Also want to put this info here so we can revisit at the end of next season:
Let's take a look at our real offense...whatever the heck it is @ full strength
Kaepernick in his first 11 regular-season games in 2013 (without Crabtree): 156 of 275 (56.7), 2,037 yards (185.2 per game), 14 TD, 7 INT (86.6 rating)
Kaepernick in 8 games with Crabtree and Anquan Boldin (including playoffs): 132 of 233 (56.7), 1,736 yards (217.0 per game), 10 TD, 4 INT (91.3 rating)
Read more at http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/03/03/offensive-weapons-could-provide-kaepernick-with-franchise-qb-season/
So what should we expect for this offense (and CK) next year?
2014 Projection Totals (Passing Game) - Team Leaders:
- will have a completion percentage of 56.7 & and pass for an average of 217 yards a game (3,487 for the year) and throw for 20 TD's and 8 INT's and have a QB rating of 91.3.
- will average 6.1 catches a game for an average of 85 yards a game (1,364 for the year)
- will average 4.25 catches a game for an average of 61 yards a game (976 for the year)
- will average 2.4 catches a game for an average of 35 yards a game (562 for the year)
- will be the 3rd leading receiver on the team (targets).
FYI: Davis' numbers really fell off once Crabtree came back. These were his last 8 games in yards (82, 21, 79, 0, 45, 37, 1, 16). Also, Boldin & Crabtree's numbers may reverse given CK's chemistry with Crabtree. And last year's CK projections IIRC were spot on as well. So tailor your expectations appropriately (see below).
Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/177391-west-coast-offense/page7/#LfvT4arbQ05XHLWZ.99
Let's look at production from a Harbaugh offense over the past 10 years:
Qb's averaged a 62.3% completion rate
with 22 TD's
and 8 INT's
So, that's right in line with CK's projections for next year as well:
- will have a completion percentage of 56.7
& and pass for an average of 217 yards a game
(3,487 for the year
) and throw for 20 TD's
and 8 INT's
and have a QB rating of 91.3
We may see a slight improvement in completion percentage (from 56.7% closer to the average @ 62.3%) with Boldin and Crabtree healthy to start the year. And perhaps, HaRoMan/Geep will coach up CK to utilize the check-downs a bit more (could make a huge difference). Another big factor in this will be success of running on first downs so we won't constantly be in 2nd & 3rd and longs. That should help with the completion percentage as well.
But the bottom line is, the Stanford/Bo Schemblacher offense is consistent in their philosophy...ground-game focus, TOP-controlled, low TO's, conservative esp. in the RZ and the passing game is merely used as an extention of this conservative approach (schemed AR 1 or 2's and primary read-centric in PS plays/formations). So fans that have different expectations of an explosive offense needs to look at history under Harbaugh and these stats when both Crabtree and Boldin were healthy (8 games & 16-game projection). It may also have an adverse effect on VD's numbers as well as evidenced above.
[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 7, 2014 at 7:39 AM ]