What is Kaeps worth....?

Baalke will likely play hardball on this one as it will determine so much of who the team will be able to keep thereafter. The example of Baltimore after the Flacco contract should make it apparent that the team will lose a lot of talent after the Kaepernick resigning. After the Super Bowl win and the Flacco contract the Ravens jettisoned most of their elderly statesmen...either by retirement, trades or cuts. The niners team leaders are not as old as the Raven leaders were so it may be more difficult for Baalke. Willis is not going to retire and drop a huge cap number, for instance. If you look at a comparison:

Reed (35)--Whitner (28)
Lewis (38)--Willis (29)
Suggs (31)--A Smith (24) Smith is younger but Suggs is 31...not ancient, which is why Balt kept him.
Rice (27)--Gore (30) is Gore gone? Probably, unless he reworks his contract...again.

Rice is the one key Raven skill player younger than the 49er counterpart. So if the niners shed some older players to help the cap who will they be? Whitner, Goodwin and Rogers are the most logical candidates but none of them are ancient and none of them are team leaders in the sense of long term locker room stability. Sadly, Both Goodwin and Whitner have key roles in setting up the OLine and the DBs. There may be a short term void if one or both leave.

Baalke and Harbaugh have to take these things into account and balance the team...hope Kaepernick and his agent are reasonable!

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Baalke will likely play hardball on this one as it will determine so much of who the team will be able to keep thereafter. The example of Baltimore after the Flacco contract should make it apparent that the team will lose a lot of talent after the Kaepernick resigning. After the Super Bowl win and the Flacco contract the Ravens jettisoned most of their elderly statesmen...either by retirement, trades or cuts. The niners team leaders are not as old as the Raven leaders were so it may be more difficult for Baalke. Willis is not going to retire and drop a huge cap number, for instance. If you look at a comparison:

Reed (35)--Whitner (28)
Lewis (38)--Willis (29)
Suggs (31)--A Smith (24) Smith is younger but Suggs is 31...not ancient, which is why Balt kept him.
Rice (27)--Gore (30) is Gore gone? Probably, unless he reworks his contract...again.

Rice is the one key Raven skill player younger than the 49er counterpart. So if the niners shed some older players to help the cap who will they be? Whitner, Goodwin and Rogers are the most logical candidates but none of them are ancient and none of them are team leaders in the sense of long term locker room stability. Sadly, Both Goodwin and Whitner have key roles in setting up the OLine and the DBs. There may be a short term void if one or both leave.

Baalke and Harbaugh have to take these things into account and balance the team...hope Kaepernick and his agent are reasonable!

I think Trent Baalke and Paraag Marathe will do a good job at dealing with cap implications of the contracts.

They seem to have done an excellent job up to now, although I will admit that my understanding of the cap is limited--very limited.

Originally posted by Wubbie:
The last true dual-threat QB, in my opinion, who was equally effective at both was Steve Young. And Kaepernick has the potential to be better because, as gifted as Steve Young was, Kaepernick is a superior athlete.

I don't disagree however the rest of the NFL are superior athletes to the NFL Steve was playing in. They have all gotten bigger, stronger, and faster. Across the board.

Unless Kaepernick was just flat-out BS-ing when he talked about his upcoming contract negotiations, I don't think the Niners will even have to play hardball with him. We'll see.

Long as we get him signed before the season starts, I truly feel like if we do things right in the offseason, we're primed to be the last team standing at the end.
I know Kap is a humble guy but who knows what hes gonna demand when we win. Yes he's good, but until he develops that killer instinct to score at will and not rely on the defense to cover him. Lack of effiency on offense will hold us back. We need TDs not FGs. If our D stays the same or improves and then we start putting up 7s and not 3s, we are by far the best.
4yr contract with a 5th yr option and backload it. Cap Space will open up when Gore, Boldin and J. Smith retire. I

Originally posted by Ronnie49Lott:
Got this from the "Gonzo calls Matty Ice Exellent But Not Elite" thread at atlantsfalcons.com--

Matt Ryan's biggest problem and maybe even Peyton Manning has a similar problem, is that they have fear when the going gets tough. When the spot light is on and its time to be at your toughest, they aren't. It's like Matt Ryan is more tough and confident for a game vs the Detriot Lions than he is for a game vs the 49ers in the playoffs. He needs to find that confidence that I hate to say that Russell Wilson and Kapernick have in themselves. Best of luck Matt Ryan.

http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/3997806-gonzo-calls-matty-ice-excellent-but-not-elite/page__st__20

So basically Gonzalez is telling us that he'll comeback for either the Seahawks or us

Originally posted by crake49:
Unless Kaepernick was just flat-out BS-ing when he talked about his upcoming contract negotiations, I don't think the Niners will even have to play hardball with him. We'll see.

Kap doesn't like distractions. He wants to hit the field as quickly as possible. Remember him as a rookie? I know the CBA kind of limited things but he told his agent to hurry up so he could hit the field. Kap wants his dough but he ain't looking to be the highest paid guy. I expect us to come to terms quickly enough so that there is not much of any distraction to Kap and his laser focus on football and getting better. He knows he has to beat the SEA defense twice a year and I have faith that he will do everything he reasonably do to help this team win

Originally posted by Wubbie:
When Peyton was injured, the Colts tanked without him. The 49ers could win with a lot of games with any QB.

How do you know this?

The Colts tanked because they went from 10+ year veteran "Hall-of-Fame" quarterback to "not starter quality" quarterback.

Alex Smith (7 year veteran at the time) was at least starter quality, wouldn't you say? And Kap is certainly not a 10 year vet. So the drop off (if you believe there was one) was no where near as dramatic.

Originally posted by BrianGO:
How do you know this?

The Colts tanked because they went from 10+ year veteran "Hall-of-Fame" quarterback to "not starter quality" quarterback.

Alex Smith (7 year veteran at the time) was at least starter quality, wouldn't you say? And Kap is certainly not a 10 year vet. So the drop off (if you believe there was one) was no where near as dramatic.

1. Because in the Bill Walsh system we run the QB is not as important as he is in other systems.
2. The 49ers run the ball as much as any other team and throw the ball near the bottom of the league when it comes to attempts.
3. They also have a top 1-3 defense (depending on who you ask).

An average to slightly above average QB that can play within the system would result in a lot of games won on this team. Did you not watch this season? There was a period of about 7 games where Kaep was playing well BELOW average and the team was on a roll.

I mean we beat Houston THIRTY FOUR TO THREE and he only completed 6 passes for 113 yards and had a 40% completion percentage (and he only carried the ball once for 14 yards that game so that wasn't it either). That is how good this TEAM is.

If you look at it the 49ers QB only completed 20 passes in 2 of 16 games but they won 12 of them. He completed 15 passes or less in 10 games this season and we won 7 of them.

That is how I know...

A s**tty QB is not going to get it done but this team can win a lot of games because of its running game and D with just average QB play. As evidenced by the majority of this season.

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by BrianGO:
How do you know this?

The Colts tanked because they went from 10+ year veteran "Hall-of-Fame" quarterback to "not starter quality" quarterback.

Alex Smith (7 year veteran at the time) was at least starter quality, wouldn't you say? And Kap is certainly not a 10 year vet. So the drop off (if you believe there was one) was no where near as dramatic.

1. Because in the Bill Walsh system we run the QB is not as important as he is in other systems.
2. The 49ers run the ball as much as any other team and throw the ball near the bottom of the league when it comes to attempts.
3. They also have a top 1-3 defense (depending on who you ask).

An average to slightly above average QB that can play within the system would result in a lot of games won on this team. Did you not watch this season? There was a period of about 7 games where Kaep was playing well BELOW average and the team was on a roll.

I mean we beat Houston THIRTY FOUR TO THREE and he only completed 6 passes for 113 yards and had a 40% completion percentage (and he only carried the ball once for 14 yards that game so that wasn't it either). That is how good this TEAM is.

If you look at it the 49ers QB only completed 20 passes in 2 of 16 games but they won 12 of them. He completed 15 passes or less in 10 games this season and we won 7 of them.

That is how I know...

A s**tty QB is not going to get it done but this team can win a lot of games because of its running game and D with just average QB play. As evidenced by the majority of this season.

lol we dont run a Bill Walsh system. We mix in elements of a Walsh system, but we run a ton of shotgun/pistol. Bill Walsh hated the shotgun.

The NFL is a passing league now. You pass to score, you run to bleed the clock. You ever think about the reasons why we run alot? Harbaugh likes the running game, but he inherited a team with Alex Smith at QB, who wasnt going to be a Drew Brees type of guy. Then you get Kap in there, who was very raw. Kap doesnt attempt more than 30 passes each week because hes not ready yet. After his 412 yard game in week 1 against GB, Harbaugh tried letting him loose, and he couldnt handle it, so he went back to the conservative offense.

Once Kap is ready to be that 30-45 attempt guy, I think you see that. Especially with a healthy group of receivers. The NFL is a passing league, and the QB is almost the exclusive factor between being a winner or loser.

Still cant figure out why you relate the Bill Walsh system to not needing a great QB...Walsh's offense required impeccable timing...

Originally posted by Niners99:
lol we dont run a Bill Walsh system. We mix in elements of a Walsh system, but we run a ton of shotgun/pistol. Bill Walsh hated the shotgun.

The NFL is a passing league now. You pass to score, you run to bleed the clock. You ever think about the reasons why we run alot? Harbaugh likes the running game, but he inherited a team with Alex Smith at QB, who wasnt going to be a Drew Brees type of guy. Then you get Kap in there, who was very raw. Kap doesnt attempt more than 30 passes each week because hes not ready yet. After his 412 yard game in week 1 against GB, Harbaugh tried letting him loose, and he couldnt handle it, so he went back to the conservative offense.

Once Kap is ready to be that 30-45 attempt guy, I think you see that. Especially with a healthy group of receivers. The NFL is a passing league, and the QB is almost the exclusive factor between being a winner or loser.

Still cant figure out why you relate the Bill Walsh system to not needing a great QB...Walsh's offense required impeccable timing...

Harbaugh has run a modernized Bill Walsh system, for the most part, his three years here. I do admit there has been a ton more shotgun the last season and a half, but I think that is because of the guy under center more than anything. And we don't run A LOT of pistol formation, only a few a game at most, sometimes none. Not that formations are indicative of a system anyways.

You realize that almost every QB that the Bill Walsh (and Seifert/Mooch) 49ers brought in and actually played in games was successful, right? It wasn't just Montana and Young. Grbac and Bono often stepped in for long periods and played almost like Montana/Young were still there. Hell, in Ty Detmer's only start with us he looked like one of the greats that ever played! That's not to mention Carter and Anderson in Cinci before the 9ers hired Walsh.

This is my point. When you have the best overall TEAM in the NFL you can still win a lot of games with average QB play. Everything you are trying to contradict/disprove in your post already proved that. Especially in a balanced offensive system that doesn't ask the QB to win games for you, but rather play efficiently within the system. AS EVIDENCED BY MORE THAN HALF OF THE GAMES WE WON THIS YEAR.

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by Niners99:
lol we dont run a Bill Walsh system. We mix in elements of a Walsh system, but we run a ton of shotgun/pistol. Bill Walsh hated the shotgun.

The NFL is a passing league now. You pass to score, you run to bleed the clock. You ever think about the reasons why we run alot? Harbaugh likes the running game, but he inherited a team with Alex Smith at QB, who wasnt going to be a Drew Brees type of guy. Then you get Kap in there, who was very raw. Kap doesnt attempt more than 30 passes each week because hes not ready yet. After his 412 yard game in week 1 against GB, Harbaugh tried letting him loose, and he couldnt handle it, so he went back to the conservative offense.

Once Kap is ready to be that 30-45 attempt guy, I think you see that. Especially with a healthy group of receivers. The NFL is a passing league, and the QB is almost the exclusive factor between being a winner or loser.

Still cant figure out why you relate the Bill Walsh system to not needing a great QB...Walsh's offense required impeccable timing...

Harbaugh has run a modernized Bill Walsh system, for the most part, his three years here. I do admit there has been a ton more shotgun the last season and a half, but I think that is because of the guy under center more than anything. And we don't run A LOT of pistol formation, only a few a game at most, sometimes none. Not that formations are indicative of a system anyways.

You realize that almost every QB that the Bill Walsh (and Seifert/Mooch) 49ers brought in and actually played in games was successful, right? It wasn't just Montana and Young. Grbac and Bono often stepped in for long periods and played almost like Montana/Young were still there. Hell, in Ty Detmer's only start with us he looked like one of the greats that ever played! That's not to mention Carter and Anderson in Cinci before the 9ers hired Walsh.

This is my point. When you have the best overall TEAM in the NFL you can still win a lot of games with average QB play. Everything you are trying to contradict/disprove in your post already proved that. Especially in a balanced offensive system that doesn't ask the QB to win games for you, but rather play efficiently within the system. AS EVIDENCED BY MORE THAN HALF OF THE GAMES WE WON THIS YEAR.

We can have the best overall team in the NFL, but if we dont have a good QB to lead the way, were not winning a SB. Im not sure if youre trying to say we should let Kap leave instead of pay up? Look at all the bad teams in the NFL. What do they all have in common? They dont have a good QB. Look at all the good teams in the NFL. They all have good QB's.

The 12 playoff teams this year all had a top 15 QB. Rodgers, Brees, Kap, Wilson, Foles, Newton, Manning, Brady, Rivers, Luck, Dalton, Smith. It wasnt an accident.

The modern NFL requires a top flight QB to win titles. Look at the last 15 Super Bowls. Warner, Brady, Brady, Brady, Big Ben, Peyton, Eli, Big Ben, Brees, Rodgers, Eli, Wilson. So 12 of the 15 years the winner had a top flight QB. Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Joe Flacco were the exceptions. Dilfer and Johnson had historically good defenses, and Flacco went on the tear of his career at the perfect time.

Unless we plan on having the best D of the era coming up here, were going to need a good QB, and Kap is well on his way to being that player. Its going to be expensive, but thats the cost of a franchise talent. If you get into the business of being cheap and trying to replace special players with drafted replacements, youre going to come out the loser.

Kap has the potential to be historically special. His size, speed, arm strength, mind, work ethic, and ability to handle big game pressure is an incredibly rare combination. The 49ers need to hold on tight to him, and they will.

Ask any front office in the NFL about how valuable a franchise QB is. Suggesting that its a good idea to try and win titles by spreading the cash around and just putting a competent QB behind center is lunacy to me. Youre banking on historically great defense at that point, which isnt realistic.

Originally posted by Gavintech:

1. Because in the Bill Walsh system we run the QB is not as important as he is in other systems.
2. The 49ers run the ball as much as any other team and throw the ball near the bottom of the league when it comes to attempts.
3. They also have a top 1-3 defense (depending on who you ask).

An average to slightly above average QB that can play within the system would result in a lot of games won on this team. Did you not watch this season? There was a period of about 7 games where Kaep was playing well BELOW average and the team was on a roll.

I mean we beat Houston THIRTY FOUR TO THREE and he only completed 6 passes for 113 yards and had a 40% completion percentage (and he only carried the ball once for 14 yards that game so that wasn't it either). That is how good this TEAM is.

If you look at it the 49ers QB only completed 20 passes in 2 of 16 games but they won 12 of them. He completed 15 passes or less in 10 games this season and we won 7 of them.

That is how I know...

A s**tty QB is not going to get it done but this team can win a lot of games because of its running game and D with just average QB play. As evidenced by the majority of this season.

Those stats sound great, but they are of course terribly misleading.

Five out of those six completions gave us first downs. That is not average quarterback play.
Four out of those five were on 3rd down.

We had 15 passing attempts, and ran the ball 36 times. That's well over a 2 / 1 ratio of running the ball to passing, which is unheard of in the NFL.
We had a 21 - 0 lead at the half, and had even less reason the pass the ball.
In the 2nd and 4th quarter there were a total of four pass attempts combined.

We took deep shots down the field, which opened up the running game, and caused the completion percentage to take a hit. We had 177 rushing yards as a result of this strategy.

Average-yards-per-attempt is a stat that tells a much better story of what a quarterback is doing. This, combined with 3rd down %. Both of these stats have been strongly improved since we have had Kaepernick in charge. Completion % means almost nothing if it doesn't improve your 3rd down %. What is the freaking point of completing a pass if it gives you a lower 3rd down %?


If a quarterback throws a touchdown 1/3 of the time he passes the ball, but is incomplete 2/3 of the time, and the team wins 34 - 3, he'll end up about 4 - 12, and by your logic, you'll say the team won the game, when in reality the quarterback had a huge part in the win.

Originally posted by Gavintech:
Harbaugh has run a modernized Bill Walsh system, for the most part, his three years here. I do admit there has been a ton more shotgun the last season and a half, but I think that is because of the guy under center more than anything. And we don't run A LOT of pistol formation, only a few a game at most, sometimes none. Not that formations are indicative of a system anyways.

You realize that almost every QB that the Bill Walsh (and Seifert/Mooch) 49ers brought in and actually played in games was successful, right? It wasn't just Montana and Young. Grbac and Bono often stepped in for long periods and played almost like Montana/Young were still there. Hell, in Ty Detmer's only start with us he looked like one of the greats that ever played! That's not to mention Carter and Anderson in Cinci before the 9ers hired Walsh.

This is my point. When you have the best overall TEAM in the NFL you can still win a lot of games with average QB play. Everything you are trying to contradict/disprove in your post already proved that. Especially in a balanced offensive system that doesn't ask the QB to win games for you, but rather play efficiently within the system. AS EVIDENCED BY MORE THAN HALF OF THE GAMES WE WON THIS YEAR.

Those quarterbacks went on to become starters with other teams. Bill Walsh had an eye for talent. That was his greatest asset. Especially quarterback talent. Detmer was not a bad player, when he had time he could kill you like Jeff Garcia. We gave him time in the pocket, and a good system yes, but you're acting like these are scrubs that just stepped in.

Harbaugh also has an eye for talent, especially at the quarterback position. That is evidenced by everything he has done involving quarterbacks his whole career. Kap is here because Harbaugh recognized a good player. It's why Luck played at Stanford, and Josh Johnson played at SD; because Harbaugh can FIND these people.

Sure, he can ALSO develop them, but that is overrated compared to FINDING them.

Don't see the "WCO" being used by Harbaugh...yet alone "modernized." He runs a run first, power game which is about as far away from the WCO as you can get. I'm not sure why Harbaugh or others insist that his offense is a WCO off shoot, other than the obvious need to honor BW at Stanford and now the niners.

WCO--pass to set up the run.
JH--run to set up the pass.

WCO--short, high percentage passes.
JH--vertical passing to stretch the D to allow runs.

WCO--smaller, quick linemen to wear out the D.
JH--large linemen for run blocking.

WCO--FBs who catch many passes.
JH--RB who can block in the backfield.

WCO--WR picks with late releases.
JH--decoys with one designated receiver.

WCO--QBs survey the field from side to side with timing routes.
JH--QBs looking for one or two options.

Some of these may be a matter of QB development...or lack thereof...so far.