Analysis from the Green Bay Packers coaches film

Originally posted by NinerGM:
thl408

I know we strongly disagree on observations here, but I think Dilfer is spot on - and as someone who played the game and someone who's been in a 49er huddle/uniform, Dilfer has always been loyal in complimenting this team. The claims Dilfer makes here were also alluded to by Steve Young. My problem is that you can't just completely discount the assessment former pros, former 49ers at that, are making about this passing offense. And IMHO, the most damning evidence is the results you're seeing after Roman "interviews" - the teams that need offensive gurus the most aren't even mentioning him as their 'preferred' interview candidate. I would say the AR is effective that much more because the talent being used in the system is superior.

But you could say that about the "Run-and Shoot" - given enough talent, almost any offense would be successful at some point.

I don't think this discredits Kap and pumps up Roman at all - I think this what the 49ers believe is the right coaching, understand why/how this is a college offensive system. The games where Kap has "improvised" to create a go-ahead score or drive, have been when Kap makes plays through improvisation or, as Gore said, "we just changed the play because of what we saw" even though something else was "called."

Here's the problem with Romans/Harbaughs passing offense, and every stat from this year supports this claim:

When this offense loses just ONE piece, it become almost predictable/non-functional and severely limits Romans ability to "trick" a defense or as Jon Gruden said "manufacture passing".

I appreciate the effort you've put into this discussion. It's so greatly appreciated. Again when I'm hearing so many people say the same thing - and not just the standard ESPN parrots, it starts to make you wonder if there's some fire going on with all the smoke.

Good take NinersGM. I am not sure what Dilfer being a former 49er has to do with him being loyal in complimenting the team. He works for ESPN now and is paid to give his take on the issues they tell him to give analysis on. He blasted Kap so I see no loyalty there. I am also unclear why you mentioned Roman not being considered for a head coaching job, and what that has to do with this AR debate. This is Harbaugh's passing attack. If Fangio handles all the defense, and Roman is this run game guru, then I hope Jim isn't just giving rah rah speeches.

I would like to know at what point in the season Young made those comments because I stated above that during weeks 4, 5, and 6, there were a good chunk of AR plays being called. This stems from Kap struggling with reading coverages and the 49ers needing to win games while not being able to afford bonehead young QB mistakes. I am not completely discounting Dilfer's and Young's comments as I have repeatedly admitted that the 49ers do run AR plays. I don't know how many more times you are going to ask for me to state it. All teams do this. It's a sound strategy because it's simple and effective when done correctly.

Regarding the underlined, I am referring to the article when I stated the discrediting of the QB. The reason I say this (article) discredits Kap and pumps up Roman is because it plainly states that Kap is told to throw to the single, predetermined target. Any QB with an arm can do that. It removes the QB's need to read coverage away from him. To me, that discredits any passing game success from the QB and puts the credit on the playcaller. Isn't it more impressive to see a QB read a coverage then make a good decision? What the article is saying is that this is not happening.

You know my take on this passing offense. There is another question to answer and that is "Is Kap running the same passing attack as when AS was here under Harbaugh?" This goes back to the pass distribution within the WR corp. I do think that Kap was playing with training wheels (AR) in an effort to minimize mistakes.

What I do not believe to be the case is that with AS here, there were AR plays called to create a nice catch distribution, whereas with Kap as QB, Jim was okay with a top heavy catch distribution. That sounds a bit ridiculous to me. With that said, it seems to me that AS simply sees the field better and can utilize all his route runners, while Kap has tunnel vision. This also says, to me, that Harbaugh's passing attack is not AR based as its foundation since AS threw the ball around to all his WRs.

Found it (from the Greg Roman thread). These stats were compiled on Dec 7 of this season.

Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it would be correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution looks in this offense. My claim is that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1


^^That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed.

Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games of the 2013 season with Kap as QB):
Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....


So this is comparing when Smith had a full offseason to prepare as the starter versus Kap as a full season to prepare as a starter. It's not the offense that causes this whacked out pass distribution, it's the QB. The reason I took the 2012 season and not the 2011 season with AS as QB is that the 2011 offseason was shortened due to the owner's lockout. Jim was new in town and I was not sure if he had time to fully implement his offense. By having a full offseason coming into 2012, and with AS as the clear cut starter, this made me use 2012 AS games.

To me, this says one of two things:
1) When AS is the QB, Jim likes to call AR plays that distributes the ball around, whereas when Kap is QB Jim wants to call AR plays that create a top heavy distribution. (<-- a bit ridiculous)

2) AS sees the field better and uses all his route runners, whereas Kap has tunnel vision. (quite feasible imo for a young QB)

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by thl408:
After a Kap 24 yard scramble where GB was playing man coverage, there was a defensive hold on an incomplete pass to Crabs. Then this pass.

49ers: All verticals concept
GB: Cover2 man

The 49ers make this playcall thinking GB would be in zone coverage at the linebacker level since they just got burned with a 24 yard Kap run moments ago. All verticals will attack the deep safties with numbers, in this case 5 WRs. However, this is man coverage underneath, which makes it harder for the playcall to succeed because the man defenders will follow their WRs instead of playing an underdeath zone.

This isn't a long bomb type of route concept. It is designed to be a quick throw, as Kap displays here. If the defender on the WR is in a trail position, then throw it over the top. If the defender is even with, or over the top of the WR, make it a back shoulder throw.



Below: The ball was just snapped. The blue lines show which GB defender is manned up on which 49er. There's a CB with a '?' on his head is because I am unsure of his assignment. It seems like it should be man coverage with the rest of this team mates, but it won't appear that way a split second later. #42 is the safety, Burnett. Notice his spacing between the hash marks and the numbers on the field. Red lines were drawn to help illustrate his distance from the hash marks to the numbers on the field.


Below: Kap hs decided to make the throw in this pic and his arm is about to start his windup. Notice how every CB has their hips turned to run with their WR. Everyone except the CB that had the '?' on his head. He is looking in the backfield. My only guess is that he is the spy to prevent another Kap scramble. He is shown doing the "he's not my guy anymore" tap to Boldin as Boldin runs past him. #42 the safety has now slid closer to the numbers on the field, and farther from VD.

Applying the vertical concept, Kap sees that AJ Hawk is not trailing VD. This means the throw will be a back shoulder throw.


Below: Kap in the middle of his windup. All the CBs are running with their WR, except for the CB on Boldin. This forces the safety to respect Boldin and shade closer to Boldin. My guess is that the CB letting Boldin run by is playing his assignment as the spy on Kap.


Below: The ball is in the air (red arrow) and #42 has taken a couple false steps (even closer to the numbers on the field) making his ability to play the ball that much more difficult. He turns his hips to drive towards the ball.


Below: Every false step #42 took mattered as he barely missed batting the pass down.


The play: All verticals works better against zone underneath coverage because it leaves the underneath defenders covering grass while all the WRs attack the deep safties. Although the playcall isn't perfect against the coverage (man under), because Kap has gashed GB for several big runs GB was not going to play man coverage all around and had one of their CBs assigned to a spy role. That spy forced the saftey (#42) to help play man coverage on Boldin and that is all the space Kap needs to fire a perfect back shoulder throw to VD.


The all verticals (four verticals) concept is relevant to the CAR game as this was what the 49ers were trying to do late in the 4th quarter. We may see it again this Sunday.

I think GB was in a "tampa 2" "soft" zone coverage on this play. I took a few looks at this play when I was breaking down the film and I think it's that the inside DB on the top breaks off his zone as he see's the 2 receivers are his side go vertical. The biggest difference in a tampa 2 are the safeties and MLB. In a regular cover 2 the safeties will give inside help to the outside corners, so the safeties should be just inside the 2nd receivers, think of it like a quarters defense with the sidelines being the other 2 defenders. In a Tampa 2, the safeties drop wider, closer to even with the inside receiver and out by the numbers with the MLB taking a deep middle type of drop to keep the deep middle throws out of the equation. It's hard to know for sure though as zone coverage eventually becomes man coverage. But, from what I see out of the "nickel" corner and the safeties, I think it's a Tampa 2, which means Kap took the only throw available on the field.

After closely looking at the second defender from the top of the screen and how he does not run with his WR all the way down the field, I stand corrected. That defender (second from the top of screen) is exhibiting the same assignment as the defender on Boldin. I agree this is Tampa2. What mislead me was the CBs on the edges turning and running with their WRs, which I thought made this man coverage. This makes the playcall a good playcall as it properly attacked the 2 deep safties and the MLB playing the deep middle (3 deep zone defenders versus 5 vertical routes).

So, Thl , without saying it you are making the case for kap not reading Ds well(tunnel vision), not finding targets well, unless they are designated(ARs). And that is why we are playing this ridiculous one designated receiver with 3 (THREE) all pro receivers, Crabs, Vernon and Boldin. Am I correct, or did I misunderstand the bottom line?

To restate, roman has been calling AR plays because his Qb can't find receivers quickly enough? No question we are playing a different brand of O lately, with some definite progressions, and other times just AR. So the hope is colin learns to find open receivers better as he goes along, correct? If so, I would have to say it does appear he is doing some of his progressions well. If he can't , then he takes off. Is this a fair summary of your interpretation?

Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to figure out what I am seeing and you are saying.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
So, Thl , without saying it you are making the case for kap not reading Ds well(tunnel vision), not finding targets well, unless they are designated(ARs). And that is why we are playing this ridiculous one designated receiver with 3 (THREE) all pro receivers, Crabs, Vernon and Boldin. Am I correct, or did I misunderstand the bottom line?

To restate, roman has been calling AR plays because his Qb can't find receivers quickly enough? No question we are playing a different brand of O lately, with some definite progressions, and other times just AR. So the hope is colin learns to find open receivers better as he goes along, correct? If so, I would have to say it does appear he is doing some of his progressions well. If he can't , then he takes off. Is this a fair summary of your interpretation?

Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to figure out what I am seeing and you are saying.

paso, there's nothing to be argumentative about. We are just talking football.

I feel you got my point correctly. What I bolded above I agree with. What NinerGM and I are discussing is the frequency in which the AR plays are called. I have been very critical of Kap throughout this season and I place most of the fault for the passing offense's struggles on his inexperience, instead of the playcalling. I try to be objective which is why I have never said anything to the effect of "he sucks, get a new QB". He is young and all young QBs struggle with reading NFL defenses. It's the growing pains of a young NFL QB. I respect the game and understand how difficult it is to grasp as a QB.

This is the reason why Harbaugh has held Kap's hand (given him AR plays) as the 49ers walk the fine line between developing a QB, and winning games. Harbaugh needs to win games to fulfill this team's expectations as a SB contender. He cannot afford to have bad QB mistakes at inopportune times. Enter the AR plays. Harbaugh is also trying to develop Kap into being a dynamic QB that reads defenses and makes the correct decision based on the coverage he sees. A QB that doesn't just throw it to where he is told to throw it. Enter the pro style passing attack. Kap is coming along just fine imo.

Originally posted by thl408:
paso, there's nothing to be argumentative about. We are just talking football.

I feel you got my point correctly. What I bolded above I agree with. What NinerGM and I are discussing is the frequency in which the AR plays are called. I have been very critical of Kap throughout this season and I place most of the fault for the passing offense's struggles on his inexperience, instead of the playcalling. I try to be objective which is why I have never said anything to the effect of "he sucks, get a new QB". He is young and all young QBs struggle with reading NFL defenses. It's the growing pains of a young NFL QB. I respect the game and understand how difficult it is to grasp as a QB.

This is the reason why Harbaugh has held Kap's hand (given him AR plays) as the 49ers walk the fine line between developing a QB, and winning games. Harbaugh needs to win games to fulfill this team's expectations as a SB contender. He cannot afford to have bad QB mistakes at inopportune times. Enter the AR plays. Harbaugh is also trying to develop Kap into being a dynamic QB that reads defenses and makes the correct decision based on the coverage he sees. A QB that doesn't just throw it to where he is told to throw it. Enter the pro style passing attack. Kap is coming along just fine imo.

thl408, i generally agree with your response as quoted. Can you give your specific opinion on the definite marks of progress you've seen in CK7 making reads and playing from the pocket? Jonnydel made a great point earlier that we can't (unfairly) compare Colin to Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers because he doesn't have anywhere near their experience. But, how about comparing him to the other young QBs? Or how about the 2012 version of himself? Or the early 2013 season of himself?

It seems to me that Colin does make reads more frequently than he did earlier in the season. Jonnydel's film screen grabs show it. It's not consistent, and his footwork in the pocket is not consistent, but it seems inaccurate for his critics to characterize him as a 1-read QB or a captain of a "remedial offense." Another major factor is trust. Young QBs need targets they trust. Losing trusted targets retards young QB development.

What do you think?

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
So, Thl , without saying it you are making the case for kap not reading Ds well(tunnel vision), not finding targets well, unless they are designated(ARs). And that is why we are playing this ridiculous one designated receiver with 3 (THREE) all pro receivers, Crabs, Vernon and Boldin. Am I correct, or did I misunderstand the bottom line?

To restate, roman has been calling AR plays because his Qb can't find receivers quickly enough? No question we are playing a different brand of O lately, with some definite progressions, and other times just AR. So the hope is colin learns to find open receivers better as he goes along, correct? If so, I would have to say it does appear he is doing some of his progressions well. If he can't , then he takes off. Is this a fair summary of your interpretation?

Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to figure out what I am seeing and you are saying.

paso, there's nothing to be argumentative about. We are just talking football.

I feel you got my point correctly. What I bolded above I agree with. What NinerGM and I are discussing is the frequency in which the AR plays are called. I have been very critical of Kap throughout this season and I place most of the fault for the passing offense's struggles on his inexperience, instead of the playcalling. I try to be objective which is why I have never said anything to the effect of "he sucks, get a new QB". He is young and all young QBs struggle with reading NFL defenses. It's the growing pains of a young NFL QB. I respect the game and understand how difficult it is to grasp as a QB.

This is the reason why Harbaugh has held Kap's hand (given him AR plays) as the 49ers walk the fine line between developing a QB, and winning games. Harbaugh needs to win games to fulfill this team's expectations as a SB contender. He cannot afford to have bad QB mistakes at inopportune times. Enter the AR plays. Harbaugh is also trying to develop Kap into being a dynamic QB that reads defenses and makes the correct decision based on the coverage he sees. A QB that doesn't just throw it to where he is told to throw it. Enter the pro style passing attack. Kap is coming along just fine imo.

I too absolutely agree with this contention. Given that we're seeing more and more PS passing plays with 3, 4 & even 5 WR sets since Crabtree came back and with the the distribution difference under Alex vs. CK, these are pretty good indications that HaRoMan are starting to turn the offense more and more over to CK and relinquish control, so to speak. As to the degree of how much we run AR vs. PS it may not be as significant at this juncture anymore and it's still hard to tell at times for a variety of reasons (i.e some AR's may be called out of a WCO formation). Let's enjoy the ride though and props to all the fans who did their homework and had an eye for what this offense is!

Originally posted by Adusoron:

Originally posted by thl408:
paso, there's nothing to be argumentative about. We are just talking football.

I feel you got my point correctly. What I bolded above I agree with. What NinerGM and I are discussing is the frequency in which the AR plays are called. I have been very critical of Kap throughout this season and I place most of the fault for the passing offense's struggles on his inexperience, instead of the playcalling. I try to be objective which is why I have never said anything to the effect of "he sucks, get a new QB". He is young and all young QBs struggle with reading NFL defenses. It's the growing pains of a young NFL QB. I respect the game and understand how difficult it is to grasp as a QB.

This is the reason why Harbaugh has held Kap's hand (given him AR plays) as the 49ers walk the fine line between developing a QB, and winning games. Harbaugh needs to win games to fulfill this team's expectations as a SB contender. He cannot afford to have bad QB mistakes at inopportune times. Enter the AR plays. Harbaugh is also trying to develop Kap into being a dynamic QB that reads defenses and makes the correct decision based on the coverage he sees. A QB that doesn't just throw it to where he is told to throw it. Enter the pro style passing attack. Kap is coming along just fine imo.

thl408, i generally agree with your response as quoted. Can you give your specific opinion on the definite marks of progress you've seen in CK7 making reads and playing from the pocket? Jonnydel made a great point earlier that we can't (unfairly) compare Colin to Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers because he doesn't have anywhere near their experience. But, how about comparing him to the other young QBs? Or how about the 2012 version of himself? Or the early 2013 season of himself?

It seems to me that Colin does make reads more frequently than he did earlier in the season. Jonnydel's film screen grabs show it. It's not consistent, and his footwork in the pocket is not consistent, but it seems inaccurate for his critics to characterize him as a 1-read QB or a captain of a "remedial offense." Another major factor is trust. Young QBs need targets they trust. Losing trusted targets retards young QB development.

What do you think?

Personally, I don't even feel it's right to compare him to other QBs his age. The reason he slipped in the draft was because of his mental readiness due to coming out of a college style offense at Reno. He was raw as can be and that caused GMs to shy away from him, selecting QBs like Dalton and Ponder before Kap. 2012 was an outlier to me as he took the league by storm. So I will just compare Kap from September 2013 to Kap of January 2014.

Jonnydel has shown some examples of his ability to work through progressions. I am dont' know what jonnydel thinks is the most improved aspect of Kap's game, but to me his most improved aspect is pocket presence. For us that have seen every 49er game this season, one of the things Kap struggled with mightily was his ability to sense pressure in the pocket. Below is a play I illustrated after the week 3 IND game, but now that I can make GIFs, I want to re-visit the play.

Game situation seen below: After the snap, Kap drops back and scans the field (first read is to the right side of the formation). The right side of the OL is serving pancakes and the left side has things under control.


Below: For no explicable reason, Kap decides it's time to bail out of the pocket. He rolls left. Vance is running the red arrow.


Below: Because Kap scrambles left, the pocket breaks down since Iupati can't be asked to know what Kap is doing (back turned to play).


1 yard scramble


This is just one play and one of the things with using film to support a point is that we can't just take one play and say "this is what always happens". But if you've seen every 49er game, try to remember back to weeks 1-5ish and how panicked Kap was in the pocket (well maybe not week 1). This could be a big reason why Dilfer says things like, "Kap is remedial once his first read is covered".

I was terrified when I saw tendencies like this early in the year. This is typical Michael Vick crap. I was not upset that Kap missed Vance open. I was upset that Kap never gave the play a chance by standing tall in the pocket, to see Vance get open. One of the biggest struggles for a scrambling QB is knowing when to scramble. Guys like Peyton and Brady don't have to worry about this as scrambling is not option #2, or #3, or #4. For guys like Kap, RW, RG3, Cam, they have to weigh passing options before resorting to scrambling. Kap has shown remarkable improvement in this area in my observation.

Other areas of improvement are being able to float a pass over the LB and in front of the CB and just overall consistency.

It is somewhat tough to take Dilfer serious when he critiques QBs. His claim to fame is being the worst QB to win a Super Bowl where there is no question that the defense carried the team. I think most of the time he makes fair points and unbiased critiques... but it is just hard to take the guy seriously when he was unable to do any of the stuff he demands of the QBs he critiques.

Originally posted by thl408:
Found it (from the Greg Roman thread). These stats were compiled on Dec 7 of this season.

Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it would be correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution looks in this offense. My claim is that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1


^^That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed.

Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games of the 2013 season with Kap as QB):
Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....


So this is comparing when Smith had a full offseason to prepare as the starter versus Kap as a full season to prepare as a starter. It's not the offense that causes this whacked out pass distribution, it's the QB. The reason I took the 2012 season and not the 2011 season with AS as QB is that the 2011 offseason was shortened due to the owner's lockout. Jim was new in town and I was not sure if he had time to fully implement his offense. By having a full offseason coming into 2012, and with AS as the clear cut starter, this made me use 2012 AS games.

To me, this says one of two things:
1) When AS is the QB, Jim likes to call AR plays that distributes the ball around, whereas when Kap is QB Jim wants to call AR plays that create a top heavy distribution. (<-- a bit ridiculous)

2) AS sees the field better and uses all his route runners, whereas Kap has tunnel vision. (quite feasible imo for a young QB)

I think this comparison is a bit flawed though, for a few reasons.

1st, Alex had been in the NFL for a lot longer than Kap. Granted the time in Harbaugh's system is the same, but experience reading NFL defenses benefits him greatly.

2nd, Alex had all of his receivers healthy, Kap only had Boldin and VD.

3rd, Alex rarely threw balls into tight coverage and therefore had to move on to other progressions. Kap trusts his rifle arm to get the ball into tight windows.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by thl408:
Found it (from the Greg Roman thread). These stats were compiled on Dec 7 of this season.

Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it would be correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution looks in this offense. My claim is that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1


^^That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed.

Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games of the 2013 season with Kap as QB):
Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....


So this is comparing when Smith had a full offseason to prepare as the starter versus Kap as a full season to prepare as a starter. It's not the offense that causes this whacked out pass distribution, it's the QB. The reason I took the 2012 season and not the 2011 season with AS as QB is that the 2011 offseason was shortened due to the owner's lockout. Jim was new in town and I was not sure if he had time to fully implement his offense. By having a full offseason coming into 2012, and with AS as the clear cut starter, this made me use 2012 AS games.

To me, this says one of two things:
1) When AS is the QB, Jim likes to call AR plays that distributes the ball around, whereas when Kap is QB Jim wants to call AR plays that create a top heavy distribution. (
2) AS sees the field better and uses all his route runners, whereas Kap has tunnel vision. (quite feasible imo for a young QB)

I think this comparison is a bit flawed though, for a few reasons.

1st, Alex had been in the NFL for a lot longer than Kap. Granted the time in Harbaugh's system is the same, but experience reading NFL defenses benefits him greatly.

2nd, Alex had all of his receivers healthy, Kap only had Boldin and VD.

3rd, Alex rarely threw balls into tight coverage and therefore had to move on to other progressions. Kap trusts his rifle arm to get the ball into tight windows.

I think your first point supports what I am saying. That Alex sees the field better and therefore will distribute the ball. Can't dispute your second point. Your third point is valid. The main point I was trying to make with that post is that Harbaugh's offense has progressions and is not using an AR scheme as its foundation. Alex distributed the ball around by being able to see the field.

For those that say Harbaugh's passing attack is AR based, they should admit that when Smith was the QB, Harbaugh called AR plays that distributed the ball around to many WRs. Then when Kap became QB, Harbaugh only calls AR plays for VD and Boldin. I do not find this reasonable, which is why I say Harbaugh's offense is not AR based.

Ok, Thl, thank you. Sometimes over the last 5-6 weeks this conversation has drifted slightly into the weeds...your note of someone taking one play as an example of what kap did or didn't do. My take of this yr, trying to summarize it is this:

GB, wk 1: kap given green lite, firehouse football all the way, run whenever open and throw if you can. Not too sure there is any defense that would work well against kap in that game.

Games 2, 3. Coach H put the brakes on kap and said "pocket passing, bubba". Kap seemed to be lost in INDY and SEA games, and then:

We played a bunch of weak sister teams, and there were lot of AR plays...kap was learning, but it came slowly. We and he did fine until we ran into two more ELITE teams. The AR program and kap didn't do well there, it looked occasionally like comedy hour. He definitely wasn't ready for the big time,ie, ELITE teams.

Then came SEA #2 at home, and kap looked, oh, let's say, settled in a bit more. AR plays in that game for sure, not much progression plays.

Then CARDs at AZ. We looked like a very good team, and frankly, either team could have won and deserved it. Kap looked a lot more comfortable, and played his best game I thot .

Then last week at GB, more AR, but definitely as shown, some progressions. Whatever, kap has mentally got GB psyched out and they kind of looked like game 1. ARodgers played great, and in the end, again either team could have won, but our game was managed ( I think...maybe luck) to get the ball with 5 mins to go in game of subzero weather. GB obviously pre-game planned to stop frank and did most of game til the end we he got two really nice 1st downs. We win in absolute crap conditions, our QB looks excellent, and ARodgers played like the Texans at the Alamo.

Summary: combination of 3 all pro receivers now together healthy, kap coming on, has regained cocksureness, and is no longer intimidated. His progressions are more in number each week, and going into Carolina, we look ready. Sure a different summary than I would have written after first two game loss and then the 2nd two losses. Kap, AR sometimes, but coming on with progressions. This sure explains the 17 pass attempt games, and why untested receivers were not used against weak sister teams when we had 20-30 pt leads. To date we have won with overwhelming talent , better than opponents. Now we play an opponent that I still think we are better than at each position, slightly, but equal at Qb. But again, this game can be won by either side. I now am feeling better about HaRo because I understand what has been discussed for 6 weeks(more likely, almost 3 months), a whole lot better.

Thl, your ability to not take sides (yet present your take on physically what happened) has been most helpful, and I am, as noted, feeling better about HaRo, in that their hand was forced to play AR. Fascinating...and thanks.

Originally posted by thl408:
Personally, I don't even feel it's right to compare him to other QBs his age. The reason he slipped in the draft was because of his mental readiness due to coming out of a college style offense at Reno. He was raw as can be and that caused GMs to shy away from him, selecting QBs like Dalton and Ponder before Kap. 2012 was an outlier to me as he took the league by storm. So I will just compare Kap from September 2013 to Kap of January 2014.

Jonnydel has shown some examples of his ability to work through progressions. I am dont' know what jonnydel thinks is the most improved aspect of Kap's game, but to me his most improved aspect is pocket presence. For us that have seen every 49er game this season, one of the things Kap struggled with mightily was his ability to sense pressure in the pocket. Below is a play I illustrated after the week 3 IND game, but now that I can make GIFs, I want to re-visit the play.

Game situation seen below: After the snap, Kap drops back and scans the field (first read is to the right side of the formation). The right side of the OL is serving pancakes and the left side has things under control.

[snip image]

Below: For no explicable reason, Kap decides it's time to bail out of the pocket. He rolls left. Vance is running the red arrow.

[snip image]

Below: Because Kap scrambles left, the pocket breaks down since Iupati can't be asked to know what Kap is doing (back turned to play).

snip image]

1 yard scramble

[snip image]

This is just one play and one of the things with using film to support a point is that we can't just take one play and say "this is what always happens". But if you've seen every 49er game, try to remember back to weeks 1-5ish and how panicked Kap was in the pocket (well maybe not week 1). This could be a big reason why Dilfer says things like, "Kap is remedial once his first read is covered".

I was terrified when I saw tendencies like this early in the year. This is typical Michael Vick crap. I was not upset that Kap missed Vance open. I was upset that Kap never gave the play a chance by standing tall in the pocket, to see Vance get open. One of the biggest struggles for a scrambling QB is knowing when to scramble. Guys like Peyton and Brady don't have to worry about this as scrambling is not option #2, or #3, or #4. For guys like Kap, RW, RG3, Cam, they have to weigh passing options before resorting to scrambling. Kap has shown remarkable improvement in this area in my observation.

Other areas of improvement are being able to float a pass over the LB and in front of the CB and just overall consistency.

I have watched all the games and my impression is pretty much the same as yours (what I bolded above). I think for a few games after the first Seahawks game that Roman/Harbaugh did call for more AR to make it easier for Kap to read the defense before and during the play. By the time the 9ers played the Seahawks the second time, though, I think they were well on their way to taking off the training wheels - of course, getting Crabtree back was huge. (Incidentally, I think that beating the Seahawks was THE psychological turning point for the whole team - after that game, I think they really began to believe they had a real shot at going the whole way - I think they came to believe that if they play a good game they can beat anybody).

Thought I would weigh in on Kap's development through this season.

I really think it comes down to the receivers Kap had early in the season and the coaching staff putting an emphasis on trying to stay in the pocket. I don't think Kap trusted his receivers early in the season to get open. He had some reason to believe this, but there were also many instances of receivers getting open. So somewhere along the line losing some of his best targets from last season somewhat lowered his confidence in them.

But I also think the coaching staff put a bit of emphasis on going through reads and staying in the pocket. This is all to protect the QB since no coach wants to see their franchise QB get injured on a scramble, much less a read option type play (unless you're Shannahan...). I really believe this lead to Kap kind of "overthinking" the offense early in the season. It's pretty much the equivalent of a sophomore slump. We all know when people try too hard to do something to perfection things can get all screwed up. I can relate it to my golf game. When I'm out there having fun and not thinking about it too much, I tend to play much better than when I try to make sure my swing is mechanically perfect.

So when you put these two things together it could create a perfect storm of indecisiveness, bad decisions and overall poor play.

That being said, we've all seen that Kap can be a pocket passer and go through his progressions. He's a very young QB that has, by and large, played at a pretty high level. There have been lapses, but that should be expected from a guy coming out of Nevada, especially given the system at Nevada. If he can continue his development, I see no reason why he can't be one of the premier QBs in the league. He's got all kinds of arm with accuracy to go along with it, is very smart and has ridiculous athleticism.