Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Originally posted by thl408:
Found it (from the Greg Roman thread). These stats were compiled on Dec 7 of this season.
Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it would be correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution looks in this offense. My claim is that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):
^^That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed.
Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games of the 2013 season with Kap as QB):
So this is comparing when Smith had a full offseason to prepare as the starter versus Kap as a full season to prepare as a starter. It's not the offense that causes this whacked out pass distribution, it's the QB. The reason I took the 2012 season and not the 2011 season with AS as QB is that the 2011 offseason was shortened due to the owner's lockout. Jim was new in town and I was not sure if he had time to fully implement his offense. By having a full offseason coming into 2012, and with AS as the clear cut starter, this made me use 2012 AS games.
To me, this says one of two things:
1) When AS is the QB, Jim likes to call AR plays that distributes the ball around, whereas when Kap is QB Jim wants to call AR plays that create a top heavy distribution. (
2) AS sees the field better and uses all his route runners, whereas Kap has tunnel vision. (quite feasible imo for a young QB)
I think this comparison is a bit flawed though, for a few reasons.
1st, Alex had been in the NFL for a lot longer than Kap. Granted the time in Harbaugh's system is the same, but experience reading NFL defenses benefits him greatly.
2nd, Alex had all of his receivers healthy, Kap only had Boldin and VD.
3rd, Alex rarely threw balls into tight coverage and therefore had to move on to other progressions. Kap trusts his rifle arm to get the ball into tight windows.
I think your first point supports what I am saying. That Alex sees the field better and therefore will distribute the ball. Can't dispute your second point. Your third point is valid. The main point I was trying to make with that post is that Harbaugh's offense has progressions and is not using an AR scheme as its foundation. Alex distributed the ball around by being able to see the field.
For those that say Harbaugh's passing attack is AR based, they should admit that when Smith was the QB, Harbaugh called AR plays that distributed the ball around to many WRs. Then when Kap became QB, Harbaugh only calls AR plays for VD and Boldin. I do not find this reasonable, which is why I say Harbaugh's offense is not AR based.
[ Edited by thl408 on Jan 10, 2014 at 2:05 PM ]