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What kind of offense do we run?

Originally posted by Niners816:
Here is Harbaugh's Head coaching passing profile:

2004 SD 60.2% Comp 25Td 6Int
2005 SD 70.1% Comp 38Td 8Int
2006 SD 66.3% Comp 34Td 5Int
2007 STAN 55.5% Comp 12Td 12Int
2008 STAN 57.9% Comp 11Td 15Int
2009 STAN 56.3% Comp 14Td 6Int
2010 STAN 70.7% Comp 32Td 8Int
2011 SF 61.4% Comp 17Td 5Int
2012 SF 66.3% Comp 23Td 8Int
2013 SF 58.5% Comp 21Td 8Int

Outside of a couple of undermanned Stanford teams, Harbaugh's team usually do a great job of limiting turnovers. I guess you could argue that limiting attempts naturally leads to this. However, having a 2/1 TD/Int or in some cases a 3+/1 TD/Int is no small feat. I remember it was mentioned earlier in this thread how his qb's usually have a bump in comp % from first FULL year to second. These numbers illustrate just that, Luck went for 56-70, Smith went from 61-70 (before the switch). Lets just hope Kaep has a similar result. If he can start hitting at a 63-64% clip, I have little doubt this passing attack can start to approach that 225-240 ypg.

Thanks for this info!

So that's an average of 62.3% completion rate with 22 TD's and 8 INT's.

So, that's right in line with CK's projections for next year as well:
Kaepernick will have a completion percentage of 56.7 & and pass for an average of 217 yards a game (3,487 for the year) and throw for 20 TD's and 8 INT's and have a QB rating of 91.3.

We may see a slight improvement in completion percentage (from 56.7% closer to the average @ 62.3%) with Boldin and Crabtree healthy to start the year. And perhaps, HaRoMan/Geep will coach up CK to utilize the check-downs a bit more. Another big factor in this will be success of running on first downs so we won't constantly be in 2nd & 3rd and longs. That should help with the completion percentage as well.

But the bottom line is, the Stanford/Bo Schemblacher offense of mixed fruits is consistent in their philosophy...ground-game focus, TOP-controlled, low TO's, conservative esp. in the RZ and the passing game is merely used as an extention of this conservative approach (schemed AR 1 or 2's and primary read-centric in PS plays/formations).

So fans that have different expectations of an explosive offense needs to look at history under Harbaugh and these stats when both Crabtree and Boldin were healthy (8 games & 16-game projection) and also the adverse affect it had on VD.
[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 4, 2014 at 8:24 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Thanks for this info!

So that's an average of 62.3% completion rate with 22 TD's and 8 INT's.

So, that's right in line with CK's projections for next year as well:
Kaepernick will have a completion percentage of 56.7 & and pass for an average of 217 yards a game (3,487 for the year) and throw for 20 TD's and 8 INT's and have a QB rating of 91.3.

We may see a slight improvement in completion percentage (from 56.7% closer to the average @ 62.3%) with Boldin and Crabtree healthy to start the year. And perhaps, HaRoMan/Geep will coach up CK to utilize the check-downs a bit more. Another big factor in this will be success of running on first downs so we won't constantly be in 2nd & 3rd and longs. That should help with the completion percentage as well.

But the bottom line is, the Stanford/Bo Schemblacher offense of mixed fruits is consistent in their philosophy...ground-game focus, TOP-controlled, low TO's, conservative esp. in the RZ and the passing game is merely used as an extention of this conservative approach (schemed AR 1 or 2's and primary read-centric in PS plays/formations).

So fans that have different expectations of an explosive offense needs to look at history under Harbaugh and these stats when both Crabtree and Boldin were healthy (8 games & 16-game projection) and also the adverse affect it had on VD.

Regarding the bolded, there is little hope of change with HaRo, but, I am holding out hope that we mix in more passing plays on first down. Not only to gain yardage, but to make our play selection on 2nd and 3rd downs more diverse. If we pass on first down and get 5-7 yards, then on second down we could either run, use play action to go deep, etc. if the second down play doesn't get us a first down then we can either run or pass on 3rd to move the chains.

It would also make our offense less predictable in regards to how defenses play against us now. Currently our first down play selection is either run between the tackles or a stretch run to the outside; defenses know this and it usually ends up with us in constant catch-up mode. Then we always have to pass on 2nd and 3rd downs. Mixing in more passes on 1st down would help us stay ahead of the chains and change how our offense is defended.
Originally posted by K1ngCoopa24:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Thanks for this info!

So that's an average of 62.3% completion rate with 22 TD's and 8 INT's.

So, that's right in line with CK's projections for next year as well:
Kaepernick will have a completion percentage of 56.7 & and pass for an average of 217 yards a game (3,487 for the year) and throw for 20 TD's and 8 INT's and have a QB rating of 91.3.

We may see a slight improvement in completion percentage (from 56.7% closer to the average @ 62.3%) with Boldin and Crabtree healthy to start the year. And perhaps, HaRoMan/Geep will coach up CK to utilize the check-downs a bit more. Another big factor in this will be success of running on first downs so we won't constantly be in 2nd & 3rd and longs. That should help with the completion percentage as well.

But the bottom line is, the Stanford/Bo Schemblacher offense of mixed fruits is consistent in their philosophy...ground-game focus, TOP-controlled, low TO's, conservative esp. in the RZ and the passing game is merely used as an extention of this conservative approach (schemed AR 1 or 2's and primary read-centric in PS plays/formations).

So fans that have different expectations of an explosive offense needs to look at history under Harbaugh and these stats when both Crabtree and Boldin were healthy (8 games & 16-game projection) and also the adverse affect it had on VD.

Regarding the bolded, there is little hope of change with HaRo, but, I am holding out hope that we mix in more passing plays on first down. Not only to gain yardage, but to make our play selection on 2nd and 3rd downs more diverse. If we pass on first down and get 5-7 yards, then on second down we could either run, use play action to go deep, etc. if the second down play doesn't get us a first down then we can either run or pass on 3rd to move the chains.

It would also make our offense less predictable in regards to how defenses play against us now. Currently our first down play selection is either run between the tackles or a stretch run to the outside; defenses know this and it usually ends up with us in constant catch-up mode. Then we always have to pass on 2nd and 3rd downs. Mixing in more passes on 1st down would help us stay ahead of the chains and change how our offense is defended.

Agreed, nothing will change unless it comes from upstairs (Baalke). Even then, I don't anticipate it changing in philosophy but in better personnel. For instance, it will still be Boldin, Crabtree, some VD and Gore. But perhaps Lattimore makes a huge jump and demonstrates an ability to run inside, off tackle, can catch and becomes a great pass blocker? Perhaps, they throw a few more bones to McDonald this year? Miller even mor? Maybe they consider running less two-TE sets and jumbo packages and a few more 3+ WR sets to get Patton or a 2nd round rookie a bone or two. Even THEN, I don't anticipate much deviation from the mean (still expect heavy runs on 1st downs) here and an upgrade at personnel over an aformentioned skill position starter is the only hope we really have of taking that next step IMHO; doing just enough to win #6.

But I'm posting this in hopes fans tailor their expectations properly. I had similar projections last year of this offense and they held true/consistent.
[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 4, 2014 at 8:56 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by K1ngCoopa24:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Thanks for this info!

So that's an average of 62.3% completion rate with 22 TD's and 8 INT's.

So, that's right in line with CK's projections for next year as well:
Kaepernick will have a completion percentage of 56.7 & and pass for an average of 217 yards a game (3,487 for the year) and throw for 20 TD's and 8 INT's and have a QB rating of 91.3.

We may see a slight improvement in completion percentage (from 56.7% closer to the average @ 62.3%) with Boldin and Crabtree healthy to start the year. And perhaps, HaRoMan/Geep will coach up CK to utilize the check-downs a bit more. Another big factor in this will be success of running on first downs so we won't constantly be in 2nd & 3rd and longs. That should help with the completion percentage as well.

But the bottom line is, the Stanford/Bo Schemblacher offense of mixed fruits is consistent in their philosophy...ground-game focus, TOP-controlled, low TO's, conservative esp. in the RZ and the passing game is merely used as an extention of this conservative approach (schemed AR 1 or 2's and primary read-centric in PS plays/formations).

So fans that have different expectations of an explosive offense needs to look at history under Harbaugh and these stats when both Crabtree and Boldin were healthy (8 games & 16-game projection) and also the adverse affect it had on VD.

Regarding the bolded, there is little hope of change with HaRo, but, I am holding out hope that we mix in more passing plays on first down. Not only to gain yardage, but to make our play selection on 2nd and 3rd downs more diverse. If we pass on first down and get 5-7 yards, then on second down we could either run, use play action to go deep, etc. if the second down play doesn't get us a first down then we can either run or pass on 3rd to move the chains.

It would also make our offense less predictable in regards to how defenses play against us now. Currently our first down play selection is either run between the tackles or a stretch run to the outside; defenses know this and it usually ends up with us in constant catch-up mode. Then we always have to pass on 2nd and 3rd downs. Mixing in more passes on 1st down would help us stay ahead of the chains and change how our offense is defended.

Agreed, nothing will change unless it comes from upstairs (Baalke). Even then, I don't anticipate it changing in philosophy but in better personnel. For instance, it will still be Boldin, Crabtree, some VD and Gore. But perhaps Lattimore makes a huge jump and demonstrates an ability to run inside, off tackle, can catch and becomes a great pass blocker? Perhaps, they throw a few more bones to McDonald this year? Miller even mor? Maybe they consider running less two-TE sets and jumbo packages and a few more 3+ WR sets to get Patton or a 2nd round rookie a bone or two. Even THEN, I don't anticipate much deviation from the mean (still expect heavy runs on 1st downs) here and an upgrade at personnel over an aformentioned skill position starter is the only hope we really have of taking that next step IMHO; doing just enough to win #6.

But I'm posting this in hopes fans tailor their expectations properly. I had similar projections last year of this offense and they held true/consistent.

I agree, there won't be much change in our first down plays, but even a slight diversion from a constant 95% (I'm making up that figure btw)run rate on 1st down to say 75/25 run /pass ratio would do wonders. Being so predictable is what hurts this team rather than help it. Harbaugh being who he is being so damn stubborn will never change, but if we even out what plays we use on first down the results would be very noticeable IMO.
Originally posted by K1ngCoopa24:
I agree, there won't be much change in our first down plays, but even a slight diversion from a constant 95% (I'm making up that figure btw)run rate on 1st down to say 75/25 run /pass ratio would do wonders. Being so predictable is what hurts this team rather than help it. Harbaugh being who he is being so damn stubborn will never change, but if we even out what plays we use on first down the results would be very noticeable IMO.

If they came out passing on first downs, it would catch every DC with their pants down. Or even if you changed personnel. If you put James or Hunter and now, maybe Lattimore back there...now what? Pass or run...and if run, run inside or off tackle? Stay in to block? Swing pass? Just one change in personnel can put a defense on it's heels rather than predictably playing down hill easily timed.
Since the overall philosophy isn't gonna change, I would like to see us use spider-y-banana even more than we already do and especially more on first down to start drives. From the gruden qb camp we know how much he loves it and how much of a staple it is in the Stanford/harbaugh offense. As was pointed out by gruden, the great thing about the spider or play action off of power is the fullback is open like 90% of the time. For those not familiar the nuts and bolts of the play is the TE runs a corner, the FB sells run then releases to the flat, and a WR from the opposite side of the formation runs a drag. What it amounts to, is both a vertical and horizontal stretch with the off side WR route creating the triangle we were talking about earlier.

What I would like to see is us coming out in an ace two TE set then shift to either an I or strong I formation and run this play. Getting either Davis or McDonald in the FB position could lead to easy receptions based on the design of this play. Something tells me tho if vd is in the backfield, the defense will be on alert and this could open up McDonald on the corner. The other big wildcard on this play is kaps legs, if somehow the defense does cover everything kaps should have some nice lanes to run. IMO this should be our current play that we wear out much like how joe and steve wore "slants", "drive" or "spot".
[ Edited by Niners816 on Mar 4, 2014 at 9:53 AM ]
Originally posted by Niners816:
Since the overall philosophy isn't gonna change, I would like to see us use spider-y-banana even more than we already do and especially more on first down to start drives. From the gruden qb camp we know how much he loves it and how much of a staple it is in the Stanford/harbaugh offense. As was pointed out by gruden, the great thing about the spider or play action off of power is the fullback is open like 90% of the time. For those not familiar the nuts and bolts of the play is the TE runs a corner, the FB sells run then releases to the flat, and a WR from the opposite side of the formation runs a drag. What it amounts to, is both a vertical and horizontal stretch with the off side WR route creating the triangle we were talking about earlier.

What I would like to see is us coming out in an ace two TE set then shift to either an I or strong I formation and run this play. Getting either Davis or McDonald in the FB position could lead to easy receptions based on the design of this play. Something tells me tho if vd is in the backfield, the defense will be on alert and this could open up McDonald on the corner. The other big wildcard on this play is kaps legs, if somehow the defense does cover everything kaps should have some nice lanes to run. IMO this should be our current play that we wear out much like how joe and steve wore "slants", "drive" or "spot".

Would you and thl408 be willing to take over the offense next year? LOL

On a serious note, how epic would it be to be an OC on the 49ers with ALL this depth and talent. Wow...endless uses here.
[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 4, 2014 at 10:01 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Would you and thl408 be willing to take over the offense next year? LOL

On a serious note, how epic would it be to be an OC on the 49ers with ALL this depth and talent. Wow...endless uses here.

Honestly being the OC for the niners would be my dream job. Also, I have the utmost respect for both harbaugh and roman and really appreciate the job they are doing. It's just that if they would only tweak the offense a bit and use more of an old school WCO mentality it would be huge.

Attacking weaknesses and making teams prove they can stop what you do well could make this offense so damn explosive. If that were to happen we could get a couple of titles out is this roster.
[ Edited by Niners816 on Mar 4, 2014 at 10:38 AM ]
I don't know why, but all the talent on this team should make this offense unstoppable. It seems that no team in the league does less with more talent than our beloved 49ers. :(
Originally posted by K1ngCoopa24:
I don't know why, but all the talent on this team should make this offense unstoppable. It seems that no team in the league does less with more talent than our beloved 49ers. :(

I don't see elite speed on the outside like I do with almost every other team in the league. I don't see a 4.4 running back or an extremely tall receiver. I don't see a good pass blocking line. I think they do pretty well with what they have, but I have to wonder why people think the offense has more talent than other teams.
Originally posted by crake49:
Originally posted by K1ngCoopa24:
I don't know why, but all the talent on this team should make this offense unstoppable. It seems that no team in the league does less with more talent than our beloved 49ers. :(

I don't see elite speed on the outside like I do with almost every other team in the league. I don't see a 4.4 running back or an extremely tall receiver. I don't see a good pass blocking line. I think they do pretty well with what they have, but I have to wonder why people think the offense has more talent than other teams.

Moss, Moore, Ginn and Lockette? Never used them. James himself ran a 4.37 but I actually think Hunter is faster/quicker. VD? Fastest TE in the game. Patton is fast right? Baldwin is huge (Osgood is very tall with good hands). Crabtree and Boldin are the same player basically...box-outs with tremendous hands, 3rd down capabilities and good to great RAC. Miller is the best FB in the game and certainly the most versatile. Never use McDonald. But we have plenty of weapons and depth and we're about to get even more. One "speed" guy in the game is going to change the entire offensive philosophy of Harbaugh after 10 proven years? Doubt it...

As to your point, I do agree that pass blocking sucks at time esp. coupled with predictable play calling and an unpredictable mobile QB and only an inside run game with Gore.

At this stage though, if we had Jacoby Jones, does anyone truly feel we'd utilize him more than just a deeper decoy routes a game to get guys like Crabtree, VD and Boldin open more underneath?

We have PLENTY of weapons that are all experienced and can play in just about any offense and succeed. It's up to the coaches now to utilize them...or not, IMHO.
I hear you, but I'm sure the Niners can also figure out that having one TE on the inside with elite speed cannot force Seattle or any other defense out of these 1 deep safety formations. One reason the Niners have so much trouble with Seattle is that Kam Chancellor is sitting way up there like an extra linebacker choking off short and intermediate routes and the corners are way up on the line locking up on the wideouts. When the only player on the field who they have to worry about getting behind them is VD, Earl Thomas just hangs back and runs with him. I think Patton is very quick but I'm not sure he's in the elite NFL speed category. I guess that I wouldn't assume they will always do whatever they've always been doing. In the NFL, things change - offenses react to defensive trends and vice versa. I also think there is a process going on of developing the QB and the more he develops, the more they'll give him. And, most people who watch the draft and the team agree that they're paying some very close attention to some of the speedier receivers in the draft. I think they know they need to add speed.
Originally posted by crake49:
I hear you, but I'm sure the Niners can also figure out that having one TE on the inside with elite speed cannot force Seattle or any other defense out of these 1 deep safety formations. One reason the Niners have so much trouble with Seattle is that Kam Chancellor is sitting way up there like an extra linebacker choking off short and intermediate routes and the corners are way up on the line locking up on the wideouts. When the only player on the field who they have to worry about getting behind them is VD, Earl Thomas just hangs back and runs with him. I think Patton is very quick but I'm not sure he's in the elite NFL speed category. I guess that I wouldn't assume they will always do whatever they've always been doing. In the NFL, things change - offenses react to defensive trends and vice versa. I also think there is a process going on of developing the QB and the more he develops, the more they'll give him. And, most people who watch the draft and the team agree that they're paying some very close attention to some of the speedier receivers in the draft. I think they know they need to add speed.

I agree overall...truly. Just not so sure that even if we had him, we'd use him properly. That's all.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Moss, Moore, Ginn and Lockette? Never used them. James himself ran a 4.37 but I actually think Hunter is faster/quicker. VD? Fastest TE in the game. Patton is fast right? Baldwin is huge (Osgood is very tall with good hands). Crabtree and Boldin are the same player basically...box-outs with tremendous hands, 3rd down capabilities and good to great RAC. Miller is the best FB in the game and certainly the most versatile. Never use McDonald. But we have plenty of weapons and depth and we're about to get even more. One "speed" guy in the game is going to change the entire offensive philosophy of Harbaugh after 10 proven years? Doubt it...

As to your point, I do agree that pass blocking sucks at time esp. coupled with predictable play calling and an unpredictable mobile QB and only an inside run game with Gore.

At this stage though, if we had Jacoby Jones, does anyone truly feel we'd utilize him more than just a deeper decoy routes a game to get guys like Crabtree, VD and Boldin open more underneath?

We have PLENTY of weapons that are all experienced and can play in just about any offense and succeed. It's up to the coaches now to utilize them...or not, IMHO.

Nice post. I agree 100%.

This offense won't truly take off until the coaching staff concedes that they have to open things up and spread the field more. Not just using decoys, but actually attacking all levels of the defense. Short, intermediate, long. Make every eligible pass catcher on the field a potential threat. Spread the ball between 7 different pass catchers a game, not just 3.

Baalke new this, which is why he went for speed in the 2012 draft with Jenkins and James. It was the missing element to our offense. Stretch the defense with speed so the entire offense has more room to breath. Neither player was really given a legitimate shot. James played well when given the opportunity. Jenkins flamed out, but reports out of KC suggest he may be in line to start next to Bowe. Very frustrating if we gave up on him too early.

Been watching a lot of NFL Rewind during the offseason, and my goodness, McDonald is running around with no one around him in sight. It's laughable he only had a handful of passes thrown his way all year. The drops were magnified due to the small sample size, but that kid can really move for a guy his size. He would have made his fair share of plays if given the chance.
Our coaching staff and speed: