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2013 - Wild Card Round: Thoughts after rewatching the game...

Originally posted by crabman82:
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
if we disagree, thats cool. players get pay checks in the regular season, but they make their money in the post season. no doubt in my mind he gets over 100 mil. 2nd contract is usually the biggest for nfl players and we've also had him on a bargain like wilson in seattle. agents will be posturing for a little back pay for that aswell.

If he gets a contract like you are talking about the 49ers are going to be mediocre at best for a long time. The defense is going to be bad and no matter how good Kap ends up being the offense will not be enough to make up for it.

A lot of the teams you mentioned have already seen what it looks like when 1 player, on a team of 53, takes up 20% of the total salary/cap space. It ain't pretty (although it may be exciting for a little while to have a QB that puts up big numbers).

thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.


Correct.

I just don't think he'll get 20 mil per.
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

This. The window of not haivng to pay our qb big money is closing. They are going to have to pay up. Same for Crabs and Aldon. Do folks realize Aldon's numbers? His agent would be crazy not to demand him to be the highest paid OLB in the NFL. Of course they can counter with his off the field issues. To me Iupati, Brown, and Whitner will all be victims of these 3 guys cashing in. Shoot Brady took a pay cut and the team still didn't retain Welker. Players not falling for the okie doke unless it's a seasoned veteran for the most part.
If we win the superbowl Kaep is gonna get that 20M a year, he will have a good case to get paid more than the Romos, Ryans and Cutlers of the world. Probably looking at a Joe Flacco type contract
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by crabman82:
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
if we disagree, thats cool. players get pay checks in the regular season, but they make their money in the post season. no doubt in my mind he gets over 100 mil. 2nd contract is usually the biggest for nfl players and we've also had him on a bargain like wilson in seattle. agents will be posturing for a little back pay for that aswell.

If he gets a contract like you are talking about the 49ers are going to be mediocre at best for a long time. The defense is going to be bad and no matter how good Kap ends up being the offense will not be enough to make up for it.

A lot of the teams you mentioned have already seen what it looks like when 1 player, on a team of 53, takes up 20% of the total salary/cap space. It ain't pretty (although it may be exciting for a little while to have a QB that puts up big numbers).

thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.


Correct.

I just don't think he'll get 20 mil per.

yeah its debatable where his annual average will come in. 15, 17 19, 22 per, whatever it is its going to be signifficant.
Originally posted by valrod33:
If we win the superbowl Kaep is gonna get that 20M a year, he will have a good case to get paid more than the Romos, Ryans and Cutlers of the world. Probably looking at a Joe Flacco type contract


That was my one caviat. If he wins the Super Bowl, all bets on his yearly salary are off.
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB taken in round 2 or 3 next year. Nor would I be surprised if he (Kaepernick) is not extended and gets to FA (at which time they may franchise him, depending on what happens between now and then) and isn't even on the team in 2016.

Just because other team's are stupid with their QB salaries doesn't mean the 49ers will be. If we have learned anything about this franchise and front office is they are smart with their cap. Which is the only reason the team is as good as it is right now and you are talking about Kaepernick deserving a top contract. I predict they break the trend of going full retard just to retain one player. That doesn't mean he is going elsewhere, he may stay for a more team-friendly contract, but they are not going to clean house (they are almost at the cap for next year already and have other important players to extend that would ALL have to be let go and replaced with rookies and minimum salary FA's if they extend him to the kind of contract you are talking about) and make the team worse to keep one player. QB or not.
[ Edited by Gavintech on Jan 7, 2014 at 3:01 PM ]
In the next CBA owners need to negotiate a per player cap, something like the NBA where your highest paid player cannot exceed X% of the salary cap, and be able to spread the remaining cap $$$ around to more guys.

The Players Association would fight it tooth and nail even though it would benefit 99% of the union's members. But something like that is on the horizon. It has to be and in reality I think most NFLPA members would support it because it would be good for them.
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
thats market value. teams are free to not offer such deals and find alternatives. they choose not to because the alternatives are often worse. everyone wants to think their guy will take a discount. you can see posts about wilson just the same over at seahawks.nut. its just not realistic, these guys have agents and they know how to do their jobs. its new to us because we havent had to dish out this type of cash for a qb in over 10 years. i dont disagree that the team could weaken overall in terms of talent level, but it doesnt make it any less likely that kaepernick is going to for less. at the end of the day its a business. romo, stafford, cutler, ryan, flacco were all making pretty decent money prior to their new deals. kaepernick hasnt even been afforded that ability yet, they gotta take care of him and will.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB taken in round 2 or 3 next year. Nor would I be surprised if he (Kaepernick) is not extended and gets to FA (at which time they may franchise him, depending on what happens between now and then) and isn't even on the team in 2016.

Just because other team's are stupid with their QB salaries doesn't mean the 49ers will be. If we have learned anything about this franchise and front office is they are smart with their cap. Which is the only reason the team is as good as it is right now and you are talking about Kaepernick deserving a top contract. I predict they break the trend of going full retard just to retain one player. That doesn't mean he is going elsewhere, he may stay for a more team-friendly contract, but they are not going to clean house (they are almost at the cap for next year already and have other important players to extend that would ALL have to be let go and replaced with rookies and minimum salary FA's if they extend him to the kind of contract you are talking about) and make the team worse to keep one player. QB or not.

yeah i dont see any of the bold happening and thats where we disagree. it took 10 years to get a qb here, they arent gonna let him walk. infact as of the first of the year they're now able to talk contracts with guys drafted from 2011, i'll bet he has a new contract before the 2014 regular season begins. time will tell if your opinion is right or if mine is.
This will be Kaep if we win the SB
Qb contracts should be exempt from the salary cap IMO.
Originally posted by AXEGRINDER:
Qb contracts should be exempt from the salary cap IMO.

at this point its not a bad suggestion. they're exempt from contact on the field.
Originally posted by crabman82:
at this point its not a bad suggestion. they're exempt from contact on the field.

And if they go down so does the team more often than not.
Originally posted by AXEGRINDER:
Qb contracts should be exempt from the salary cap IMO.

If the QB is the 53rd highest paid player it is. :)

But that is a really good idea. Or give team's one contract, regardless of position, that will allow the team to go over the cap by a certian amount (say $10 million). But it would only apply to your own draft picks that are eligible for extension after at least playing out their first contract, players acquired via trade that have been on the team for at least one season (would take away the sign and trade phenomenon in the NBA), or free agents signed that have been on the team for at least two consecutive seasons.
Originally posted by crabman82:
yeah i dont see any of the bold happening and thats where we disagree. it took 10 years to get a qb here, they arent gonna let him walk. infact as of the first of the year they're now able to talk contracts with guys drafted from 2011, i'll bet he has a new contract before the 2014 regular season begins. time will tell if your opinion is right or if mine is.

You wouldn't be surprised if he plays out next year without being extended, whether he is then resigned/franchised or goes somewhere else afterwards? It is almost a given that will happen if you think he won't settle for a more reasonable deal. The cap situation next year is worse than it has been in the while, they would have to make MAJOR changes to the roster to even be able to extend him to an Alex Smith type contract before the end of next season.
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Originally posted by crabman82:
yeah i dont see any of the bold happening and thats where we disagree. it took 10 years to get a qb here, they arent gonna let him walk. infact as of the first of the year they're now able to talk contracts with guys drafted from 2011, i'll bet he has a new contract before the 2014 regular season begins. time will tell if your opinion is right or if mine is.

You wouldn't be surprised if he plays out next year without being extended, whether he is then resigned/franchised or goes somewhere else afterwards? It is almost a given that will happen if you think he won't settle for a more reasonable deal. The cap situation next year is worse than it has been in the while, they would have to make MAJOR changes to the roster to even be able to extend him to an Alex Smith type contract before the end of next season.

If an extension is signed at the end of this season, what kind of terms will we be looking at? 12 mill x 5 years without a SB win is totally possible, but if we get our 6th, we may be looking at a record setting contract. It's not my money so I would love to see Kaep brings home the prize.

If the 9ers just let Kaep play out the last year of his four-year rookie contract then what do they do after that? Franchising him for an additional year will probably cost 15 mill+ for that fifth year. Then another 15 mill x 5 years? How much do you think it will cost to sign him as a free-agent if we win our 6th in either one of the next TWO years?

Another concern is that we will probably NEED Kaep around for the 9ers to sell all those seats in our new stadium. Without a firm QB commitment, the marketing guys will scream bloody murder for sure.
.
As a finance guy, I will definitely get a contract in place at the end of this season if we don't win out. I will enjoy watching Baalke and Jed worry about it if we do win the SB. Just the thought of that puts a big smile on my face.
[ Edited by ayetee on Jan 7, 2014 at 9:56 PM ]