Originally posted by Adusoron:
jonnydel, thl408, et al: I don't know if Dilfer's comments about Kaepernick being a 1-read QB have been discussed at length here, and I don't know if you guys hold Grant Cohn's articles (Santa Rosa Press Democrat) with as much skepticism as I do, but I just saw something interesting in Cohn's blog. He says:
"Trent Dilfer, who played for Shula when Shula was the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator from 1996 to 1999 and currently is an analyst for ESPN, recently told a Bay Area radio station there are no progressions in the 49ers' passing game. "They're calling a play for a defense, for a player and, if that play is called wrong, that second, third, fourth option isn't going to get the ball very often. They don't have the type of offensive structure and Colin isn't the type of quarterback that there are five eligible receivers and anyone can get the ball."
This style of passing offense allows coaches to do most of the thinking, and it makes quarterback, the most difficult position in sports, much easier to play: Just fire the ball to the primary receiver if he's open and, if he's covered, run for your life.
When the 49ers' passing game is clicking and Kaepernick is hitting wide-open receiver after wide-open receiver, that means Greg Roman is guessing correctly. He's calling plays designed to get one player open against the type of coverage he expects the opposing team to use on that play. When Roman guesses incorrectly, you don't see Kaepernick reset his feet and find his second and third targets. There are no second and third targets. Those guys are decoys clearing space. When Roman guesses incorrectly, Kaepernick has to flip the ball to a running back in the flat, or scramble, or get sacked."
I just have much difficulty buying that Roman is guessing defenses and structuring Colin with 1 read depending upon the defense Roman guessed. That seems impossible and contradictory to posts you guys have put up showing Colin reading the field of play.
What are Dilfer and Cohn possibly alluding to and do you guys see any merit in their "analysis" of CK7, Roman, and the offensive structure?
http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2014/01/inside-the-49ers/it-comes-to-pass-for-49ers-panthers/
There are many things I see wrong with that article in terms of the logic used to make his argument. The argument that Harbaugh runs a primitive scheme compared to what Cam is running in CAR. Just want to address one thing before I answer your question, knowing that you only referenced the article for the snippet that you bolded.
Cohn doesn't understand what complex and simple means in terms of a passing offense. When I read,
"The 49ers have had success playing it simple. Kaepernick makes fewer mistakes than Newton. Kaepernick threw just eight interceptions, and Newton threw 13. But complex has its advantages, too."
I laughed a bit. Throwing interceptions has nothing to do with how simple/complex an offense is. Maybe if it was the same QB throwing passes in two different systems can that logic be used. The Panthers run the
Perkins-Erhardt system. Its effectiveness is in its simplicity to call plays. When the verbiage to call plays is simple, the routes being described lose detailed description. The other reason to use it is because it is simpler than other systems out there for the players to learn. If you're curious, there's more about this system
here. The power of that system is unlocked by an offense that likes a fast pace. The Patriots use it, but with a bunch of option routes mixed in to add complexity. If there is one thing that Harbaugh's passing attack lacks, it's
sight adjustments.
Cohn's and Dilfer's analysis suggests that when the 49ers call a play, Kap knows who his target for the pass is, before making any analysis of his own about the defense he is about to see (before the offense gets to the line of scrimmage). I'll respond to each sentence you bolded from the article. What you pasted from the article, will be bolded below:
"Trent Dilfer, who played for Shula when Shula was the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator from 1996 to 1999 and currently is an analyst for ESPN, recently told a Bay Area radio station there are no progressions in the 49ers' passing game.
- This is a broad statement, saying there are no progressions. There are many plays where Kap looks around the field. His head scans horizontally from side to side suggesting he is going through reads.
"They're calling a play for a defense, for a player and, if that play is called wrong, that second, third, fourth option isn't going to get the ball very often.
- This was many times true during weeks 4, 5, and 6 (when teams went primarily man coverage. It is easy to scheme for a specific WR when the defense plays mostly man coverage. This was after SEA and IND, two teams who went predominantly press man coverage, provided the blueprint on how to defend the 49ers. VD and Boldin were schemed open with a lot of clearing routes. Miller and Vance lined up wide, taking defenders away from the part of the field that Boldin and VD would work their routes.
They don't have the type of offensive structure and Colin isn't the type of quarterback that there are five eligible receivers and anyone can get the ball."
- It's not the offensive structure, if by "structure" Cohn means Harbaugh's passing offense. I agree that Kap is not the type of QB that when there are 5 WRs, anyone can get the ball. This comes from not seeing the field. I completely excuse him for this due to his inexperience. No one comes out of an offense like the one ran in Reno and is able to see the field at the NFL level. Even elite QBs don't see the field right out of the gate. There is a reason why the distribution of catches is so top heavy with Kap at QB. This top heavy catch distribution was not the case when AS was quarterback under Harbaugh's system. I did a breakdown somewhere in the "is Roman good?" thread. I can't find it now, but AS had a very gradual distribution from top to bottom in terms of WRs total catches. For Kap in 2012, it was Crabs, then a huge dropoff to the WR with the second most catches. In 2013, it's VD/Boldin, then a huge dropoff.
This style of passing offense allows coaches to do most of the thinking, and it makes quarterback, the most difficult position in sports, much easier to play: Just fire the ball to the primary receiver if he's open and, if he's covered, run for your life.
- In weeks 4, 5, and 6, I would say this has merit. In my observation, this is not the case anymore on the majority of pass plays. The WZ has coined this type of play an Anointed Receiver play. This is a play where the target of the pass is known when the huddle breaks, before the offense gets to the line of scrimmage.
When the 49ers' passing game is clicking and Kaepernick is hitting wide-open receiver after wide-open receiver, that means Greg Roman is guessing correctly. He's calling plays designed to get one player open against the type of coverage he expects the opposing team to use on that play.
- This is severely discrediting Kap and the WRs while pumping up Roman, which I guess is the point of this article. We know Kap has multiple plays and a lot of freedom at the line of scrimmage. I suppose Crabs/VD/Boldin can't execute good route running when they are "wide open". And Kap can't get a pre-snap read on the defensive alignment, then make the optimal playcall.
When Roman guesses incorrectly, you don't see Kaepernick reset his feet and find his second and third targets. There are no second and third targets. Those guys are decoys clearing space. When Roman guesses incorrectly, Kaepernick has to flip the ball to a running back in the flat, or scramble, or get sacked."
- This is a broad statement. There are indeed times where Kap makes one read then bolts. He is learning pocket presence. In many cases, the proof is in the film. jonnydel has shown how Kap scans the field, side to side. We have all seen it if we watch for it during the live telecast. It's in front of our face, on TV.
I can see these statements by Dilfer true in the weeks I mentioned where teams were playing mostly man coverage. In my observation, this is not the case anymore. Kap is operating a pro style passing attack with AR plays here and there. However, even on AR plays, how do we know it isn't Kap making a pre-snap read and going with a certain AR play designed to beat the coverage he is seeing at the line of scrimmage?
[ Edited by thl408 on Jan 10, 2014 at 12:21 AM ]