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2013 - Wild Card Round: Thoughts after rewatching the game...

Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB taken in round 2 or 3 next year. Nor would I be surprised if he (Kaepernick) is not extended and gets to FA (at which time they may franchise him, depending on what happens between now and then) and isn't even on the team in 2016.

Just because other team's are stupid with their QB salaries doesn't mean the 49ers will be. If we have learned anything about this franchise and front office is they are smart with their cap. Which is the only reason the team is as good as it is right now and you are talking about Kaepernick deserving a top contract. I predict they break the trend of going full retard just to retain one player. That doesn't mean he is going elsewhere, he may stay for a more team-friendly contract, but they are not going to clean house (they are almost at the cap for next year already and have other important players to extend that would ALL have to be let go and replaced with rookies and minimum salary FA's if they extend him to the kind of contract you are talking about) and make the team worse to keep one player. QB or not.

Do you know it will cost more than 15 mill to franchise Kaep in 2015?

Do you think Jed will want to see a brand new stadium filled to only 70%? That's what a 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB can bring in if he's lucky.
[ Edited by ayetee on Jan 7, 2014 at 10:13 PM ]
Originally posted by ayetee:
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB taken in round 2 or 3 next year. Nor would I be surprised if he (Kaepernick) is not extended and gets to FA (at which time they may franchise him, depending on what happens between now and then) and isn't even on the team in 2016.

Just because other team's are stupid with their QB salaries doesn't mean the 49ers will be. If we have learned anything about this franchise and front office is they are smart with their cap. Which is the only reason the team is as good as it is right now and you are talking about Kaepernick deserving a top contract. I predict they break the trend of going full retard just to retain one player. That doesn't mean he is going elsewhere, he may stay for a more team-friendly contract, but they are not going to clean house (they are almost at the cap for next year already and have other important players to extend that would ALL have to be let go and replaced with rookies and minimum salary FA's if they extend him to the kind of contract you are talking about) and make the team worse to keep one player. QB or not.

Do you know it will cost more than 15 mill to franchise Kaep in 2015?

Do you think Jed will want to see a brand new stadium filled to only 70%? That's what a 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB can bring in if he's lucky.

Kaep?
Originally posted by RabidNiner:
Originally posted by ayetee:
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB taken in round 2 or 3 next year. Nor would I be surprised if he (Kaepernick) is not extended and gets to FA (at which time they may franchise him, depending on what happens between now and then) and isn't even on the team in 2016.

Just because other team's are stupid with their QB salaries doesn't mean the 49ers will be. If we have learned anything about this franchise and front office is they are smart with their cap. Which is the only reason the team is as good as it is right now and you are talking about Kaepernick deserving a top contract. I predict they break the trend of going full retard just to retain one player. That doesn't mean he is going elsewhere, he may stay for a more team-friendly contract, but they are not going to clean house (they are almost at the cap for next year already and have other important players to extend that would ALL have to be let go and replaced with rookies and minimum salary FA's if they extend him to the kind of contract you are talking about) and make the team worse to keep one player. QB or not.

Do you know it will cost more than 15 mill to franchise Kaep in 2015?

Do you think Jed will want to see a brand new stadium filled to only 70%? That's what a 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB can bring in if he's lucky.

Kaep?

Kaep WILL fill out the new stadium. A new 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB, no way.
Originally posted by ayetee:
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB taken in round 2 or 3 next year. Nor would I be surprised if he (Kaepernick) is not extended and gets to FA (at which time they may franchise him, depending on what happens between now and then) and isn't even on the team in 2016.

Just because other team's are stupid with their QB salaries doesn't mean the 49ers will be. If we have learned anything about this franchise and front office is they are smart with their cap. Which is the only reason the team is as good as it is right now and you are talking about Kaepernick deserving a top contract. I predict they break the trend of going full retard just to retain one player. That doesn't mean he is going elsewhere, he may stay for a more team-friendly contract, but they are not going to clean house (they are almost at the cap for next year already and have other important players to extend that would ALL have to be let go and replaced with rookies and minimum salary FA's if they extend him to the kind of contract you are talking about) and make the team worse to keep one player. QB or not.

Do you know it will cost more than 15 mill to franchise Kaep in 2015?

Do you think Jed will want to see a brand new stadium filled to only 70%? That's what a 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB can bring in if he's lucky.

Maybe he is Mike Singletary? He is the only person I can think of that thinks QB's are not important.
[ Edited by kronik on Jan 7, 2014 at 10:33 PM ]
Originally posted by ayetee:
Kaep WILL fill out the new stadium. A new 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB, no way.

I think Kaep (2nd round pick) filled the stadium pretty well in his first year as a starter.
Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by ayetee:
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB taken in round 2 or 3 next year. Nor would I be surprised if he (Kaepernick) is not extended and gets to FA (at which time they may franchise him, depending on what happens between now and then) and isn't even on the team in 2016.

Just because other team's are stupid with their QB salaries doesn't mean the 49ers will be. If we have learned anything about this franchise and front office is they are smart with their cap. Which is the only reason the team is as good as it is right now and you are talking about Kaepernick deserving a top contract. I predict they break the trend of going full retard just to retain one player. That doesn't mean he is going elsewhere, he may stay for a more team-friendly contract, but they are not going to clean house (they are almost at the cap for next year already and have other important players to extend that would ALL have to be let go and replaced with rookies and minimum salary FA's if they extend him to the kind of contract you are talking about) and make the team worse to keep one player. QB or not.

Do you know it will cost more than 15 mill to franchise Kaep in 2015?

Do you think Jed will want to see a brand new stadium filled to only 70%? That's what a 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB can bring in if he's lucky.

Maybe he is Mike Singletary? He is the only person I can think of that thinks QB's are not important.

Are you saying Mike knows NOTHING about football? Then you're insulting Mike who definitely knows defense even though he was in way over his head as a Head Coach.
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB taken in round 2 or 3 next year. Nor would I be surprised if he (Kaepernick) is not extended and gets to FA (at which time they may franchise him, depending on what happens between now and then) and isn't even on the team in 2016.

Just because other team's are stupid with their QB salaries doesn't mean the 49ers will be. If we have learned anything about this franchise and front office is they are smart with their cap. Which is the only reason the team is as good as it is right now and you are talking about Kaepernick deserving a top contract. I predict they break the trend of going full retard just to retain one player. That doesn't mean he is going elsewhere, he may stay for a more team-friendly contract, but they are not going to clean house (they are almost at the cap for next year already and have other important players to extend that would ALL have to be let go and replaced with rookies and minimum salary FA's if they extend him to the kind of contract you are talking about) and make the team worse to keep one player. QB or not.

You crazy.

Kap ain't going anywhere. That is the hardest position is sports to fill and you don't let one walk away. Kap is the exception, not the rule on how you get yourself a franchise QB.

Even if he averages over 20 per, he won't count that high toward the cap. They'll backload the hell out of it to years when the cap is bigger. They will let Rogers and Goodwin walk and probably Whitner too. This is already in their plans. They know the score. It'll happen in Seattle pretty quick here too with Sherman and Wilson.
Originally posted by ayetee:
Do you know it will cost more than 15 mill to franchise Kaep in 2015?

Do you think Jed will want to see a brand new stadium filled to only 70%? That's what a 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB can bring in if he's lucky.

A.) Yes. But that is not next year. That would be the 2015 season.

B.) Again, Kaepernick will be here next year no matter what as he is under contract. A rookie in this year's draft wouldn't play unless he gets hurt. By the time Kap would be gone the new QB would be a 2nd or 3rd year player.

C.) That being said Levi's Stadium would be sold out for the next 10 years even if we had the Oakland Raiders roster. Candlestick was never even close to only 70% sold when the team was at its worst of the last 40 years during the Erickson/Nolan-era. Jed is not stupid and knows this.

D.) This team would be quite good as is with almost any decent QB. Not as good as it is, but the team is a complete team, not "a QB and a bunch of guys" like the Patriots/Saints have been on occasion in some recent years.
[ Edited by Gavintech on Jan 8, 2014 at 12:30 PM ]
Some of you buy way too much into the whole QB whisperer mystique of harbaugh. Do you honestly think we'll hit on a superbowl caliber QB everytime the QBs rookie contract is up? You're living in lala land if you believe that. Kap WILL get paid and if you think otherwise I have a bridge to sell you.

Kap is the future of the franchise and the niners know this. Do I think he's gonna get a Joe flacco deal? I don't think he does even if he wins the SB. But to think we're just going to jump from QB to QB every few years is plain dumb.
Originally posted by Dsoto87:
Some of you buy way too much into the whole QB whisperer mystique of harbaugh. Do you honestly think we'll hit on a superbowl caliber QB everytime the QBs rookie contract is up? You're living in lala land if you believe that. Kap WILL get paid and if you think otherwise I have a bridge to sell you.

Kap is the future of the franchise and the niners know this. Do I think he's gonna get a Joe flacco deal? I don't think he does even if he wins the SB. But to think we're just going to jump from QB to QB every few years is plain dumb.

maybe they think its like college where you get a new qb every 3 years
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by crabman82:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by crabman82:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by 49ersHeroine:
Crabs resigning is going to be a long shot. That's putting it lightly! We have to sign Kap and Aldon Smith. Whose contracts are up in a year. Which is going to be top dollar for both. Kap will sign a 100million contract, Aldon Smith will be paid the highest contract for an OLB.. Crabs is going to be looking for Fitz, Megatron type cash the $75-100million contract. So I'm enjoying Crabs for the time being. Unless he signs for cheap; which he won't!


Honestly...unless he wins the SB Kap ain't getting 100 mil. Aldon has hurt his value as well.

I think what it may come down to is Crab or Iupati. Halfway through last year, it was Iupati. No question. Not anymore.

If you see the 49ers take a massive guard in the first 3 rounds next year....don't be surprised if Iupati isn't resigned.

disagree on 100 mil thing, cutler and romo have 2 playoff wins between them and cracked the 100 mill barrier. matt ryan too only has 1 playoff win. stafford got a new deal aswell, cant remember if it was over 100 mil though. kaepernick has 3 playoff wins in 4 tries. whether we think he is worth it or not does not matter, the market dictates he is worth over 100 mil


...and 1.5 seasons as a starter and many struggles this year. He didn't put up anything close to the numbers the guys you are listing did.

I think he will be expensive, but only a SB will make him THAT expensive.

if we disagree, thats cool. players get pay checks in the regular season, but they make their money in the post season. no doubt in my mind he gets over 100 mil. 2nd contract is usually the biggest for nfl players and we've also had him on a bargain like wilson in seattle. agents will be posturing for a little back pay for that aswell.


Maybe I should expand what I mean.

He could very well get 100 mill, but I don't think it's be over 5 years. He's not getting 20 per. If he gets 100, it IMO will be over 7 or 8 years and will have some kind of escape for the 49ers.

Kaep's contract situation is a peculiar one because the Cutler and Romo deals strike as suitable market comparables. They are recent, and they are probably in that similar category of guys. While you could make the case the numbers don't add up through the air, the winning numbers, the playmaking ability he exudes, and his age and upside are all huge pluses. When negotiating salary you probably need to ask yourself, would you take Cutler or Romo over Kaepernick? For me that is an unquestioned no. If that's the case, how do you make the argument he doesn't deserve comparable compensation.

Further, think of all the jerseys, T-shirt sales and other goodies he generates for the 49ers.

For some reason, I have 6 years and $96 million in my head, which strikes a good dollar and a good length. The 6 years gives the 49ers some opportunity to play with the cap, it solidifies Kaep and allows him another big payday. But even that value might be low.

If one wants to under-estimate the value of a franchise QB, consider the impact the addition of Peyton had on the Broncos and the drafting of Luck has done for Indy (interestingly, talk about a great deal for both teams all things considered). Now imagine a released Matt Schaub starting for the 49ers.

I think if Kaep isn't willing to take a smaller deal now because of his smaller sample size, then the team has to make him wait 1 more year before franchising and dealing with him then.
[ Edited by bzborow1 on Jan 8, 2014 at 1:09 PM ]
Kick Kap in the balls and trade him to the Texans for their #1 pick
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by ayetee:
Do you know it will cost more than 15 mill to franchise Kaep in 2015?

Do you think Jed will want to see a brand new stadium filled to only 70%? That's what a 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB can bring in if he's lucky.

A.) Yes. But that is not next year. That would be the 2015 season.

B.) Again, Kaepernick will be here next year no matter what as he is under contract. A rookie in this year's draft wouldn't play unless he gets hurt. By the time Kap would be gone the new QB would be a 2nd or 3rd year player.

C.) That being said Levi's Stadium would be sold out for the next 10 years even if we had the Oakland Raiders roster. Candlestick was never even close to only 70% sold when the team was at its worst of the last 40 years during the Erickson/Nolan-era. Jed is not stupid and knows this.

D.) This team would be quite good as is with almost any decent QB. Not as good as it is, but the team is a complete team, not "a QB and a bunch of guys" like the Patriots/Saints have been on occasion in some recent years.

There's no winning on an argument like this until the retruns are actually in. But FWIW, I do agree with you.
I do not see the Niners paying Kaepernick Flacco, even Romo/Cutler type money. At least not based on what he's shown thus far. Preference and potential aside, he is not a developed package yet. He is surrounded by an excellent team. They carry him to a large extent; not vice versa. The other QBs who have cashed in are much more polished products. A finished product, so to speak. One may be enamored with Kap's potential and greater ceiling and I certainly am, but he's not going to command that kind of money until he possesses the complete repertoire.
The Niners will attempt to lock him in at the conclusion of this season with an attractive package; meaning long-term, but very cap friendly and a lot of "show me" written into it. One which will give them plenty of outs if he doesn't pan out. For whatever reason.
I predict Kaepernick will take such a deal. Because it will be fair and because Kaepernick is full of proving himself.
The Niners are finacially savvy; they will not destroy a complete roster for one guy. They buy themselves time if they see a problem looming and look for alternatives.
Originally posted by kronik:
Maybe he is Mike Singletary? He is the only person I can think of that thinks QB's are not important.

A.) Singletary never said that. Its not my fault the less intelligent among us don't know the difference between that and what he actually said.

B.) I never said that either.
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by ayetee:
Do you know it will cost more than 15 mill to franchise Kaep in 2015?

Do you think Jed will want to see a brand new stadium filled to only 70%? That's what a 2nd or 3rd round rookie QB can bring in if he's lucky.

A.) Yes. But that is not next year. That would be the 2015 season.

B.) Again, Kaepernick will be here next year no matter what as he is under contract. A rookie in this year's draft wouldn't play unless he gets hurt. By the time Kap would be gone the new QB would be a 2nd or 3rd year player.

C.) That being said Levi's Stadium would be sold out for the next 10 years even if we had the Oakland Raiders roster. Candlestick was never even close to only 70% sold when the team was at its worst of the last 40 years during the Erickson/Nolan-era. Jed is not stupid and knows this.

D.) This team would be quite good as is with almost any decent QB. Not as good as it is, but the team is a complete team, not "a QB and a bunch of guys" like the Patriots/Saints have been on occasion in some recent years.

There's no winning on an argument like this until the retruns are actually in. But FWIW, I do agree with you.
I do not see the Niners paying Kaepernick Flacco, even Romo/Cutler type money. At least not based on what he's shown thus far. Preference and potential aside, he is not a developed package yet. He is surrounded by an excellent team. They carry him to a large extent; not vice versa. The other QBs who have cashed in are much more polished products. A finished product, so to speak. One may be enamored with Kap's potential and greater ceiling and I certainly am, but he's not going to command that kind of money until he possesses the complete repertoire.
The Niners will attempt to lock him in at the conclusion of this season with an attractive package; meaning long-term, but very cap friendly and a lot of "show me" written into it. One which will give them plenty of outs if he doesn't pan out. For whatever reason.
I predict Kaepernick will take such a deal. Because it will be fair and because Kaepernick is full of proving himself.
The Niners are finacially savvy; they will not destroy a complete roster for one guy. They buy themselves time if they see a problem looming and look for alternatives.

Kap is already better than Cutler/Romo. He's carried this team on the biggest of stages. Proven himself a clutch player and efficient passer. A deal less than Cutler/Romo, unfortunately, is too low for his current value. I think that's more of a commentary on the ridiculousness on their contracts, than what Kap deserves. Unfortunately, the market value for mediocre QBs like Romo/Cutler means Kap's gonna paid. But our office is savvy, so I bet there are a lot of incentive driven numbers like you said.