boldin - Signed a two-year contract @ $12M with $9M guaranteed. Matt Maiocco‏@MaioccoCSN22 secsSource: #49ers Anquan Boldin's first year cap number is $2.364M. Deal is actually 5 years (for cap reasons) but voids after 2 years.
Secondary/Assistant Defensive Coach Ed Donatell - Agreed to a two-year deal. If Donatell signed just a one-year extension, he could have been a candidate for defensive coordinator jobs next year. But the 49ers coveted him and clearly made it worth his while to stick around for the next two years.
Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio - Talks underway for a Vic Fangio extension.
ILB Michael Wilhoite - Exclusive rights (will be back).
13 players signed to reserve/future contracts - Those players include: QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson, RB Jewel Hampton, WR Devon Wylie, WR DeMarco Sampson, WR David Reed, WR Chuck Jacobs, OG Al Netter, OT Carter Bykowski, DT Christian Tupou, NT Mike Purcell, CB Dax Swanson, SS D.J. Campbell & P Colton Schmidt
DE Demarcus Dobbs - #49ers expected to place lowest level tender ($1.4M) on RFA defensive end Demarcus Dobbs. First reported by @TomPelissero.
K Phil Dawson - AB81Rules projected a 1-year deal, worth $2.5M, with a $1M signing bonus, a $100,000 workout bonus, and a $1.4M base salary. Updating previous reports, San Francisco 49ers PK Phil Dawson received a two-year, $6.134 million deal with a $2 million signing bonus. He receives $3 million in the first year and can earn $25,000 in incentives each year.
SS Antoine Bethea - #49ers have reached agreement with Antoine Bethea on a four-year deal worth $21M per MB. Per AB81Rules: 2014- $3M ($1.25M base, $1.25M prorated bonus, $400K roster, and $100K workout)2015- $4.75M ($3M base, $1.25M prorated bonus, $400K roster, and $100K workout); 2016- $5.75M ($4M base, $1.25M prorated bonus, $400K roster, and $100K workout); 2017- $7M ($5.25M base, $1.25M prorated bonus, $400K roster, and $100K workout). 2014 base is fully guaranteed, 2015 is on signing, becomes fully on April 1 2015.
QB Blaine Gabbert - Adam Schefter, Jacksonville traded him to SF for a 6th round pick, per sources @ $2M a year; expected to rework final year of his original contract to, potentially, serve as backup.CB Eric Wright - Resigns to a 1-year contract. Details pending.
OT Jonathan Martin - The Dolphins will get a seventh-round pick in 2015 if Martin is on the opening day roster this season. The 49ers play so many six-man O-line sets (used to be Daniel Kilgore's job who is now poised to start at center), so they needed another quality sixth man." He also doubles as our swing-T and will compete with OT Luke Marquardt.
CB Chris Cook - @mattbarrows: Cornerback Chris Cook is signing a one year $900K deal with the ‪#‎49ers, per source

Back to the original OP, it sounds like we are discussing 2 different approaches to the team:

1. Baalke approach - Maintain a sustainable model under the salary cap. To accomplish this, it means you will lose good players and have to replace them with rookies, or low to mid priced vets.
2. All-in approach - Keep all of your own vets and maybe get a high-priced free agent to put you over the hump. To afford this, you have to structure contracts to pay more of their money in future years. That means there will be a day of reckoning. You will have too much money tied up in too few players, and then have to take a knife to your team in order to fit it under the salary cap. This was what we had to do when we let Garcia and TO go because we couldn't afford to keep them. Then came the dark years where we had little money in the salary cap and poor/cheap players.

As discussed the risk of #1 is that you may never win a Super Bowl. #2 gives you a better chance for a Super Bowl win, but then comes to the sub 8 win seasons. I think others have already said it best, with the #1 approach, you get into the playoffs, and that gives you a chance. #2 can't guarantee a Super Bowl win (too much is random like injuries), and anything less makes the strategy unacceptable. Personally, I prefer Baalke's approach.

Originally posted by WildBill:

Originally posted by ApatheticIAm:
My whole thing is...

1.) In the salary-cap era, it is HARD to keep winning. There are a few exceptions like NE who, since 2001, has kept winning. That is unheard of. If you look at any other "winning" team, most kept that streak alive 3-4 years before they fell into disparity again. I believe in probabilities and statistics.

2.) It's hard to ignore that our Niners have been to 3-straight NFC championships and a SB. That never happens. Correct me if i'm wrong, but there are 2 other teams who have done that, the Eagles most recently and the Bills during the early 90's (again salary cap era). Do you believe in conspiracies? The NFL might have an attitude towards us. A "Not these guys again." You thought it was hard to get to that third one? It would be monumental if we got to a fourth. Again, probabilities.

3.) At one point you should sign a big-name FA. Obviously you want the player to be worth it and the price to be right. I don't think it would have been too much to bring in Decker, Steve Smith, or one of those corners that were on the market. It shows the fans that you care and brings a little bit of excitement going forward into next season. That can go a long way. When the Eagles brought in TO the first year, that signing single-handedly got them over the NFCCG hump and into the SB (yes I know they didn't win it but that's not my point). It's a mental and psychological game.

4.) Everyone is a year older. Willis, Bowman, J. Smith, V. Davis, F Gore, Boldin etc are all a year older. We cannot expect them to play at top-level forever. Especially for guys like Boldin and J. Smith. We can already see J. Smith starting to play a little slower (not by much) because of his age. Boldin balled out last year, but he is an old-fellow and father time will catch up with him. Our window is now and it is slipping. Sure, we can build through the draft, but that only gets you so far. We can't just replace those guys. Maybe we will hit on some players, but not all. We were so lucky with Aldon and Eric Reid IMO. I did not expect them to be beasts out of the gate. Hopefully drafting like that continues, but we can't count on it.

To sum this all up, yes we should be worried because that's what fans do. We should be worried that our team will fall off. We have reason to be, but not this year coming up. I am concerned where we will be in a short 5 years however.

I have a problem with the bolded, just to show the fans you care? As a GM their job is not to build interest and please the fans on paper in the offseason, it is to make the best team possible so that fans will be pleased during the season. You don't win games on paper. Redskins and cowboys make a lot of noise and during the Andy reid era they made noise too durng the off season, but ended up a paper tigers.

Some players may not want to come to your team unless you offer them more than they are worth. Do you think a steve smith wants to play behind boldin and crabtree? Look at what they signed for before saying you don't think it would have cost that not much. Also look at the team they went to-was there competition?

The ultimate goal is to win SB's. So, our FO has NOT built the best possible team. They have tried everything thus far except bring in a high-profile FA. It wouldn't hurt at this point. 3 NFC Championships and a SB with nothing to show for it. Sure they can all be counted as moral victories, but who likes those?

Originally posted by fryet:
Back to the original OP, it sounds like we are discussing 2 different approaches to the team:

1. Baalke approach - Maintain a sustainable model under the salary cap. To accomplish this, it means you will lose good players and have to replace them with rookies, or low to mid priced vets.
2. All-in approach - Keep all of your own vets and maybe get a high-priced free agent to put you over the hump. To afford this, you have to structure contracts to pay more of their money in future years. That means there will be a day of reckoning. You will have too much money tied up in too few players, and then have to take a knife to your team in order to fit it under the salary cap. This was what we had to do when we let Garcia and TO go because we couldn't afford to keep them. Then came the dark years where we had little money in the salary cap and poor/cheap players.

As discussed the risk of #1 is that you may never win a Super Bowl. #2 gives you a better chance for a Super Bowl win, but then comes to the sub 8 win seasons. I think others have already said it best, with the #1 approach, you get into the playoffs, and that gives you a chance. #2 can't guarantee a Super Bowl win (too much is random like injuries), and anything less makes the strategy unacceptable. Personally, I prefer Baalke's approach.

I've posted this a few times because I believe it to be true. I don't think Baalke in particular has an issue with signing veteran free agents in general. In 2011, he went out and got Whitner, Rogers and Goodwin because there were gaping holes on that roster than needed to be filled. Though there are legitimate question marks at corner, and some concern about depth at WR (though less so), thankfully there are no gaping roster holes to fill this year.

Couple that with guys like Kap, Iupati, Aldon, Crabby, Culliver and even Miller/Hunter who are in line for extensions, and it seems obvious to me that Baalke wants to sort out these guys first before offering an outsider big money.

I think this is an appropriate article for this discussion.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2014/03/subpar-secondary-dont-judge-yet-49ers-fans.html

the gist of the story....

Don't judge our offseason until games are played and have faith in our coaches and front office because as the past 3 seasons have shown, the best players will play and they will excel.